Open 466: Nomination Mafia - Town Wins!

[orcinus_theoriginal]

The question that has not been asked nearly enough is this:

What was Rainbow doing on the Day 2 block?

[Thor665]

1. Eh, I've never bought quickhammering as scumtell, but at least see the point. However, if you think this it begs the question why no one commented on her. I think you have an overblown opinion of its relative scumminess.

2. Does this mean everyone who got pressure is town and I'm confirmed? I understand he base logic, but what if scum put up all town and just chose to attack one over another?

3. That's a solid scum plan and I can agree with the reasoning there, and it would work with a Thor lynch also.

Good.

Almost assuredly, as I recall a couple of the newbs were even mewling that being put on it Day 2 would 'prove' they were town, so I'd have done it in a heartbeat.

Okay, so now we have some reason to think Rainbow is scummy (easy) and reason to rule out at least one partnership (easy) but why do you rule out all other partnerships save those that involve her? Is it just that you're convinced scum would put one of themselves on the block without question? I can see that, except that you suspect me - what if I'm the scum and Rainbow is just innocently derpy? Either you need to be hard clearing me somehow, or this push makes little sense...thoughts?

[Thor665]

What was Rainbow doing on the Day 2 block?

Being a mislynch or being wifom scum - that's what everyone was doing on it.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Yet nobody pushed for Rainbow on Day 2 aside from me...I think.

I am convinced that scum would not leave both of their own off the block.

For that reason, I find Rainbow's insistence that 'everyone on the block was town' as a classic instance of "being on the block proves that I'm town" and gains some cred from Toroid's lynch, even though she drove it.

Right now, here are the pairings I feel are possible.
Thor+Chk
Thor+Top: Defense by the former of the latter on D1 through D2 supports this. Thor's bussing meta does not.
Thor+Rainbow: This has fucked with my head for a very long time. This is possible.
Rainbow+Chk

Rainbow is not the most common name in those pairings. However, to assume that I judge each pairing with equality is a mistaken assumption. I see Rainbow+Chk as the strongest, more so than Thor+Top and Thor+Chk. The rainbow/Chk interaction seems slightly off in that they both slapped down votes in Lylo without much hesitation. Furthermore, it makes perfect sense for scum to do this. Either Rainbow wins, and Chk is bussed, giving Rainbow all the town cred she needs, or Chk wins and townie Thor is killed off in Lylo. Bussing at this time is the ideal play for scum.

Rainbow's mindless defense of Thor is also bad.

[Thor665]

Why does my bussing meta affect Thor/Top and not Thor/Rainbow?

[Rainbowdash]

I am convinced that scum would not leave both of their own off the block.

This is 100% what I would have wanted if I was scum. Its a bad move to pass this up in almost all scenarios because all attention is going to be centered in the group going up and residual attention would spill over to the next day, like is what actually happened here. Scum played it right and given that T12 is MIA is probably the only reason that the game isnt over already.

Rainbow's mindless defense of Thor is also bad.

Bull. The case on him is baseless and if he is scum we got lucky. I will always defend when the case is bad or I have a scumread. I follow hardcore on the whole loyalty thing, and staying loyal to your town reads is one of the biggest obsticals you can throw at scum.

Look. Unvote for a little. If you really think im scum its not like you are jeopardizing things and given that T12 is simply gone for now at chk was obviously fishing for something with that post at the start of the day the chance of it being T12 and chk is off the charts. If it really shakes down to Thor/Me vs chk/T12 like its looking like it will if you are town, you can make a more informed decision since it MUST be one of the other at that point and your pairings are streamlined, plus we can make better looking cases.

Basically your vote is saying that it more or less HAS to be me and Thor, I wouldnt have tried to get you off Thor if I was scum with chk. I just dont post for a bit, or have chk actually throw out his vote and hammer. I NEVER would go for chk when T12 would have given us the game if we couldnt hammer coordinate.

If you are town, it 100% has to be me and Thor or chk and T12. Its been a stupid week at work with overtime and then having to go over SBFCA specifications for the stupid $120M project today which was eight hours of dry text reading. I can get to it this weekend if you actually leave it as apossibility, but if you are town and voting me to try and lock things down or something, you at least need to realize the possibilites that you actually ahering to. Its not four different pairings, its two with no duplicates. If you are scum cool keep it up, but really I think that would mean something derpy like T12 is town or something in which case we are basically screwed either way.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Every time Rainbow posts I want to smash my head in for being stupid.

UNVOTE: Rainbowdash

Rainbow: Thing about your interaction with thor is that you weren't just negating the case on Thor, you were pushing Thor as a town-read. You're basically saying that Thor is town because there are stupid people in the village trying to scumhunt. That doesn't follow. Who is your strongest town read right now: Me or Thor?

I'll be in palau for the next 24 hours so I look forward to seeing something from you in that time.

