Open 473: Jungle Republic GAME OVER

[ProHawk]

Majiffy isn't a wolf, we already established this.

[Tajun]

Either Rob is playing a deep-game, in that he wants Majiffy to look like his partner, or Majiffy is actually his partner. It looks more like the latter however. If you were in Rob's position, would you just give up on the person you had pushed as a wolf this whole time? Would you just give up a mis-lynch? The unvote when Majiffy was at L-1 just does not make any sense to frame Majiffy as mafia when a town-Majiffy-lynch, or wolf-Majiffy-lynch would have furthered his team's win-con.

That wouldn't be a deep game. That would be about the shallowest level possible. "Hey, everyone knows I am maf? Why don't I defend someone to see if I can get my partner a free lynch later?"
Or even "Hey, why don't I unvote to see if someone will put him to L-1 so I can hammer?"

No, this doesn't count as reasonable.

VOTE: 4nxi3ty

If we're compromising, this is the one I'd go for. PH and Majiffy both still read town here. Majiffy's play the last few pages has been better, and PH seems to be playing sensibly.

[ProHawk]

Tajun, this is kinda a somewhat pointless topic unless you are town and survive and I die, you need to see this clearly.

He wouldn't need to get his partner a free lynch later when he could have continued to support a mis-lynch. I suppose I could see the second scenario, but it didn't really feel that way to me... also what good would his own hammer give him aside from ending the day early?

[4nxi3ty]

Majiffy isn't a wolf, we already established this.

maybe, but he is definitely not mafia, so he is either wolf or town. It is quite clear that Tajun is mafia.

>minimal interactions between uct/rob/tajun D1 (questions thrown at each other, no votes)
>rob tying tajun to whiskers
>rob immeadiately unvoting tajun today when ph announces intent to hammer
>tajun calling rob scummy if ald flips scum (instead says he has a weak townread on rob because he hasn't seen anything scummy)

If we're compromising, this is the one I'd go for. PH and Majiffy both still read town here. Majiffy's play the last few pages has been better, and PH seems to be playing sensibly.

I've noticed the people you don't want to lynch are the ones who have called you town...

[Human Destroyer]

Majiffy isn't a wolf, we already established this.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ProHawk

L-1 I believe

[ProHawk]

UNVOTE NOW! I NEED TO GET MY SCENARIO CHART POSTED!

[Human Destroyer]

A chart you say?

UNVOTE:

This I gotta see

[Human Destroyer]

(And yes, that's probably going back on you after, so make it good)

[ProHawk]

Its time for a scenario play-by-play, which we probably should have had a few days ago, but it will serve as a good guide for where we stand after the night settles regardless of who we lynch. Quick skim colors to see a wolf-win scenario in RED, a mafia-win in BLUE. Bolded trees are the optimal night-kills for the remaining wolf.

Scenario Tree

Current Count

[6 ALIVE] 2 Mafia, 1 Wolf, 3 Town

Mis-Lynch

[5 ALIVE] 2 Mafia, 1 Wolf, 2 Town

**NIGHT-KILL**

• Town-Kill
  [4 ALIVE] 2 Mafia, 1 Wolf, 1 Town ------->
  MAFIA WIN

• Mafia-Kill
  [4 ALIVE] 1 Mafia, 1 Wolf, 2 Town ---> MYLO Wolf-Lynch Required (A mis-lynch resulting in a
  Mafia Win
  , A Mafia-lynch resulting in a
  Wolf Win
  )

• No-Kill
  [5 ALIVE] 2 Mafia, 1 Wolf, 2 Town --------> MYLO Mafia-Lynch Required (A mis-lynch resulting in a
  Mafia Win
  , a wolf-lynch resulting in a
  Mafia Win
  )

Mafia-Lynch

[5 ALIVE] 1 Mafia, 1 Wolf, 3 Town

**NIGHT-KILL**

• Town-Kill
  [4 ALIVE] 1 Mafia, 1 Wolf, 2 Town ---> MYLO Wolf-Lynch Required (A mis-lynch resulting in a
  mafia-win
  , A mafia-lynch resulting in a
  wolf-win
  )

• Mafia-Kill
  [4 ALIVE] 1 Wolf, 3 Town ---------> Classic MYLO (A mis-lynch resulting in a
  wolf-win
  )

• No-Kill
  [5 ALIVE] 1 Mafia, 1 Wolf, 3 Town --------> More variables to be determined (a mis-lynch could but not ultimately lead to town-loss.)

No-Lynch

[6 ALIVE] 2 Mafia, 1 Wolf, 3 Town

**NIGHT-KILL**

• Town-Kill
  [5 ALIVE] 2 Mafia, 1 Wolf, 2 Town --------> MYLO Mafia-Lynch Required (A mis-lynch resulting in a
  Mafia Win
  , a wolf-lynch resulting in a
  Mafia Win
  )

• Mafia-Kill
  [5 ALIVE] 1 Mafia, 1 Wolf, 3 Town --------> Additional Variables to be determined, not necessarily MYLO.

• No-Kill
  [6 ALIVE] 2 Mafia, 1 Wolf, 3 Town ---------> A Repeat.

Wolf-Lynch

[5 ALIVE] 2 Mafia, 3 Town

**NO NIGHT-KILL**

• [5 ALIVE] 2 Mafia, 3 Town --------> MYLO (A mis-lynch resulting in a
  mafia-win
  )

Analysis coming in the next post.

