Open 455 - Tit for Tat - OVER

[Shamrock]

Eh, why not.

Unvote: Cheery Dog
Vote: Klick

This is a bad vote and you should feel bad

VOTE: Disturbed_One

[Shamrock]

I figured voting Klick might not be a bad idea, it seems like he could be playing a gambit of some sort. Self-voting seems rather unproductive for town, anyway.

Is self-voting scummy?

[Shamrock]

... I'm not sure that vote is any better - but first, what made you realize your Klick vote was bad?

[Shamrock]

I realized my vote was bad because my logic for it was faulty. I was assuming Klick could be making a gambit as scum, but I failed to consider that he was actually trying to get out of RVS.

Was there anything in particular you suspected of him or did you just go "self-voting, gambit, scummy, must vote"

[Shamrock]

Additionally, numberQ, the wagon you joined was for serious reasons.

Do you think Disturbed_One is scummy?

[Shamrock]

I actually think Distrubed is probably town based on his response to pressure, I think that sort of conspicuous and self-conscious flip-flop is more likely to come from nervous/inexperienced town than nervous/inexperienced scum (who would be more likely to stick to the original position). I was leaving my vote on him to see if anyone would jump on the wagon for shitty reasons. Nekoko did vote him but his post was fine.

UNVOTE: Disturbed_One

Mhork, did your opinion on Disturbed change? What provoked you to unvote him?

[Shamrock]

Mhork, your reasons for (potentially) voting guille seem much stronger than your reasons for voting potato, yet you're voting potato. Why?

[Shamrock]

Prod dodge; I know I need to post more in this game but I'm really busy atm. Apologies.

[Shamrock]

Right now the thing I'm disliking the most is Nekoko's reluctance to evolve his read on Disturbed_One in light of new evidence or even consider that some of his reasons for voting may be obsolete.

VOTE: Nekoko

I agree with MoI's suggested claiming procedure.

[Shamrock]

The fact that Nekoko had a sudden change of heart on Disturbed immediately after I voted him for refusing to adapt or re-evaluate any part of his read on Disturbed is interesting.

[Shamrock]

Mhork vs. Potato feels like town vs. scum, but I'm not sure which is which.

Klick, why is Nekoko a town read?

[Shamrock]

Yeah, I didn't like that post much either.

[Shamrock]

Maybe a slight scum read on HerrRudi and Nekoko.

Hmm, I'll take a look at Nekoko better later today. I'm sorry I didn't really notice him that much.

???

UNVOTE: Nekoko
VOTE: Bitmap

[Shamrock]

I still think Nekoko is scummy for keeping his vote on Disturbed way too long for weak reasons, then switching it for a Potato vote for weak reasons that look like fake-participation. (Switching the vote off of Disturbed in response to pressure is actually probably not as big a deal as I was thinking it was earlier.)

Bitmap criticizing me for not having explicit enough scumreads when the only ones he was offering were "a slight scum read on HerrRudi and Nekoko" with no reasoning is lolz.

Potato might be scum too but that's a weaker read.

pedit: Whoa, bigpost. If Nekoko was one of Bitmap's only two scumreads coming into the game, wouldn't he remember that? Why would he need to look at him further?

[Shamrock]

You want to explain what's up with your Nekoko read?

[Shamrock]

@Shamrock

– what about Post 299 and Post 342 by Bitmap do you find vote-worthy at all? As far as Bitmap posting goes that’s pretty damn good. I find your hop with that justificantion pretty suspect.

Beh?

If Nekoko was one of Bitmap's only two scumreads coming into the game, wouldn't he remember that? Why would he need to look at him further?

Still do want Bitmap to answer this, btw, and I don't like the way he's deflected it with looking at it later.

[Shamrock]

Bitmap is scummy for being inconsistent.

Nekoko is fine (not specifically Town, but fine which is careful use of language to make sure he doesn’t lock himself into a position that he can’t back away from).

Um... then why are you voting Nekoko and not Bitmap

[Shamrock]

Oh nvm I misread

[Shamrock]

Beh?

It's a simple question - why did you vote Bitmap for those quotes?

... Did you read the sentence I quoted under "Beh"?

I mean, if Bitmap-town had only two scumreads upon replacing in, wouldn't he remember who they were? Why would he say he hadn't noticed one of them after declaring a scumread on him?

[Shamrock]

Are you guys seriously going to have a mafia e-peen contest in the middle of a game?

Those quotes don't support that reasoning at all. He replaces in, has a mild scum-read on Nekoko and proceeds to say "I need to look

MORE

into Nekoko". I've bolded the important word. Having a read based on a read-along and then wanting to more directly dig into that read once you are actually in the game is a Town mindset move.

Your reasoning is bad and vote is bad.

This is completely wrong. What he said was:

Hmm, I'll take a look at Nekoko better later today. I'm sorry I didn't really notice him that much.

Nekoko's a scumread for Bitmap, yet Bitmap didn't really notice him that much? What?

