Marketplace Mafia II - Game Over

[SlumberPartyBois]

Response from MattP:

Current read on Shamrock I will not be answering right now

I still have a townread on Tammy, and I never said anything otherwise. Please quote exactly what made you think I didn't

Please explain why you want my read on Seanald.

[Magua]

Vote Count 2.15

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

callforjudgement (5): Guille2015, StefanB, Phillammon, VoidedMafia, Salamence20
Shamrock (3): Mehdi2277, callforjudgement, Tammy
PeregrineV (3): greygnarl, Tazaro, SlumberPartyBois
Phillammon (2): BBmolla, Seanald
Mehdi2277 (1): PeregrineV

Not Voting (3): Shamrock, Nero Cain, Pitty

Deadline is November 20th, at 11:00pm EST (site time).
Countdown to deadline:

(expired on 2012-11-20 23:00:00)

[callforjudgement]

Response from MattP:

Current read on Shamrock I will not be answering right now

I still have a townread on Tammy, and I never said anything otherwise. Please quote exactly what made you think I didn't

Please explain why you want my read on Seanald.

Read on Tammy: I misread 205 as saying that GB was your only townread (which would imply Tammy wasn't). I just read the post again and you didn't say that (you said ""Not because he's my only townread, but because he's my only townread I consider coherent enough to actually direct it in a positive manner."), so it's OK, just a misunderstanding.

With respect to Seanald, it's because you were pushing him really heavily day 1, and haven't really been since. I was wondering whether that was because you didn't think he was scum any more, because you thought he was scum but thought lynching him today would nonetheless be a bad idea, or because you thought he was scum but other wagons would be more fruitful.

In particular, the reasoning behind post 1725 in general was that I was trying to understand why you voted PV, and was reading your ISO as a result. There were two players who were obvious alternatives (Shamrock because the wagon was larger and growing, Seanald because you'd been pretty heavily into lynching them in the past), so the question in my mind was why you'd voted PV over them.

[guille2015]

I have been distracted from this game by other things. I'll have to reread the day anyways, but I have caught up on a few things.

Callforjudgement likely town. I am satisfied with his response. Elmo flaked and his posting is reflective of that.

Unvote

[Tazaro]

The distance between Elmo's play and that of callforjudgement's is stark. It is an interesting development to PeregrineV's getting two people on his wagon, but why is the case on Shamrock not clear to me?

[callforjudgement]

The distance between Elmo's play and that of callforjudgement's is stark. It is an interesting development to PeregrineV's getting two people on his wagon, but why is the case on Shamrock not clear to me?

Shamrock's hardly posted, the read on the slot is mostly based on GreyICE. Some of the arguments in favour include his major opposition to BB early on (a bit stronger than you'd expect for a reaction to a miller claim, and it includes a bunch of SK speculation!), hypocrisy in 340 (read a few posts on either side in his ISO and see how much signal GreyICE was putting out just then), and trying to direct the kill away from MoI (324), together with completely glossing over the MoI slip.
He's also linked with Seanald (312, 324), although that doesn't mean much if Seanald turns out town.

[PeregrineV]

He becomes pretty obvious town by the end of D1.

So you read day1?

Why do you thinscum advertised nieghbiorizor so heavily?

Is Eidolon/Nero Magua's way of toying with town, or is that slot the SK?

[PeregrineV]

@Tammy- thoughts on 1713

[StefanB]

Unvote

: Still wished the slot wasn't invistigation imunue and I this beeing out of the game would have been good, but Elmo beeing an idiot is a big chance.

Hm, will look trough stuff now.

Rereading Grey it was probably good he replaced out, but I don't get a scumfealing from him here, more anoyed town (for Grey).

Sorry I don't have so much time and energy for this game at the moment.

P-edit: Scum has a plan with Neighborizer, if both teams used, one for nightkill the other for advertising.

Everythink else went for 1 $.

[Tazaro]

P-edit:

Scum has a plan with Neighborizer

, if both teams used, one for nightkill the other for advertising.

Is

this

why PeregrineV for some reason indicate he has neighborizer on his mind a few posts ago?