[ProHawk]

So the unique scenario that we find ourselves in is we have one claimed Mafia. Regardless, with this one claimed Mafia, most roads lead to a Mafia victory.

All of the wolf's optimal plays will be to kill mafia. If he decides to kill town, he will be forced to lose with the town more often than not. In only one scenario could he win by night-killing town and that would be more difficult than just killing mafia.

If we end up with a No-Lynch it would prolong the game, but it would give us more chances to get into LYLO instead of fool around with a host of MYLO's and Mafia-win scenarios. If you are remotely interested in this idea, let me know and I will outline a tree for this outcome as well.

Honestly, with Anxiety coming in at the last minute with his crap excuse to vote me off despite being cool with a Majiffy lynch is super scummy, especially with his backing me the entire Day 1 and then trying to use things I said Day 1 as his excuse to now vote me with a PoE that Majiffy couldn't be a wolf due to his interaction with Aldus. As the remaining wolf, he knows I have a case on him, he knows that if we were placed in MYLO with the need to kill a wolf, my vote could fall on him especially now that I am pushing Majiffy as mafia and not as a wolf.

Should you decide to lynch me, the remaining townies need to follow the mis-lynch tree. In an optimal scenario You MUST lynch the remaining wolf, or you lose. Mafia will be looking for either a no-lynch stale-mate, or a mis-lynch. Wolf will most likely be looking for a mafia lynch, although they still have a chance at winning in a no-lynch scenario, it is much less so as an incorrect night-kill hands the game over to Mafia. Also, if Rob somehow lives through the night, and there is a kill, and the game isn't over he is automatically the wolf.

VOTE: No-Lynch

[ProHawk]

Never-mind. I changed my mind. I don't want to leave the fate of the game in the hands of the wolf.

VOTE: Anxiety

Use VCA to your advantage tomorrow, whomever remains.

[4nxi3ty]

Honestly, with Anxiety coming in at the last minute with his crap excuse to vote me off despite being cool with a Majiffy lynch is super scummy,

especially with his backing me the entire Day 1 and then trying to use things I said Day 1 as his excuse to now vote me with a PoE that Majiffy couldn't be a wolf due to his interaction with Aldus.

It's not just that I am cool with a majiffy lynch, it's that I believe I have succesfully narrowed down the wolf to be between you and majiffy. And I am leaning towards you being wolf based on my re-read of ald.

The bolded doesn't make sense. What is scummy about re-evaluating someone's posts?

[4nxi3ty]

your change in certainty about me being wolf as soon as you are placed at L-1 is a bit scummy

[ProHawk]

It's a bit too convenient. The scummy part is trying to lynch me so you won't have to worry about me later.

Anyone here accusing me of being a wolf is literally avoiding the fact that I would have had to be a literal moron to murder my partner day 1 in the way that I did. Majiffy kinda addressed it in a weak sorta way, but you haven't touched the surface.

P-EDIT: Well my second choice HD isn't anywhere near being lynched, and we have less than 24 hours remaining... so? A no-lynch wouldn't be the end of the world, but if the wolf decided to kill town after the no-lynch, then we would be forced to lynch Rob and it would give the wolf the power over a town-loss or mafia-victory. I would rather try the odds if someone (Namely Majiffy, or HD) would grant me that. Honestly, with my riff with Majiffy the whole day... and HD already expressing interest in my death it's probably not feasible, but its worth a shot.

[4nxi3ty]

Anyone here accusing me of being a wolf is literally avoiding the fact that I would have had to be a literal moron to murder my partner day 1 in the way that I did. Majiffy kinda addressed it in a weak sorta way, but you haven't touched the surface.

...except alds modvote was pretty bad and you were almost lynched so hard bussing after that happen is more than reasonable.

[ProHawk]

It was so bad that I was one of the only people to CARE? Right...

[ProHawk]

If it was so bad, then why didn't you vote him for it?

[ProHawk]

And how do you explain my return to his wagon AFTER my wagon dissipated?

[4nxi3ty]

It's a bit too convenient. The scummy part is trying to lynch me so you won't have to worry about me later.

...except when I voted you, you had changed your mind about me being wolf and majiffy started calling me mafia so the logic doesn't quite add up.

[ProHawk]

...except you realized that I started going off about Majiffy being Mafia which put you right back into PoE with HD.

[4nxi3ty]

If it was so bad, then why didn't you vote him for it?

cause I didn't quite see it at the time, but it was still considered bad--several people callled him on it.

And how do you explain my return to his wagon AFTER my wagon dissipated?

scum bus when the feel it is needed like knowing a wagon could reform on either you or ald at anytime.

...except you realized that I started going off about Majiffy being Mafia which put you right back into PoE with HD.

uhh why would I realize that, you never mentioned me being possible wolf again.

in fact:

because no one wants to help me lynch my remaining wolf read of HD.

Also, if you look at HD's posts it is painfully obvious he is coasting. If he is town, he doesn't care which makes me lean more scum-than town.

I have every intention of pursuing a wolf-lynch, I have no intention of pursuing a no-lynch and you're the best we got at the moment in that category. If HD builds a wagon, I am all over that noise.

[ProHawk]

Don't see a wagon on HD. Didn't realize a no-lynch actually hurt Mafia more than hurt town at that point. Anything else?

[ProHawk]

That's fine, if my flip is what it takes to see how idiotic of a case of me being a wolf is, I guess that's what its gonna take.

[Majiffy]

postingfrom a friends phone probably won't be back before deadline but maybe. Ph lynch plz

[Human Destroyer]

VOTE: ProHawk