Micro 45 - Artemis Fowl Game Over

[Shamrock]

How are you supposed to judge any reactions from players with one random vote?

Why would you rather judge people based on random votes than based on substantive discussion? There's no reason not to move out of RVS as quickly as possible.

I see this is your second game on the site; do you have any other experience playing mafia? (Serious question, I don't mean to be insulting or anything.)

[Shamrock]

Prohawk, reactions to real votes are more valuable than "vote so and so for having a blue avatar". Also, laying serious votes early has kinda been my style for about three years. I rarely random vote anymore. And I fully realize that usually shifts attention towards me. I don't mind because it gets my opinions discussed.

So now that Mehdi's made a few more posts, is your read stronger/weaker/the same?

[Shamrock]

By your incorrect unvote, I have yet to decide if you just forgot who you voted for, or if you are just trying to obfuscate the fact that you had a vote for kmd whom you are now trying to defend.

VOTE: ProHawk

[Shamrock]

By your incorrect unvote, I have yet to decide if you just forgot who you voted for, or if you are just trying to obfuscate the fact that you had a vote for kmd whom you are now trying to defend.

This is really bad both tonally and substantively.

The idea that shos is trying to "obfuscate" his kmd vote is laughable.

The fact that you're giving yourself wiggle room to attack him on this if other people agree or to back off it if they disagree,

instead of actually attacking him and seeing what his response is in order to read him

, is bad.

The fact that you're waving your arms menacingly going "ooh back off mister or Imma develop a scumread on you too" is terrible.

VOTE: ProHawk

[Shamrock]

Also FTR ProHawk was just looking at the thread and then left without posting anything

[Shamrock]

I am slightly confused about your attack on me. What would you have said if I would have straight up called him scum and voted for him? Scum often crack under pressure and make a reactionary retaliation against a vote. I had no reason to make a full-scale attack at that time, therefore I chose to point out the inconsistency in his argument. If that makes me scum, you should reconsider your logic.

If you think he's scum then you should be pushing/questioning him, not making vague implied threats and sounding out support without actually voting.

What do you think about shos vote for KMD immediately following my vote for him? Do you feel it was an honest mistake that he put your name in his unvote instead of kmd?

I don't care.

Also, who has to do the most work during the day, scum or town?

What was the purpose of asking this question?

[Shamrock]

absta, thoughts on prohawk?

[Shamrock]

Oh, BTW, there is an option when you log in that lets you hide you from the online list (I use it).

[Shamrock]

absta, thoughts on prohawk?

VOTE: Shamrock
Haven't looked at him yet.

Pro, you should vote Shamrock.

... Are you reading the thread?

[Shamrock]

Alright. Has your read on shos grown stronger/weaker/the same as a result of the discussion your post provoked? What about your read on kmd?

I said "I don't care" because I don't see anything useful emerging from examining the things you mentioned.

[Shamrock]

@ProHawk: I've ignored your question about town vs. scum effort, and I'm also ignoring your question about what I consider the strongest scumtells, because I'm not interested in being dragged into a theory discussion in the midst of a game. (We have a Mafia Discussion forum for that.)

You say that shos's playstyle "can be anti-town", but do you think he is scummy?

[Shamrock]

PH, you don't see the difference between not answering a theory question and not answering a question about your scumreads?

[Shamrock]

You've just shown that shos is either not very good at mafia or not playing seriously yet, but I'm not sure that you've shown he's scum.

Has anyone played with shos before? Is he normally this useless/self-focused early?

[Shamrock]

All robo said is that town players exist, which I don't see how that's strange.

Gnr, what's wrong with the shos wagon?

I thought the wagon happened too fast and way too early. We don't need a lynch this early

Who would you prefer to lynch right now?

[Shamrock]

i.e. give us something useful to work with here.

[Shamrock]

Screw meta. He is the scummiest person right now.

I lynch scummy people.

Oh yeah and in response to this, it's not really a meta thing. I just think your case shows that shos is unhelpful and needs to provide analysis, but I don't see anything in there that's actually scummy.

[Shamrock]

Think he is very likely town.

[Shamrock]

Yeah #101 was very "look at me I'm town" but I still can't quite decide whether ProHawk is actually scummy or just inexperienced.

[Shamrock]

I agree, but the main thing stopping me going "SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM" is that he's already shown a proclivity to discuss theory and this sort of fits with that.

