Micro 76 - Mafia in Verona (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote: Malakittens

[Equinox]

Unvote, Vote: DeasVail

[Equinox]

it's peta this time guys.

Deas is innocent.

How do you figure this?

Equinox bandwagoning like that isn't bothering me and nor is it reading as scum since he did it as town last game.

*sniffs Malakittens*

[Equinox]

Yeah, okay.

No voting Malakittens, DeasVail, or mykonian.

N might be town based on a skim I did last night except I don't remember why and didn't happen to recall why when I reread this thread, so I will retry later.

In other news, IceGuy gets the first dance.

Unvote, Vote: IceGuy

[Equinox]

Looks like I quickly became the top wagon.

What do you think of your wagon?

[Equinox]

Kill the people on it with fire.

You might melt trying to do that to so many people at once.

[Equinox]

:S

IceGuy hasn't tried to telegraph anything, so I guess this dance was somewhat of a success.

Unvote, Vote: Konowa

[Equinox]

Back early, though nothing in-depth from me until tomorrow.

Equinox, if IG is scum and about to be lynched, scum do not have a kill. So why does it matter if he hasn't tried to telegraph anything?

That post did not happen.

Did not.

If IG is scum, I think it's pretty clear that Equinox is his partner due to the timing of her vote switch.

So how does the converse of this hold?

or it's because he was playing like scum and reacted like scum?

What do you think of IceGuy's reactions since he was put at L-1?

Can I tempt anyone with a DeasVail wagon? I can't remember my reasons for voting for him off the top of my head, but I'm sure they were good!

No, man, you're going to need a proper song and dance for a DeasVail wagon to happen, so why are you on it?

[Equinox]

Equinox, can you convince me of IceGuy-town?

I was going to answer this, except I just noticed something that invalidates what I had on IceGuy.

Ask me again once StefanB has posted some.

[Equinox]

Still willing to vote Konowa if necessary for a lynch.

What did you have on Konowa, then, if it wasn't the QT tell? Despite discovering that Konowa didn't actually commit the tell, you didn't say anything else about him.

(Nice case, BTW. Ihihi.)

[Equinox]

For Konowa, it doesn't look like he's trying to look town from his play, and I felt his Iceguy vote was a little less likely from scum if Equinox is town (and I tend to assume someone's town for the purpose of relational things until I know otherwise), but it's not like I'd be surprised if he was scum.

Um... what? Could you expand on this a little more? I don't get how you'd get an associative read based on a read you don't apparently have.

[Equinox]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Konowa

*twitch*

Can you answer post 194, please?

Also, what are you doing on Konowa and petapan when you've got an actual case on someone else entirely?

I'm not sure I can explain the assuming people are town thing.

Hmm. Is this something you typically do?

[Equinox]

Yeah, no.

Unvote, Vote: IceGuy

[Equinox]

Good luck getting him to answer that. He wouldn't even tell me why he suddenly dropped his real actual case-backed-with-shiny-words scum read like a hot potato.

[Equinox]

Can an IceGuy lynch be something that can happen and will happen within the next day or so? Because it'd be awesome and scum lynches are much tastier than turkey leftovers?

I'll be back in the morning to actually sit down and read this game for once to see what's up with mykonian. Definitely not lynching petapan, though; pretty sure he's town now.

[Equinox]

Unvote, Vote: mykonian

[Equinox]

Vote: No Lynch

[Equinox]

Hmm. Actually...

Mod: In a situation where town does not lynch for X Days and scum submit but fail to execute kills for X Nights consecutively, will the game end in a happily ever after draw?

In the meantime, say nothing about anyone until we sort out whether to run with high-information Day or low-information Day, since there are pros and cons to both that are roughly equal in my mind but let me think on this a little more.

Preview edit: True. If we go with that, though, I think we should limit the discussion somehow to prevent (or at least make it harder) for scum to telegraph information to each other, like no discussing town reads.

