Marketplace Mafia II - Game Over

[greygnarl]

UNVOTE:

What do you think of MoI;s death?

[callforjudgement]

Oh, PEBWOP: Mehdi, the reason I get concerned at coming up with your own innovation after a strategy is agreed is that it gives cover for other people to do the same thing.

@Phillamon: I think Elmo was trying to follow the strategy and just screwed up.

[callforjudgement]

@greygnarl: I'd forgotten about MoI's death, finding it now. My memory was jogged when I saw his last few posts, haven't found the death itself though yet. And it's a pretty clear unambiguous non-entrepreneur-slip. I'm a little confused as to how that sort of problem got into the setup, though.

Note to self: Read 324 once I've found the death itself.

[callforjudgement]

Also wow there was a lot of spam between MoI's last post and the actual flip.

[Mehdi2277]

Except I'm kind of the only one who could break the plan (unless you think someone like guille could just break it and be fine) and role wise doing it since I would have talked to GB and been able to still know what's happening to my money is a bit different then giving him full control of it.

Honestly just being stubborn on this though.

[greygnarl]

I say the most logical course of action is lynch Shamrock now and Seanald tomorrow.

cfj: Whoever we decide to lynch then you take their place on the table I made.

[Tazaro]

Note to self: Read 324 once I've found the death itself.

I find the "note to self" a town tell

[callforjudgement]

@GreyICE: What's your opinion on MoI's slip? Do you think he was town without a QT offer, or do you think he was town with a QT offer but who hadn't seen it, or something else?

@Mehdi: Is GB confirmed town from your point of view? If not, do you nonetheless believe him/her to be likely/almost certain town? And did GB approve of your plan in advance?

I don't really think Mehdi is scum any more, btw; the reaction's not ragey enough to be likely to be scum who think they're caught for the wrong reasons.

[callforjudgement]

BTW, anyone here familiar with Seanald's meta? I don't know it but people are acting like he has a reputation.

[Tazaro]

GB flipped town; he was killed.

[callforjudgement]

248 Pitty, how do you know what a scum PM looks like?

@Tazaro: thanks, haven't reached that bit yet.

[callforjudgement]

EBWOP: Oh, I see you explained in 261. Yeah, I agree with other people that that just looks like a mistake, rather than anything sinister.

[greygnarl]

248 Pitty, how do you know what a scum PM looks like?

@Tazaro: thanks, haven't reached that bit yet.

On second thought I'm feeling weird about this post. Magua probably gave scums the PM soon after and Pitty could've defended MoI and still acted town.

[callforjudgement]

Currently leaning quite strong scum on GreyICE (330 in addition to the one I already mentioned). Also, basically 100% isn't scum with BBmolla, but with BB probably town that isn't saying much.

VOTE: GreyICE Might change as I catch up further, but I like always having a vote out.

[Shamrock]

I've been procrastinating on this game because I keep thinking about writing a catchup post and not wanting to do it, so I'm just gonna not do it, because otherwise I'll just keep not posting.

Someone should ask me things.

[callforjudgement]

Err, add 340/341 too

Shamrock, you can tell me your opinion on GreyICE, if you want something in particular to talk about. I want to know if other people think I'm vaguely on the right track here (and if I still do once I've finished catching up).

[Tazaro]

Err, add 340/341 too

Shamrock, you can tell me your opinion on GreyICE, if you want something in particular to talk about. I want to know if other people think I'm vaguely on the right track here (and if I still do once I've finished catching up).

Shamrock is a replacement for GreyICE's slot. Amend your vote.

[callforjudgement]

Bleh, this is what I get for not reading the entire thread before posting, but I felt seeing my thought process would be useful for other people.

VOTE: Shamrock

And I guess I'll have to ask Shamrock a different question. Shamrock, what do you think of BBmolla's alignment?

[Shamrock]

He becomes pretty obvious town by the end of D1.

[callforjudgement]

Salamence, 457 Why do you think GI/Shamrock and MoI aren't buddies? I'm not sure I really understand your reasoning. Thanks for making that post, anyway.

[callforjudgement]

OK, so 696 is the post where the breaking strategy was first devised, and by SPB.

I've been thinking about the strategy. The main (only?) issue is that we have to wait an entire day to determine whether the transfer was made or not, giving scum two chances to kill transfer targets in order to hide the fact that they didn't transfer. Last night's bids strongly imply that scum are mostly planning to follow the strategy (or there would have been more bids); I'm not yet sure what that means. (Also the nightkill on GB implies that we won't learn if Seanald transferred or not, meaning that he's the prime suspect for people who bought the NK.) Oh, as such, the town probably wants control of Blind Bid, so we know which abilities went to town and which went to scum.

[callforjudgement]

Also, if two people claim noticeably different amounts of remaining money (say $100 and $200), you can have them both transfer to the same person if you want, because you'll be able to distinguish between them by amount received. (Unless scum transfer some extra money in order to confuse the town about who it was didn't transfer, which is potentially quite the problem with that plan.)

[callforjudgement]

Eidolon can confirm her role by neighbourizing someone of the town's choice tonight. Not sure if that's worth doing (she's unlikely to be lying because she claimed something so confirmable), also not sure if directing it is in the town's interests, but it's something I noticed that might be worth mentioning.

[callforjudgement]

Oh, another realization with the current strategy which is potentially really bad: scum will probably be locked down from winning any auctions for a few days, but any scum recipients can invest every night meanwhile, and that'll give the scum enough money to absolutely blow out an auction some time in the future if they want to. This is not necessarily a disaster, but at that point we'll have to defeat scum entirely with day play. If several voting-related roles end up in unknown hands, we should move to purely FoSes until we've decided on a lynch. (That's not necessary yet, though, and we shouldn't do it until we have to because it'll hurt efficiency.)

[PeregrineV]

I think Eid is gone also.

Back here, will be catching up today.