Micro 70 ~ Mafia in Triplicate (Game Over!)

[Empire]

Ok so I'm finally caught up with the thread. Originally was going to post a RedCoyote-style quote wall but then realized that it would just stretch out the page and no one would read it. So here's a page-by-page on pretty much everything that's gone on in this thread now. Apologies for the thought dump but I really feel like I missed out on this game so I figured it would be best for you guys to get a good impression of my thought process while reading this game:

Page 4:

First thing I noticed is F-16 trying to pressure Tierce over what seems to be his impression that Tierce is not doing enough (by her standards) to push for content in the thread. I think his meta-based concerns regarding Tierce in #91 (“And yeah, that seems different from how you act as town…”) is genuine. What struck me more here is Konowa’s #93 (and later #99) which is really awkward and out of place – trying to poke at F-16’s motivations while simultaneously launching an unexplained comment about NS and Xalxe. It came off as exceedingly shallow to me. NS continues to do nothing to even suggest he’s scumhunting (#94). I like Tierce’s meta response in #97 and I do agree that scum-Tierce would either try to oversell the townread on Konowa or would fabricate other reads completely with the informed perspective that being mafia gives.

Page 5:

Ok, F-16 moving away from Tierce onto pressuring Konowa regarding his statements in the previous page here I think means he likes Tierce’s response too which is cool. The responses Konowa gives are kind of underwhelming here as I don’t really see how focusing on scum’s scumreads would be more helpful than focusing on any of their other reads. F-16 makes a great point in his #103 about Konowa being more concerned with preserving the townread on himself than actually probing into Tierce’s motivations. Ugh, mixed feelings about saulres in #109 – the Xalxe callout is cool but the Tierce one isn’t. F-16 was already putting some heat on her for her attitude in this game and she had already responded, so I don’t really see the point in trying to further this line of inquiry. Shmugen’s unvote of me in #110 is weird but falls in line with his earlier comment about playing an “instigator” role in games (still need to read Shmu’s meta though). Tierce being obtuse in #116/#118/#120 made me laugh.

Page 6:

Eh, Shmu’s comment about F-16 trying to bait people into a chainsaw is kind of a stretch since I think it assumes F-16 has the predictive ability to figure out how someone like Konowa would respond (if that makes any sense). Still not sure if Shmu’s push here is scum motivated because I can see how he would come up with the tonal scumread of F-16 even if I disagree with it. F-16’s response in #126 is very logically sound. I’m noticing that even saulres’ callout of Xalxe is weird because NS has also been lurking too. LOL NS’s #300 – basically silent voting saulres once the heat starts to turn on him. This vote is opportunistic and I’ll be shocked if no one calls him out on this. The question in #132 is totally superfluous considering F-16 had already answered the question before. Um, what the fuck Tierce? (#134). The whole Tierce/F-16 back and forth here is pretty lame, especially considering I have both of them as strong townreads right now. Tierce makes me laugh again in #145 (by the way, lol if you think Tierce would be this intentionally elusive as scum). I’m also starting to notice now that Shamrock’s posts are pretty underwhelming too – mostly superficial probes like in #149 but never really elaborating on it or trying to move things further.

Page 7:

F-16 articulates what I was starting to lean towards in #150 (except with Konowa maybe thrown in there too). Ha, I didn’t notice F-16 only thinking in terms of pairs and forgetting his win-con but yeah that’s more Town points for him. Konowa prod-dodges again in #169…and that’s something distinctly missing from saulres’ #160 given his extreme anti-lurker stance in the early game. Pointing out Xalxe posting elsewhere is nice but I remember NS posting prolifically in other games when I would glance at the site this past week. I’m happy to see that Tierce brings this up in #161 but disappointed that she doesn’t follow up with an FoS because it really deserves one…wait, nevermind #163 (reminder to look at the games Tierce referenced for Xalxe’s meta). Erm, the transition from Konowa #164’s “I have to catch up” to #165’s silent vote on NS is really weird. Shamrock’s vote on #166 is bleh and I don’t know why, it just feels off for some reason. Ok, #167 is actually a really scummy post from saulres – he basically admits to knowing Xalxe flakes as town and switches to Shmugen while appealing to him and while simultaneously making a statement that keeps him open to the Xalxe wagon if it takes flight again (“Not that that means he's town this time, though.”). Shamrock makes the first posts of his I actually like (#170/#171) since that was similar to what I was thinking too.