[Equinox]

Excellent.

Scum won't want to draw at this point, so we can force them into using what they said on Day 1 to choose their kill, and we can analyze if they succeed.

[Equinox]

You should explain at some point.

[Equinox]

Actually, Konowa shouldn't explain.

IceGuy should, seeing as he has now suddenly recalled that he had a case on me.

[Equinox]

Since there is nothing to go off except D1, it's obviously about D1. See here.

So far, there has been no explanation from Equinox for their behavior. Only response was this:

(Nice case, BTW. Ihihi.)

Nothing, eh? I'm sure that, apart from all the things that happened toward the end of Day 1, there were other things that happened since, including the No Lynch votes.

I basically brush off your case, and what do you do? You forget all about it until it's LyLo and someone pipes up saying, "Equinox looks like scum!"

[Equinox]

And that was yet another post you made without actually acknowledging my points.

I have already acknowledged the points of your case. I called it a nice case and had a laugh about it.

Here's my problem: You couldn't get me lynched and decided to go for someone else. That would have been fine, except you did practically nothing to push for me; you posted a case, and you then chose to not respond to me when I deliberately ignored said case when that behavior is, according to you now, a scum tell. After that, it's just hopping on Konowa and then petapan as the winds changed.

Equinox suggesting No Lynch

should've

made her an obvious kill. Don't get into the "Well, scum are going to leave her alive for WIFOM". At first, I thought Equinox's No Lynch plan was a good idea. Now, I've come around to the belief that its just a delaying tactic to give scum more of a chance to submit kills correctly.

That assumes that both scum read me the same way.

Your point about No Lynch being a delaying tactic is incorrect, though, as scum would have had a better chance of winning in MyLo.

[Equinox]

So you refuse to comment my case in any way?

It's useless, isn't it? It's all useless!

Equinox, do you think 138 is a buddy post?

Doesn't read like it to me.

[Equinox]

Hey Equinox, learn anything from analyzing the NK yet?

No. I read up to about page 7 yesterday. Might do some more today.

[Equinox]

Fun fact: IceGuy hasn't telegraphed anything because he hasn't said anything about anyone. Add that he ended Day 1 by being suspicious of petapan and thus would not have been in the mindset to go "hey let's go kill that guy" right off on Night 1 and doubts start to happen. His case on me is full of shit though and I want to stab him with a rake.

Actually have someone in mind but apparently coyness is the way to not-boredom so questions:

N, what's your read of Equinox?

Konowa, what's your read of N?

Would prefer N answer that before Konowa does.

CF Riot, vote aside, what do you think of IceGuy?

[Equinox]

I think he's scum and I think your reasons for doubting him being scum are weaksauce.

How so?

[Equinox]

I think assuming the scum team must have telegraphed their kills because of the setup is dumb. Yes, if there were something that stood out that looked like waving at a target, then you could make that case and I'd listen, but I think it's just as likely if not more that both scum individually picked someone they thought would make a good kill and hoped their teammate was on the same page. You pointing out his lack of telegraphing a target as a point in his favor is therefore super bogus.

On the other hand, if IceGuy didn't telegraph anything, do you really think he'd have been in the mindset where killing petapan was an option right after mykonian got lynched and flipped town? Seems more likely he'd have thought of petapan as a possible mislynch after that mess, considering what people tend to think of competing wagons.

You still haven't explained why I should be scum.

Nor did anyone else, by the way.

On the other other hand, this is garbage.

Also, why haven't you voted me yet?

You haven't really done much. You got on my Mala wagon in RVS, which is good, even if DV derailed it before anything could happen.

You were also the one that suggested voting no lynch, which sounded like a good idea at the time, but as Konowa said, it could be a delaying tactic in this set-up where there's no night-talk. I see where Konowa's coming from there: it's put an extra 5 (or so) rl days between the mykonian lynch and when we actually start discussing, and that added time makes it a bit harder to remember who said what.

