Open 445: Fight or Flight - {Game Over!}

[Om of the Nom]

I'm not playing the same way I was in Masons and Mafia because this game I'm actively making an effort to improve my play and also my logic (since that is what a lot of my reads are based on this game, gut is just a secondary measure). In Masons and Mafia I was just buddying everyone, using gut for a lot of my reads and basically coasting along without doing much, but I'm trying to change that this game.

The more I think about it, the more I'm reading DJD as town anyway.
I wonder why Matti put me on the list for people to shoot assuming town flip? Please explain, since a scumread on me came out of nowhere for you.
I agree with RD about Max's latest post, especially regarding the false dilemma. He hasn't even tried to explain why our interactions are bad.
A false dilemma is basically when someone creates a dilemma that doesn't really exist. The dilemma here is that the interactions between RD and I are bad, but they aren't despite you portraying it that way. Maybe if you can explain it it won't become so false.

So basically my reads right now are:
Scum: Matti/Uct/Mala
Null: Max
Town: DJD/ＲＤ

[Shiidaji]

{Day 1}

Vote Count

• uctriton00 (1):
  Malakittens
  
• DoubleJD (1):
  Maxous
  
• Malakittens (1):
  Om of the Nom
  
• Mattilou (1):
  uctriton00
  
• Not voting (3):
  Rainbowdash, Mattilou, DoubleJD

With 7 alive it is 4 to lynch.

- uctriton00 is back from V/LA

[MattiLou]

@ RBD~ the main problem with this plan, is that it doesn't work past an ideal situation. You have to somehow convince people to voluntarily sign up to die at night when they could just as easily commute and dodge. It seems like a great plan, if necessary, I'd consider it. My question is, how do you plan to ensure others do?

@ Uct~ You're jumping on me for saying that day one is taking to long? Call me scum if you want, but if you're going to pretend to have a reason, please come up with a better one.

Matti could be playing the newbie card. I too have a "gut" feeling about one post though. The post about "day 1 is taking too long" type thing. How could a pure newbie know that? He's my scum candidate.

Vote: Matti

Just because I'm new? Are new people not allowed to think a day is dragging? Sorry, but that's not a good reason in my book. First day should be the quickest and we're already at almost 180 posts.

[Om of the Nom]

First day should actually be the longest, since it's where we get the basis for all of our reads, and if we have nothing to base our reads on, getting them later will be hard to do.

[Rainbowdash]

@ RBD~ the main problem with this plan, is that it doesn't work past an ideal situation. You have to somehow convince people to voluntarily sign up to die at night when they could just as easily commute and dodge. It seems like a great plan, if necessary, I'd consider it. My question is, how do you plan to ensure others do?

Threat of death. If you dont do what was told, you get lynched and if town it means you are essentially playing against your win condition. I can literally guarentee an over 50% win chance if we draw all our lynches from names in a hat. No level of trying to be tricky is going to beat a 50% win chance playing randomly, I can almost guarentee you this is the last time you will ever see this setup because ive broken it badly enough.

Town cooperates, town wins. You dont cooperate while "following" the plan, you probably give scum the win. Its simple stuff, failure to follow the plan means you get lynched the next day.

@Max - I thought you were saying one of us was scum and other was town, but okay... you still arent really making strong stances and have a whole bunch of doors propped open.

[Maxous]

I have consistently pointed out uct and sal/JD as scum, preferred lynches to the point where I fear I might be tunneling.
I have consistently called Om town, I unambiguously called RBD towny in that post, I have called Mala town for most of the game bar my confusion over her 'reaction testing'
I am floundering on my Matt read so yeah *one* person and now I'm being accused of leaving a bunch of doors open.
how exactly?

Om - I'll quote stuff when I have a comp, a lot of it is RBD's insistence on not shooting you if we're shooting Mala the logic does'nt make a whole bunch of sense

[Maxous]

Om - do you think I'm bussing RBD? trying to tie you into her flip?

if not how is what I said scummy?
what would be the point of myself saying it as scum otherwise?

[Om of the Nom]

No, RD is like the most towniest obvtown in this game and I'll sheep her shamelessly until the end of the universe itself.
You were setting up a connection between us that you have still yet to prove even exists.
It gives you something to "pursue" later on if you don't have any "suspects".

[DoubleJD]

Hrmmm i lean town on UTC for deciding to call me towny instead of scummy. Seems weird and against the waves

[Rainbowdash]

@Max - OOTN isnt there because I dont read him scummy really at this point, although he would mandate a second look in Mala and Uticon were town. If I have Uticon town leads to Mala and OOTN lynch... im lynching my 1, 3 and... 5(?) picks for scum. I just get really hesitant to throw both Mala and OOTN in there when Mala-scum detracts from OOTN scum. Not impossible but unlikely if you get my drift.

Im more willing to say that if my read on Uticon is wrong, Mala is a good lynch. If Mala is town I either lynch one of my next picks or somepony who still I would be conflicted on. I know im rambling a bit but im unhappy saying they both should be on there when one is a much more clear cut partner then the other.

