Open 473: Jungle Republic GAME OVER

[4nxi3ty]

currently mulling over a tajunmafia, ph/majiffy wolf theory

[Human Destroyer]

Not exactly an out-there plan.

But there are a number of factors that could have been ignored in your WIFOM defense.
1) You might not have planned on him claiming - perhaps you had planned on bussing him without his knowledge, to soak in the late-game towncred.
2) You would have no idea if his claim would or would not save his ass.

So... good job.

1) A little difficult to bus him for 2 days in a row without him noticing, don't you think?
2) So...if it doesn't save his ass I just killed off my partner. If it does save his ass, he's going to die eventually anyway, so I've effectively killed off my partner.

So...yeah, still an A+ plan you have here. This is WIFOM, I'd have to have gone full retard to be mafia at this point.

[Human Destroyer]

This

isn't

WIFOM, I'd have to have gone full retard to be mafia at this point.

[Majiffy]

1) A little difficult to bus him for 2 days in a row without him noticing, don't you think?
2) So...if it doesn't save his ass I just killed off my partner. If it does save his ass, he's going to die eventually anyway, so I've effectively killed off my partner.

So...yeah, still an A+ plan you have here. This is WIFOM, I'd have to have gone full retard to be mafia at this point.

1) Doing something without your partner's knowledge =/= him not noticing. So you still haven't addressed 1.
2) So in other words, your entire point about "bussing him and forcing him to claim to save his ass" had no merit, in which case you never had an argument to begin with.

[Majiffy]

Meanwhile, Rob is trying his damnedest to ignore this conversation because he knows he dun fucked up.

[Rob14]

Meanwhile, Rob is trying his damnedest to ignore this conversation because he knows he dun fucked up.

Nah, just tactically lurking. Waiting for the WW to do something obvious. I think I figured out who it is.

[Human Destroyer]

1) Doing something without your partner's knowledge =/= him not noticing. So you still haven't addressed 1.
2) So in other words, your entire point about "bussing him and forcing him to claim to save his ass" had no merit, in which case you never had an argument to begin with.

1) So...why would I bus him without his knowledge? What would that accomplish? And no, getting towncred is not an answer.
2) The point was that I forced out a claim; why in hell would I do that as his scumbuddy? To greatly increase my chances of losing? Yeah okay.

Also notice how pretty much all the interactions you're having trouble with are coming from a claimed mafia and not from me.

>.>

<.<

[Majiffy]

Rob is trying his damnedest to ignore this conversation

just tactically lurking

I fail to see the difference.

[Majiffy]

1) So...why would I bus him without his knowledge? What would that accomplish? And no, getting towncred is not an answer.

Actually, it is. From my experience as a die-hard buddy busser, the best way to get "no way those interactions were bussing" interactions is by surprising the fuck out of your partner.

2) The point was that I forced out a claim; why in hell would I do that as his scumbuddy? To greatly increase my chances of losing? Yeah okay.

Actually your point originally was that you couldn't be bussing because

a buddy wouldn't bus his scumbuddy just to force a claim

. It didn't question why; it merely denied the fact that it could ever happen. To which you have essentially denied afterwards.

Also notice how pretty much all the interactions you're having trouble with are coming from a claimed mafia and not from me.

"Trouble with", lol. Rob hasn't given a single point I haven't refuted readily, with proof.

[Majiffy]

Oh wait, I'm sorry, the linchpin of your point earlier was

bussing to save him

, which you later denied. Please amend the bolded above as necessary.

[Tajun]

HD/Rob scumteam. Rob hops on when HD tells him to, realizes how bad it looks, goes back to voting me.

Kinda doubt that Rob would claim if his remaining partner was going down in flames right beside him. Stupid though his plan was, I'm hoping that he's not that crazy.

I see you didn't actually address the part where you jumped on the wagon, and the inherent issues with that jump compared with your previous behavior. Or, if you did, it wasn't in the section where you voted Aldu.

Inherent problems such as? I didn't like the wagon because I didn't think Aldus had done anything all that scummy. Then he lurked through two interesting conversations and forgot to scumhunt. I was never fully convinced he would flip scum, but he was useless and a bit scummy, and the only other serious option was my townread. I'm having trouble figuring out why you find that scummy.

