NY 159: RUST game over

[Rob14]

What's your full opinion on Darthe, DGB?

Also, AP, you're blatantly wrong, in my opinion. What on earth led you to your conclusion?

[TheReverend]

I'm down with one of <malp darthe cheery>. I think cheery is least likely of the three.

And fair enough maybe Josh can send the NK in advance, but it seems unlikely to me. Not seeing goof as a great lynch right now.

[Cheery Dog]

No player with 1-shot anything doesn't use it on Night 1, unless he's vig. If they're NK'd or lynched, their one power is wasted.

I don't believe it.

Let's hang Cheery.

We lynched scum day 1, as a minor player in that lynch, I felt it was safe to not use it night 1, yes I could have been killed or lynched, but since at that stage my thoughts of who to use it on were both vigging options, I thought leaving it for one night would be a safer option.
If I was nightkilled night 1, it would still have been a worthless power.

[Rob14]

Message for all my games:

V/LA until Sunday evening because I'm home from college for a day and a half and will be spending time with family.

Message for specifically this game:

Lynch Darthe while I'm gone. I will also accept mal's lynch.

[DrippingGoofball]

No player with 1-shot anything doesn't use it on Night 1, unless he's vig. If they're NK'd or lynched, their one power is wasted.

I don't believe it.

Let's hang Cheery.

We lynched scum day 1, as a minor player in that lynch, I felt it was safe to not use it night 1, yes I could have been killed or lynched, but since at that stage my thoughts of who to use it on were both vigging options, I thought leaving it for one night would be a safer option.
If I was nightkilled night 1, it would still have been a worthless power.

That is a terrible explanation, scum. Every part of it.

[DrippingGoofball]

What's your full opinion on Darthe, DGB?

Also, AP, you're blatantly wrong, in my opinion. What on earth led you to your conclusion?

Stop trying to distract me from Cheeryscum.

[malpascp]

DGB's reasoning on Cheery-scum is the only thing that makes sense in this entire game.

Also I'm V/LA, even though it doesn't matter, because I think all possible reasons to want me lynched were already listed

ad infinitum

.

Vote: Cheery Dog

[Rob14]

What's your full opinion on Darthe, DGB?

Also, AP, you're blatantly wrong, in my opinion. What on earth led you to your conclusion?

Stop trying to distract me from Cheeryscum.

I asked you for an opinion on a player. Cheery is a possible option, but I would also like your perspective on Darthe. If you think he's town, then say so and tell me why. That's not distracting. If you want me to vote Cheery, tell me why I shouldn't be voting Darthe despite all his scummy actions.

[Cheery Dog]

If you believe it makes sense, can you put it into your words please, because I'm agog as to how it makes me scum.

[DrippingGoofball]

Let's lynch the last scum standing.

I won't vote Darthe. I'll think about it if Cheery flips town, which is almost impossible. A one-shot power on night 2? NO. He claimed D3? It's so plain to see that he didn't want to jog his memory and find a believable target for N1. It was easier to make one for N2.

[Cheery Dog]

It's a 1 shot power, not a "must use on first night" power. I'm sorry if you think I should have used it differently. Guess what, people can have different ideas for using their one shot powers.

[DrippingGoofball]

Just let us lynch you. We're winning anyway, right?

[Cheery Dog]

Just because we're in front now doesn't mean it's a guaranteed win. No I'm not going to just let you lynch the only person I know that has no chance whatsoever of being what we're looking for with today's flip.
You'd be more likely to get me to cave in on my result's clear than myself.

[DrippingGoofball]

Just one fewer townie, right? No big deal, don't you think?

UNLESS YOU'RE THE LAST SCUM. Then it's a big deal.

[AngryPidgeon]

DGB votes. Thanks. This Cheery push earns her a cunning manipulator if she actually succeeds with it.

[Cheery Dog]

Just one fewer townie, right? No big deal, don't you think?

UNLESS YOU'RE THE LAST SCUM. Then it's a big deal.

so you would be fine if I joined the wagon Angry is trying to lead?

