Mini 1390: Game Over

[Konowa]

unvote;

React to all of this when I get home.

[Idiotking]

But then scum would likely have roleblocked Thor to prevent him from protecting anyone and shot someone else. I still have trouble believing the whole roleblocker thing, or at least if there is one it's not mafia.

[TheTrollie]

But then scum would likely have roleblocked Thor to prevent him from protecting anyone and shot someone else. I still have trouble believing the whole roleblocker thing, or at least if there is one it's not mafia.

Exactly.

which is why we had our little quibble last night. (which btw pretty much confirms Idiot is town)

[Konowa]

Bodyguard is passive, meaning it can't be roleblocked. I think.

[Idiotking]

So yeah, what I'm beginning to think is that BOTH Trollie and scum targetted Sherlock, making him a very popular individual. Again, we'd be well on our way to confirming this if Slandaar died, because Sherlockscum may have been afraid of Thor for whatever reason and went ahead to kill him anyway.

Vote Slandaar

If there's a town roleblocker, for pete's sake, don't block Trollie tonight.

Bodyguard isn't passive. He chooses who to block, which is active.

[kwll]

I think he is confusing bodyguard which is active with bulletproof which is passive

[_Sherlock_]

I don't believe Trollie. He said he had me as a town read for certain posts.

[TheTrollie]

believe it baby...and then why dont u explain why u didnt die...

I had a very hard time deciding whether to out u as a suspect yesterday. I thought if i didnt I risked being NKed and letting u walk. thats why i started outing u as possible scum. Then I realized that I could instead take back the scum-read, and hopefully not get NKed, but that even If i did if i shot you last night then i didnt have to worry about them failing to lynch you. Thor was an obvious lynch target for today so I didn't have to worry about him. you were my one scum read that no-one was gonna lynch.

[TheTrollie]

the reason i think there might be a town RB, is because I can understand an RB blocking me last night if they thought I was going to shoot town (i.e. Sherlock said that he wasnt gonna let me shoot kwll, but sherlocks def not the RB now lol).

I understand an RB not claiming in order to keep scum off them, but at this point that is silly.

[toxictaipan]

And the meta thing, regardless of what is said, does hold significant weight.

No, it doesn't. It's like trying to meta someone who has been in 100 games, while only comparing the game in question with a single completed game. And this is added to the fact that kwll doesn't even have 99 other game's worth of experience for his meta to be solidified. You need multiple examples to draw this kind of conclusion.

When you're trying to prove something by meta, you're saying that the person in question consistently behaves a certain way under certain conditions. You can't say kwll behaves this way consistently as town, because you only have

one

example to analyze. You can't draw conclusions of consistent play from one game. It's literally impossible.


@TheTrollie: I'm so confused right now... Do you currently have a scum read on _Sherlock_?

[TheTrollie]

ah, toxic u just reminded me...

I should explain why i shot sherlock more.

I thought Thor was conf-scum after that flip. I figured there was no point in shooting him though, cause even if i died he wasn't living through the end of the day, so instead I should use my shot on someone i think is scum but who will slip right through to endgame if i didn't shoot. Most ppl had a townread on sherlock.

I dont remember if i ever posted this or wrote it out anywhere (just checked, no notes), but I had done wagon analysis ba...AHA...found it!

This is a post i prepared yesterday but saved it since it basically explained what i was going to use to figure out scum, and obviously didnt want scum to know that:

Spoiler: notes

Let me say something else. I would not totally rule out the possibility that these wagons are town v. town or scum v. scum

town v. town explains the stalemate.

If Kinetic is scum, I don't believe everyone on the wagon is scum (duh). I also dont believe that scum on thor's wagon wouldnt just bite the bullet and suggest switching over to kinetic for the town-cred. There is enough that has gone on in the past few pages to warrant people switching sides, yet no one has. The same thing is true for thor. no one bit when I made my points. no one even probed me to explain more. The only thing that happened was thor argued against it.

scum v. scum actually does not make sense for the same reason. whichever scum is on the wagon with 4 townies would jump at the opportunity to gain town cred by voting scum.

Ok, so scum v. scum = no sense

town v. town makes a ton of sense to me.

