Micro 130: Noughts & Crosses Mafia

[BBmolla]

A sapo lynch would probably be the best lynch. I take back my Serra-Scum read btw.

[Bitmap]

A sapo lynch would probably be the best lynch. I take back my Serra-Scum read btw.

So when I get back home, I'll explain why this post makes me cringe with a wall of text.

[Rondar]

Oh do explain! But I'm not gonna be here to hear it *mocking laugh*

@Mod V/LA until Wednesday

[Empking]

Vote Count 3

BBmolla (2) - serrapaladin, Bitmap

Not Voting: BBmolla, Mitillos, Rondar, saporovirus, ChannelDeliBird

(expired on 2013-03-09 16:47:11) Seven Alive, Four to lynch.

[Mitillos]

Must be a really long trip home...

[ChannelDelibird]

Right. Hell with this. I've been too slow. This is happening now. I'm-a go through everything, get some reads and a nice juicy vote. Sorry it's taken so long. We are GO.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK. I started my readthrough by picking out specific posts on which to comment and kinda got looser with that policy as I went on, as a result of getting confident enough in my reads not to have to pick things out.

The key notes

TOWN

Molla - I had some early worries but his vote in #70 and his fakehammer attempt strongly suggest to me mollatown.
serra - I've not always loved what he's said (#29 seemed like something that scum would love to be able to say) but I think #97 is a good enough example of a level-headed town mindset, plus I have enough other scumreads, that I'm not interested in touching him today.
Mitillos - His #53 is probably my favourite vote in the game up until now. Confident but not cocky and going out there to get things done without fear.

THE REMAINING SCUMPOOL

The scumdar is pinging for me on all three to various extents.
Bitmap - #54 is the biggest scumpost in the game so far. Mitillos's #53 seems to have stirred a serious reaction but, crucially, Bitmap does not follow up on this. Mitillos doesn't answer the question of "Wtf is this shit?" and Bitmap seems OK with that. It doesn't make sense to me, considering the instinctual nature of the vote. I just don't understand why townBitmap would completely let this go.
Rondar - in #37, he votes molla as "self-explanatory read-wise" despite the fact that he is looking at three other corner players and only describes one as town, with molla one of two "little to null". I don't understand that and nobody picks up on it. His behaviour around Siv feels quite like confident scum capitalising on a linguistic error.
Saporo - We've heard very, very little from saporo and she seems comfortable lurking. Inclined to think that if there two non-saporo scum in the game, one of them would have called her out more seriously.

It's close, but my order of confidence in scumreads is Bitmap > saporo > Rondar, though I'm kinda fuzzy on the last two. I get a definite feeling that bitmap is posting to be seen more than he is posting to achieve any particular protown goal. I am also thoroughly unimpressed by the vote on molla.

VOTE: Bitmap

[ChannelDelibird]

Worth noting that saporovirus has made five posts.

[serrapaladin]

What do you think of Bitmap's lack of self-preservation?

[ChannelDelibird]

The expectation of being killed tonight, are you saying? I don't think it's particularly indicative either way in and of itself.

[BBmolla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Bitmap

Thats what I was gonna do.

[ChannelDelibird]

^5

[serrapaladin]

Right. Now, a BB lynch will lead to a Bitmap NK and vice versa. I think getting the X on BB will make tomorrow's board nicer.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm not lynching a townread for the board.

[ChannelDelibird]

And, er, hang on but an X on molla and a nought on Bitmap gets us nowhere on the board.

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh no, hang on, I get what you're saying. Thinking a bit more on it.

[ChannelDelibird]

Fuck, I actually have to get deeply analytical about this. I had hoped the board would be more of a throwaway mechanic than this.

Sigh. Working on it.

[serrapaladin]

I solved the stats for the board last game, which I can refer to if necessary, but I'd rather not reveal too much about optimal play for scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

Yeah, I'll try to do as much of the thinking off-thread as I can, but I'm pretty sure I need to think it through myself rather than take stats as read. Just how I learn things better.

[BBmolla]

If we lynch me or Bitmap, assumedly the other will die regardless.

[serrapaladin]

Yes, that's what I was saying. And I find from a town perspective the X on you looks a bit "nicer."

[BBmolla]

How so, it becomes useless tomorrow when Bitmap dies. If we lynch Bitmap we at least have the option of going that top row.

It's probably Sapo/Bitmap anyway. Idc.

[BBmolla]

Wait

Nvm we lynch me.

It gives us a more optimal oppurtunity to lynch Sapo.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: BBmolla

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, I wrote up a bunch of permutations which I think are best to keep to myself but, based on my reads and how which of the realistic lynches have which potential for screwing town over in which ways, a molla lynch suits me best.

Consider this intent to hammer but I'd really like to hear once from Mitillos, Bitmap and saporo before I do so. (Sorry, Rondar, but I'm less fussed about whether you get a word in edgeways this time. Nowt personal.) I would be disappointed if a hammer came before those three posted.

[Mitillos]

I disagree with sera. I think that, if there is a scum in {BB, Bitmap}, the better board arrangement would be from a Bitmap lynch, if only by a bit. And if neither of them is scum, we lose the game anyway, by voting one of them, which seems to be what will happen today.

I would also like to hear more from Bitmap, sapo and Rondar. BB, please unvote, until there has been some more conversation.