Micro 54: Slightly More Vengeful GAME OVER

[guille2015]

/Confirmed

[guille2015]

Vote Grump

For not allowing Fun

[guille2015]

I'll have Limited Access until Monday.

[guille2015]

I need to reread this, but some quickies before I do that.

One of Om/Maestro/Grump (or two) is confirmed scum, otherwise scum would have hammered by now.

You're terrible, do you realise scum may not be able to coordinate a hammer correctly and that unless it goes as smooth as possible it will basically out either both or one of the scum?
Maestro agreeing with Maru on this is probably just scum buddying derp-town Maru.

I agree with this. A double quick hammer is hard to pull off. I've tried. The Idea that one of them is confirmed scum is a fallacy in itself. This gives me a Maru-town Vibe. However, with 6 players in play statistics say that there are at least one scum outside that wagon. I always feel like scum like to either split their votes or not be in a town wagon or outside of a quick wagon on scum.

[guille2015]

Sooo...Maru looks Town. Moving on...
shos lynch, Maru?

Forget Maru, I think guille is pretty much town. His scum-reading ability is impeccable.
In other news, Om's profile picture reeks of joy and happiness. I think he's scum.

Why am I town?

[guille2015]

I'd like to hear from Grump, but he's been like away for 3 days.

[guille2015]

Vote Count
Maestro - 2 (Grump, Om of the Nom)
shos - 1 (Maestro)
Grump - 1 (Guille2015)

Not Voting - 2 (Maruchan, shos)

At this point, I am thinking how likely will scum bus each other. I pretty much doubt that both scum are on Maestro-town Wagon. If Maestro is scum, then we could see one scum there (busing). Scum has the largest benefit if they lynch town though. Lynching town has a potential of getting two town killed. Which will give scum the victory.

So considering that Shos vote place Maestro at L-1 and Maru did not Hammer. Makes me think that either Maestro is scum or Maru is not scum. If Maestro is Town, he will shoot Shos. It is possible that they are both scum and that they are busing each other, but I find it unlikely. If shos is town and he is correct about Maestro, then one of Grump or OmNom is scum (and maru?). If shos is scum and Maestro is town, then the same conclusion can be got... I don't remember were I was going with this.

However:

whhere did you get the omgus from in my post? it contained only a vote, lol. I specifically said and elaborated why I think you were scum last page iirc; I did not vote you at the time because I didn't want it to be in L-1. but ya know, game's gotta go on, and you're not reacting well to pressure. nobody else has even a slight scumread on my radar the way I see it, so you're going down.

I did not like this post.

Maru: grumpy hasn't even picked his prod. how bout we lynch maestro, and in case he flips town, he will shoot grumpy? cuz if we do it the opposite then grumpy might not even send the vengekill.

It is obvious that if maestro is town he will shoot shos. Reluctance to vote for your killer and swaying the possible target to Grumpy is exactly what scum would do if Maestro, and Grumpy are town.

You are aware Shos that if Maestro is town, and you are town, that means that Town loses if he decides to shoot you shos.

I am thinking that Shos is scum.

Vote Shos

[guille2015]

I'm going to go out for lunch, so I have to be quick.

I posted the first two paragraphs as the ideas have been coming forth, but I didn't get too far with it. However I left it there because the points I have made made sense to me and I didn't want to forget them.

Here are my points:
*Considering that mafia will prefer to have the town lynched, then their priority is to get a town lynched, if that fails, bus a scum.
*If Maestro is town then Maru cannot be scum because he would have hammered.
*If Maestro is scum then it reflects that Maru could be scum withholding his vote, but I would think that scum Maru would rather bus Maestro and look good at it. This would mean that Maru is likely town.
*Grump and Om are not likely to be both scum since it would be to strong to have both scum so early on the same wagon.

Maestro has been voting for Shos, so I would guess that if Maestro is town and he get's lynched, he'd be voting for Shos. You'd withholding your vote makes sense for scum who is either worried of being shot by town or busing their partner. That is why I did not like your post #106. Trying to get Maestro to shoot Grumpy, will be an ideal situation for scum Shos if Maestro is town and Grumpy is also town.

[guille2015]

Now let's see the points.
1. you're thinking wrong. mafia godfather is the only one who can bus. the goon has to do all he can, even if that means he would die, to save the godfather, since a gf lynched is game over. so practically - only the godfather can bus; which means bussing in a vengeful is not as likely.
2. that is wrong. inherently. scum have no use if they hammer and become obvscum, just to be shot at immediately. that is a false logical assumption.
3. No, because once again, if Maestro is the godfather, maru CANNOT bus him. it'll just win for town, no town cred available, just stupidity and rudeness aftergame, as in, blacklisting for playing against WC..you get it. so wrong again. that's 3/3 >_>
4. false. thinking that way is pure wifom; in the last vengeful, in which as scum, me and drmyshotgun won(ask maestro) we were cooperating nicely on the same thoughts, a tad of distancing of course but nevertheless the same wagon. it's wifomish.

1. Is there a Godfather in this game?
2. Ah, but I would expect Maru to do it in an non-obvscum way. He will defenetley go back and check but his reads are that Maru is town and Sho is scum. His likely kill is Shos. Maru can take advantage of that situation though. If he is mistaken and maestro does indeed kill Maru, then it's not the optimal result but still acceptable for mafia. Enter LyLo with very little information as to who the last scum is. No sorry, not Lylo, but something weird because a mislynch would still be able to kill mafia in the vengeful kill. (I will continue this line of thought below).
3. Godfather? You counter is void.
4. Correct, it is wifom. I will retract that point. 1/4.