Page 8:

Hmmm…I can follow saulres’ logic for his Shmu push but still think the timing of it is very awkward and a little too convenient. His townread on Tierce is kinda weird because he didn’t point out, for example, #40. He has to have read the thread at least once before this point because he admits to knowing about Tierce’s calm attitude earlier in #109 – so if he thought Tierce towntold with her #40, why didn’t he point it out then? This just makes it seem like he’s only backing off now that the heat on Tierce has died down and not the product of genuine scumhunting. Also, how is he so convinced that Shmu was scum by page 3, despite clearly having read the thread at least one other time? Shamrock calling him out on that in #181. I didn’t think of the pandering angle that Tierce brings up in #183 but looking at saulres’ post that comment makes some sense. Eh, I normally don’t buy wagon logic so I’m not really feeling the argument F-16 posits in #186 – in one of my earlier Micro games, D1 ended with an all-town wagon on the JK. Scum later used that wagon as arguments to push certain people for mislynches. Not that I think F-16 is scum for pushing this idea, I just don’t find it very reliable personally. Eh, I can buy saulres’ #187 that he might have only had limited time to read this thread before but I really wish this was verifiable. Saulres’ post #193 is reaching, what the fuck? At this point, my mind is starting to wander off a bit here so I don’t really have much of an opinion on the F-16/Tierce exchange here.

Page 9:

F-16 makes a great point about saulres having the time to check other players’ posting history that I didn’t think of before. Even more telling for me is that he singles out Xalxe and not NS in terms of posting history…if he’s trying to posit himself as a comprehensive scumhunter, why isn’t he looking at NS as well? NS’ #204 is just a lame, forced attempt at contribution and towncred..or I guess “shameless posturing” might be a better way of phrasing it. I don’t buy saulres’ rebuttal to what F-16 said in #208…again, why single Xalxe out and not NS? The vote on NS here seems out of place too. Shamrock’s #212 is a great point too and the response in #213 feels like a cop-out. The Tierce/Shmugen back and forth here is uninteresting.

Page 10:

Ugh, getting cold feet about saulres for this comment – “I'm getting flashbacks to Arkham Horror Mafia. But I'm not going to apologize if I'm mislynched this game, I'm being voted for the stupidest of reasons.” I followed that game when it was ongoing and he was really apologetic while he was getting run up and after the hammer. The reaction is different but my gut is telling me it might be genuine. #228 reminds me – where is Konowa? Looking at his recent activity, he has been posting elsewhere pretty frequently. NS’ shift from #237 to #240 is complete bullshit…if he genuinely didn’t still agree with it, he would have unvoted. This just comes across like he’s just backpedalling now that he’s being called out on having his vote parked on saulres. Konowa’s #242 is…really lame, especially considering all that’s happened this game, no comment on any of it. Saulres’ comment about NS pretty much mirrors what I was thinking.

Tl;dr Conclusions

– F-16 and Tierce are very solid townreads. Shamrock is a weaker townread. Saulres’ mid-game was actually really scummy but I think he stepped it up a bit with his reaction to getting wagoned and his recent commentary. I liked Konowa’s claim a lot but he’s basically skated by since then with a lot of drive-by contributions despite posting elsewhere. No opinion on Xalxe since he evidently lurks a lot regardless of alignment and his only substantive contributions to this thread were meh. Not sure on Shmugen at all and I haven’t found the time yet to really dig into his meta.

NS is still my top scumread and I’m fine with a claim + hammer but I think we should wait a bit for Xalxe to actually post stuff. No reason to cut the day short when he still have some time left.

[Nobody Special]

Okay, so, I'll claim.

I'm a Rarefied Townie. Once per game, I can choose a player and change their faction (thus, Rarefaction, see?). Obviously, the best move is to action on a scum and turn them town, thus reducing the number of scum by one and making the game a bit easier. I can't tell by the wording in my Role PM whether there is another Townie with this power or not.

Since I've claimed, I'm willing to let you guys direct my action.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am conflicted on NS's claim. I can buy it because of its uniqueness but there are a few things that need to be answered.

If you change the affiliation of a mafia member, won't they just out their two buddies leading to an easy town win? What will prevent this from being game-breaking?

[Empire]

I'm torn on it too. It's a really weird and potentially gamebreaking claim if true but it makes sense in light of his comments in the early game about this game being bastardly.

[Tierce]

...obviously the best move would be to

never action

, since there are the very likely odds of:
1) hitting Town and turning them into scum;
2) being redirected by scum.

What's even worse: if you are Town,

you can supposedly turn yourself to scum

. Your role, as claimed, is essentially a self-recruitable traitor, or it can cause us to lose N1 if the scum have anything resembling a regular wincon (mislynch D1, turn Town to scum, N1 kill--it's now three Town v. four scum, wtf?). And you're rolefishing, which is really

awesome

on top of everything.

In addition, if scum know each other, turning a scum into Town can cause them to out their ex-partners (see what F-16_Fighting_Falcon just said). There is no way this claim makes sense, it's incredibly swingy however it's used.

(And 'Rarefied' Townie, in addition, doesn't really seem like the wording Vi would use. I'd see "Rarefier" as much more likely.)

