Mini 1390: Game Over

[_Sherlock_]

Early submit. :/

[nhammen]

I can delete the early submit if you would like me to. Only once you post the full version though.

Vote Count 2.2

Kinetic (2): _Sherlock_, toxictaipan
Abaddon (1): TheTrollie
kwll (1): Slandaar

Not Voting (6): Abaddon, Idiotking, Deltabacon, kwll, Kinetic, JacobSavage

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.
Deadline is in

(expired on 2012-12-08 15:00:00)

[_Sherlock_]

It's fine. I'm adding format-style stuff to the part I already posted; it's technically an edited version.

[_Sherlock_]

Alright. Reads, in the order from most to least convenient for me to type up:

_Sherlock_:

Duh.

TOWN

Trollie:

Either Town or SK. I see no point in speculating on this further.

NOT MAFIA (:P)

Idiotking:

I had almost no read on him until Post #319. I got a minor town read from the way he bluntly showed an opposite view from me as far as Trollie's alignment. This view remains consistent throughout Day 1, as he stay's on Trollie's ass to the end. The sense I got from his Post #321 made me feel that he's actually going through his reads with some serious effort. This makes me feel that he's either highly detailed scum putting effort into faking each of his reads in detail, or he's town. My only samples are one recently finished game and games from years ago, but his max posting quality seems to be higher as town, similar to his posting here. Along the same line, there's Post #331. As he claimed that his post took two days to assemble, it's less likely that he took two days faking a huge post when he hasn't had a history of doing that before as scum. It's more likely that he's doing things the same way he was doing them in his recently-finished game and making a legitimate read list. Someone mentioned when he made the post that he has way too many scum reads in his post to be scum, and I tend to agree with that. Add to that that he listed no one I see as potential scum as a town read, which either means he's not supporting his partners or he's town (or I'm wrong... nah). I disagreed with most of his reads, but he's been consistent with them since the reads post and seems to genuinely believe every point he makes. The fact that he's willing to put a huge post out there in the first place is also a slight towntell, as from a scum PoV, it creates connections between him and every other player. Him showing low confidence in some reads, such as at the end of his read on Abaddon, shows that he's posting all reads that come to his mind instead of finding what's good and making it fit into a read. In my experience, scum are less likely to gather reads in this way because they already know what they want their reads to be, while town are still trying to find theirs. His read on Delta seems to be mostly based on the fact that he attacked Trollie constantly, something terribly wrong, but not something I see Mafia basing a town read on, considering that he wanted Trollie-not-mafia dead. He's too confident about his read on Trollie to be faking it and expect a good reaction to it later, knowing he's not mafia. I also am a fan of the fact that he types up pretty big walls on some players just to end up giving them a null read. It again shows thought. That about wraps up why I got a huge town read on Idiot right after his reads post. The cherry on top of Idiot-town is his Neighbor claim. A two-man neighborhood is pretty likely to have two town, and Jacob's comment about forgetting to check the QT means that if there's scum in the Neighborhood, it's most likely Jacob, not Idiot. His confusion around his read on me is a town tell because, like I've said before, people are less likely to take things step-by-step like that as scum than as town.

TOWN

---

This is all I can get done tonight, sorry. I'll try to get more finished tomorrow and upcoming days. I'll just say now that I'm MUCH more confident in reads that I list as "

TOWN

" than any other reads, specifically, my scum reads.

[Idiotking]

Prod dodge. Will try to post something meaningful sometime tomorrow (today?).

[Slandaar]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Abaddon

I don't have much to say; lynch him or kwll today toxic/delta for the 3rd scum; probably toxic if I had to guess re Delta his; 'waiting for hammer' instead of just hammering is pretty bad; if you are waiting just hammer, seems like scum not wanting responsibility for the lynch.

[_Sherlock_]

VOTE: Abaddon

I'm actually fine with that compromise wagon until I finish my analysis. According to my current reads, he's scum too.

[Deltabacon]

Quick update: My UCAS should be good for Monday, so my V/LA should be solved by tommorow.

@Slandaar, there's a difference between waiting for hammer, and hoping that Kinetic would actually turn up with a post in the hours prior to deadline, after which I would indeed have hammered. At that point (And arguably still now), we know NOTHING about him other than the actions from his replacee.

[toxictaipan]

Prod dodge. I'll probably get a chance to catch up and post tomorrow.

[nhammen]

Kinetic is no longer under V/LA and Abbadon is due for a prod. Prodding both of them. Please note that this is Abaddon's fourth prod. I have given more opportunities than I should have. If I have to prod him one more time, I will just force-replace him rather than prodding.

[Kinetic]

Apologies you had to prod me. I'm working on a post now and will post before the end of the day.

