Mini 1401 - Game over!

[d3x]

You guys are dismissing a piece of the puzzle that could easily account for all of this. Slandaar is Scum. Conman had the most heat, there was no way he would've lived much longer if he wasn't killed D1. It's always better to drop the obvScum partner, even if they are a PR. This also gives TownCred to anyone riding/pushing the Wagon.

Slandaar Scum also makes sense with Voting analysis. People are conjecturing where the 3rd Scum vote was. You guys are having a hard time believing that there were 2 bus Votes. I think it wasn't on either Wagon. 1 on Slandaar Wagon, 1 on Conman Lynch, and 1 that was supposed to be on the Conman Wagon, but for reasons I've already discussed, was forcibly left behind.

[Kthxbye]

If slandaar is scum, why would conman, who knew he had lots of heat that prob would never go away, go for bussing his partner who was playing at the very least less scummy. Now friend, noob-scum conman voted for the mislynch. I'll believe that till a lylo situation where slandaar is still alive. At such a point, I'd have to reconsider

[Malakittens]

I'm really not entirely set that Slandaar is scum due to how the counter wagon appeared. I mean yes he can be scum, but it's a risky move to have two scum buddies on the blocking block like we had during Day 1.

I'm still thinking that Qwints or Dun is scum. Not sure how plausibile them both being scum is, but I think it's something worth looking at. To be frank the way Qwints voted and then the way Conman FoS'd him looks like complete distancing.

Just forgot that people are still V/LA for the holidays, but hopefully when it's over a post will come from the Absta-slot.

[Kthxbye]

Highly doubtful dun is scum at this time. He could have easily explained a Slandaar hammer or waiting for NS to hammer Slandaar as NS had stated. Scum-Dun literally had no good reason to bus Conman when Slandaar was all but lynched.

[Gorgon]

Btw, I realize that calling NS scum would me no scum on conman's wagon. I'm ok with that.

What do you mean? NS was on Conman's wagon ...

If slandaar is scum, why would conman, who knew he had lots of heat that prob would never go away, go for bussing his partner who was playing at the very least less scummy.

I would call a vote on Slaandar at that point distancing rather than bussing, seeing that Conman's vote was the fourth one and therefore wasn't exactly putting Slaandar into immediate danger. Still doesn't explain why Conman didn't move off the wagon when the heat really went down though ... so yeah.

This is a bit interesting in this context though:

Vote: Slandar

His voting pattern is suspicious an he seems to be one of the scum.

This vote came out of nowhere with an obviously made-up reason and went away very quickly. Could be distancing but then again it could be nothing. Yeah, I'm still wishy-washy like that.

I have been rereading the game and even focusing on particular people and seeing reasons that they might be scum, but then I see good reasons that they are not scum too. For instance, while NS has some scummy qualities to him, his #261 where he mixes up town/scum in a line of thought about Conman doesn't make a whole lot of sense if he's scum, unless he's faking it of course, but I think elaborate ruses like these are rare with scum. If someone gets a train of thought like that wrong it's most likely that it's because that someone doesn't have his train of thought neatly railed down, as scum do. Their derailments have to be faked, and they are seldom as obvious as that in my experience.

I have a few people that I'm pretty convinced are

town

, but the rest are pretty much in the same unfruitful 50/50 category as of yet. No major scum bells going off.

This may make me useless/scummy, but I have to call them as I see them.

Highly doubtful dun is scum at this time. He could have easily explained a Slandaar hammer or waiting for NS to hammer Slandaar as NS had stated. Scum-Dun literally had no good reason to bus Conman when Slandaar was all but lynched.

I find this a convincing argument, but would like to hear from Dun himself what he was thinking back then. It's kind of weird to be discussing someone's motivations like this in their absence when we can just ask them. It's not like the guy is dead but he's being discussed as if he were. So basically, apart from the fact that it wasn't a real hammer, I agree with this question:

Which basically means we don't know whether or not he had a scum read or a town read on Con before hammering. We had two other replacements before Dun and they supplied content, but we are allowing Dun to slide by why?

[Kthxbye]

Huh, so you are right. For some reason I had it in my head that NS wasn't voting....good call and fits my scum-team read perfectly!

[Kthxbye]

What's your thoughts on SiN gorgon?

[AngryPidgeon]

Sorry guys, Im here. Been on a skitrip. Vote count will be up before end of today.

[AngryPidgeon]

Vote Tally 2.3

Dunhamganger (L - 4):

Malakittens, Singer is Nachomamma

Singer is Nachomamma (L - 5):

Kthxbye

Nobody Special (L - 5):

Saint Kerrigan

Slandaar (L - 5):

D3x

d3x (L - 5):

Slandaar

Pacifists (Not Voting):

qwints, Nobody Special, Dunhamganger, Gorgon

With 10 alive, it is 6 to lynch or 5 to "No Lynch".

Saint Kerrigan (L - 6):

Gorgon (L - 6):

KthxBye (L - 6):

Malakittens (L - 6):

qwints (L - 6):

((expired on 2013-01-13 23:59:59))

[Dunhamganger]

I've had a death in the family, should be able to post in a few days.

[AngryPidgeon]

Slandaar and Saint Kerrigan are V/LA, so no prods are due.

[Slandaar]

Yeah sorry will post tomorrow going out now will have proper access after tonight

[Nobody Special]

Prod Dodge 2: Electric Boogaloo! (Special Holiday Edition)

[Singer is Nachomamma]

But the point is Dun could have lurked his way to deadline. Do you really think he went out of his way to get a Conman lynch when saying nothing probably results in NS hammering slandaar?

Yes. I think that it's plausible he figured the towncred was worth it.