He is still my strongest (only) scumread for now though.

pedit: What the heck

@Mod:

will a lynch on you resolve? And is the (3) on shos a typo or intentional?

[Shamrock]

Meh... on a quick skim #23 sticks out as overjustified and a bit scummy tonally, but the rest of his ISO still reads as disengaged null/town to me.

[Shamrock]

Please don't put words in my mouth. I never said I was certain you are scum; in fact, in the post you just quoted, I was expressing uncertainty in my read! If I was 100% convinced you were scum, I would be focusing on convincing other people to vote you rather than on asking you questions.

You can continue call me scum all you want, but you are dead wrong. The best part about me knowing my alignment and your frivolous attacks is that I know you are either deliberately trying to get me lynched because you know I am town, or you have a lot of pride in your abilities to find scum which overrides common sense.

Which of these do you think is the case?

I'm also less than crazy about your focus on prosecuting "anti-town behavior" rather than scummy behavior.

[Shamrock]

What the heck gave you the impression that robo thought you were "absolutely scum"? Since does "this guy's scum" mean "I am absolutely positively 100% sure that this player is scum, I have no uncertainty whatsoever about this and nothing will change my read"?

[Shamrock]

UNVOTE:
I'm getting a hard scum read on Robo.
I'm gonna reread and hopefully come to a decision.

absta, what happened to this?

[Shamrock]

... Explain what about post #37?

[Shamrock]

I thought it was worth noting?

I know I've deliberately dodged the thread as scum before when under attack.

[Shamrock]

Neither, I was implying that your question was stupid.

Concerning ProHawk: Shitty attack on shos. Wishy-washiness in reads, casting around for support before committing to an attack. Focus on pointing out anti-town behavior instead of scummy behavior. A few "look at me I'm town" posts. A few phrasings that seemed off to me.

[Shamrock]

Not really. I want Mala/GNR to post more.

[Shamrock]

I would love to see some evidence to go with your claims. Also, what is really off about you is your lack of scum reads on anyone else aside from the fact that there has been plenty of scummy behavior floating around. I will echo this sentiment again, you are playing very cautiously.

"Plenty of scummy behavior floating around"? Would you care to point to some? The only solid scumread you've expressed is on Robo, and I disagree with that, so what else have you got?

[Shamrock]

kmd who should I be voting?

[Shamrock]

It looks like nobody agrees with me on ProHawk, which makes me think that I'm probably wrong, so I'm going to sheep my townreads instead in the interests of getting a decent wagon going to move this game along.

UNVOTE: ProHawk
VOTE: shos

Also thinking there is probably at least 1 scum in {absta, GNR, mala}. GNR needs to do something useful already.

[Shamrock]

Do you think GNR needs rope eventually?

We definitely can't let him just lurk his way into endgame.

[Shamrock]

I find that when my townreads disagree with my scumread, it's usually my scumread that's wrong. There's clearly no interest in lynching ProHawk today in any case.

[Shamrock]

Nobody is hammering shos until GNR posts something useful, and if he does not post something useful, then we are lynching him instead.

UNVOTE: shos
VOTE: Guy_Named_Riggs

[Shamrock]

Nobody wants to lynch GNR right this second, I don't think. We have 4 days until deadline, if he continues to just active-lurk/prod-dodge, THEN he's definitely doing it on purpose and should be lynched.

Obviously hammering him right now would be idiotic, and if anyone does it and he flips down then that person is getting speedlynched tomorrow so don't be stupid.

pedit: FINE

UNVOTE: GNR

[Shamrock]

Pro, putting someone at L-1 does not magically make them talk, and taking them off L-1 does not magically make them not talk. I am still certainly on board for a GNR lynch if he does not talk.

[Shamrock]

Just to make sure nobody hammered. I don't think anyone in this game is stupid enough to do that as town, but better safe than sorry. Play enough games on this site and you will run into some pretty terrible players...

[Shamrock]

We should probably lynch at this stage. I'll support a lynch of Shamrock or Mala today.
VOTE: Shamrock

Shos claim.

?????

How does the second post logically follow the first

[Shamrock]

No. Explain why you switched your vote from GNR to shos.

[Shamrock]

No. Explain why you switched your vote from GNR to shos.

So you were fine with me asking Shos to claim?

Are you reading the goddamn thread?

[Shamrock]

Like seriously I expressed confusion about your asking shos to claim literally FIVE POSTS ABOVE YOURS, what the fuck was that question?