[Rob14]

AP, can you articulate why you want DGB lynched? The most I got out of your ISO was that she is your only null read and you have all other mild-strong town reads, but she also hadn't been in the game long at that time, so I don't get how you not having a read on her small number of posts is a strong case at all. It's like saying that all the people that I still had null reads on a few pages into the game on Day 1 must be scum. It's silly to judge that a null read is scum when they've just replaced in and the whole slot (counting both Lyman and DGB) had less than 20 posts and nothing overtly scummy). The scum is NOT DGB, in my opinion.

As for the lynch of Cheery, I'm coming around on that issue. I really, really don't like this sentence:

Just because we're in front now doesn't mean it's a guaranteed win.

No I'm not going to just let you lynch the only person I know that has no chance whatsoever of being what we're looking for with today's flip.
You'd be more likely to get me to cave in on my result's clear than myself.

It's a valid statement to make, but I hate the way he phrased it, especially considering that it was responding to this:

Just let us lynch you. We're winning anyway, right?

Also, DGB, a one-shot power night 2 is not impossible. It depends on Cheery's meta for that. I personally use one-shot powers night one on a very rare basis. I only do it if town looks to be ahead OR if I've made myself a huge target for scum. Otherwise, I save it until I have a good target to use it for (while aiming to use it by Night 3, latest). At the same time, using specifically a gunsmith on night 2 with two claimed millers - now that is sketchy because he has the most clear targets possible right in front of him. Even if they are potential vig targets, the potential town gain from using that ability is significantly more than the potential town loss if they're both investigated and vig'd, as gunsmith isn't a great PR anyway considering that it can out vigs and cops. I certainly would have played gunsmith much differently going into Night 1. I would have investigated mal for sure (he had the least content at the time and therefore the more difficult read among the two millers). I would assume most people would have done that as well. If you are town, Cheery, your choice of night actions was incredibly poor.

[DrippingGoofball]

On night 1, you know nothing.

Maybe you'll be vig'ed.
Maybe you'll be SK'd.
Maybe you'll be NK'd by two different scumteams.
Maybe you'll be lynched tomorrow.

You have to use your power night 1.

[Rob14]

If you haven't made yourself a target as strong town, you're unlikely to be SK'd or NK'd. Also, if this happened, your night action means nothing anyway.
If you haven't been a point of major discussion during the day, you're unlikely to be vig'd. Also, if this happened, your night action means nothing anyway.
If you don't play badly and the above two are true, you're unlikely to be lynched.

You don't need to use your power Night 1. I acknowledge your opinion on the matter, but also recognize that plenty of others have different opinions.

In this specific situation, Cheery's actions ARE questionable, though.

[Rob14]

Also, we should stop discussing the merits of the use of one-shot night actions in general. This is a discussion of mafia theory while we should be discussing this specific game. As I said above, in this specific game, Cheery's choice of night actions is anti-town.

[AngryPidgeon]

Well, as the king of phrasing/gut reads, I'll say I have no problem with anything he has said today. The setup is already scum sided, I'll be surprised if any of the PRs are fake.

Cheery's night actions are NOT suspicious. I recently got out of a game in which there were 4 1-shot town PRs and only one was used on the first night. (And it was a mini). I wasn't a holy unreasonable target. I would have GS'd rofl if I had it (clearly that makes me scum for targeting someone largely considered obvtown).

Why would he stop the push on me by claiming? I mean, yes, its possible he faked it. But I highly highly doubt it. Highly. I just don't think Cheery would throw himself out there to prevent a lynch on me unprompted.

DGB gives me all sorts of phrasing/gut reads. I know being a leader is part of her playstyle, but it just feels forced right now given that she JUSt replaced in and hasn't read a whole lot. Her Cheery push is scummy and she should feel scummy.

[ProHawk]

I just don't think Cheery would throw himself out there to prevent a lynch on me unprompted.

Town-cred. Especially in your eyes.

Why a 1-shot with two millers? 1 shot with 1 miller makes sense, or 2 shot with two millers.

[AngryPidgeon]

Because I don't think GS / miller roles are opposing roles. Why have a 0 shot then with 2 millers?