@Thor: I don't take that much stock into meta. I find your interaction with Rainbow suspicious because you don't find Rainbow's defense of you suspicious and I find it suspicious and this is a bad sentence because I'm off on a plane soon but yeah.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

I am town. My votes are on Rainbow/Thor today fo' sho'.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

No. No. No.

Rainbow has been pushing a chk/T12 narrative this entire game and I will not buy it.

VOTE: Rainbowdash and here it stays.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow: Thing about your interaction with thor is that you weren't just negating the case on Thor, you were pushing Thor as a town-read. You're basically saying that Thor is town because there are stupid people in the village trying to scumhunt. That doesn't follow. Who is your strongest town read right now: Me or Thor?

Bad case tends to equate the recipiant of it being town, when there has been constant pressure on Thor from scumreads and I have to FORCE myself to take some leaps of faith to put together a case on him... yes I think he is town. Because I am town the only way I can see the game not having ended is him being town, maybe scum with T12 as an option since thats not technically ruled out, but even though its probably not what you want to hear, he is my strongest town read simply because it isnt over.

[Fujiko]

Klick replaces Top12Gun, effective immediately.

Vote Count 3.4

chkflip: 1 (Rainbowdash)
Rainbowdash: 1 (orcinus_theoriginal)

Not voting: 3 (Thor665, Klick, chkflip)

3 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2012-12-21 14:00:00)

[Klick]

I need my Role PM first.

[Rainbowdash]

I need my Role PM first.

Well you are either scum with chk and have the easiest win ever or are town and get to be tiebreaker.

[Fujiko]

I need my Role PM first.

It is possible that I wrote the message and somehow managed to throw it out instead of sending it. Ooops.

Check now.

[Klick]

Cool, got it.

I kinda half-skimmed this earlier today, but didn't get much out of it because I didn't expect to be in the game. Thor's assuming my slot is scum, though, so he's probably scum.

I'll read more in a sec.

[Klick]

So, plugging in me as town in what's happened in Day 3:

- Thor/Orc had the opportunity to hammer chk, but didn't. Thus, one of Rainbow/chk is scum.
- Rainbow/Orc didn't seem to make much of an effort to get a hammer on chk's Thor vote. Rainbow voted chk during that time, and Rainbow and Orc had some pretty close posts. I'm going to assume that Rainbow/Orc aren't a team, and thus, one of Thor/chk is scum.
- Thor/chk currently have the opportunity to hammer Rainbow. Unless Orc unvotes, we're about to find out if they're a team.

That leaves me with Thor/chk, Thor/Rainbow, chk/Rainbow, or chk/Orc. I'm not willing to lynch Orc today, as he can only be scum with chk. If Thor/chk becomes cleared, I won't want to lynch Thor, either.

I personally think Orc is town anyway, so this was kinda a waste of time.

[Klick]

@Both Thor and Rainbowdash:

If I'm town, and you're town, chk has to be scum. Who out of orc, each other, and myself is his most likely partner?

@orc:

What is the likelihood of a Rainbow/chk team in your opinion?

I already feel pretty confident about who is scum, but I'm going to hold it until I get more information.

[Rainbowdash]

@Both Thor and Rainbowdash:

If I'm town, and you're town, chk has to be scum. Who out of orc, each other, and myself is his most likely partner?

Given that the game isnt ending, its probably OT which goes against my other reads but its the only think that actually makes sense here. It where it gets to the point that nothing makes sense, but Thor is essentially forced to be town which means that if this game doesnt end really soon T12 was town and OT was scum and that means that chk really screwed this up, so im not really sure what is happening. I feel like we are going to lose because scum did something so stupid they couldnt possibly be scum or something like that.

All I know is that today is essentially the last day of the game since who scum with OT will reveal itself if the game is still going and a scum lynch forces a win in that case.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Yeah, 292 confirmed it. I'm not scum, so can we lynch rainbowdash already?

[Klick]

@orc:

What is the likelihood of a Rainbow/chk team in your opinion?

[orcinus_theoriginal]

I see Rainbow+Chk as the strongest, more so than Thor+Top and Thor+Chk. The rainbow/Chk interaction seems slightly off in that they both slapped down votes in Lylo without much hesitation. Furthermore, it makes perfect sense for scum to do this. Either Rainbow wins, and Chk is bussed, giving Rainbow all the town cred she needs, or Chk wins and townie Thor is killed off in Lylo. Bussing at this time is the ideal play for scum.

[Klick]

Ah.

What about Rainbow/Thor?

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Second to Rainbow/Chk. Which is why I'm voting Rainbow. You should too.

Rainbow, if you were town, I'll shoot you. :3

[Klick]

I'll wait for Thor before I reveal my suspicions.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

@Both Thor and Rainbowdash:

If I'm town, and you're town, chk has to be scum. Who out of orc, each other, and myself is his most likely partner?

Also, this is a flawed question. You are still a viable scum candidate with Thor. Although granted, if that's the case, we lost this game because I flatly refuse to vote for anyone aside from Rainbow, and we have 3 town vs 2 scum and my vote is set.

I was cheated D2, I will not be cheated again

!