This dies now. Hammer, please.

[Nobody Special]

Well, it doesn't explicitly say what prevents them from doing that, but I think such an action would be modkillable. Also, see the "Other" section of the rules, especially the third point. I wouldn't put it past Vi to modkill all the scum if a converted scum outs their partners, leading to a town auto-win. (But that's edging into set-up spec, and I try not to do that,

especially

with Vi.)

[Nobody Special]

Tierce, I can't action on myself. I didn't mention that, as it seemed fairly obvious.

[Tierce]

How on earth would it be modkillable, if they are outing elements of a faction they are not part of? That makes no sense. That is why scum usually have cult-recruitment immunity or something the like (dying, for example), because

recruiting scum into another faction causes them to out their partners

. This is

obviously

perfectly legal in a game: saying they wouldn't be able to do so is like saying a cop can't claim a guilty.

This needs rope. Please to be doing so.

[Nobody Special]

Thank you for punishing me for a role I didn't even choose.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Well, it doesn't explicitly say what prevents them from doing that, but I think such an action would be modkillable. Also, see the "Other" section of the rules, especially the third point.

I wouldn't put it past Vi to modkill all the scum if a converted scum outs their partners, leading to a town auto-win.

(But that's edging into set-up spec, and I try not to do that,

especially

with Vi.)

Now I am even more torn. The bolded part is a really lame answer. If NS is telling the truth about his role/is town, I am thinking there isn't a mafia or the mafia don't know who each other is. Those are the only solutions that make sense to me. If there isn't a mafia, there are likely 3 third parties. I am leaning towards there being a mafia who don't know who their buddies are though.

General Rules:

Hawt New Game Mechanic rules:

1.

Rarefaction.

There is a mechanic that will apply to certain people.

Based on this, I am willing to buy NS's claim as town. A really odd claim to come from scum.

However, on the other hand, if he converts town to scum, game over if we mislynch which is really unbalanced. YET, if scum don't know who each other are, would they be able to quickhammer during LYLO at all? Interesting conundrum.

I've heard enough that I want Konowa to elaborate on his comment.

Tierce's over-eagerness is making me nervous.

[Tierce]

You want to know why his claim is not true, F-16_Fighting_Falcon?

You win when

two of the three scum

in this game are dead.

Please explain how this wincon can EVER allow for four scum to be alive, which is what NS's claim says can happen. Vi has had loopholes in wincons before, but never something that outright contradicts a role. What would happen if NS's role turned Town into scum? How many scum would we have to eliminate then? Two? Three? Do you know? I don't.

It just doesn't make sense as a role. I think it's fake, I think he's lying scum, and I want him dead.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

NS, I am assuming your wincon is "You win when two of the three scum in this game are dead." How does this rarefaction ability affect that win-con? Does it mention anything of that sort in your role PM? For instance, if you convert a scum to town, would we still need to kill two more scum or two scum total? The wording of your role doesn't seem to match up with the wincon and the wincon isn't worded in a way to account for a role such as yours. That makes me flip-flop back to NS-scum again. Also, if Tierce was scum and NS-town, she would want NS to use his role on a townie and give her a quicker win instead of pushing his lynch. Yeah, I am doing a 180. Want more thoughts, and Konowa's explanation. He seems to know something about Rarefaction so he might be able to shed some light on it.

Pedit: Ninja'd by Tierce (Tierce is town Now I am convinced). But Tierce, do you think there could be a connection between what Konowa knows and NS's role?

[Nobody Special]

Well, glancing at Konowa's iso, it doesn't sound like he has my ability or something like it; it sounds like he just has an informational-type role. Hopefully, he'll be able to tell us more about that.

I have that wincon, 2 out of 3 scum dead, but no mention is made as to what happens if scum are turned by my action. When I first read it, I just naturally assumed that turning a scum would eliminate them as scum, thus fulfilling one of our two to eliminate. I'll PM Vi and ask; it's a valid question.

Also, Konowa was exhibiting some scum-like avoidance of the thread earlier. Check his iso.

[Tierce]

I think NS's role is completely fabricated and has no regards for balance in this game, therefore has no actual link to Konowa's knowledge claim.

Also, Konowa was exhibiting some scum-like avoidance of the thread earlier. Check his iso.

Kindly eat rope, Mr. Let Me Not Post For Days While Someone Else Is Being Wagoned In My Place.

[Nobody Special]

[Tierce]

Yes, your avoidance of the thread was Perfectly Townish Look At Me I Am Doing So Much Effort To Scumhunt.

Rope goes here. ^^^

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Just re-read. Konowa doesn't know anything about rarefaction. He says that he knows something will happen at the end of the Day Phase and guesses that it may pertain to rarefaction.