[Tazaro]

*indicates

[StefanB]

Tazaro: I can't read minds, but scum used 190 for the nk and advertised.
I believe it was stated by Peregrine a lot.
Everythink else went for 1 $.
It actually means that Mehdi (claimed Neighborizer) is more likly town. (Why would scum need that if they already have neighborizer Mehdi?) among other thinks.
I think her obvioustown maisonplan is the better one, if scum is in danger of getting it. (No revealing why at the moment)

[callforjudgement]

@Tazaro: Neighbourizer was advertised last night, contrary to what everyone had agreed and what we'd planned. Nobody's claimed doing that, so it seems very likely that scum did it, and people are trying to work out why.

The three theories I have:

• PeregrineV is scum, and didn't advertise Cop as planned, meaning that something else could cheaply be advertised by him or someone else (and Neighbourizer happened to be next);
  
• One of the scumteams has located the other scumteam, and is trying to use Neighbourizer to generate a shared QT (this implicates Seanald, but also seems a little impractical). Note that if a hypothetical scum Mehdi is on the located scumteam rather than the locating scumteam, they could still need Neighbourizer for that purpose despite it being in scum hands already.
  
• The scum are scared enough of Cop that they advertised something else to prevent it falling into the Town's hands (in that case, why not pick Tailor or Investigation Immune, though?)

It could even be a combination of these. Or I might have missed a reason.

Incidentally, if PeregrineV is telling the truth about last night's actions, we're going to get Cop advertised tonight unless someone pays even more for another ability. We can learn a lot by looking at what ability is shown as most advertised right at the start of the night; I'm expecting it to be Cop, but if it's something else, then either PeregrineV is guilty or there's a bunch of scumteam dissonance going on (which wouldn't be surprising, given the disjointed scumteams). We need to work out what we're advertising tonight, too, and it should almost certainly be one of the two really protown roles that have come up, Cop and Watcher. (Watcher will be more powerful than Cop when the game gets smaller, because predicting the nightkill is normally easier than predicting scum, also there's a bunch of anti-Cop roles floating around and fewer anti-Wacher roles.) Both of those roles are useful for scum, because they're trying to find scum just like town is, but for different reasons.

I also don't want to leave the same person advertising twice in a row, ever. This means that if we get unusual advertising results, it'll be easier to work out who's responsible.

[StefanB]

On point against scum Peregrine is:
What did scumteam 2 with the money? Only invest?

[callforjudgement]

On point against scum Peregrine is:
What did scumteam 2 with the money? Only invest?

Most of them will have been transferring money, like the plan says they should; they'll be caught tomorrow morning if they didn't transfer last night unless they kill specific players (this is why they need the nightkill, incidentally). (They'll have some money left over, whatever the difference is between what the scum get and what a townie in their position would have; trying to work this out would be easier if we knew how much it was, but we won't until we check the total money in the game, which should give a hint.) We know that at least two of the scum could afford to do things last night; the advertising was interfered with either via outside aid or via Peregrine, and someone outbid town on the nightkill. This is either because they had a mindboggingly large amount of money, or because they're a recipient in the plan rather than a donor, or because they didn't transfer and are either planning to be sacrificed day 3 or to hide the evidence via kills. I don't expect the scum would let themselves be caught via breaking strategy if they could help it, so probably as many as the scum will have transferred as they could afford.

Also, if the scum could afford to interfere with advertising, they could likely afford to win a role instead. Why didn't they? Is Neighbourizer in rotation and Cop out of rotation more valuable to them than a role from yesterday's list? (Thinking about it, possibly yes it is, but it's still not the most obvious course of action.)

[PeregrineV]

@Tazaro: Neighbourizer was advertised last night, contrary to what everyone had agreed and what we'd planned. Nobody's claimed doing that, so it seems very likely that scum did it, and people are trying to work out why.

The three theories I have:

• PeregrineV is scum,
  and didn't advertise Cop as planned
  , meaning that something else could cheaply be advertised by him or someone else (and Neighbourizer happened to be next);

It's been evidenced that the bolded is not relevant.

One of the scumteams has located the other scumteam, and is trying to use Neighbourizer to generate a shared QT (this implicates Seanald, but also seems a little impractical).

