Marketplace Mafia II - Game Over

[callforjudgement]

And some general background for what's been going on (which is what Peregrine was giving in his original answer to your question, rather than answering it, but it'll help to make sense of the game): town are following a breaking strategy which causes around half the players to intentionally do nothing, and where any deviations from the strategy will be visible within two days unless specific players die. Tomorrow, we'll know who's deviated night 1, unless scum kill the players who would learn of deviations. Last night, there were only two immediately visible deviations: someone bid for and won the nightkill who wasn't supposed to (this is really not surprising, all things considered), and someone who wasn't supposed to advertised Neighbouriser (which is what we've been talking about most recently, as there's less obvious motivation for them to do that). PeregrineV is under suspicion partly because it'd have been cheaper for him to incorrectly advertise Neighbouriser than it would be for anyone else to, as if Peregrine is town, whoever actually did the advertising would have had to pay a lot to compete with him. (You can flip the reasoning around, too: the other possibility is that scum's actions last night were intended to implicate Peregrine and Seanald, even though it cost them quite a bit of money to do so.)

PEDIT:

CAJ, what do you think of what PV just did? Do you find his responding to my question but not answering what I asked to be derpy/scummy?

I think it's more of a personality tell than an alignment tell; it sort-of betrays that PV seems more focused on the details of the breaking strategy than on actually catching scum, so I guess it's a bit of both and a weak scumtell, but it's sufficiently weak that I don't really want to try to draw any sort of conclusions from it.

[Mehdi2277]

Nero role claim too. You're predecessor already did so I just want to hear if it's the same claim. If yes then you are targeting me with the neighborizer power.

Sham is the person that should be lynched. Declan flaked immediately after replacing. Now sham joins and he lurks a lot. Yeah the slot is scum.

PV's also made dumb arguments towards me for the last page or two and is a decent lynch less so.

cfj unless all of this actually gets applied (and I understand some is and should argued, but other parts like covering every possibility) is an unnecessary wall thing. And a piece of knowledge you lack is I remember cop being top advertisement for part of the night. So it was advertised (no way to know how much or little though).

[callforjudgement]

cfj unless all of this actually gets applied (and I understand some is and should argued, but other parts like covering every possibility) is an unnecessary wall thing. And a piece of knowledge you lack is I remember cop being top advertisement for part of the night. So it was advertised (no way to know how much or little though).

I'm thinking out loud, more than anything else. The reminder here's useful, though; although I find being transparent about my motivations helps me be read, there's definitely a point where nobody cares about what you're saying any more. I'll summarize the whole thing: "Are Peregrine and Seanald actually in a 1v1 here? Or not?"

Thanks for that cop information, it is pretty useful (although not conclusive, obviously).

[Seanald]

yeah CFJ, your walls combined with your avatar make the whole screen just look gray....

[Seanald]

that was a kid, dont take it personal please lol

[Seanald]

itd be wise to allow others to put their two cents in now, its been like 3 people talking for the past 5 pages.

[Nero Cain]

Nero role claim too. You're predecessor already did so I just want to hear if it's the same claim. If yes then you are targeting me with the neighborizer power.

Did they get ran up and claim? I don't know if its wise to claim. What if they ended up trying to fakeclaim and do some derpass gambt like so many new players do?

[Seanald]

its ok...well give you time to search through the thread so you can copy the fake claim..

[Mehdi2277]

Nope. They claimed in reacted to the transfer plan. They weren't ever voted much.

[Mehdi2277]

EBWOP: reaction not reacted.

[callforjudgement]

Nero role claim too. You're predecessor already did so I just want to hear if it's the same claim. If yes then you are targeting me with the neighborizer power.

Did they get ran up and claim? I don't know if its wise to claim. What if they ended up trying to fakeclaim and do some derpass gambt like so many new players do?

Given the situation in which they claimed, they're 100% not town if the claim was fake.