[Majiffy]

Kinda doubt that Rob would claim if his remaining partner was going down in flames right beside him. Stupid though his plan was, I'm hoping that he's not that crazy.

Desperate times, desperate measures. Also, Rob doesn't strike me as the brightest bulb.

Inherent problems such as? I didn't like the wagon because

I didn't think Aldus had done anything all that scummy. Then he lurked through two interesting conversations and forgot to scumhunt.

I was never fully convinced he would flip scum, but he was useless and a bit scummy, and the only other serious option was my townread. I'm having trouble figuring out why you find that scummy.

That's the point; it was really too weak an argument to have reversed your position on a wagon you had been giving a lot of bad noise to.

[ProHawk]

Still think we should lynch HD, but haven't had a chance to go back over stuff.

[Majiffy]

Eh if we're aiming for mafia it'd be better just to go with Rob.

[4nxi3ty]

If one of {Majiffy, ProHawk} flips scum then SERIOUSLY look at the other.

yehh wolf should lie in here.

Ald bussing PH to recover from his mod-vote sooorta makes sense, at least more so than majiffy leaving the PHwagon for the Aldwagon when they were tied at four.

~~~

Now what was Rob trying to accomplish by placing Tajun at L-1 when he was very much convinced majiffy was wolf.

And Rob removing his vote immediately after PH says he is going to hammer is something to ponder.

[ProHawk]

Anxiety, if you think that someone who was likely going to die would out his only other partner just to get a mis-lynch that would be a terrible play. I would be more willing to bet that neither Majiffy nor I are the other wolf. I think you are overlooking the fact that there are two scum-factions with which if his suggestion was taken seriously would implicate another non-wolf lynch should Majiffy or myself turn up as Mafia.

[Josh Lyman]

Second Votecount (Day 4)

Human Destroyer: (2) ProHawk, Tajun
Majiffy: (1) Rob13
Tajun: (2) Human Destroyer, Majiffy

Not Voting: 4nxi3ty

(expired on 2013-03-26 20:03:19)

6 alive, 4 for lynch

[Tajun]

Ok Majiffy, if you're busy giving reasons it must be me, I'll at least volunteer one it isn't.

Tajun, you didn't seem to think I was scum for a really long time, then suddenly you thought I was an okay lynch. What happened?

ProHawk, you're a lynch candidate, if you think you're not then you're lying or severely mistaken.

I doubt that a scumbuddy would bring attention to his partner's poor bussing attempt, unless he is playing a bizarre game. Of course, if we aren't partners it makes perfect sense to ask questions like these.

Eh if we're aiming for mafia it'd be better just to go with Rob.

I still don't think Rob is a good lynch, even in that situation. It gives the wolf the option to choose a target, and eliminates one of our chances to catch him. Since we are down to two, that's a pretty serious blow. If we hit the second maf, that at least makes our endgame easier (although we still only get one more shot at the wolf). I don't see any benefit to lynching Rob, unless we think he might be a wolf.

[ProHawk]

Tajun is making perfect sense. Anxiety at the moment is not. Still looking things over, be back with a wall of evidence soon.

[4nxi3ty]

Anxiety, if you think that someone who was likely going to die would out his only other partner just to get a mis-lynch that would be a terrible play. I would be more willing to bet that neither Majiffy nor I are the other wolf. I think you are overlooking the fact that there are two scum-factions with which if his suggestion was taken seriously would implicate another non-wolf lynch should Majiffy or myself turn up as Mafia.

not really. Both you and him were lynch candidates during D1 so desperate bussing to salvage a situation is possible. And if his buddy happened to flip scum than he had an excuse to push a lynch the next day.

Ald bussing PH to recover from his mod-vote sooorta makes sense,

at least more so than majiffy leaving the PHwagon for the Aldwagon when they were tied at four.

nvm momentum was already shifting towards ald so a bus there is not unreasonable.

Still at a bit of a loss. Still confident HD is town though.

Tajun, who do you think is likely to be second mafia?

[4nxi3ty]

wall of evidence soon.

wall x.x

shrug

. Evidence is good, being concise is better.

[ProHawk]

I'll try to make it legible for you Anx.

[4nxi3ty]

nah it's cool just hit my limit with walls lately

[ProHawk]