I know what I did in this game and why. I want to know what you think my alignment is. Also, who's scum? That's something you haven't answered yet today.

Incidentally, why did you think No Lynch was a good idea at the time?

[Equinox]

Also, why haven't you voted me yet?

Because LyLo.

When is the right time to vote in LyLo, then?

[Equinox]

IceGuy being unlikely to target Peta is a decent thought but I don't think it is related to him not signaling a target. Had you just made this point it'd hold more weight with me but using a lack of evidence as a supplement in his favor makes me wary of it. At this point I'm assuming you didn't find evidence of anyone telegraphing a target otherwise you'd have said something by now, so I don't see why you would feel it was worth mentioning in IG's case.

@Konowa the wording of your last post is sort of confusing but assuming we lynch scum today we won't get two shots at lynching the buddy. And now the reason no lynching was stupid suddenly clicks with me. We gave up a mislynch. Willingly. I knew it felt wrong but I couldn't put together why. I'm coming around to an Equinox lynch.

I did find someone, actually, but I'm playing a game of 20 Questions before I reveal who that is because the evidence is fairly weak and I want to make sure I'm not going into weird paranoia mode or something.

How did we give up a mislynch? The game was in MyLo at that point. If we had lynched town, that would have been gambling on the scum not knowing who to kill.

[Equinox]

If we'd lynched scum, the last scum would have lost their kill for that night and we'd go into a 4:1 day. Now if we lynch scum they still lose their kill but we hit 3:1 so our best course of action is to no lynch again to force a 2:1 endgame.

You are still gambling on the chance that we would have lynched correctly in that MyLo. If we had lynched correctly, then, yes, my method lost us an opportunity to mislynch. However, if we had not, then the point would have been rendered moot.

Maximize your chance of getting through the first hurdle before worrying about the second.

[Equinox]

K I'm getting bored. Equinox what are we waiting on with your telegraphing NKs thing? Also you're full of turkey with regards to the above but I don't even care about that right now.

Right now? Don't know. Maybe nothing. I got the answers I asked for. Right now, though, this is pissing me off. You accuse me of putting out a plan that you don't agree with and is thus a scum tell. I tell you why it's stupid to have done it your way. You blow me off without even bothering to refute it while still insisting that my way is the scum way.

Fuck off.

[Equinox]

No, actually, don't fuck off. I got a real itch.

How is what I said "full of turkey"? Explain it. No bullshit. You had objections on Day 3 that you actually verbalized, but you never tried to stop it -- you just hammered, even though you had previous opposition from Day 2 from two other people. Now is your chance.

Day 2, 2 out of 6. Let's go.

[Equinox]

No really? You actually want to argue this subject with me? Your plan is Totes McGotes the scum play for our D2 situation. Your whole post is just a big excuse not to post your reads though, which is a much bigger deal than me proving to you why you made the right play for your team (read: not my team) out of the box D2.

pedit: oh snap. Can I smoke first? Nah, I'll drop a post but then you gotta let me smoke for like 10.

You think I am incapable of faking my reads on the spot as scum? Oh, you.

Yes, I am going to argue this with you because the moment I put up resistance, you throw your hands up and don't want to play. Fat chance. I want to know that there's turkey to carve and not just hot air.

[Equinox]

Unless somebody tells me not to, I will vote Equinox in approximately 10 hours from now.

Vote: IceGuy

[Equinox]

(So far no one has mentioned this helping but you, and you haven't actually told any of the rest of us how it's helped.)

Nobody else besides Konowa has volunteered to go back into the thread to look at this, which is a curious thing in itself. Don't worry, it's there.

Pro: We have 1 less target.
Con: Plus this drops the ratio of townvotes to scum votes required for the lynch.

Counter: You have one more target and thus a greater margin of error. I don't know about you -- or maybe I do -- but there was no one we could agree on being town.