[Cheery Dog]

Also, DGB, a one-shot power night 2 is not impossible. It depends on Cheery's meta for that. I personally use one-shot powers night one on a very rare basis. I only do it if town looks to be ahead OR if I've made myself a huge target for scum. Otherwise, I save it until I have a good target to use it for (while aiming to use it by Night 3, latest). At the same time, using specifically a gunsmith on night 2 with two claimed millers - now that is sketchy because he has the most clear targets possible right in front of him. Even if they are potential vig targets, the potential town gain from using that ability is significantly more than the potential town loss if they're both investigated and vig'd, as gunsmith isn't a great PR anyway considering that it can out vigs and cops. I certainly would have played gunsmith much differently going into Night 1. I would have investigated mal for sure (he had the least content at the time and therefore the more difficult read among the two millers). I would assume most people would have done that as well. If you are town, Cheery, your choice of night actions was incredibly poor.

Day 1 was ending with lots of "vig the millers", I figured that one of the people shouting that probably was actually a miller. (well one of the people saying to doctor you was a doctor who doctored you, so there was quite the possibility)
You then never actually said who you were going to target nor did Taz, and both of you claimed to have a vig shot to use using night 2, since there was still a option of that targeting the remaining miller claim, I never went there either. Had Taz not actually lied about how many shots he had, I probably would have used it on malp night 2.
In the end I decided to use it on Angry, and for some reason he decided to go out a fake guilty, I did not know that was coming, but clearing town doing stupid moves means my night actions worked out fine.

My meta with one shots before this game is micro 17, where I was a 1-shot delayed cop, which I used on night 1. (to get a result night 2) Given that this game has double the amount of players (-1), and ZI didn't think I was a likely nightkill target or lynch for the next day, I held off using it straight away.
I feel stupid not having brought up gunsmiths on day one to make sure I had a clear shot at them, but my target dying is as much a waste of a 1-shot as myself dying.
Had I been a full gunsmith I would have definitely targeted the millers, but 1-shot and what appeared in the thread to be calls for having them vigged, I decided not to.
You can call my actions stupid all you like, but your own night action which was able to clear a miller by killing them was also not used on said millers.

When there are people trying to direct actions in the thread, and said actions are not stupid ideas, then as someone who is generally sitting at the back of the pack, such as myself, is likely to believe said ideas are going to happen if possible. I would much rather people didn't try to direct others actions, as then I wouldn't have the possibility of another actions ruining my own thought processes.

[Rob14]

I just don't think Cheery would throw himself out there to prevent a lynch on me unprompted.

Town-cred. Especially in your eyes.

Why a 1-shot with two millers? 1 shot with 1 miller makes sense, or 2 shot with two millers.

The 1-shot vs. 2-shot is not necessarily true.

As for the town-cred, Cheery would get boatloads of it while making someone obv-town. The "making someone obv-town" would be very pro-town and make him likely not scum

if you were not already such obv-town.

People were pissed with your gambit. Besides rofl, I don't think anyone honestly wanted to lynch you because you looked scummy. It was mostly a policy lynch push - a push led partially by CKD-scum, IIRC. Essentially, scum loses very little by making a obv-town into a confirmed-town but gains a lot in town-cred. This isn't anti-town, per se, but there's a big scum motivation for Cheery's actions.

Also, reaching back a post, I've already stated that one-shots can easily use actions after night one. But

in this specific situation

gunsmith should have been used night one. Imagine how Day 2 would have gone if we had a gunsmith-guilty or gunsmith-innocent on Mal or a gunsmith-innocent on BC. Now think about how Day 2 (or the rest of the game) would have gone had we lost the gunsmith ability due to the vig-target being the same as the gunsmith-target (already unlikely because we had no claimed vig and two millers to choose from if one existed). How would it differ from what we have now? Basically not at all. Not only does this reinforce my earlier point that Cheery's contribution as claimed gunsmith could be easily scum-motivated, but it also shows how he should have used his action night 1 given the circumstances because of how heavily it would have helped out the town.

And damn it DGB, I'm talking myself into voting Cheery. I want to re-ISO him and the confirmed scum to check for some stuff first, though. Is there any way to ISO people together? Like make a timeline of all posts from four people in the game? Not sure if you can.