I have intent to hammer NS. I am going to do it in an hour or so. The only reason I can see for waiting at this point is to hear from Xalxe, but I don't know if he is going to post soon. I guess the other option is to use the remaining 3 days we have to post more analysis but the day dragged on long enough already and we'll be in a better position to post analysis day 2 after seeing NS's flip as well as the nk.

[Tierce]

Give it 24 hours, please. Input from others = good.

[Shamrock]

Nonsensical claim is nonsensical, but wait for Xalxe to post before hammering.

[saulres]

there are the very likely odds of:
...
2) being redirected by scum.

Why do you see a scum redirector as a "very likely" role for this setup?

I wouldn't put it past Vi to modkill all the scum if a converted scum outs their partners, leading to a town auto-win.

So what should a scum converted to town do, stop playing? Do you expect them to vote for town, against their new wincon? No, I'm thinking

if

your role is real then the theory that the scum don't know each other makes sense. Kind of rules out the "informed minority" part of the game, though, doesn't it?

1. Rarefaction. There is a mechanic that will apply to certain

people

.

Interesting to me that there's been no counter-claim

or

support for his claim, given the use of the plural.

And 'Rarefied' Townie, in addition, doesn't really seem like the wording Vi would use. I'd see "Rarefier" as much more likely.

Agree with that. The use of that term seems to indicate the ability has been used

on

him, and not one

he

could choose to use.

@NS

1. Why did you wait until now to claim, instead of when you were first at L-1?

2. Can you

please

address the issue I brought up in 208? Here, I'll bring the part I'm referring to down for easy reference.

I really think we should use all the time available to us in order to catch scum today.

If you were

really

worried about that, you'd have unvoted. Unless you think I'm scum and both the other scum are already on my wagon.

[Tierce]

there are the very likely odds of:
...
2) being redirected by scum.

Why do you see a scum redirector as a "very likely" role for this setup?

It was shorthand for redirected/roleblocked/otherwise affected. A game this size has to be carefully crafted to not lead to D1 massclaim being game-breaking. Manipulative scum power roles are one of the ways of doing it, and Vi likes giving such abilities to scum.

A redirector would be the most dramatic, as NS's "I claim so now Town is welcome to direct me" statement opens this action to scum tampering, like a redirection (if one of their own is being openly targeted, change the target), or a bus drive (change targets and alter who it hits).

I

do

know that Vi has used scum redirectors before; as an example, see LLD's

Unleash Tierce

(!) ability here.

[Nobody Special]

@NS

1. Why did you wait until now to claim, instead of when you were first at L-1?

2. Can you

please

address the issue I brought up in 208? Here, I'll bring the part I'm referring to down for easy reference.

I really think we should use all the time available to us in order to catch scum today.

If you were

really

worried about that, you'd have unvoted. Unless you think I'm scum and both the other scum are already on my wagon.

1) This is the first time (that I recall) that hammer-intention was stated and that I was asked for a claim.

2) I don't always unvote when wanting to prolong the day; it largely depends on the playerlist and whether I think someone might be an ass and quickhammer. It's different for every situation.

[Konowa]

F-16: I'm starting to come around to the idea that scum are more awkward early game. NS' avoidance of Empire, I believe, is an example of this. Again, I don't think scum are going to be making big cases on their buddies in this game (mechanics and such). So his [Empire] sheeping of Tierce falls into how I think scum would behave (some confirmation bias, I know).

That was jist of reasoning at time of post. Latest post feels like buddy trying to use confusion of NS' claim to try and steer votes away.

As for Shmu, it really is gut. Another larger game I'm in just went to Night, so I'll hopefully be able to focus here better now.

Regarding NS' claim. I'm having a hard time buying it. It just doesn't make sense as either alignment.

[saulres]

I don't always unvote when wanting to prolong the day; it largely depends on the playerlist and whether I think someone might be an ass and quickhammer. It's different for every situation.

And in this situation, you think that scum wouldn't quickhammer because why?

I doubt the claim is accurate as presented. In thinking about it more, a 6:3 setup is already scum-sided. If it's a real ability and he's town, then if he randomly used it at the start of the game without announcing it (thereby not giving scum a chance to redirect or all the other things Tierce is worried about) there'd be a 5-in-8 chance of him ending the game right there. No way would Vi allow that to happen.

[Nobody Special]

I have that wincon, 2 out of 3 scum dead, but no mention is made as to what happens if scum are turned by my action. When I first read it, I just naturally assumed that turning a scum would eliminate them as scum, thus fulfilling one of our two to eliminate. I'll PM Vi and ask; it's a valid question.

Well, I got a wonderfully vague non-answer. (Did anyone expect anything less from Vi?)

It does seem like a weird role that would throw off the balance. I really don't know what to make of it now.