Kinetic scum v. Thor town
again, not all scum are going to be on kinetic's wagon if this is the case, that makes no sense. meaning there would be at least 4 if not all 5 voters town. That gives the one scum (possibly two) on the thor wagon the opportunity to switch sides. which no one has.

thor scum v. kinetic town
same diffference

So when Sherlock was on thor, then hopped onto kinetic, then teased that he might switch back to thor until thor claimed and then he just was like "ok yeah not voting thor"

so thats why I shot sherlock.

[JacobSavage]

If it emerges that Sherlock is telling the truth,

You just shot the Sheriff...

[kwll]

so if he shot sherlock...then thor protected sherlock?

[kwll]

I dont understand why Trollie said he was to shoot sherlock if we didnt slow down...but now said he shot sherlock last night

[JacobSavage]

Because he wanted to slow the game down.

Also my opion on Sherlock being confirmed town is if Slandaar flips miller. anything else is open to Wifom and scum information.

[Idiotking]

You have to deal with probabilities sometimes. Yes, Slandaarscum flipping does leave the possibility open that Sherlock was bussing, but it's more probable that Sherlock is town in that case. This can be greatly reinforced by an examination of their interactions together. It's not like we'd be completely in the dark anymore.

[Idiotking]

Also Sherlock, if you're telling the truth, I'd really love to have info on Jacob tomorrow. Now that I think about it, having scum in a neighborhood when there are already a fair number of town PR's may be more probable than I thought.

[TheTrollie]

did i miss something?

If sherlock didn't die, and there are no roleblockers, why do we think hes telling the truth?

[Idiotking]

We don't necessarily. I'm going to wait to see Slandaar's flip before I trust him.

As for the whole night action stuff, if you actually shot Sherlock, and there are no roleblockers, then the only possible answer is that Thor protected Sherlock. That means that either both you and scum targeted Sherlock, or scum targeted Thor, which we've established would have been stupid. Sherlockscum may have killed Thor, but since the Slandaar flip is the best way of determining Sherlock's alignment, we should lynch Slandaar.

I honestly don't understand why you don't get that.

[_Sherlock_]

If you're telling the truth, Thor probably protected me.

How does you shooting me and me surviving make me more likely scum? If you shot me, I actually think it makes me more likely town, as the only options are that mafia shot me too or mafia shot Thor. Take your pick of which of those is more likely.

[Idiotking]

Not the only options, but the most likely, as we've already established, a mafia roleblocker would have been better off blocking Thor.

[TheTrollie]

IDIOTKING

i do not get you. i really dont.

STOP SAYING "oh we will figure that out once slandaar is gone.

(1) once slandaar is gone we dont get to see him post. that means we cant see how he interacts with other ppl during this intense 1 v. 1 with sherlock
(2) if slandaar is town, and i CANNOT KILL SHERLOCK, as i was unable to kill him last night, the GAME IS OVER

why dont u see that?!?!


p-edit: good, good job avoiding the other posibility that you are scum bp. I don't think any other explanation makes sense. Scum did not shoot u, thor definitely did not protect u over a confirmed PR. Scum did not shoot thor...MEANING. Scum shot someone (again probably me id say) and thor protected me. I shot you but you didnt die....huh? owhat?

[JacobSavage]

I think its a case of that it might be the best play now but is it the best play in the future sort of thing.
Also Sherlock mods signature post - I'm terrible in LYLO.

[TheTrollie]

IT IS NOT THE BEST PLAY FOR THE FUTURE...WHAT DONT YOU PEOPLE GET. WE NEED TO RESOLVE THIS, NOT HOPE THAT THINGS WORK OUT

[TheTrollie]

I don't believe Trollie. He said he had me as a town read for certain posts.

If you're telling the truth,

Thor probably protected me.

How does you shooting me and me surviving make me more likely scum? If you shot me, I actually think it makes me more likely town, as the only options are that mafia shot me too or mafia shot Thor. Take your pick of which of those is more likely.

+scum points for considering I'm lying.

Unless you think I'm scum thats unproductive, ur just deflecting.

Wanna hear my theory? Either there is a RB or...

Sherlock is a godfather, he comes in claiming cop. He says he wants to wait to see if anyone counterclaims. If someone counters, he can say, ok ok fine I was just reaction testing. We dont believe him. He says, "have counterclaimer investigate me tonight to prove im tellin truth" then tomorrow when cop reports inno sherlock is safe. OR no-one counterclaims, and he gets to say YADAYADA I'm a big boy cop.