[Shamrock]

Now tell me why the fuck you want to lynch shos all the sudden when you have been pushing for a lynch on me all day (even on this very page!!)

[Shamrock]

Why did you ask him to claim???

^ What is so hard about answering this question?

[Shamrock]

So you asked someone you didn't think was scum to claim.

You asked someone. YOU DIDN'T THINK WAS SCUM. To claim.

He claimed.

And NOW suddenly you think he's scum?

VOTE: absta101

[Shamrock]

LOL

Sorry for catching you two games in a row

[Shamrock]

absta, you asked someone you thought was town to claim as a "reaction test" when he was at L-3 and then, when he claimed VT, you suddenly decided he was scum after all and voted him without an explanation. Zero percent of that makes sense from a town perspective.

As for your question, I didn't think he would actually claim.

[Shamrock]

Okay, but you were soft-defending him and you certainly weren't calling him scum. And you gave no explanation for voting him at the time, and when pushed, the only explanation you gave was that you didn't believe his claim. What don't you believe about it?

310 is obvfake

[Shamrock]

I'm meh on the claim. For a reasonably important LEP character to be vanilla like that feels a bit off. The flavor's fine, but considering there is no vanilla pm in the first post I'd assume all scum have fake claims.

I know you can't quote but I want you to vaguely describe just the tone/point of view of the flavor. There's one thing in it that whether it's right or not is affected.

In the last Nexus game I played he allowed the scum to request fake role PMs, so I'm not sure examining the claim is going to be useful.

[Shamrock]

@Shamrock

Okay, but you were soft-defending him and

you certainly weren't calling him scum

. And you gave no explanation for voting him at the time, and when pushed, the only explanation you gave was that you didn't believe his claim. What don't you believe about it?

1. The bolded is an outright lie.
2. Not giving an explanation "at the time" is scummy? Explain.

absta, you asked someone you thought was town to claim as a "reaction test" when he was at L-3 and then, when he claimed VT, you suddenly decided he was scum after all and voted him without an explanation.

I think you're choosing to "misunderstand" me. I was reaction fishing to see if anyone would take an opportunistic jump on me after I asked Shos to claim. I did NOT expect him to claim and I think he knew he wasn't L-1.

Zero percent of that makes sense from a town perspective.

Nor does it from a scum perspective it seems? I asked for scum motivation, answer me directly.

confirm vote absta

I know you're not actually this stupid.

[Shamrock]

absta, I will answer your terrible scumquestions if you tell me why you didn't believe shos's claim.

[Shamrock]

Okay, but you were soft-defending him and

you certainly weren't calling him scum

. And you gave no explanation for voting him at the time, and when pushed, the only explanation you gave was that you didn't believe his claim. What don't you believe about it?

1. The bolded is an outright lie.

No.

2. Not giving an explanation "at the time" is scummy? Explain.

Did I say it was?

I think you're choosing to "misunderstand" me. I was reaction fishing to see if anyone would take an opportunistic jump on me after I asked Shos to claim. I did NOT expect him to claim and I think he knew he wasn't L-1.

Zero percent of that makes sense from a town perspective.

Nor does it from a scum perspective it seems? I asked for scum motivation, answer me directly.

Getting claims and mislynching?

---

not sure what to make of this claim business, will return later

[Shamrock]

Wat...

[Shamrock]

I'd still rather lynch absta, but I'm fine with a shos hammer at this point.

[Shamrock]

absta why are you trying to tie me to a guy who hasn't even flipped, it's almost like you know his alignment already, hm

[Shamrock]

I don't understand why people are voting ProHawk, the flavor thing makes him likely to be town IMO

can we lynch scum instead?

VOTE: absta

[Shamrock]

why Mala?

[Shamrock]

I was sheep voting for pressure, that's it. Hawk CCd town, that's enough to remove his town read.
I still think scum is in Shamrock/Mala.
UNVOTE:
----

@Mala

- It's Day 2 so tell us about your "PR".

I thought you were sure I was scum because I was shos's buddy?

Do you have another reason for thinking I'm scum now?

[Shamrock]

Her vote on absta was pretty good and well-reasoned but maybe I'm just biased because I think absta is scum.

On the other hand her ChaosOmega vote makes 0 sense because Mehdi's GNR push was policy rather than a scum read, I'm not sure if it's scummy though

[Shamrock]

Mala why are you voting CO and not absta?

[Shamrock]

How does the nightkill make CO more likely to be scum, given that Mehdi was pushing GNR out of policy rather than out of suspicion?