Note that if a hypothetical scum Mehdi is on the located scumteam rather than the locating scumteam, they could still need Neighbourizer for that purpose despite it being in scum hands already.

Did anyone mention this already?
Also, unless you know something I don't, scumA can only locate scumB the same way town can- using the cop ability. And I don't get the bolded sentence. What does that mean?

The scum are scared enough of Cop that they advertised something else to prevent it falling into the Town's hands (in that case, why not pick Tailor or Investigation Immune, though?)

I think you self-explained why they didn't pick neighborizor out of fear of cop. That means they have a use for it.

Incidentally, if PeregrineV is telling the truth about last night's actions, we're going to get Cop advertised tonight unless someone pays even more for another ability. We can learn a lot by looking at what ability is shown as most advertised right at the start of the night; I'm expecting it to be Cop, but if it's something else, then either PeregrineV is guilty or there's a bunch of scumteam dissonance going on (which wouldn't be surprising, given the disjointed scumteams). We need to work out what we're advertising tonight, too, and it should almost certainly be one of the two really protown roles that have come up, Cop and Watcher. (Watcher will be more powerful than Cop when the game gets smaller, because predicting the nightkill is normally easier than predicting scum, also there's a bunch of anti-Cop roles floating around and fewer anti-Wacher roles.) Both of those roles are useful for scum, because they're trying to find scum just like town is, but for different reasons.

I also don't want to leave the same person advertising twice in a row, ever. This means that if we get unusual advertising results, it'll be easier to work out who's responsible.

Actually, advertise carries over, so any new ability advertised has to beat my money plus the new money tonight.

[Nero Cain]

hello. Who are we killing and why?

[PeregrineV]

Tazaro: I can't read minds, but scum used 190 for the nk and advertised.
I believe it was stated by Peregrine a lot.
Everythink else went for 1 $.
It actually means that Mehdi (claimed Neighborizer) is more likly town. (Why would scum need that if they already have neighborizer Mehdi?) among other thinks.
I think her obvioustown maisonplan is the better one, if scum is in danger of getting it. (No revealing why at the moment)

@Stefan- There was an SK last game. Do you think the SK bought the NK?

If scum had neighborizor through Medhi, why do you think they wouldn't want further uses of it? We have 2 cops and we want more.

[PeregrineV]

hello. Who are we killing and why?

We had a plan of people passing money to limit scum using it. 6 passed to 6 I think, and 4 did not. 1713 is my latest take on last night's plan, posted here: 1127

[Nero Cain]

hello. Who are we killing and why?

We had a plan of people passing money to limit scum using it. 6 passed to 6 I think, and 4 did not. 1713 is my latest take on last night's plan, posted here: 1127

ok...............that tells me nothing about why CAJ is the leading wagon. Why did you respond to my question but not answer it?

[PeregrineV]

hello. Who are we killing and why?

We had a plan of people passing money to limit scum using it. 6 passed to 6 I think, and 4 did not. 1713 is my latest take on last night's plan, posted here: 1127

ok...............that tells me nothing about why CAJ is the leading wagon. Why did you respond to my question but not answer it?

Sorry, you have to do some reading.

CFJ replaced/is carrying votes from Elmo.

[callforjudgement]

@Tazaro: Neighbourizer was advertised last night, contrary to what everyone had agreed and what we'd planned. Nobody's claimed doing that, so it seems very likely that scum did it, and people are trying to work out why.

The three theories I have:

• PeregrineV is scum,
  and didn't advertise Cop as planned
  , meaning that something else could cheaply be advertised by him or someone else (and Neighbourizer happened to be next);

It's been evidenced that the bolded is not relevant.

It is relevant; if you didn't advertise Cop, then Neighbourizer would have been cheaper to advertise. (Think of it this way: if, hypothetically, you're scum and the other half of the scumteam didn't interfere, you could have advertised Neighbourizer for $1 and it would have won. If, hypothetically, you're town and did as you were told, scum would need to pay a huge amount to beat you.)