[kwll]

offtopic/ Hope everyone had a great holiday /offtopic

I am against mass claiming on Day 2. This will only allow scum better targets for their NK.

Sland, what case are you trying to make?

as for voting abaddon, I wish to hear what he has to say or if he is getting replaced.

Delta why did you wait to hammer when it was clear that town wished to do it?

[TheTrollie]

checked up on:

Delta - I have no idea why i was convinced delta is town. He could very easily be scum

Idiot – still think town

Slandaar – still on fence, like i said, I can see slandaar as scum, but i'd prefer it if he were town lol

[Kinetic]

BLEH. I wanted to get through this game today, but I've already spent about 4 hours on the read and I'm only on about page 15. I'll give you guys something right now, but it won't be my big I'm caught up post.

Right now the reads I have are such:

Town, or leaning town: IK, Delta, Sable/Kwill

For Delta: Starting with #203, as well as a few other things, I've noticed hints that tell me that Delta is likely town. Before #203 I had a slight scum/neutral read on him, but since then I've approved of his posts (up to page 15).

IK: Posts #180, #222 gave me a town read. I have some issues though with his large post (#331), as many of his reads are just... bad. He makes 7 solid "scum" reads, but so far 3 of those (Tommy, Absta/Parama, CD) have been confirmed town. Additionally, his other three scum reads (this slot, Slan, Trollie) don't feel like solid scum reads to me. The only scum read he has that I agree with is Abaddon. That is distressing, and I'm curious what the next couple pages reveal about more of his play.

Sable/Kwill: This read is almost solely based on Sable's early game play. #109 was a great post. This read is most likely to change though as I haven't seen many good posts yet from this slot and it is my weakest town read right now.

Neutral: Trollie, Slandaar (leaning town), Sherlock, Jacob

Trollie: I haven't quite caught up, but I think I remember him claiming vig. This might change my read eventually. At this point, IK's #222 is a good staple on Trollie's play at this point. As well, I really dislike #232 from Trollie. Seems to be an argument that he just... doesn't need to make. Maybe an IIOA tell. Delta's #265 is on point with how I feel about Trollie. However, despite IK and Delta's attacks on him, I'm hesitant to put a scum tag on him yet. His arguments and defense makes enough sense that I'm not sold on him being scum yet.

Slandaar: Shitposting #146, 147, 149, and #198. Seemed to be actively lurking. Comes back with a vengeance in #270 (my notes literally state "HOLY SHIT, STOP THE PRESSES, SLANDAAR MADE A NON-SHIT POST"). Makes another good posting at #290. Probably most "townie" person sitting on my neutral row right now.

Jacob: I simply do not have a lot of notes on him. His only post that is in my notes is he made a list in #202. His only other post that I made a comment on was #304, and that it was a bad idea.

Sherlock/Jason: This slot distresses me the most though. #211 echos some of what I feel about Toxic #67, but comes to the opposite conclusion. Specifically: "I really don't like toxic's Post #67. He's completely avoiding the topic with Abaddon. He also bothered to comment on many other things before that. However, if he actually does end up commenting on it and has a decent reason to stall, he's probably town." #262 he makes a reads post, and so far his posts have been well-written and defended, but his reads are nearly exactly opposite mine at this point. Specifically:

Kinetic's Reads as of #262
Confirmed: Tommy, Parama/absta, CD, Radelle/Kinetic
Town: Delta, Sable/kwill, IK
Neutral: Trollie (leaning scum), Slandaar, Sherlock, Jacob
Scum: Toxic, Abaddon

Comparably, Sherlock has toxic/Jacob as strong town (S/N), Tom/Troll town (CT/N), Somewhat town Ab/Sable (S/T), while scum reads on this slot, CD (CT/CT), and neutral to scum on Absta, Delta, IK, and Slan (CT/T/T/N). That is nearly perfect variance. We agree mostly on Slandaar and Sable-kwill, but everything else is far off.

Since then, my read on Slandaar has moved toward leaning town, but based on #318, Sherlock's reads haven't changed. He does not comment on Slandaar though.

Overall, I like Sherlock's posts, but I'm disagreeing with his conclusions.

Scum reads: Toxic and Abaddon

These reads are actually strongly tied together. At first, I have issues with Toxic's #53 and #67. Both seem very very scummy. Eventually Toxic #85 is somewhat redeeming. At this point, Abaddon even gets town points for #86 and 88 in my book for calling Toxic on his shitty logic.

Moving forward, Abaddon's #106 bugs me for calling something a strawman argument that wasn't technically a strawman, and then claiming that opinions are not something that could be defended against. In point in fact, Radelle's issue here was very much a meta argument, not an in game one, but nonetheless Abaddon fight he should not defend against it at all.