[Shamrock]

Nexus gave fake claims in the last game he modded that I played even in a theme where it was totally unnecessary (History)

I believe the claim though

[Shamrock]

Like I said the theme was literally "History Mafia" so it's not like there was a shortage of possible roles the way there is in Artemis Fowl.

[Shamrock]

What I'm wondering about Mala is, for those of you who have played with her before: is she the sort of player who is creative/clever/unorthodox enough to pull a planned D1 gambit like softclaiming a PR into a commuter claim?

If it were coming from someone like, for example, Hoopla, I wouldn't trust that claim for a second - but I don't see most players on this site pulling something like that as scum. Would Mala?

[Shamrock]

======================[]

[Shamrock]

Results?

[Shamrock]

I'm a thief.

VT

Wat

[Shamrock]

Hax.

[Shamrock]

Generally you're supposed to pick the person who goes next ("popcorn") when massclaiming.

I have some thoughts which I will post after the massclaim is done.

[Shamrock]

Lieutenant Briar Cudgeon, VT.

Chaos goes next.

[Shamrock]

Okay. I was putting this off because I had a lot of work to do and wanted to reread the thread before posting.

I am reasonably confident that Malakittens is town. I did a skim of her recent games and she's been scum very rarely, which means her scum game is underdeveloped and I don't think it's likely that she'd pull something like that claim as scum. In the one closed game I found where she was scum she claimed VT and played pretty orthodox. Additionally, her posts feel very town to me.

Assuming Mala is town, then, that leaves three possibilities:

ProHawk/Chaos: This doesn't seem terribly likely. The eagerness with which ProHawk pursued the policy lynch on GNR seems out-of-character for ProHawk based on his posting. And the way Chaos was at his throat so quickly after replacing in makes this less likely.

ProHawk/kmd: Not impossible, but not likely either based on their day 1 interactions, which just don't look like scum/scum to me. Their posts during RVS don't look like reactions that scum would have to each other, and there is too much of a sizing-up feel to the dialogue that follows between them.

kmd/Chaos: This seems like the most likely pairing. kmd was soft-fighting the GNR policy wagon. I don't see any interactions that make me think it's unlikely. Chaos hasn't mentioned kmd a single time since replacing in, which is in line with how he played when we were scum together in a mini.

[Shamrock]

kmd, can you explain what reversed your reads on ProHawk and on me? You've been calling ProHawk town all game and I'm really not liking the way you come into lylo calling for a lynch on your townreads without even looking seriously at Chaos.

[Shamrock]

Scum motivated? That makes no sense; it was led by Mehdi. You seem to be completely disregarding the possibility that he is scum.

[Shamrock]

Do you think a ProHawk/Chaos scumteam is a possibility

[Shamrock]

ProHawk/Shamrock could still technically be possible if ProHawk performed the kill N2, but I'm inclined to think that's not the case.

Why are you inclined to think this?

[Shamrock]

What the heck is that tag doing in there

[Shamrock]

Oh nvm I can't read.

[Shamrock]

I'm here, actually.

I've already done some partner speculation, but I took a deeper look at individual ISOs just now and I think they support my previous conclusions.

I still think Mala is town. We all seem to be agreed on this.

kmd has an ISO that could easily come from scum. He's very rigid in his scumreads and I just don't get the impression that he's actively trying to figure out who is scum. He keeps his vote on shos for all of D1 from post #28 onwards which isn't in itself bad but he never seems to be attempting to refine his read at all. He asks shos no questions and doesn't really analyze anything shos writes except for one or two posts which he only examines to use as incriminating evidence. Here are a couple of excerpts that I think are representative:

Shos post 100 first paragraph looks like scum who doesn't think they are scummy. I've been in that spot before. You don't think you've done anything scummy, yet people are voting you. Its frustrating because you aren't being lynched for what you believe is scummy, yet everyone else seems to be turning against you. This kind of post usually comes when your scumbuddy jumps on you. Shos/robo anyone?

Yeah, I might be ok with a guy lynch depending on his next post. The only thing that has me hesitating is that this reminds me of a time he was mislynched, but someone said this is his scum play too, so if there's no way to tell the difference, and shos as scum with either guy or mala makes the most sense, he's not a bad lynch at all.

Just wanna throw this out there. I love how shos is trying to make it look like he didn't post in the first ten pages. Check his ISO and see if you think that's the case. I'm only on page ten but I can't wait to see who the 1-2 scum supposedly are between myself, robo, mehdi, and shamrock.