One of the scumteams has located the other scumteam, and is trying to use Neighbourizer to generate a shared QT (this implicates Seanald, but also seems a little impractical).

Note that if a hypothetical scum Mehdi is on the located scumteam rather than the locating scumteam, they could still need Neighbourizer for that purpose despite it being in scum hands already.

Did anyone mention this already?

The nonbolded part was first mentioned in 1142, only a few posts from the start of the day. (And it's pretty obvious, really.)
Rephrasing the bolded sentence: It's theoretically possible that scum A need a neighbourizer, but it's scum B who have the neighbourizer, so scum A are advertising it so that they can have one too. This would be the case if Mehdi is scum B, and scum A know (somehow) a member of scum B, but scum B don't know any members of scum A.

Also, unless you know something I don't, scumA can only locate scumB the same way town can- using the cop ability. And I don't get the bolded sentence. What does that mean?

I don't know something you don't, I'm just trying to consider all the possibilities. For instance, they could have found the other scumteam the same way town could – via scumhunting. (That could lead to a hilarious neighbour QT, especially if they're wrong: "Hey, I'm scum.", "Sucker! I'm not".) The remaining possibilities are that they have some sort of role to help them link up that isn't linked to the auctions, or that they're confident that they have a reliable way to locate scum right now and will have located them by the time they use it. (In the last case, they probably control Watcher.)

The scum are scared enough of Cop that they advertised something else to prevent it falling into the Town's hands (in that case, why not pick Tailor or Investigation Immune, though?)

I think you self-explained why they didn't pick neighborizor out of fear of cop. That means they have a use for it.

Yeah, I'm pointing out the problems in my own theories. It'll be better for everyone to try to work this out together rather than just me trying to do it myself, because it'll be faster (more efficiency) and probably more accurate too. And that means putting all the information out there.

Actually, advertise carries over, so any new ability advertised has to beat my money plus the new money tonight.

I know, I was taking that into account. (I mentioned that we might be able to tell whether you'd advertised Cop as planned by what the advertised ability is at the start of tomorrow night.)

So my next question to you is: you've just gone over my reasoning here and made comments on what you agree with and what you don't agree with. So from your point of view, at this point Seanald should be close to confirmed scum (you think cop is in scum's hands, right?). Or am I missing something?

[Nero Cain]

hello. Who are we killing and why?

We had a plan of people passing money to limit scum using it. 6 passed to 6 I think, and 4 did not. 1713 is my latest take on last night's plan, posted here: 1127

ok...............that tells me nothing about why CAJ is the leading wagon. Why did you respond to my question but not answer it?

Sorry, you have to do some reading.

CFJ replaced/is carrying votes from Elmo.

Oh I'll get around to reading but thats not an excuse for what you did.

vote:PV

[callforjudgement]

hello. Who are we killing and why?

We had a plan of people passing money to limit scum using it. 6 passed to 6 I think, and 4 did not. 1713 is my latest take on last night's plan, posted here: 1127

ok...............that tells me nothing about why CAJ is the leading wagon.

A more useful answer: Elmo was being lurky and not really doing anything useful, so he got a lot of votes. He flaked out altogether, and I replaced in, and since then a lot of people took their votes off me, but a lot of people have them still there (out of inertia, or out of not having got to the thread yet, or out of thinking I'm scum).

I started the Shamrock wagon based on GreyICE's play (especially day 1); it's the same slot. I summarized my case in 1730.

More recently, a PeregrineV wagon quickly grew; I'd expressed suspicion of him but not voted for him. (So I've gone from being close to a lynch, to starting two wagons, since replacing in.) I'm a bit surprised at how quickly the wagon grew, really.

The other player who's had a lot of suspicion over the course of the game is Seanald. He's claimed to have won the cop ability night 0, which seems likely, and still has a shot left; and there are players who are highly suspicious of him, but also players who are strongly defending him. Perhaps ironically, he's the player who it'd be most useful to know the alignment of, because he's at the centre of a bunch of associative tells both ways, but we can't investigate him because it's him who's in control of the cop power.

[Nero Cain]

CAJ, what do you think of what PV just did? Do you find his responding to my question but not answering what I asked to be derpy/scummy?