Micro 130: Noughts & Crosses Mafia

[Bitmap]

VOTE: BBmolla

[saporovirus]

Why?

[serrapaladin]

If we're playing like last time, three-in-a-row trumps other wincons.

@mod, right?

Lynching Blueberry would have been an awful idea, it would have given scum a full choice of kills.

I still think Rondar might be scum, but at this point his lynch also leaves scum too many options.

BB and Channel, and possibly Bitmap and sapo should be in the lynchpool for today.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hi, everyone. I lightly skimmed the thread earlier and am reading again now. As far as lynch policy goes, though, it's still quicker to lynch the scum than it is to win by grid. So narrowing down the lynch pool based on grid alone is not protown.

[ChannelDelibird]

In fact, unless I'm missing something, it's ALWAYS quicker to lynch scum in this game than it is to win by grid. It's at best a way of deciding between two equally scummy people but more than not a distraction, I think.

[serrapaladin]

If we lynch Mitillos or me, scum can pretty much force a win, regardless of whether we're scum or not. If we lynch Rondar, scum can force a win unless both scum are among Bitmap, sapo and Rondar.

[ChannelDelibird]

If we hunt properly we can lynch them before they do that. Grid does not trump scumminess today in any way.

[serrapaladin]

You seem to be a bit too confident in your scumhunting.

Why would it be relevant that it's QUICKER to lynch scum. Surely we should be concerned about actually winning, and unless we're certain about a scumread, lynching according to the grid gives us a better chance of that happening.

[ChannelDelibird]

What I'm worried about here is how we go about framing our discussion today. If we look for scum to fit an optimal grid pattern, confirmation bias becomes more of an issue, we start looking for pairs that would help to be there rather than the pairs that actually are there. I'm not saying my scumhunting is infallible (far from it) but yes, I think that if we look for scum, not a puzzle piece, we should be able to find it.

[serrapaladin]

Fair enough, but I don't think there's anything wrong with starting off by "focusing" on more than half of the remaining players. I don't think between four targets, confirmation bias is that big a factor.

[Empking]

Vote Count 2

BBmolla (2) - serrapaladin, Bitmap

Not Voting: BBmolla, Mitillos, Rondar, saporovirus, ChannelDeliBird

(expired on 2013-03-09 16:47:11) Seven Alive, Four to lynch.

Three in row trumps other win cons.

[Mitillos]

If we lynch Rondar, serra or me AND if this is a mislynch, we lose. So, if anyone wants to push any of those 3 wagons, they had better be 100% on the guilt. I have town reads on both Rondar and serra right now, so I will not support either.
Venrob/CDB and BB were the other two people on the Siv wagon.
At the moment, I'm in favour of the BB wagon, but I'll hold off for a bit, until I reread stuff.

@Bitmap: You are voting BB. I hope you realise that you'd better be pretty certain of his guilt, because if he gets lynched, you're automatically the target for the night-kill. That is, mafia won't get to choose a target; you will be it (see post 1). Are you OK with this?

[Rondar]

I have slight townreads on serra at the moment. Mitillos more so.. BB has been weird for me for a while, but I'm abstaining from voting for just a little while. Sapo is another weird one. A BB/sapo team has a good ring to it, but I'd like to see more posting from sapo before I decide. Bitmap could go either way. As Mit pointed out, he's basically guaranteeing his death. This could be ultra-towny, or a scumslip. I'll wait for the reply. CDB hasn't given any definitive reads so far, so if you haven't guessed it, looks like I'm playing the waiting game. (Venrob sure hasn't given us much to go off of.)

[serrapaladin]

What do you mean by it being a scumslip? I think it's definitely townie behavior to vote for a lynch that will lead to your own death. If he's gambling on the fact that BB will get himself out of this, that's one ballsy move by scum. I don't think scum-Bitmap would play badly enough to "accidently" cause his own death, if that's what you mean by scumslip.

[Rondar]

It is what I meant, actually. Saying it like that makes it sound a tad... stupid. But think of it this way, scum would 'study' the board differently than a townmember would, and often not look for 'who is the best lynch for town?', and this detail could have slipped by. But yeah, I guess that would require him to be pretty dim. I'll still wait for his reaction to this.

[ChannelDelibird]

Delayed my morning read because of being asleep. Getting back to it shortly.

[Bitmap]

Yeah, I'm pretty confident on the BB scum read. I know I'll get killed tonight.

[BBmolla]

Ooooor you'll get killed because town wins if we lynch me and then you and it's irrelevent to my alignment.

[Rondar]

BB... what?

[BBmolla]

We lynched Siv yesterday. If we lynch me today, we just need to lynch Bitmap tomorrow and town wins. OR, Bitmap dies, through killing self or being killed, and the game isn't over.

Is this really that confusing?

[Mitillos]

Yes. Yes, it is.

If we lynch you today, Bitmap dies automatically tonight. That's what the last point in post 1 is saying.

[Rondar]

Yes. Yes, it is.

If we lynch you today, Bitmap dies automatically tonight. That's what the last point in post 1 is saying.

[Rondar]

Even if it didn't happen automatically, I'm confused as to why you would assume scum wouldn't auto kill him/he wouldn't kill himself?

[serrapaladin]

BB is making very little sense, which confuses me, because I would think as scum he'd make sure to understand the mechanics...

[Rondar]

As town too...