It's been pretty clear since Whiskers been gone

[ProHawk]

The Wolf-Hunt.

I can see two ends of the spectrum: from a hard-bus, last ditch effort to save a teamie, or complete apathy and soft-bus-hammer at the end. That leaves my top two suspects as HD and Anxiety. Below is the case for Anxiety.

Anxiety -

I started to get some doubts on Anxiety starting with his post about narrowing the wolf-list to me and Majiffy. Then I looked at his voting pattern, and I noticed he hasn't placed one vote today. His pattern of voting in general has also been likewise sparse. So I decided to take a look at the Anx/Aldus interaction. It was nearly non-existent. Here is the extent of Anx's posts on Aldus. Basically sitting on the fence with light defending of Aldus, until its obvious that Aldus is going down. This would be a typical wolf-wolf interaction in my opinion in that it's the least risky in terms of calling attention to yourself without contributing to his lynch.

Spoiler: Anx's Posts about Aldus

not sure what to make of alduskkel soft pushing the whisker wagon yet.

looking back I like alduskkel's reaction to thor's original case more than prohawk's

Lynching a heavy lurker day one isn't the worst idea.

wanting a policy lynch instead of a scum lynch this late in the day? <.<

sigh
don't want either a ph or ald lynch

4nxiety what is it that bothers you so much about an Aldus lynch.

don't have a strong read on ald. Some of his posts are good, others not so much. I'm not in the business of lynching null reads.

I prefer a ald lynch to a prohawk one, VC and deadline?

vote: ald

(someone should double check the votes and hammer if this isn't it, i believe deadline ends in seven hours)

Spoiler: Aldus' interaction with Anxiety

Yeah... you won't find anything here either. He didn't mention Anxiety... not even once.

Where I find this strange is that Aldus intentionally marked a few players in order to throw the scent. In fact, he mentioned/addressed every player except Anxiety.

On the other hand, both Aldus and Anxiety are ignoring each-other. More Aldus than Anxiety. Unless Aldus intentionally used reverse psychology to frame Anxiety with a lack of interaction, it looks like they were literally avoiding each other. Take a look at the following example:

unvote,vote: whiskers

for previous reasons and recent disappearance

Do people who are still suspicious Whiskers continue to think that he is acting scummy or is it based mostly/purely on his actions earlier Today?

If it's the former, I'd like to know what the case is.

Aldus doesn't directly ask Anxiety this question, although it was Anxiety that made the vote on Whiskers two posts prior. Anxiety also fails to address this question. It is an awkward exchange at best.

While I am not a fan of night-kill analysis, I believe it has great significance in this case as Anxiety has done a splendid job at posturing his position for his end-game.

Notice the players that leave Anxiety's Town Pile:

ProHawk, HD

, Tajun, and Ausp.

Leaning Town: Rob, Majiffy

Scum: Ucitron, Sky, Whiskers, Thor

Night-Kill Order: Ucitron, Ausp, Thor.

It's important to note that Anxiety spent more than a few posts defending his town-position on both myself and HD (both of which were under fire on D1). Also note that every-one of the players on his scum-list have either been night-killed (Ucitron and Thor) or lynched (Sky, Whiskers). Coincidence? Therefore, his defense of both myself, and HD will have put him in a good-light in both of our eyes for helping to save us from the guillotine. He also has the benefit of not having to go head-to-head against anyone that he had pressured earlier in the end-game. He would be able to go with the flow and coast on this excuse:

hopefully my town game has been shit lately

I don't hold this as high-evidence, but the N1 kill of Ucitron makes complete sense if Anxiety was wanting to shoot mafia.

He clearly caught Ucitron's scum scent, here, here, and here, but never made any moves to lynch him.

My review of Anx's early-play, coupled with his recent actions have led me to believe that he is a high-contender for the last wolf. Majiffy, if you are convinced that HD wouldn't have acted as he did were he Ald's partner, you should re-evaluate Anxiety and tell me what you see here.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: 4nxi3ty

Anxiety, if you were to describe your scum-play, would you say you were more often willing to bus your partner, or be more hesitant? Also, how aggressive are you as scum?