Open 441 - Chosen Mafia (OVER)

[inte]

sometimes i get nervous

[inte]

rc you should enjoy near conf-town status

[rapidcanyon]

Okay, we'll take this slow. I don't want to rush into anything. If I get Eidolon mislynched, that'll be quite a lot of apologies I'll owe her.

[McStab]

Time for an experiment

vote:whiskers

That's L-1. Inte please don't unvote for the next little while.

[Eidolon]

Well the first part of RC's case is something that is hard to respond to. I have no idea why grey gave those statements about me. It was possibly to appease rc. It was possibly to go without having a firm opinion on me so he could either mislynch or buddy to me if the sitaution called for that. But I really have no way to respond to this besides speculation.

When looking at something that a confirmed scum said, we know that much of it is filled with wifom and cannot be taken as completely credible. For instance I thought RGF was surely chosen for the way that Grey kept going after him, but rgf was just vanilla. It does give us ideas, but cannot be used as a main FOS on someone.

But let's look more closely at his posts, not just from the perspective of what he said, which is usually speculative at best, but at some of the patterns that he displays. Grey said very little of whiskers throughout his analysis day 2 with his only remark being that "town reads on both mcstab and whiskers"

Let's look at his posts from day two: 132, 283, 291, 293, 295, 298, 356.


Let's look at how many times he comments on or quotes someone else:

RGF II
Mcstab IIIIII
Whiskers I
RC IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
Eidolon IIIIIIIII
inte/ crypto I

I think this is more credible information than speculative wifom about who he called scum/town. Why was he so comfortable commenting on me, Rc, and mcstab, but left whiskers and inte completely untouched? Inte was barely in the game, so that is reasonable, but whiskers was there.

Let's look at his post in 291. This is what he said in regards to RC flipping chosen:

If you end up flipping Chosen, then I'll look at Eid, and I'd probably need to look at McStab as well. As the leader of your wagon, he'd naturally fall under suspicion. I find it unlikely that I'll see anything other then a scum flip however.

Why me and mcstab? Why not whiskers? Whiskers was questioning you initially, calling you scummy and buddying with you at the same time. I think that's more suspicious than an outright attack because she's leaving scum motivated options open. (posts 114, 119, 176 ) She's being sooo opportunistic with her posts here. The fact that grey disregards her completely is another tell.

I think avoidance of certain members shows a certain reluctance on bringing too much attention to that person, or reluctance in showing a connection when talking to that person.

Mafia often want to separate from their partners.

The easiest way they do that is to avoid them outright.

Granted, this is analysis of a confirmed scums posts, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. We shouldn't lynch whiskers on this alone. It should only be supporting evidence to other scumtells that whiskers herself has given, which I've already explained but am willing to go into further detail on later.

I'll respond to the third part of RC's case a bit later.

[Eidolon]

However we need to be careful today and not rush to a lynch. It could be inte for all i know though i'm leaning strongly on whiskers. I also have a response for whisker's response to me in regards to grey more likely being chosen and how that is completely untrue.

[Eidolon]

Okay. I don't have the quoting deal completely figured out on this site but i'll try to make it look acceptable as i respond to some of rc's points.

3) Eidolon's panic at being tied to Grey

a) DENIAL
Let's pay really careful attention to what is happenning here:

I say that the scumteam are Eidolon and Grey.

I made my case against Eidolon in detail.

I think she and Grey are the scum

. Grey's assertion that he thinks Eidolon and I are both scum or both town fits perfectly with him knowing that Eido is scum and I, town. If I am lynched and flip town, Grey can say that he was mistaken and that Eido and I were town. If Eido is lynched and flips scum, grey can push a lynch on me. This gives him those options. Grey never addresses the fact that Eidolon is pushing my lynch while saying she has a townread on me.

Whiskers wonders if it is an Eido-Stab scumteam.

So-- cool, Eido/Stab scumteam?

I discount the possibility by asking whiskers:

If it is an eido/stab scumteam, would a good player like McStab be openly supportive of her?

In essence, I continue to push my Eido-grey scumteam theory by refuting whisker's Eido-Stab scumteam theory.

Note now how Eidolon's next response attempts to push it under the rug and not even consider my arguments that it is her and Grey. She defends why it is not her and McStab. She doesn't address the core of my argument at all.

Okay. I misread some of your posts. I knew there was talk of a me/mcstab scumteam, so i responded to that. I hadn't seen or read clearly the part about me/grey scumteam. It's not too unreasonable given the fact that you make long wall posts and when i'm trying to catch up i sometimes skim over some posts so that i can give a response. I don't really see how that is a tell anyway. I didn't even respond to it so it obviously wasn't something that had my focus meaning i wasn't worried about it.

b) LINKING other people with Grey

She first wonders if it was RGF and Grey. Then she wonders if it was whiskers and grey. At that point, she had made up her mind to bus Grey so was looking to see who else she could make look guilty.

