Open 455 - Tit for Tat - OVER

[guille2015]

So, basically, here you are saying that Nekoko is town for his desperation in self preservation? The odd thing about it that it was the 2nd vote. Town self preservation usually votes for the player with an equal chance of getting lynched, which would have been bitmap at the time. The difference here is that Nekoko kept saying that Venmar was town, hence his vote for Klick, which he could have also gone for MoI. There is something odd in all that reaction. No, I am very comfortable with my Vote intent.

What do you mean I kept saying Venmar was town??
I think Bitmap was more town than Klick so obviously I went with Klick.

Sorry, Not Venmar. I meant to say Bitmap!

[guille2015]

I completely suspect that both nekoko and The Director are both mafia.

Some hints here and there in their ISO, but today's action are pretty much clear to me.

Elaborate please

*In post 75, Nekoko gives a low level suspicion of Venmar for his non-RVS vote in Post 14. Then gives higher suspicion on Herrrudi and then votes Disturbed. Hints at distancing.
*In post 92, Venmar votes Nekoko for not being looked at. Nekoko slightly acknowledges this in post 112.
*In post 126, Venmar fully attacks Nekoko. I find it weak, but valid. Nekoko responsed with post 133 in which he added little refutation. This argument did not bring the attention of anybody in the thread. It's as if they fought each other and no one payed attention. Actually, only Herrrudi reacted to it, but he is dead now (GreyGnarl).
*A_P reacts in 174 giving him a slight bump towards town. A_P favors Venmar.
*After post 417 Nekoko starts to get pressure on him and places Venmar on her suspicion. Finally Voting for him. This post in itself is suspicious. This is after MoI voted for him. Drops his vote for A_P towards Venmar. I think her arguments for A_P were much better than her arguments for Venmar.
*Post 451, Nekoko changes his vote toward Klick. Who at the time had one vote and lots of attackers. Click self votes.
*In Post 469, Venmar says that Klick is scum and replies that He wants Nekoko Lynched. At this point Nekoko is at L-1. At the same time Klick's wagon is gaining steam while Nekoko loses it. At this point enter The Director (527,528)with a Vote on Klick. Notice the 1 minute difference between these two posts or the 10 minutes that passed after the directer replaced in. That's some fast reading to reach to the conclusion you reached.
*Every post after wards is the directors Insistence of Klicks Lynch. Take note that there is this whole 1v1 deal that if considered truthfully, after Klick is killed would have meant that MoI would have been lynched. I know understand why MoI agreed to it, since he expected not to be lynched due to his PR.
*Now, consider that the Director is again stearing (attempting) the wagon off of Nekoko.

I suspect that Nekoko is the Goon. Venmar went head on with a Bus on his buddy to gain street cred. Nekoko reacted aggressively but with very little commitment, thus consistent with a bus-distancing strategy. I wouldn't have noticed if it stayed that way and Nekoko had been killed, thus ensuring Venmar's Immortality, but when the wagon shifted and a better option that had the potential (-ly stupid) possibility of mislynching two towns showed up. It would seem that The Director can come in and favor the latter and have a completely different read than his slot. It is normal for someone that replaced in to have a completely 180 change in view, and the Director took advantage of this.

I would gather a guess that if the Nekoko Wagon had reached an imminent Lynch on Day 1, he would have claimed a PR to either save himself or draw out the real PR. Today, after MoI has claimed and the potential of the JK claiming today, I wouldn't expect Nekoko to claim any PR if his Lynch was imminent.

[guille2015]

Mod: I will be V/LA Until Tuesday November 6th.

[Messiah]

Vote Count 2.4

With nine alive it will take five to lynch.

L-2

Nekoko

- A_Potato, Lord Mhork, Disturbed_One

L-3

the director

- Shamrock, guille2015

L-3

guille2015

- the director, Nekoko

MagnaofIllusion

-

Lord Mhork

-

A_Potato

-

Disturbed_One

-

Cheery Dog

-

Shamrock

-

Not Voting: Cheery Dog, MagnaofIllusion

Deadline in (expired on 2012-11-14 18:00:00).

[the director]

This game is at a paranoid standstill because town is afraid to lynch anyone and scum is lurking and waiting for the chance to lynch a town and move into tonight with a good chance of winning.

guille needs to be lynched. His testing the waters post to start out the day was the most telling. He needs more votes. Now.

[the director]

Kinda pissed that Magna is town because his posting not only has the town freaked, but his long posts are screwing up the reads for everyone.

[Cheery Dog]

Kinda pissed that Magna is town because his posting not only has the town freaked, but his long posts are screwing up the reads for everyone.

Which reads have been screwed because of MoI's long posts?
Given that he is now practically confirmed town (he isn't fully confirmed yet as potato hasn't posted since the claim), that's actually cleared one of the harder to read slots.

How is one person's posting even capable of screwing reads for everyone else?

[A_Potato]

(he isn't fully confirmed yet as potato hasn't posted since the claim)

post

[Disturbed_One]

I'm kind of neutral on Director and Guille at the moment. Nekoko is right now the safest lynch, I feel. Nekoko's been very scummy all game.

