Mini 1401 - Game over!

[d3x]

I think noob-scum Conman stayed far far away from his buddies actually. Like...well...you for instance.

You mean like this...

Meph: %80 Scum

...or this...

SiN: Town

...or this...

I still think he is scummy just not as scummy as other players (Nobody Special, qwints, havingfitz, no activity meph)

I find it odd that you won't even allow for the possibility that he was voting for the competing Wagon to save his own ass, no matter who it was on. I think regardless of alignment {but especially in the case of Scum}, Newbs are more interested in surviving than playing well. To boot, he was a 1xBulletproof Goon. That clearly means that there is a high probability that there are antiScum Night Kills in this game. With the amount of shit he was piling on himself D1, he'd be a clear target for N1 if he lived.

If you are town d3x, why aren't you looking at relationships to known scum?

As a matter of fact, I am reinforcing reads based off of the flip, just as you are. It's not what Conman said about me/meph that has you looking at me, it's what I/meph said about him. The only difference between what we're doing is point of view.

TBC...

[Kthxbye]

Damn you d3x....
UNVOTE: ....for now....

Any other scum reads though?

[TheConman17]

-Ghostly Bump-

[d3x]

@Kthx, If you want to bring up my meta, how about bringing up my Scum meta? Have you ever known me to hardline defend a ScumBuddy like this? I pretty much always bus the hell out of them whether they are under fire or not. It sounds so much more convincing that way. If I'm not bussing them, I'm usually ignoring them. Why would I take such a hardline stance against someone who tied for the highest Wagon when I replace in and is the obv Lynch of the Day? Were we ScumBuddies, why would I have not conveniently joined in the Wagon and pushed that thing to Lynch? It was the clear choice for the D1 Lynch, Slandaar even said he was going to rejoin the Wagon. With my Vote, that'd be L-1 time and a slight breeze would've put him over.

Do you have a scum read for anyone else besides Slandaar?

I'd rather hold that close to the vest at this point. I think we need more people posting/contributing before I come out with my thoughts.

[Kthxbye]

Fuck me sideways...ok, d3x isn't scum....probably. unless he's going opposite his scum meta, what he's saying is true. Shit. Now that huntress is dead town, my scum reads need new scum.

That said, I still don't see slandaar as scum either...sigh, more reading for me then...

[Kthxbye]

D3x: just know that if you are playing the fact that I know you very well against me to win this game for scum, we will no longer be friends.

[d3x]

@Kthx - I went back to reread the posts thus far today and wanted to ask you about this...

I won't refute there is probably at least one bus vote on Conman due to his play just being that awful

You then call out d3x and SiN as the remaining Scum. Neither were on the Conman Wagon. Thoughts?

[d3x]

@Dun- I'd like to know your thoughts on D1 and some reads, plz.

[Kthxbye]

Meh, should have said possibility. Thanks for bringing that up though. Yay! Another scum read without rereading!
VOTE: SiN

[Kthxbye]

Yup, reread SiN, I like my vote. 2 scum in 2 days. I'm awesome.

[SaintKerrigan]

-Ghostly Bump-

Conman, don't post in this game, for any reason, after you've been declared dead. That's against site rules, and you can be banned for doing stuff like this.

___

Well, I was pretty sure that Conman would flip VI town, but I was wrong. I was getting a feeling that Huntress was scum, and I was also wrong. Havingfitz dying doesn't surprise me, since he pushed really hard for Conman's lynch. I agree with whoever said Huntress was likely a vigkill.

Dun's truncated posting style makes me feel suspicious, but I also seriously doubt that scum would just suddenly drop the L-1 on a partner when they had a chance to get someone else lynched. (Unless Slandaar also happens to be scum. Which isn't impossible, but my gut feeling is that the Slandaar-d3x fight was town-on-town, which would make Slandaar town.)

I already feel like I can read kthnx better now that he's not hyperfocused on Conman, and the way he went after d3x, but then backed down when d3x countered the arguments, just feels like he's town.

Merry Christmas, everyone.

[Singer is Nachomamma]

welp, i'm an idiot.
won't have time until tomorrow still.

[Gorgon]

I don't think Conman was smart enough act opposite of who he knew was on his team.

I think it's quite possible that he might have been smart enough to do just that, and even to do it sometimes and sometimes not. As d3x points out we have him agreeing with confirmed townie Huntress at one point. Of course, rereading him post confirmation as scum is definitely not useless, but I don't think it's straightforward either.