Based on all this evidence, I am going to

VOTE: Eidolon

(And this is not even counting her push on lynching me - that is further evidence. I made pages and pages of analysis based on that which she just ignored)

Whiskers did something scummy and i explained WHY. i had multiple posts about why i thought she was scummy. So there's no reason why i SHOULDN'T change my read in that situation. It doesn't show scum motivation because i had a legit reason as to why whiskers seemed scummier.

Also, at that point, mcstab made a post about rgf possibly being chosen. It made more sense to me that grey would go after a chosen rather than his buddy so that helped me steer away from rgf.

So that is not even a tell. Changing opinions is not scummy when there is a reason to do so. It's only scummy when you are changing opinions without valid reasoning or having one opinion and doing something else (ie whiskers reaction to you, saying you are scum in one post and then trying to coach you in the next.)

Also in regards to a post you made a bit ago, remember that when I was telling mcstab to look at grey/rgf I was specifically pointing to grey's posts. he was the source of my scum read on BOTH OF THEM. The fact that i pushed his lynch at that point should show you that I had town motivations.

[Eidolon]

I'm not into getting into this over-anal back and forth point by point argument with whiskers, so i'll just respond to a few things that she said.

I often nitpick. You and RC know full well how much I nitpick. RC has seen me nitpick cases apart until they fall down.

So she admits to nitpicking often. Then she should NOT use that as justification to back down from grey suspicion and not anyone elses. The point was that she singled someone out, she singled A SCUM OUT in backtracking on her read on him, not whether or not the nitpicking was scummy.

I'd like to reiterate the fact that whiskers was avoiding my case because she didn't want a grey lynch.

Look at our interaction. My post 319, whiskers 322, my 345, and her 348.

Here.

my reasoning:

Whiskers, what i meant about lynching grey over one of us is that there is no reason to think he is less likely to be chosen than you or me. So why try to lynch me AND THEN YOUR OWN SELF when grey has been more visibly scummy? It just doesn't make sense to me. It makes me think that i am chosen and you are just trying to lynch me. I get that would be obvious so i'm not certain that is your motive but i honestly see no other reason on why you would say that. I can provide a case on him later if you don't think he's scummy.

whiskers' response:

I'm not saying Greywing isn't scummy. I'm saying that it might be better play to lynch VTs, since mafia wants CTs dead, and mafia will be trying to hide in with the VTs while attacking CTs.

Mafia will try to hide as VTs while attacking CTs.
CTs will think they are VTs and will look like VTs except for Mafia attack them.
VTs who aren't CTs are either VTs (lynchable without consequence as long as both CTs are alive) or Mafia (who we want to lynch in the first place.

She completely ignores my point and my question while talking about wifom theory about what mafia would do. I want to know why she would lynch me and then HER OWN SELF over grey. There is NO REASON to think that grey was chosen townie. she NEVER tells me WHY she would think that grey is possibly chosen.

Finally THIS day period she gave me some answers:

-Neither you nor I had come under as much suspicion as Greywing by the time we lynched him.

Not true. Before the grey lynch started, her and RC both suspected me. Only rc had suspected grey. Multiple posts were spent of me trying to prove myself to be town from attacks. There. Immediately I show that i had come under more suspicion than grey (by one of the mafia members, whiskers, no less.)

Votes that whiskers acquired before we had our conversation: I
Votes that I acquired before we had our conversation: II
Votes that grey had acquried before we had our conversation: II

So me and grey had the same amount of votes. But grey's came from two people who found him scummy. Mine came from one scum, and one townie who thinks i'm scum in EVERY SINGLE GAME we play because i've tricked him a few times as mafia and he's paranoid about me escaping him. Anyway, this point by whiskers is FALSE.

-We were thought to be VTs by Village-Leader McStab, so were under at least some protection from a lynch that day.

Mcstab thought that RC/ RGF were chosen. This means that he thought grey was either VT OR SCUM. So this point is completely invalid. FALSE.

-Clever mafia wouldn't push for Chosen Townies right away anyway, for fear of

Thanks for telling me your game plan.

She completely disregarded her other point that she thought grey could have been chosen due to the amount of votes he had acquired by saying this.

She's lying. She's squirming. Lynch her.

[Eidolon]

She was covering for her scumbuddy. Keep in mind that whiskers was the only active person that grey avoided talking about last day period.

Whiskers is scum.

[rapidcanyon]

I think Eidolon's case against Whiskers is really convincing. Whiskers agreed with me that Greywing was scum but was really hesitant to vote before hearing from the inactives. To be honest, I wanted to hear from the inactives too because I didn't want to leave any stone unturned and I had a bigger read on Eidolon. I don't know. I'll re-read.

[rapidcanyon]

She was covering for her scumbuddy. Keep in mind that whiskers was the only active person that grey avoided talking about last day period.

Whiskers is scum.

But why avoid talking though. It makes far more sense as classic scum behavior to accuse and distance while voting for a different player?

Also, Grey saying that we are scum together fits a bit too perfectly. If I got lynched and flipped town, pressure goes off of you. If you get lynched and flip scum, I look suspicious - according to Grey.