Abaddon #118 then really rubs me the wrong way for its strong defense on Toxic. This follows with Toxic #134 where Toxic appears to chainsaw into Radelle's attack into Abaddon's play. Radelle's #135/Toxic #139 also shows a rather weird argument. Specifically from my notes:

#135/139 -(This Slot)/Toxic - Toxic asks for evidence, but is pushing for only a certain type of evidence. He's taking the initial vote, which being an early vote really doesn't have to have too much more than a gut reaction, and trying to twist it into a later vote, which certainly would require more evidence. Except, Radelle has provided some evidence to now support her initial gut, but because it isn't exactly as toxic wants it, Toxic ignores it. This reeks of a double chainsaw, scum-buddies attacking each other's wagons... The problem with that theory being both players are attacking Radelle. I don't think that's a double chainsaw technically. Although Radelle's play isn't the best, I'm finding Toxic/Abaddon's attacks to be falling flat.

Toxic's #145 is a good post overall, but reinforces some of the buddying tells between him and Abaddon. Toxic's #154 shows a complete change of tone that he has used for the whole game when addressing Tommy. My own belief was that Tommy's case via #115 on Parama was more a note of Parama's bad play, rather than Parama's scummyness, but Toxic appears to be one of the few players giving Tommy's case a possible chance at success.

I don't like Toxic's #191 proficiency argument. I didn't like his reaction test when I first saw it, but his insistence that, obviously, only people who can read them accurately can understand his reaction test and the reactions he generated with them. Bugs me that even this far into the game he keeps repeating that point. IK's attack on this was fairly intuitive (that the reactions don't measure scumminess), but Toxic's response is pretty much "Well I can find scumminess in them".

Toxic's #277 insistence on this "conflict" is annoying, repetitive, and ultimately useless. Even if we take his word that there is a conflict, it doesn't indicate scumminess.

So that's what I have for now, hopefully that helps everyone who was waiting for something form me. I will try to find some more time later to pick up the rest of the read-through.

[Kinetic]

At the moment I'm still working on my wallpost (it wound up being much bigger than I thought), but I'm going to pop in and answer that real quick.

Obviously I don't agree with your logic, because it assumes that your reads are accurate. I don't think I'm scum, and I think Deltabacon is town. While I do see CD as scum (will explain in my wallpost) and I see Abaddon as leaning scum (ditto), I still think Trollie is scum. Your argument only holds up if Trollie is town, and I frankly cannot understand why you think Trollie's play would be town thusfar. I should also state here that I haven't gotten to my read on Radelle yet, so I don't know if I agree or disagree with you that Radelle is scum, but for now I think Radelle would actually be the counterwagon to Trollie scum.

Did that make sense? I'm a little addled right now.

Sorry Double Post. Mod please fix that if you can <3.

[Kinetic]

And I have no idea where that quote came from...

[_Sherlock_]

Wow. I kinda skimmed through that for now, but I'm pretty interested in your read on me and how it parallels to how I read Idiot. He has almost completely opposite views from me, but I feel that the posts themselves are great.

You also just made your slot look ten times better. I'll have to look into your meta to see if your scum play (or your town play, for that matter) can look like this.

[nhammen]

Sorry Double Post. Mod please fix that if you can <3.

Fixed

[Kinetic]

Wow. I kinda skimmed through that for now, but I'm pretty interested in your read on me and how it parallels to how I read Idiot. He has almost completely opposite views from me, but I feel that the posts themselves are great.

You also just made your slot look ten times better. I'll have to look into your meta to see if your scum play (or your town play, for that matter) can look like this.

lol, good luck finding it. I've played one game to completion in the last year (MOS's Name of the Wind Mafia) of which I didn't do very well and was really shaking off the rust. I'm in a game now but it just started and I doubt there is anything to glean from that, also, ongoing game. Beyond that, you'll have to search back a couple years to find some games of mine, and most of them are Large Themes.

[_Sherlock_]

You're right. I can't even find anything through the "View their topics" thing because of your List Mod stuff. -_-

Can you list what you would consider a couple of your best scum games, as well as a couple of your best town games? It doesn't matter to me when they're from.

[Kinetic]

Nope. Even if I remembered, its been so long that I doubt any of it would be any use. All the meta is outdated. I'd be searching just the same as you would be, and I frankly don't have the time nor inclination to do so, especially when I put so little faith in meta reads as it stands.

[Slandaar]

Sland, what case are you trying to make?

My case is basically; When I read some of your posts I feel like I am at the theater.

[JacobSavage]

Sland, what case are you trying to make?

My case is basically; When I read some of your posts I feel like I am at the theater.

I'm going to go ahead and call Slandar town. No scum would even risk being that audacious (although I'd admit you raise a good point)

[_Sherlock_]

Nope. Slandaar's a pretty audacious guy.

[nhammen]

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