[Nero Cain]

its ok...well give you time to search through the thread so you can copy the fake claim..

hi scum.

I can confirm that I am a Conspicuous Consumer.

[Nero Cain]

but yeah, there's likely scum in SPL and Sean and whomever else clled my/ELDions claim fake. Its outguessing the mod wich is incredibly stupid.

[Mehdi2277]

So are you confirming you plan to neighborize me (reason being found in 1237 although explained again in later posts)?

[Nero Cain]

The reasoning sounds solid so sure.

[PeregrineV]

So my next question to you is: you've just gone over my reasoning here and made comments on what you agree with and what you don't agree with. So from your point of view, at this point Seanald should be close to confirmed scum (you think cop is in scum's hands, right?). Or am I missing something?

This makes the presumption that scum-Seanald's team thought he would be the best candidate to get cop and use it for their purposes.

Fake results serve two purposes:
1. He calls target player town. If they are town, then they think cop=good.
2. If they are scum, then they know he's lying, and thus a member of the other scum team.

Now once he gives the results, we can either lynch him to "confirm" his results, or continue to play like normal. Scum would take into account who's getting it, and have to account for the possible lynch of their fake cop.

So, yes Seanald can be scum, but if he's town he'd still have to be lynched to make his cop ability useful.

[PeregrineV]

I think it's more of a personality tell than an alignment tell; it sort-of betrays that PV seems more focused on the details of the breaking strategy than on actually catching scum, so I guess it's a bit of both and a weak scumtell, but it's sufficiently weak that I don't really want to try to draw any sort of conclusions from it.

[callforjudgement]

So my next question to you is: you've just gone over my reasoning here and made comments on what you agree with and what you don't agree with. So from your point of view, at this point Seanald should be close to confirmed scum (you think cop is in scum's hands, right?). Or am I missing something?

This makes the presumption that scum-Seanald's team thought he would be the best candidate to get cop and use it for their purposes.

Err, what? Don't you agree that Seanald is a cop? Nobody's counterclaimed him, so the only way he isn't a cop is if he's scum and one of his scumbuddies is a cop and they swapped claims for some reason, so no matter what he's cop or scum.

My argument is that you seem to think (based on your response to my points) that the explanation for scum advertising Neighbourizer was that they had a cop result on the opposite scumteam and wanted to link up. In such a case, the cop would have to be scum, = Seanald is scum. Nothing to do with what he actually claims as cop results.

At what point does the reasoning break down?

[PeregrineV]

My argument is that you seem to think (based on your response to my points) that the explanation for scum advertising Neighbourizer was that they had a cop result on the opposite scumteam and wanted to link up. In such a case, the cop would have to be scum, = Seanald is scum. Nothing to do with what he actually claims as cop results.

From Game 1:
Subject: Mini 1198 - Marketplace Mafia - Game Over

Mod thoughts:

Under the Table Dealings:

So all of the antitown roles could communicate anonymously. The idea was that they could use this to maneuver around any breaking strategies the Town might come up with. Actually usage was a little different: bobsnox and Ghostlin both claimed who they were via UTTD messages D1. This proved particularly problematic for Ghostlin because after WeyounsLastClone was lynched, he was still outted to the other mafia. This meant that Lady Lambdadelta (who replaced bobsnox) and GreyICE both actually knew that Ghostlin was mafia D2, and GreyICE knew that Lady Lambdadelta was mafia after that. GreyICE and LLD do use the UTTD messages to collaborate D4/D5ish in terms of who does what, but it's a pretty one-sided relationship since LLD knows that she's outted.

1. Scum could have said "hey, lets get a QT" using a mechanic similar to this.
2. Scum could get cop in the future, use cop to find other scum, and then connect that way.
3. Scum could have cop now, use cop to find other scum, and then connect that way.
4. Scum could hold on to neighborizor until such point in the future where they find the other scumteam and use it then.