I also think Slandaar is pretty town by default due to the odds being so low that the only 2 lynch options for day 1 are/were both scum.

This is really poor logic based on Gambler's Fallacy. Conman being Scum does not mean that Slandaar cannot be.

True. I kinda get where Kthx is going here but it is still statistically false. The fact that the day finished with a wagon on a scum and another on Slandaar has, on its own, no bearing on the likelihood of Slandaar being scum. It does give plenty of information though, especially the activity surrounding the wagons.

Honestly, I could really care less about how this reads at this point. I know that I'm going to swing today due to my interactions with the Conman Lynch D1. When I flip Town, you will be able to go back and read these thoughts again and know that they come from a place of truth. [poetic]I'm not playing for Today, I'm playing for Tomorrow[/poetic].

I don't get why you're so sure you're going to swing today, but meh, both town and scum can get paranoid about that. But still this reads to me like you would be behaving differently if you weren't so sure that you weren't about to be lynched, which seems strange to me. It's normal to me to hold little or nothing back as town no matter if you think you're about to bite the bullet or not.

Conman, don't post in this game, for any reason, after you've been declared dead. That's against site rules, and you can be banned for doing stuff like this.

Not quite true:

5. One "bah" post is permitted if you die

[Gorgon]

I do admit that Dun's vote made me raise an eyebrow.

Dun's truncated posting style makes me feel suspicious, but I also seriously doubt that scum would just suddenly drop the L-1 on a partner when they had a chance to get someone else lynched.

The first quote is post-hammer btw. SK seems suspicious of Dun's vote, but then switches over to the vote being not suspicious when Conman flips scum since he feels that scum voting scum at that point would have been an unlikely move. This strengthens SK's claimed read of Conman as town VI in my eyes and makes SK more likely town in my eyes than I had pegged him as (I have had a gut feeling about something being off about his posts, which I've have a hard time nailing down though). I read a townish sincerity into the flow of these thoughts, to wax poetic.

And oh, merry Christmas!

[Gorgon]

Regarding SiN, was supposed scum-SiN bold enough to both defend confirmed scum Conman to the death and go after confirmed town fitz with a vengeance? It might make for perfect distancing and WIFOM, but I'm still far from sure that this is what he did. Town do make mistakes, and sometimes huge ones. #220 and #222 are particularly pertinent. SiN does entertain the notion that Conman is scum, then does some reading that disconfirms that notion. So, he seems to be fishing, but just catching the wrong fish. If SiN is scum, he was doing some Oscar-level acting yesterday and I will have egg on my face for believing it, but he is definitely a town read at the moment.

[SaintKerrigan]

Vote: Nobody Special

His ISO is very thin. Not in quantity, but on quality.

He only voted for two people over the course of D1: fitz and Conman. The first fitz vote was RVS, and the second one was in response to SiN's midday case against fitz; the latter was explained merely by the words "I'm convinced", and the subsequent unvote wasn't even explained. Why did he unvote fitz after he claimed to be "convinced" by SiN, NS? I think he saw a chance to push someone other than Conman and took it.

Looking at his initial Conman vote, he essentially sheeped the policy-lynch crowd (if I am interpreting the phrase "kill it with fire" correctly). The one time he jumped off Conman was to vote fitz, but instead of getting back on Conman when he got off fitz, he stayed with an unvote. Why?

While not voting, he begins pressuring Slandaar, but...to put it bluntly, it's a lame attempt at pressuring. Asking someone "Are you scum?" Call it serious or not, that's still hardly doing anything at all. And NS didn't keep following it, even though he claimed the question had meaning to it. How serious was he about this, then?

And then Conman votes Slandaar, horrendously. And

now

NS decides to go back to voting him. Why not vote him after unvoting fitz?

Next, a poor shot at me. Speaking of which,

If Conman does indeed flip scum, I'd be pretty convinced that SK just bussed the hell out of him.

NS, now that Conman has flipped scum, are you going to back this up with some content?

But the kicker. After mildly pressuring Slandaar for a little bit, having not shown

any

reason to really be suspicious of Slandaar, he suddenly claims that he's ready to hammer him. Why? What exactly made Slandaar scummy enough to be willing to drop the hammer on him instead of staying on the Conman lynch?

...to sum all this up, I think NS is scummy. He looks opportunistic with his play and hasn't really pushed any cases of his own.

[qwints]

Merry xmas. V/LA til tomorrow.