Con: Plus we now have 0 room for error because we cannot mislynch again.

Oh my god.

We couldn't fucking mislynch in the first place!

Look at you. You're calling

me

scum. Since you're so damned confident, imagine you did that yesterday, and imagine for once that I'm town and you get IceGuy and maybe IceGuy's buddy to lynch me.

You lose the game.

Scum had a chance to shoot me with my plan and get rid of that. Just turns out they didn't and I have to deal with the goddamned Hulk.

My plan: 4:2, nut up and lynch scum -> 4:1
Pro: Town to scum ratio on D2 is more favorable for town.
Pro: Town to scum ratio on D3 after a successful lynch is much more favorable for town.
Pro: If a mislynch happens D2, there's still a small window of opportunity for scum to punt and town to make a comeback.
Pro: If a mislynch happens D3 after succesful D2, it's not game over.
Con: There is one more innocent suspect town must avoid lynching.

Again, you are assuming that you are going to succeed

the first time around

. Considering the state of the game at the time, what do you think that was?

Con?: Limited NK info.

Your problem, not mine.

Anyway thanks for arguing but my god if I could bash your head in and not throw the game for it, I totally would.

[Equinox]

Now I'm scum again? You're flip-flopping all over the place.

You always were. I was just stupid for a moment.

Our little game of chicken is over, boy. Slap a vote down and let's get this over with.

[Equinox]

Just remembered something.

CF Riot, you keep harping on 4:2 MyLo being a bad time to No Lynch, yet you have no problem arguing that 3:1 MyLo is a time where we have to No Lynch and thus this is how we lose our mislynch.

Think about that for a second and you'll see where I was coming from with not lynching on Day 2.

[Equinox]

Still waiting for the NK analysis. Still.

I'm sorry. Another patron has already checked out

NK Analysis

. Shall I put a hold on it for you?

You are not getting it just because you jump up and down and cry for it. It will come when I say it will. Deal with it.

[Equinox]

If you haven't noticed, I don't really care when you post it, if ever. I'm just pointing out your continued feet dragging to the other players to help them see what I see.

Voting might help.

[Equinox]

CF Riot's whining is getting rather annoying, so I'mma speed this along instead of waiting for it to happen naturally.

Hey, N. Read of IceGuy, go.

[Equinox]

This game.

Quick post and then I'm ignoring this game for a while to cool off.

If you're so convinced that absolutely nothing from me is going to change your mind, don't bother with the pissing contest. Vote me and get it over with because, hell, you can't possibly be wrong and so I can't possibly get hammered on your watch.

Just don't sit there and call me scum all day and do sweet fuck all about it, though, because then you're not being productive but being an asshat.

Once N has finished picking the thread to death, go back and look at his posts, specifically the ones where he refers to petapan and DeasVail, the former referring to a town read (I think, not going to bother going back to check) and the latter referring to DeasVail "lynching himself" (paraphrase, yadda yadda). I was hoping to see him react to IceGuy votes on his own, but right now all I'm thinking about is how to not get modkilled for incivility so you lot can deal with that yourself. Add that his read of me is fairly weak -- he called DeasVail scum for asking questions and not following up, but he does not do the same to me when that's the same thing I've done for a large part of the game.

And look at IceGuy continue to react in no meaningful way to anything of significance while inching his way to the bandwagon that's going to win him the game.

Don't bother lynching CF Riot or Konowa. CF Riot is aggravating as all hell, but he's not scum, especially after Micro 19 where he was pretty much dead fish. Konowa's paranoia at the beginning of Day 4 feels genuine. Also, there's nothing from him that tripped any flags when I checked him in isolation, so he and IceGuy don't work as a pair anyhow.

Peace out.

[Equinox]

Also, I would like to see what Equinox has to say now it's obvious IceGuy and I aren't partners.

Well, bully for you.

I'd probably just toss a coin and call it a day.

Ho ho ho.