[Messiah]

Shamrock and Lord Mhork have been prodded.

[Cheery Dog]

(he isn't fully confirmed yet as potato hasn't posted since the claim)

post

Do you have anything else to say about the game?

[A_Potato]

Not really, I'm actually debating on whether or not I should replace out, since MoI is annoying as fuck and my partner isn't doing anything.

[Shamrock]

Hi... I'll do this tomorrow

[Nekoko]

I completely suspect that both nekoko and The Director are both mafia.

Some hints here and there in their ISO, but today's action are pretty much clear to me.

Elaborate please

*In post 75, Nekoko gives a low level suspicion of Venmar for his non-RVS vote in Post 14. Then gives higher suspicion on Herrrudi and then votes Disturbed. Hints at distancing.
*In post 92, Venmar votes Nekoko for not being looked at. Nekoko slightly acknowledges this in post 112.
*In post 126, Venmar fully attacks Nekoko. I find it weak, but valid. Nekoko responsed with post 133 in which he added little refutation. This argument did not bring the attention of anybody in the thread. It's as if they fought each other and no one payed attention. Actually, only Herrrudi reacted to it, but he is dead now (GreyGnarl).
*A_P reacts in 174 giving him a slight bump towards town. A_P favors Venmar.
*After post 417 Nekoko starts to get pressure on him and places Venmar on her suspicion. Finally Voting for him. This post in itself is suspicious. This is after MoI voted for him. Drops his vote for A_P towards Venmar. I think her arguments for A_P were much better than her arguments for Venmar.
*Post 451, Nekoko changes his vote toward Klick. Who at the time had one vote and lots of attackers. Click self votes.
*In Post 469, Venmar says that Klick is scum and replies that He wants Nekoko Lynched. At this point Nekoko is at L-1. At the same time Klick's wagon is gaining steam while Nekoko loses it. At this point enter The Director (527,528)with a Vote on Klick. Notice the 1 minute difference between these two posts or the 10 minutes that passed after the directer replaced in. That's some fast reading to reach to the conclusion you reached.
*Every post after wards is the directors Insistence of Klicks Lynch. Take note that there is this whole 1v1 deal that if considered truthfully, after Klick is killed would have meant that MoI would have been lynched. I know understand why MoI agreed to it, since he expected not to be lynched due to his PR.
*Now, consider that the Director is again stearing (attempting) the wagon off of Nekoko.

I suspect that Nekoko is the Goon. Venmar went head on with a Bus on his buddy to gain street cred. Nekoko reacted aggressively but with very little commitment, thus consistent with a bus-distancing strategy. I wouldn't have noticed if it stayed that way and Nekoko had been killed, thus ensuring Venmar's Immortality, but when the wagon shifted and a better option that had the potential (-ly stupid) possibility of mislynching two towns showed up. It would seem that The Director can come in and favor the latter and have a completely different read than his slot. It is normal for someone that replaced in to have a completely 180 change in view, and the Director took advantage of this.

I would gather a guess that if the Nekoko Wagon had reached an imminent Lynch on Day 1, he would have claimed a PR to either save himself or draw out the real PR. Today, after MoI has claimed and the potential of the JK claiming today, I wouldn't expect Nekoko to claim any PR if his Lynch was imminent.

How is it even possible that you can guess if a person is goon??
You're twisting posts to make it look like we're somehow both scum.
I think it's scummy to hypothesize scum teams without even scum flip.

I'm kind of neutral on Director and Guille at the moment.

Nekoko is right now the safest lynch, I feel. Nekoko's been very scummy all game.

Yeah right... So you can switch to whichever person later...

the director seems a bit scummy.

You thought he was a bit scummy but I'm thinking
you changed your views when MoI unvoted him

[Lord Mhork]

Post.

I'll get to this soon.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Kinda pissed that Magna is town because his posting not only has the town freaked, but his long posts are screwing up the reads for everyone.

Somebody call the Waaaaahmbulance …

This game is at a paranoid standstill because town is afraid to lynch anyone and scum is lurking and waiting for the chance to lynch a town and move into tonight with a good chance of winning.

guille needs to be lynched. His testing the waters post to start out the day was the most telling. He needs more votes. Now.

I want to point out this statement for two reasons … the first is that it is a pure Appeal to Fear (don't make the wrong move Town or you lose tonight) but I want to get into the specifics of what he is saying …

Let’s look at the vote-count made just prior to this statement –

L-2 Nekoko - A_Potato, Lord Mhork, Disturbed_One
L-3 the director - Shamrock, guille2015
L-3 guille2015 - the director, Nekoko

Not Voting: Cheery Dog, MagnaofIllusion

Now let’s juxtapose what his statement says with this. Director says

1. Town is afraid to lynch and scum is just lurking around looking for a chance to lynch Town.
2. Guile is scum.

So what Director is saying is that both himself and Nekoko are Town with significant wagons, Guile is a scum counterwagon. Yet that doesn’t jibe with his “scum are just waiting around to mislynch Town”. Why haven’t either Nekoko or himself been mislynched if scum are just ‘lurking around waiting to mislynch Town”? And who are the scum? He claims Guile is and earlier claimed Shamrock was. Yet why haven’t they lynched Nekoko as opposed to sitting on director together. He can’t argue that they are afraid to act in unison.