Also, why are you answering for Bitmap instead of letting Bitmap answer on his own?

[Shamrock]

I'll give you a hint, MoI's scum.

So this is what you're going with as a response instead of doing something useful like explaining the inconsistency in your Nekoko read?

[Shamrock]

BITMAP. NICE TO SEE YOU. HOW ABOUT ANSWERING MY QUESTION

[Shamrock]

Maybe a slight scum read on HerrRudi and Nekoko.

Hmm, I'll take a look at Nekoko better later today. I'm sorry I didn't really notice him that much.

???

UNVOTE: Nekoko
VOTE: Bitmap

Whoa, bigpost. If Nekoko was one of Bitmap's only two scumreads coming into the game, wouldn't he remember that? Why would he need to look at him further?

[Shamrock]

And more importantly, if he was a scumread how did you "not notice him that much"

[Shamrock]

So do you no longer think Bitmap is scum, or what?

[Shamrock]

Bitmap refusing to respond to simple questions about his reads is unusually derp even for Bitmap. However, I'm willing to get back on the Nekoko wagon, as the reasons I had for voting him earlier haven't changed significantly. I don't like the way his vote's moved or his responses to pressure. Also, looking over his ISO again, he's declaring reads rather than actively trying to refine them (this point is similar to what MoI is arguing a few posts up).

I don't really want to lynch Klick or MoI when we could be lynching Nekoko or Bitmap.

UNVOTE: Bitmap
VOTE: Nekoko

This puts Nekoko at L-1.

[Shamrock]

... I don't know, what if they are?

[Shamrock]

Bitmap what the fuck are you serious with this shit

[Shamrock]

No

We are lynching Bitmap today

This is 10000000% the best lynch available

VOTE: Bitmap

[Shamrock]

Om, bus your scumbuddy.

[Shamrock]

Oh right ok.

[Shamrock]

If you are town, what is hard about answering my question.

I honestly don't understand how you can be town.

[Shamrock]

And more importantly, if he was a scumread how did you "not notice him that much"

[Shamrock]

They do, absolutely, but why did you say that you didn't notice him that much after saying he was a scumread

[Shamrock]

kfd;ajgkl;jfkl;ad why is your signature so accurate

Fuck it I'm going to figure this out when I'm sober

pedit: you know perfectly well that I've only seen you as town

[Shamrock]

This is stupid. We should lynch Bitmap.

[Shamrock]

Nekoko, who is scum?

[Shamrock]

I don't need a wall or a complete read list - just who you think is scum and a brief explanation of why.

[Shamrock]

Oh good, so the scum team is Nekoko/the director/??? (probably A_Potato)

This day was way easier than I thought it'd be.

[Shamrock]

VOTE: the director

[Shamrock]

Confirm vote: the director

[Shamrock]

Why aren't you voting me if you think I'm scum?

[Shamrock]

Why aren't you voting me if you think I'm scum?

Cause I'm voting guille, durr.

Rather than the person who you say just "outed" himself as scum?

[Shamrock]

Hi... I'll do this tomorrow

[Shamrock]

I let myself get distracted from Nekoko yesterday by Bitmap's idiocy, but I think either she or the director would be a good lynch at this point.

I'm thinking that the director actually has a better chance of flipping scum, though. His posting today has just been absolutely godawful and I don't even see how it could possibly come from town, whereas Nekoko really might just be dumb.

So I'm equivocating a bit between these two lynches, as I agree that Nekoko's flip gives us more associational information based on the D1 wagons, but I think the director is safer. Honestly, does anyone see the director flipping town at this point?

It's probably still a good idea for the Jailkeeper to claim, in case we mislynch today.

If she somehow flips Town I think a shot between LordM and Potato by the Vig (meaning don’t JK them) nets scum.

Uhh, are you sure this is wise? An incorrect vig shot loses the game if today's lynch flips town.

[Shamrock]

I'm here. I need to look this game over.

[Shamrock]

Hmm.

Well, presumably whichever of you is scum is the Goon, which means that Mhork is town. (The only way I can see this making sense if one of Cheery/guille is the backup JK is if Nekoko investigated the vig and passed that information along via "start your first post with this letter if your target is vig" or whatever.)

So:
MoI - backup rolecop
Lord Mhork - VT or goon (probably VT)
guille2015 - JK or scum
Cheery Dog - JK or scum
Shamrock - ?
A_Potato - ?
Disturbed_One - ?

I'm town. MoI is confirmed town. If my assumptions are correct, Mhork is confirmed town.
One of guille2015 and Cheery Dog is scum. The other is town.
This means that either A_Potato or Disturbed_One is the final scum.

--

A quick skim of ISOs suggests that Cheery Dog is certainly a possible Nekoko buddy - he never really interacts with her or questions her through all of D1, but then lists her as "possible scum" in #380 with no explanation, then votes her in #442 when the wagon is picking up steam and it is clear that she is going to be one of the major wagons at end-of-day. He eventually gives a case in #480 when greygnarl pokes him into doing it, but it's a pretty flimsy case and he shows no interest in actually lynching Nekoko or following through on his case.

