Open 473: Jungle Republic GAME OVER

[ProHawk]

OK Majiffy:

Newbie 1321: Alex and Melo

Alex's vote for Melo D1 was a VERY soft bus, nothing hard at all about it.
He votes for him, but doesn't push a case. In fact his only case was in his first vote post and nothing afterwards.
Melo never attacks him back.
They don't end up lynching Melo D1 and Alex's vote shifts toward a mis-lynch D1.

D2 he gets a little heavier in his bus, but ends up hammering another townie at the end of the day.

After Day 2, him not voting off his partner would have just been poor play.

This Game: Aldus and Hawk??

I begin my vote on Aldus in post #81
He counters with a vote on me in #85
We bicker and attack each other the entire D1.
We take a hiatus in the middle when he disappears and I pursue HD.
Aldus returns and I immediately call him out for his charade and begin my final push.
Aldus-the-wolf dies D1.

The first example you gave was strategic bussing for the win. This game, if I were a wolf would have been literal suicide. Get the difference?

[Majiffy]

So basically what you're telling me is that Alex was ballsier than you, Melo was pussier than Aldu and...?

Your narrative of you and Aldu doesn't look like town on scum. Looks like bad bussing and distancing. So much, in fact, that now I'm tempted to move my vote.

[ProHawk]

You're a moron

[Majiffy]

It's a high possibility.

[ProHawk]

Outline your case on Tajun please.

[Majiffy]

HD's Tajun case convinced me.

[Majiffy]

Are you not reading the thread?

[Majiffy]

Wow twice in 2 pages I've had to ask you that.

You really

aren't

reading.

[ProHawk]

Twice in two pages that you rely on others to play the game for you, or you answering for other players.

[ProHawk]

You worried about screwing up by not being able to get your lies straight Majiffy?

[Majiffy]

Implying I've lied?

[ProHawk]

You tell me brah

[4nxi3ty]

uhhh majiffy hasn't lied as far as I can tell?

[Majiffy]

VOTE: ProHawk

[Tajun]

Sorry, busy tonight. I'll respond to this insanity tomorrow.

[Tajun]

There is no fucking way HD is wolf. It just makes absolutely ZERO sense.

His posting for most of day 1 and day two was that of a man who had given up hope. He was doing nothing, no scumhunting whatsoever, especially day 2. Then, day three comes around, and with the seer dead miraculously he finds his second wind, new life in the game. And suddenly day 4 comes around, and his biggest remaining enemy wakes up dead. You're clearing him on a too scummy to be scum argument. Seriously, that is the only reason why, "scum wouldn't partial bus a team-mate." That's literally the only possible argument I see against the HD lynch.

In addition, he has really caught my attention with his attempt to get Rob lynched, which really only a wolf should want right now.

this isn't true. Wolf shouldn't care about who gets lynched. No matter who it is, they are in the same situation tomorrow: survive tomorrow's lynch.

I have already explained the benefits to a rob lynch today, which I believe trumps any negative you've brought up. The second mafia stands to gain from rob not being lynched too, a buffer from the wolf nk.

You know why I asked you that question, taj, right? Because you agreed with me that we should hunt for the second mafia, yet you didn't take any initiative to do so.

~~~

wish HD would post more. Getting paranoid doubts about Rob not taking the HD hammer when it was available, right now I would say it was because Rob was more interested in lynching wolf than a mislynch, but the more HD lurks the more that 'what if' gnaws at me.

Wrong.

Wolf is in a very different situation tomorrow. Two reasons for this:
1) Rob lynch allows the wolf to target a nightkill at will. Non-Rob lynch means they have to kill Rob (to prevent a maf vic) or no kill (which would be idiotic, as maf win in a three player situation with a wolf if one maf is alive).
2) Rob lynch eliminates one mislynch, giving us only one shot at the wolf. Non-Rob lynch gives us two shots.
It is way,

way

better for the wolf if we lynch Rob today. Seriously, I don't see how you don't get this. It is far better for the maf if we don't, but you know who else it is better for? The town, genius. We get

two

shots to kill the wolf instead of one, and Rob dies regardless. And I have eliminated two suspects from the likely maf pool, which has been far more effective than any straws you have been grabbing at.

Wouldn't make sense to hammer me, especially if he thinks I'm town; he has to lynch wolf or is pretty much fucked.

I don't know if Rob thought far enough ahead but a wolf lynch is a little bit worse for mafia than a town lynch.

wolf gets lynched, rob gets lynched the next day: 3-1 two lynches to hit mafia.

town gets lynched, rob gets nk: 2-1-1 town need to lynch wolf leaving only the next day

in both scenarios mafia needs to survive two lynches except with the second example a lynch is spent looking for wolf.

a rob lynch is the worst case scenario for mafia because wolf could end up killing them off, which is why tajun being strongly against a rob lynch is making lean mafia on him.

Good god 4nx, I really hope you are the wolf, because you are embarrassing yourself if you aren't. Read my argument for why we shouldn't lynch Rob, and actually try thinking about it. You too majiffy, if you still think Rob lynching would be an effective tact against maf today.

And, Prohawk being the only person in town making any fucking sense, naturally he has been voted for. Nice. This town is fucked.

[Majiffy]

There is no fucking way HD is wolf. It just makes absolutely ZERO sense.

His posting for most of day 1 and day two was that of a man who had given up hope. He was doing nothing, no scumhunting whatsoever, especially day 2. Then, day three comes around, and with the seer dead miraculously he finds his second wind, new life in the game. And suddenly day 4 comes around, and his biggest remaining enemy wakes up dead. You're clearing him on a too scummy to be scum argument. Seriously, that is the only reason why, "scum wouldn't partial bus a team-mate." That's literally the only possible argument I see against the HD lynch.

To sit on the wagon from the beginning, just to jump off at L-1 with no hope of the wagon being dismantled?
On day one, and no other teamates, with Seer still alive?

No, HD behavior cannot possibly be wolf behavior.

[4nxi3ty]

2) Rob lynch eliminates one mislynch, giving us only one shot at the wolf. Non-Rob lynch gives us two shots.
It is way,

way

better for the wolf if we lynch Rob today. Seriously, I don't see how you don't get this. It is far better for the maf if we don't, but you know who else it is better for? The town, genius. We get

two

shots to kill the wolf instead of one, and Rob dies regardless. And I have eliminated two suspects from the likely maf pool, which has been far more effective than any straws you have been grabbing at.

I already understand that side of the argument.

With a rob nk you are only eliminating a single suspect since we already know rob is scum, which is the same as a rob lynch just in reverse.

You are arguing that two shots at lynching the wolf is the best move. I am arguing that the two shots is negligible when there is significant uncertainty in the majority about who is wolf. I like the idea of getting one more night of night-kill-analysis to figure things out with the added benefit of the mafia potentially being wiped out, which isn't possible with a non-rob lynch. (tbh neither strategy is game breaking)