Considering that mafia enters a particularly less advantageous day 2. Makes me think that Busing something of an afterthought. If we reach Day 2, it means that there is 1 mafia and 3 town. At this point there are two shots to take out mafia. Either two days, or the lynched kills the last mafia. With that in mind, busing is not a good idea for mafia.

I think the no Lynch idea, will remove the inherent advantage that town has on Day 2. And very little information will probably be obtained from the free Kill.

[guille2015]

...that post is wrong so much, lol, but I'm still willing to think you're town because of your join date and that second sentence.

Maestro goon, godfather is bussing him, I'd go with Om since grump just faded and I wouldn't expect that from scum...

These two are fallacies BTW. I have a feeling that Grump is an Alt for somebody. I don't think you can conclude that I am town for that or that Grump is not the godfather for flaking.

[guille2015]

Micro 52:

Announcing signups for a new game:

Micro 54:

Slightly More Vengeful Mafia

Setup:

Open

Mod:

T-Bone

Status:

0/6

"We are having more vengeance than ever! A 6th player joins the game! Be careful, as even the mafia might want revenge too..."

see, there SHOULD be a godfather.
so 1. yes (2/4)
2. any hammer so quick and without waiting for replacement/comments from inactive is inherently scummy. town just wouldn't do that so quickly. unless they're Klick XD
3. see answer to 1 lol.

that makes at worst 3/4

Well, 1 and 3 are dependent on there not being a godfather. Therefore if the setup does contain a godfather as a regular Vengeful, then 1 and 3 are void and not counted. aka they were right for the wrong setup.
I give you 1/2.

unless they're Klick XD

lol!

[guille2015]

...as quoted above the post by hoopla, I think it's a safe bet that there is a GF. but either way I asked the mod.

The win condition for town is different here than the win condition in your regular Vengeful. I am assuming that there is no godfather because it was not stated as a town win condition in this game. This is classified as an Open Game (unless I am wrong with this) so if the information is not in the OP then it does not apply.

[guille2015]

Ok, Shos has been arguing with the mindset of there being a godfather. I need to gauge if the reaction was faked. But it would seem to contrived for mafia. I think Shos reaction makes him town.

Unvote

@Mod: Can we get a vote count at some point?

[guille2015]

Well, I can't really believe it now can I.

If this is the case then Looking back at how people have been voting and accusing could identify if they knew that there was not a god father.

[guille2015]

y u so gud guille?

Because I'm a giant robot.

Maestro, do you agree that Sho town-slipped?

[guille2015]

I ran the numbers and got a 30% win vs 47% if between Lynching and no lynching and following through randomly. Still, we get a better chance by nolynching. However, I have my thoughts. First of all, the votes and the targets are not random. That in itself should change things, because if we go for the noLynch. then we get the minimum amount of information.

I would suggest the following. We do lynch, but if the lynched person is town, then that person

does not

Venge kill. By this method we maximize our chances of Lynching Scum while minimizing our chances of loosing on day 1. It also gives us reads about the votes placed on the lynched person. Then we enter day two with 3 townies and 2 Mafia.

Consider though that it is more advantages to enter day two with 3 townies and 1 mafia obtained when the lynched town kills a mafia.

[guille2015]

Maru chan not understanding. Still voting for Maestro. I can see him as town.

IJY unvotes Maestro. So, IJK what have you learned in your research. Lets hear it.

[guille2015]

the hell..?

you'r driving me insane, I'm going to sleep. go read the setup, we're all vengeful except the godfather.

Sooo...this game is indeed slightly more vengeful. if I understand correctly, ANYONE who gets lynched gets a vengekill, right? that's...odd.

@mod:
I assumed that the mafia are godfather and goon, am I correct?

if there is no godfather, my world will crumble, lol. this setup, without a godfather, is horribly pro scum, I think. I mean, having one extra player from a reg vengeful doesn't matter at all since well, the mafia are vengeful too, so we start in mylo, and the next day is guaranteed to be mylo as well if we have a lynch today(that is, if we even get a next day). so removing the godfather makes it even harder for town, and this means we're gonna have a real challenge. so really, what advantage does town have now?

These posts and his play are consistent with him thinking that there is a godfather in this game. Mafia would have known that there is no godfather and would play with everyone assuming that there is no godfather. This does not appear to be a fake reaction because the conversation came rather subtly, which is very hard for mafia to pull off.

Additionally, There is a risk to making the vigkill today. On day two, even if we mislynch, the lynched townie has the oportunity to shoot mafia, thus continuing the game for a final day 3.

[guille2015]

I'm on the phone, I am ready to hammer. Just kinda waiting for Avalon to chip in. I won't let the day end with a no lynch.

[guille2015]

Vote maestro

I will probably not be able to check again. I prefer the lynch over a NL. Much less get ridiculed by T.bone.

I believe that after this post only maestro can post. Check what we have said. Trust your instincts. If you are scum. Dieeeee!

[guille2015]

Precisely why I was hesitant with voting for maestro. But I did because it would not had mattered. Day two would have seen them dead too.

I will be much more aggressive to lurkers from now on.

[guille2015]

This is a Vengeful like set-up so it'll be nightless. The extra townie exists so that the Scum can Vengekill too without breaking the game. Obviously optimal play is if a townie is lynched Day 1 he should choose not to use his kill. Doesn't me that player will.

I had fun this game.

I slightly disagree with shos. This is in fact a scum sided game day one because there are alot of targets for town to miss with if lynched. But day2 and onward is town sided. Sho and I figured out that the best play was to not vigkill day 1. Still it makes for some interesting play. I will not let lurkers slip by though. I should have noticed when Abaddon kept quiet.