After this posting and a review of Nekoko's ISO I think Nekoko should be the lynch today. If she somehow flips Town I think a shot between LordM and Potato by the Vig (meaning don’t JK them) nets scum. And if she flips Mafia director should be perforated overnight.

VOTE: Nekoko

@Nekoko

– You are at L-1. I highly suggest you claim in your next post as I’m not uncounter-claimed Town and suggest it is the smart course of action.

--

My guess to the team at the moment is nekoko, mhork and possibly potato. although there is a chance director may be part of it still - I'm not completely sure.

How can you possibly think that is the team? There is no way, after a Day 1 mislynch and two NKs on Town players, that two scum are just going to bandwagon Day 2 onto their partner after the way they avoided her Day 1. It isn’t going to earn them any Town cred given they could have lynched her Day 1 but avoided that wagon like the plague.

[Shamrock]

I let myself get distracted from Nekoko yesterday by Bitmap's idiocy, but I think either she or the director would be a good lynch at this point.

I'm thinking that the director actually has a better chance of flipping scum, though. His posting today has just been absolutely godawful and I don't even see how it could possibly come from town, whereas Nekoko really might just be dumb.

So I'm equivocating a bit between these two lynches, as I agree that Nekoko's flip gives us more associational information based on the D1 wagons, but I think the director is safer. Honestly, does anyone see the director flipping town at this point?

It's probably still a good idea for the Jailkeeper to claim, in case we mislynch today.

If she somehow flips Town I think a shot between LordM and Potato by the Vig (meaning don’t JK them) nets scum.

Uhh, are you sure this is wise? An incorrect vig shot loses the game if today's lynch flips town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Uhh, are you sure this is wise? An incorrect vig shot loses the game if today's lynch flips town.

I'd take that shot. I think the chances that either LordM or Potato are Town if Nekoko is Town is pretty much Zero.

In the end not my decision. But given I've become confirmed Town via no Counter-claim I think offering the Vig my guidance is a good thing at this stage.

Then again ... I have my strong doubts Nekoko is flipping Town.

[Cheery Dog]

How can you possibly think that is the team? There is no way, after a Day 1 mislynch and two NKs on Town players, that two scum are just going to bandwagon Day 2 onto their partner after the way they avoided her Day 1. It isn’t going to earn them any Town cred given they could have lynched her Day 1 but avoided that wagon like the plague.

I'm not really that sure on the third member, but that is a good point, so I guess I'll slip director in instead of mhork, although I listed mhork and potato around the other way before (as potato being the the possible third member), he thinking of replacing out tells me it is more likely a scum potato.
VOTE: director

Otherwise

intent to hammer Nekoko

also if either of those possible vig shots have something to claim they probably should depending on whether the vig wants that shot.

[the director]

Hmm Magna you are right based off pure VCA for today. I find it strange that scum would have two votes on me, so its probably one or the other. Guille seems the more scummy of the two based on his toe-dipping at the start of the day.

Cheery just basically admitted that he is fence-sitting the top two wagons, which is suspect.

And I'd either go with one of the prod-skippers / dodgers as the third.

[the director]

Crap after reading over the game I am no longer comfortable with my reads. I need to go back and re-assess. Will try to post them tonight.

[the director]

Yeah Nekoko needs to claim.

[guille2015]

How is it even possible that you can guess if a person is goon??
You're twisting posts to make it look like we're somehow both scum.
I think it's scummy to hypothesize scum teams without even scum flip.

I can't help but see the connection in your posts. I guessed at who was the goon when I figured who was busing who. I aasume that in this game mafia will be reluctant to bus any of the other scum but the goon. I don't particularly think that Venmar had any good case against Nekoko, until later when the votes started piling in and the suspicion was stronger. Still, venmar was relentless.
Twisting posts? The posts are there and I have been open with my interpretation.
I'm hypothesizing based on three town flips and a conftown. I think I have enough data to work with.

[guille2015]

After this posting and a review of Nekoko's ISO I think Nekoko should be the lynch today. If she somehow flips Town I think a shot between LordM and Potato by the Vig (meaning don’t JK them) nets scum. And if she flips Mafia director should be perforated overnight.

I can get behind this. Before the lynch. Should A_P, LM and the director claim also, before the lynch is final?

[MagnaofIllusion]

How is it even possible that you can guess if a person is goon??
You're twisting posts to make it look like we're somehow both scum.
I think it's scummy to hypothesize scum teams without even scum flip.

Let’s see –

1. Caught for the wrong reason (how can possibly know I am a goon?)
2. An accusation of Twisting without showing where Guile is making false conclusions which is just “buzzwording”.
3. I think if you aren’t scum you need to play in Road to Rome more.

Still waiting for that claim.

--

So I'm equivocating a bit between these two lynches, as I agree that Nekoko's flip gives us more associational information based on the D1 wagons, but I think the director is safer. Honestly, does anyone see the director flipping town at this point?

Well given that Nekoko flipping Town means that director is very unlikely scum I find the “safer” element of this argument to be pointless and a distraction.