Also the "OOTN and RBD are town - but they work together as scum" just feels like trying to make everypony a bit nervous of that when you dont even agree with it much apparently.

[Om of the Nom]

Hrmmm i lean town on UTC for deciding to call me towny instead of scummy. Seems weird and against the waves

Because I totally didn't do that either on the very first post on this page.

[Maxous]

meh, I get where the two of you coming from in regards to the interactions comment at least, I think?

I prob should of been clearer about why when I first wrote it but w/e I'm just throwing down thoughts as they come to me, there are no ulterior motives going on.

still none of that explained this 'leaving doors open' business

[Om of the Nom]

Yeah, the "interactions" comments definitely explains at least part of what RD was talking about, since as I just said it leaves us open for more pursuing on your part later on in the game.

[DoubleJD]

Hrmmm i lean town on UTC for deciding to call me towny instead of scummy. Seems weird and against the waves

Because I totally didn't do that either on the very first post on this page.

And?

Being the third person to say "Ya, i tihnk djd is town" and being the first are two very different things. The first is going against the current, the third is going with it.

[uctriton00]

Having an ML plus a double town kill knocks out 3 townies, putting you at an instant lylo.

Isn't this plan rather dangerous in that respect? All it does is require a 5 in 7 mislynch, and a 2 in 6 mistarget.

[uctriton00]

Wait nevermind, we have bullet shots at night. Scratch that; a tie doesn't mean the game is over.

[Om of the Nom]

Hrmmm i lean town on UTC for deciding to call me towny instead of scummy. Seems weird and against the waves

Because I totally didn't do that either on the very first post on this page.

And?

Being the third person to say "Ya, i tihnk djd is town" and being the first are two very different things. The first is going against the current, the third is going with it.

The focus on Uct's townread without a mention of mine is kinda odd, though maybe it's just my self-esteem being hurt :P

[Rainbowdash]

Having an ML plus a double town kill knocks out 3 townies, putting you at an instant lylo.

Isn't this plan rather dangerous in that respect? All it does is require a 5 in 7 mislynch, and a 2 in 6 mistarget.

May be a lot to ask for, but if I can be unequviocally be read as town I can guarentee you at WORST a 71% chance of us ending up with at worst a draw, depending on scorched earth rules. Thats if I just do dice rolls for who is scum without scumhunting. Bucking beautiful is what that is - really hope nopony liked this setup because you will never see it again.

Matt is quickly givng back town points and makes me 100% happy in saying that if Uticon is scum we just kill all but me-OOTN-Mala and I dont see how thats not a win.

Max is a good aux lynch, same with DJD although he is making me second guess my read. I almost want to say Mal-OOTN if Uticon is town, but I dont think that OOTN is really all that likely to be scum either way. Maybe I just like the idea of power alliance.

Will start putting up more cases soon, everypony needs to make it very clear who their top suspects are.

By the way, this is how this game is broken

Day one lynch of A
-B kills C, C kills B, all else commute
-One scum must be dead for game to continue
--If no deaths trap activated
-continuting with one scum dead
-Lynch D
-If continues
-E shoots F, F shoots E
-Only G alive
or
-all alive
-Lynch one of E/F
-Scorched Earth endgame/Town win

With a mislynch we only lose if B and C are town OR G is scum in which case its no one wins

Town wins 57%
Draw/All loss 29%
Scum wins 14%

Playing randomly

Thats impressive yes?

If its a scum lynch we just right to the E<->F interaction phase if it doesnt get finished at night.

[uctriton00]

There's a draw condition? Ok that makes more sense.

So with that, as long as you keep the condition of the "death trap" (meaning you lynch either B or C because someone commuted), then the scenario is exactly right.

My only qualm as mentioned is that this has to be followed exactly, as in G doesn't randomly shoot someone during the first day. If there's multiple deaths, what do we do?

[uctriton00]

Wait nevermind the other players have already commuted. Scratch that.

[uctriton00]

I'd prefer to lynch Matti today, but if not, I'll gladly meet in the squared circle if necessary with him at night.

[Maxous]

unvote, vote: uctriton00[\b]

I need to change this, that last post reads fake. a lot of confidence in matt-scum for a gut feeling on one post eh?

why is RD still calling me scum?
I refuted the points brought up and the only relevant response I got was 'well, he's making ponies nervous about a possible pairing between myself and Om', is that it?

[uctriton00]

a lot of confidence in matt-scum for a gut feeling on one post eh?

Gonna go with my gut.

[uctriton00]

And this is what I think:

A = Matt
B = Myself vs C = Mala
D, E, F, G = Max, JD, Om, RBD

[MattiLou]

a lot of confidence in matt-scum for a gut feeling on one post eh?

Gonna go with my gut.

Eight pages of posts discussing play and you go with your gut feeling on one post. Kudos on the confidence though.

RD, I understand that the threat of town retribution should keep people in line with your game breaker plan, but it also involves some risk. If both Mafia end up being in the D-G characters, town is in serious trouble and pretty much out of power. It'll devolve into a four person free for all.