[...]

Shos, I'll tell you the same thing I told prohawk regarding serious votes in my first few posts. If you want to make a case why I'm scum for something I do in every game regardless of alignment, feel free. That's just how I play the early game. Oh and nice try at painting my vote on you as process of elimination. The good points on absta and robo are throwing me off a bit though. But then you 180 on both. Interesting...

Mehdi makes a good point about shos' reads. It's all OMGUS and buddying those who thinks he's town. Like, not 100% but pretty damn close.

[...]

Did shos just claim VT with two votes on him?

Absta's entire page 14 looks scummy as hell,

but only if shos is town

. <-Actually scratch that last part. I can see bussing here.

Actually everything after that looks like Shosbuddy. And Shos' "kill absta" looks like distancing just before death.

This is pretty much the extent of kmd's active discussion of shos after the first couple of pages. If you don't believe me/think I'm cherrypicking, pull up kmd's ISO and CTRL+F "shos". Nothing in his ISO looks like someone trying to actively ascertain whether shos is scum; it looks like someone who's decided shos is scum.

Harder to make anything of his vote/discussion on absta because we quickwagoned D2, which admittedly is partly my fault.

It's more difficult to draw any conclusions based on ProHawk or Chaos's ISOs, but if I had to pick today, I think I'd still pick ProHawk as townier. Even if his vote on shos isn't the best, he looks like he's actively scumhunting, and his flavor-CC of absta just... doesn't seem like something scum would do. Especially not with the extremely logical personality thing he's got going on.

There's less to go on with Chaos, and I'm not sure I trust my ability to read him, but I can see him being scum easier than I can see ProHawk being scum.

I really think I want to lynch kmd today.

[Shamrock]

What's your impression of ProHawk?

[Shamrock]

Hmm...

No hammer here... yet...

[Shamrock]

aghhhhhh

[Shamrock]

Mala help me out here. Do you think Chaos/ProHawk is possible? Looking over the game, Chaos replaced in and listed shos as his top scumread and Pro as his second scumread so he might have felt obligated to switch to busing Pro D2 after shos was lynched. But this would also mean that Pro was policy-busing his buddy D1. How likely is all this?

If we can rule out Chaos/ProHawk then we should obviously lynch kmd today.

[Shamrock]

Well, I've been hand-wringing over this for long enough and I don't think my opinions are going to change.

VOTE: kmd

If I've been smeckledorfed then I apologize.

[Shamrock]

No, but...

[Shamrock]

I agree; I'm about 90% sure it's Chaos.

I have a lot of reasons and can lay them out if I need to, but if I don't need to convince you then I won't bother.

I'll wait for Chaos to show up before voting.

[Shamrock]

I'm not going to make someone replace into a slot I'm 95% sure I'm going to hammer anyway. I'll wait a little longer though.

[Shamrock]

I think ProHawk is town because:
- his interactions with kmd don't look like scum/scum because I get the impression that he is genuinely trying to determine kmd's alignment;
- his interactions with other players give me the same impression of his mindset/intentions;
- kmd came into D3 pushing ProHawk's lynch hard, and I think he felt like he had the game wrapped up with a quick ProHawk lynch.

I think you are scum because:
- kmd was trying to shoo people off the wagon on the guy you replaced with surprising strength, given that it would be a pretty easy vote for scum to make if you were town;
- kmd's lack of pressure on you at the beginning of D3 looks forced;
- your claim doesn't seem like it fits into a balanced setup given the flips we have so far (but would make more sense as an ability for Butler);
- your ISO looks more like declaring reads and then attacking people based on those predetermined declarations than actively trying to develop your reads: you declare a scumread on ProHawk coming into the game and then just blast his attack on you rather than questioning him and trying to refine your read;
- your play in this game reminds me of triangle's game where we were scum together and you studiously avoided mentioning or addressing me all game (as you have done here with kmd).

Show me why I'm wrong.

[Shamrock]

Also, I had a fairly strong townread on KMD until D3. I'm not sure what a reversal on a read proves.

[Shamrock]

Well, if Chaos is town then he's being uncharacteristically worthless, so screw it.

VOTE: ChaosOmega

[Shamrock]

Wooooooooooo

[Shamrock]

Robocopter87 doesn't take any action

ಠ_ಠ

[Shamrock]

So I guess the magic cop was kind of a reprise of the gender cop?

Too bad neither role got to actually do anything...