[inte]

i've only skimmed the walls but the points that i did read i agree with

1. its a general tell that scum partners ignore each other for fear of being tied to one another ( i was going to post the same analysis earlier, but decided i could use it to read someone else ;P)
2. the lack of ability to acknowledge grey's scumminess
3. the hammer for reasons (s)he doesn't remember, while somewhat fencesitting on his alignment

anyways, i wouldn't even feel bad about lynching town-whiskers because of the less likely chance that (s)he is chosen

[inte]

@RC negatory, inexperienced or inattentive scum often ignore their partners

[rapidcanyon]

Also, I wonder if Eidolon was so convinced of Whiskers being scum, she would have hammered by now. Whiskers is at L-1.

[Eidolon]

She was covering for her scumbuddy. Keep in mind that whiskers was the only active person that grey avoided talking about last day period.

Whiskers is scum.

But why avoid talking though. It makes far more sense as classic scum behavior to accuse and distance while voting for a different player?

Also, Grey saying that we are scum together fits a bit too perfectly. If I got lynched and flipped town, pressure goes off of you. If you get lynched and flip scum, I look suspicious - according to Grey.

I thought he said that if you flip town, he will look at me? That means that he's putting the blame on another townie, setting up a double mislynch.

Re Whiskers: its very very VERY common for mafia (especially not so great ones, which, from looking at grey's posts we can tell is likely) to avoid their teammates. They fear making too many opinions on them for being seen as connected to them. They fear calling them scum in case a townie latches on to this and starts pushing a lynch on that player. They also OVERLOOK them a lot because they know they are on a team together. Mafia want to fake scumhunting amongst the townies for the most part.

Yes, a better strategy for distancing is disagreeing with your teammate, or fosing them, but a lot of mafia players forget (or are scared) to do this and just outright avoid them.

Also whiskers didn't explain why she thought grey was scum when the discussion about lynching him took place. She just hammered him. after talking about how we should lynch me and then her over him.

she caved in and hammered because she knew she was wrong and wanted townpoints for being part of his lynch.

[rapidcanyon]

Okay, I am going to start re-reading right now. I have class in a couple hours (what am I doing wasting so much time when I should be studying? But mafia is an addictive drug, so...)

Anyways, let me re-read with the assumption that Eidolon is town and whiskers is scum. So, far I have only been reading it one way - assume Eidolon is scum and base reactions around that.

[Eidolon]

lol i didn't realize i didn't have my vote on her.

i'd like to hammer but i want to at least give her the chance to respond.

I probably should just do it though...

*shrugs*

more talking can't hurt in this situation.

[rapidcanyon]

Yeah, let's hear whisker's response. Don't hammer.

[Mortontfrh]

Vote Count 3.1

With 5 players it takes 3 to lynch.

Whiskers (2): Inte, McStab

Not voting: Eidolon, Rapidcanyon, Whiskers

Deadline is in (expired on 2012-09-17 01:57:00)

[inte]

i could pull a whiskers and say "fuck it yolo"

[Eidolon]

i want to hammer sooo bad... though i realize that's not the smart thing to do in this situation.

the only other option imo is inte. and though i think he's done a couple of fishy things, but it is a lot more of a speculative and open case than whiskers'.

Oh, and apparently i'm whiskers biggest scumread, but look at this quote from whiskers from post 435:

Maybe, but I'd say it's too early to make such a firm accusation.
However, you might convince the mafia not to nightkill him, to either frame him as mafia, or make you wary to lynch him (and lynch a CT instead).

Whiskers knows i'm town.

otherwise she wouldn't have been thinking about how my speculation would effect mafia's decisions.

There's no way that quote could have come from someone who legitimately thinks i'm scum.

So i'd be interested in hearing who she throws her scumread on now. Or if she still thinks its me, how she will try and wiggle her way out of that one.

[Eidolon]

if someone has a good reason why i shouldn't hammer speak out soon because i'm just about at the point where i am so convinced that i don't see myself changing my mind and don't see much of a point in dragging this out.

[rapidcanyon]

Don't hammer because I want to hear whiskers response.

If Eidolon is scum, obviously killing whiskers is a bad decision.

Also, Eidolon, if you are town (and just in case Inte is scum), it will be a terrible decision to hammer as you will likely be lynched handing Inte the win. So, yeah. Wait. When we are all decided, then we can hammer.

Let's take this one slow. We have plenty of time left. I don't want to spend time re-reading just yet since Possesed Pastors game is about to run out of time and I need to spend time on that. We have 10 days here. I am sure if we analyze hard enough, the scum will eventually become apparent.

[inte]

? eidolon u wanna trade spots?

[rapidcanyon]

Also, I really wouldn't mind waiting on McStab to come back. And Eidolon, remember that the already existing votes on whiskers are an "experiment" of some sort by McStab. So, it is not like they both agreed whiskers was scum and are waiting on your hammer.