[d3x]

I don't get why you're so sure you're going to swing today, but meh

iIrc, more than one person said something along the lines of... 'ConmanScum = meph/d3xScum'. Hell, Huntress was shot last night, and I'm 95% sure it was a Vig.

this reads to me like you would be behaving differently if you weren't so sure that you weren't about to be lynched

I'm not looking to defend my position D1 and I'm not looking to argue how that makes me look {note- this is different from debating flawed logic and weak conclusions}. I'm phrasing as such because if I'm going to get railroaded Today, it will be there to look back on Tomorrow. I probably would be playing differently if I didn't believe the sword of Damocles was hanging over me. I feel that if this is the true course of action, there will be a certain amount of confirmation bias thrown at my posting until said time as I swing, and everything can be looked back over rationally.

It's normal to me to hold little or nothing back as town no matter if you think you're about to bite the bullet or not.

I wouldn't say I am or would be holding things back, but my phrasing, emphasis, and arguments will definately take on a different tone {ie- You don't have to believe me today, reread after I'm dead}.

Happy Holidays all!

[Nobody Special]

I no longer think SK was bussing Conman. I am certain that SK is town at this point.

[SaintKerrigan]

I no longer think SK was bussing Conman. I am certain that SK is town at this point.

...care to explain why you've changed your mind? Or why you suddenly think I'm town?

[SaintKerrigan]

Or, for that matter, why you didn't respond to anything I posted about you? Especially since there were aspects of my case on you that I was hoping you'd address.

[Singer is Nachomamma]

Er actually

UNVOTE

VOTE: qwints

maybe...? this was his only non-wagon vote, save his RVS.

Mod: Vote Count Plox

...derp. read p151 and use very simple math. Only one vote changed in 9 posts from last vote count. Even if you were town (not likely), I can't trust you or any replacement you would have if you chose that route. Anyone not thinking you are scum should vote you for policy.

There is nothing against asking that it is good to know and you seem to try and take fire away from yourself by finding small mistakes in what I post and also it is good to know the colour because I am colour blind and don't want to make mistakes

UNVOTE

Vote: kthxbye

don't think kthx is scum

Unvote
Vote: Nobody Special

had he put me ( fake ) L-1 then two people might have paniced or seen that I was done so they might have voted for me, very scummy

don't think ns is scum

@Mala Also you and Absta seem to have a history so I am just going to stay away for that

would guess absta is scum from this

I bet your scum you seem to only post about me and what other people say about me, it gives off a weird vibe but I still don't think your scum

Fos: Qwints

considering how opportunistic conman was for the whole of yesterday, I think this is especially strange

You guys made some good points!

UNVOTE
VOTE: Slaandar

i don't think slandaar is scum

so, a guess at the scumteam from conman's iso alone says a qwintz/dunhamganger scumteam
qwints is the only player who conman ends up voting from his own premonition and who he ends up fosing, so the motive for expressing suspicion on someone he's not trying to get lynched is most likely distancing, and he refuses to touch the mala/absta "history" deal while he was more than happy to jump into the slandaar/d3x one, so i'd guess that's because he didn't want to give his read on one of them, and my bet is that it wasn't mala.

so that's where i'm sitting before a read, but I'm going through now.

[SaintKerrigan]

@SiN: If you don't believe Slandaar is scum, does this mean you think dunhamganger-scum would choose to vote for his scumbuddy Conman rather than for town-Slandaar, who was at L-1?

Why do you think looking at Conman's ISO would be particularly helpful? Honestly, his play was so erratic and unreliable that I don't know if there's anything positive to be gained from analyzing it. (Personally, I'm more interested in seeing how people reacted to Conman, since those reads are more reliable, at least to me.)

Your reads from your last post:
kthnx, ns, slandaar = not scum
absta, qwintz, dunhamganger = scum

This is solely based on your ISO read of Conman, correct? If not, could you elaborate on those reads?

[AngryPidgeon]

Vote Tally 2.2

Singer is Nachomamma (L - 5):

KthxBye

Nobody Special (L - 5):

Saint Kerrigan

Slandaar (L - 5):

D3x

Pacifists (Not Voting):

qwints, Nobody Special, Malakittens, Dunhamganger, Singer is Nachomamma, Gorgon, Slandaar

With 10 alive, it is 6 to lynch or 5 to "No Lynch".

d3x (L - 6):

Saint Kerrigan (L - 6):

Gorgon (L - 6):

KthxBye (L - 6):

Malakittens (L - 6):

Dunhamganger (L - 6):

qwints (L - 6):

((expired on 2013-01-13 23:59:59))

[Malakittens]

Alright, post to come later tonight.