You keep on about Seanald being confirmed scum. I don't know, but he's probably going to be lynched purely because he bought the cop. Do you agree or disagree?

[callforjudgement]

1. Scum could have said "hey, lets get a QT" using a mechanic similar to this.

Unlikely, unless it's heavily scaled back. The point of the setup seems to be the split scumteam; the mod wouldn't have told us about that unless it was important. I guess one possibility is that scum get to send one message per day, or something like that.

2. Scum could get cop in the future, use cop to find other scum, and then connect that way.

If they want to do that, why the hell would they deadvertise it?

3. Scum could have cop now, use cop to find other scum, and then connect that way.

I suggested this as one of the possibilities myself. (It's the one with Seanald scum.)

4. Scum could hold on to neighborizor until such point in the future where they find the other scumteam and use it then.

I didn't think of this possibility. In such a case, it seems like a pretty weak play to me, in that they're going to be disjointed for ages and possibly forever and meanwhile the town will gain more information to punish neighbourization attempts, but it's viable and may actually happen.

You keep on about Seanald being confirmed scum. I don't know, but he's probably going to be lynched purely because he bought the cop. Do you agree or disagree?

[/quote]
I don't think he's confirmed scum. There were several other possibilities, but you rejected most of them (which is reasonable because many of them involved you being scum). So it's not about whether he's confirmed scum to me (he isn't, or there'd be no point in me trying to establish his alignment); it's about whether he's confirmed scum to you, who has more information than I do because you know whether you followed the plan last night.

In reply to the question, I think he's likely to be lynched, but not because he bought the cop. I think he would have been lynched much earlier if he hadn't, but town are typically (and correctly IMO) reluctant to lynch a claimed cop. There was a large wagon on him day 1, but he managed to avoid the vig, and later to avoid the lynch. Then people haven't really voted for him since, and are avoiding the problem today. I can't read him directly, so I'm trying to establish his alignment via relational tells and night actions.

[Mehdi2277]

So what do we have left before ending the day? Powers for tonight are fairly dealt with except a new advertiser (not sure if needed since money passes over).

Player	Buying	Receiving Money From
Greygnarl	Night-kill	N/A
Tammy	Neighborizer	Phil
Slumber	Bulletproof	Seanald
Stephan	Vote Freezer	Shamrock
Mehdi	Hitman	Pitty
Sala	Accountant	PV
Voided	Vote Nullifier	Peregrine

Sham should be lynched (PV scum is an argument for later, but sham is just a worse slot). Power use wise only ones that have been said are me targetting tammy while nero targets me. The rest of the power uses can just be claimed tomorrow.

[callforjudgement]

What should I be doing overnight, in this plan?

For advertising, I think the way it works is that there's not much point in advertising cop if it's already winning (except to shore it up a bit), so it'd make the most sense to advertise watcher as the other really pro-town role.

Also, Salamence wanted bulletproof, IIRC. Do you have a specific reason for denying him that, given that he's buying something anyway?

[Seanald]

In reply to the question, I think he's likely to be lynched, but not because he bought the cop. I think he would have been lynched much earlier if he hadn't, but town are typically (and correctly IMO) reluctant to lynch a claimed cop. There was a large wagon on him day 1, but he managed to avoid the vig, and later to avoid the lynch. Then people haven't really voted for him since, and are avoiding the problem today. I can't read him directly, so I'm trying to establish his alignment via relational tells and night actions.

the target on my back is constantly being perpetuated and it can't all be coming from town, just think about that for a second.

[Mehdi2277]

Swap yourself with sham.

He wanted bp because of all that use of talking to dead people. That plan was fairly completely attacked.

[callforjudgement]

I mean, advertising Watcher but not to the extent of Cop; $1 less than PV spent yesterday, preferably. That way we can compete better with the scumteam for a pro-town advertisement if necessary, and I can't see any downside apart from tying up someone's money in a not immediately confirmable way.