Unfortunately, guille's ISO doesn't actually look all that different w/r/t Nekoko interactions on Day 1 - little interest followed by an eventual hop on the wagon (although he did not switch his vote off the wagon for shinier things). Not sure what to make of Day 2 - could easily have been a planned double bus.

Yeah, I'm equivocating. But I'm leaning a little bit towards Cheery.

guille, who did you target Night 1?
Why did each of you target the people you targeted?

[Shamrock]

MoI, say that the mafia actually shot the director? What would that mean?

Why in god's name would the mafia have shot the director?

[Shamrock]

MoI thinks I should claim, and I don't see any reason why I shouldn't at this point. I am a vanilla townie. Not quite sure how this affects the current situation.

I'm not sure who's town and who's scum between Guille and Cheery. As scum, would it make sense for Cheery to counter-claim at this point? Or if Guille is scum, does it make any sense for him to claim? I'm asking these questions because I'm not quite sure myself. I'd appreciate any opinions anyone might have on this subject.

Should Shamrock and A_Potato claim as well?

I think the scum motivation from either side is pretty clear - if they can get the JK lynched today, they can activate their own JK and then kill MoI while blocking the vig.

Of course, they need to know who the vig is first. Which makes your prompting for me and A_Potato to claim a bit... questionable.

[Shamrock]

By the way,

I didn't want to stop MoI from being able to use the role cop, didn't want to be stopping the vig shot going through, yet wanted to stop the mafia kill. I figured the mafia kill would be coming from the person being vigged of they were mafia. so I went with who I felt the kill would be most likely to be on besides the confirmed town which I didn't want to role block.

I tried to look at why grey was killed, and decided out probably wasn't because of his suspicions which weren't very strong - his slot however was in klick's do not kill ever list, so I went and looked at that for possible night 2 targets and found myself and disturbed on said list, thus since I can't jail myself I jailed the other person on that list.

This doesn't really make any sense. I'd be pretty surprised if the scum targeted anyone other than MoI last night.

I mean, I guess there's the WIFOM of "what if the JK decided to block him because he's conftown and the obvious kill target".

But I think it's very weird that, if you are indeed the JK, you would approach this Night from the perspective of trying to protect the target rather than block the kill itself.

[Shamrock]

Oh, and I keep forgetting to add: I don't think the order of guille/CD's claims tells us anything. Whichever of them is scum probably came into this Day planning on claiming JK from the beginning no matter what.

[Shamrock]

I don't think I agree with you, but this is a pointless discussion with no bearing on your alignment, so whatever.

[Shamrock]

Uhh... if Disturbed flips town, and you die tonight, and we lynch the wrong VT tomorrow, there are 2 scum : 2 town alive and the town loses.

Am I missing something?

[Shamrock]

Meh, I was planning on holding off for a little longer, but whatever.

Obviously I shot Bitmap and the director.

[Shamrock]

I think our lynch today is pretty clear-cut, both JKs have claimed to have targeted Disturbed which means there are three possibilities from least likely to most likely:

- Disturbed was the target, which literally makes no sense, Cheery's explanation aside (if Disturbed is scum then it's obv Cheery btw, he's clearly BSing to protect a buddy). MoI is the obvious target, now okay maybe they thought he would be jailkept, but as scum I would have killed literally any other player in this game over Disturbed. It's not like anyone really had him as obvtown apart from Klick and nobody was paying attention to Klick.
- The scum no-killed, which I guess is sort of vaguely possible if they knew they were going to claim JK but it seems unlikely to me that they would give up a NK for that especially because landing a kill last night would have put us in mylo
- Disturbed is scum, hurr durr

If somehow Disturbed is town then I won't kill tonight and we can decide between AP/Mhork tomorrow.

[Shamrock]

OH I guess a fourth possibility is that the director was the target but that seems even less likely than Disturbed being the target honestly

[Shamrock]

I mean if Disturbed flips scum then the game is literally a guaranteed town win so that discussion is mostly academic

[Shamrock]

Yes, I'm in full agreement.

[Shamrock]

MoI:

1. Off the top of your head, which of AP/Mhork would you lynch tomorrow if Disturbed flips town?
2. Are you aware you've been spelling "Disturbed" wrong for most of the game?

[Shamrock]

Ok, I am leaning that direction too, although obviously I'll take a closer look if I'm alive tomorrow.

VOTE: Disturbed_One

[Shamrock]

My impressions of you are tainted by your slot

[Shamrock]

Lol

VOTE: guille

ggwp

[Shamrock]

<----- #1 vig

[Shamrock]

Oh, I just picked Cheery arbitrarily, I didn't bother looking since we auto-won today no matter who I shot.

[Shamrock]

AngryPidgeon MVP