[d3x]

Alright, well it seems there will still be a few days before my #1 and #2 suspects come back. I'll get the deets out now and they can respond when they're back.

I like Dun for my last Scum suspect. I think that the makeup of Scum Voting/interaction of note D1 was as follows...

Conman

- 1st 2 Votes of D1 are on Slandaar and absta, before any real pressure on them has one listed Town and one listed 'Undetermined' here, weak flip on Slandaar here, super weak flip on Slandaar read here to which he never responds to the 'points' specifically despite requests, End of Day Bus Vote on Slandaar when it looked to be the only way to save his own ass {outlined previously}, Survivor mentality, flipped Scum PR

Slandaar

- weak Vote on Conman Wagon for most of the Day, then jumps to me for made up reasons {detailed previously}, cannot get back to Conman Wagon to earn TownCred b/c it would look terribad, the rest of the case was presented previously... multiple times

absta/Dun

- pushes Conman to replace out rather than Lynch himself here <- this is the first mention of Conman despite him being the hot button issue of the 1st 5 pages, followed by a weak read here, followed by an intent to Hamer here, he then leaves Conman alone again until this... odd interaction, hard yet very suspect pull for Conman Lynch {here, here, and here} trying to dodge out of obv support for Slandaar Lynch detailed here, 0 content from Dun after replacing in, 2 Days running, absta summary= dances around Conman the entire Day until he pushes the Wagon hard without riding it, never truly interacts with Conman whom he states intent to Lynch 3x

Of particular note - almost the entirity of absta and Slandaar's interaction D1 was nonsense fluff about the {lack of} RVS Voting on each other {lasting through page 9 with no real conclusion}

I'd prefer to Lynch Slandaar 1st, but have no real preference. Either way, we need content from both Today before proceeding w/ Lynching

[Kthxbye]

Wow, how can you and I have totally opposite reads if we're both town? It's a solid thought process, but I see SiN and NS being much more suspect.

[Malakittens]

The way SiN defended is extremely risky for scum-scum. I think Qwints is more suspect than NS tbh.

[Kthxbye]

Fine, I'll let someone else lead today. I'll just go for the most popular wagon.
UNVOTE:

[Slandaar]

Conman

- 1st 2 Votes of D1 are on Slandaar and absta, before any real pressure on them has one listed Town and one listed 'Undetermined' here, weak flip on Slandaar here, super weak flip on Slandaar read here to which he never responds to the 'points' specifically despite requests, End of Day Bus Vote on Slandaar when it looked to be the only way to save his own ass {outlined previously}, Survivor mentality, flipped Scum PR

Yes, that is why he was scum along with his other nonsense.

Note: survivor mentality explains all his 'flips' on me. It is clear when he started to call me town was because I wasn't voting him any longer ie buddying.

Slandaar

- weak Vote on Conman Wagon for most of the Day, then jumps to me for made up reasons {detailed previously}, cannot get back to Conman Wagon to earn TownCred b/c it would look terribad, the rest of the case was presented previously... multiple times

Why would I 'weak vote' a buddy? I would gain no towncred.

Keep twisting things, I would obviously have voted Conman if I were around when the lynch happened he flips scum how do I look 'terribad'?

Anyways, anyone can meta me to see I never unbus when I am bussing, I ride the wagon the whole way (if you bus you need to get towncred from it) so I am pretty obvtown at this point considering I was the counterwagon to scum and meta etc.

So...

Meph defends Conman as he was new and felt bad, I pointed out how obvious Conman was, Meph still says he thinks the case is bad and then Vanishes without explanation.

Dex replaces in again defends Conman using the VI defence and tries to start a counterwagon to save his buddy, Conman of course switches his town read on me to scum and sheeps him, Dex ignores this because he has to as there is no way to defend it even the VI defence doesn't work here.

Now, the reason the VI defence was so bad is because if someone is a VI they will be as scum also (call it an SI), but when they are just making stuff up as they go along there is no town motivation behind it, you don't just make something up as town as Dex knows as shown;

then jumps to me for made up reasons {detailed previously},

Dex's whole case on me is basically that he is trying to push I made up reasons (I didn't but ignore that) the point is, he knows it is scummy but he still says Conman is town when half the case on Conman was exactly the same.

So why did he think he was town? (he shouldn't have hes scum)

[Slandaar]

So, explaining the Absta thing; basically we were in a different game where he was lynched and I was scum and I had buddied him hard, I made a bad assumption thinking he knew I was scum there; he obviously didn't but hence I expected him to vote me and he thought it strange.

Anyways that is pretty irrelevant now.

[Kthxbye]

Slandaar, reads on SiN, NS and qwints at this point in the game?

[d3x]

I'll respond in full tonight, but for the nonce...

Either Slandaar or myself needs to die Today, because I don't see either of us letting go {and if it's me, he can follow Tomorrow}.

[Kthxbye]

Well, I'll wait for Slandaar to respond before following you blindly. I still find it hard to believe that both wagons D1 were scum and both very close to being lynched. I mean, it's not like it was L-1 and L-3, it was L-1 and L-1.

I'm also not sure what to think of your eagerness to be lynched when I don't even see you on the table right now.

[Kthxbye]

Let's say Slandaar flips scum, does that make you town the rest of the game? How bout if you flipped scum, would that make Slandaar town?

[SaintKerrigan]

I'll respond in full tonight, but for the nonce...

Either Slandaar or myself needs to die Today, because I don't see either of us letting go {and if it's me, he can follow Tomorrow}.

I don't like this. Why do we need to polarize everyone again, so early in the day

and

after what just happened on Day 1?