~~~

Tajun, how do you go from saying 'hd wolf, ph/anx most likely mafia' to 'hd wolf, ph town, anx could be wolf'? I am just not following that thought process very well.

[ProHawk]

Majiffy voting me is... not a big deal. He is clearly not-town, or if he is... he sure doesn't care about winning.

Majiffy is having a memory-block too. The circumstances surrounding the vote-swap were not so cut clear and dry. There were a number of people who mentioned their vote for Aldus was mostly hinged on his lurking/absence.

Anxiety said he didn't want an Aldus lynch.
Tajun said he "maybe" was worthy of a lynch because of his lurking.
Thor specifically said he opposed an Aldus lynch.

So the players left to hammer Aldus: Whiskers, Sky, Rob, Thor, Anxiety.

When HD decided to switch the vote, there was exactly one day left of voting until the deadline and Aldus had been in the thread making his last argument and not lurking. He knew Thor wasn't going to vote Aldus. He knew Anxiety wasn't going to vote for Aldus. Rob and Sky were both voting for me. So that only left Whiskers to convince to vote for me (which wasn't hard considering our earlier dispute - surprise it only took one vote from HD and one post from Aldus).

So, with his move with one day left, he was able to put Aldus at L-2, AND put me at L-2, with Anxiety and Thor to make the decision, not to mention people that had voted for Aldus because of his lurking (Tajun) may have been swayed to lynch me.

Honestly, it looks like a bold move. You're right Majiffy, it was probably futile for him to try to sway the Aldus lynch, but with the evidence at hand, I could easily see the following go through his mind.

Best Case: ProHawk gets lynched and Aldus either starts playing regularly or he begs him to replace out in night-chat.
Worst Case: A no-lynch happens.
Worst-Worse Case: Aldus gets lynched and he can ride on the scum-"wouldn't have done what I did" excuse.

The wolf is either obvious- HD

or

Not - Anxiety.

I think that relational tell is invalid unless Aldu flips scum.

If Aldu flips scum, then HD would be obvScum

due to the switch.

Hey Rob, where's your vote at?

[Majiffy]

Majiffy voting me is... not a big deal. He is clearly not-town, or if he is... he sure doesn't care about winning.

Loldefense.

And eh, point taken re: HD. I was just looking at the Aldu wagon on its own. Makes a bit more sense. Still a bit too complex for HD for me to believe, though.

[Josh Lyman]

Fourth Votecount (Day 4)

4nxi3ty: (1) ProHawk
Human Destroyer: (1) Tajun
Majiffy: (1) Rob13
ProHawk: (1) Majiffy
Tajun: (1) Human Destroyer

Not Voting: 4nxi3ty

(expired on 2013-03-26 20:03:19)

6 alive, 4 for lynch

[Josh Lyman]

Rob13 has been prodded.

[Rob14]

Well then. I guess I'll just spam post once a day here.

People who are asking me questions and expecting responses that will help narrow down the maf-partner field are going to be very disappointed, btw.

[4nxi3ty]

The wolf is either obvious- HD

or

Not - Anxiety.

Why is tajun and majiffy excluded as possible wolf? I mean I don't really see any evidence thats proves they're wolf, but I am not seeing anything that disproves either.

Ruling out majiffy as mafia: the quickhammer is probly not something mafia would do with wolf still in play + rob's push for his lynch

I will look into HD, I like auspicious' case. Perhaps an HD lynch would be another viable option?

Not something scum would say about a buddy imo.

[ProHawk]

Precisely why I am leaning towards you at the moment.

If you find something that would point to Majiffy or Tajun as the wolf, I would love to hear it.