/Invitational 13: The battle of Yarmouk. Decisive victory!

[mykonian]

votecount

katsuki (2): Fishythefish, katsuki

not voting (4): Kublai Kahn, Rhinox, deathrowkitty, mith

[DeathRowKitty]

Katsuki, do you believe that your lynch right now would be more beneficial to the town than that of anyone other specific person? If you had to choose 2 remaining players as a scum pair, which 2 would they be?

[Rhinox]

Rhinox, I'd like your thoughts on DRK's posting at the end of day 3.

What posting at the end of day 3? DRK didn't really post at all up to a week before deadline. Do you mean specifically the post after the hammer?

As for my thoughts on the lack of posting, well easter was in there, and the rest of us barely produced a page and a half of content during that time, so I don't know if DRK's absense says much if anything at all about her alignment. She spoke out against lynching chamber earlier, but then didn't do anything to prevent the lynch from happening. Thats about the worst offense I can find regarding DRK's posting leading up to the end of the day.

I would've been far more manipulative this game if I were scum.

You mean like, self-voting when it looks like people are going to lynch you?

[Katsuki]

Katsuki, do you believe that your lynch right now would be more beneficial to the town than that of anyone other specific person? If you had to choose 2 remaining players as a scum pair, which 2 would they be?

I honestly have no idea. I had Fishy and Rhino as town reads yesterday, and a weak one on Chamber. I'd expect everyone in this game to have very strong scum games though so they'd probably look like town anyways.
I had a very strong gut scum read on mith through days 1 and 2, but I'm not sure anymore given my inability to get any solid reads this game. Doesn't help that I haven't played with half of you before.

I would've been far more manipulative this game if I were scum.

You mean like, self-voting when it looks like people are going to lynch you?

I would've made up reads game-days ago to make myself appear like an engaged townie rather than a lurker. It's incredibly easy to produce reads as scum to suit your own purposes. You should know, you even shared a QT with me and saw this first-hand.

[Katsuki]

Katsuki, do you believe that your lynch right now would be more beneficial to the town than that of anyone other specific person?

Forgot to answer this.

Obviously my lynch is not desirable, but I don't see it NOT happening. There is too much liability with my slot and it's reached a point where my presence will only further detract from actual scumhunting.

I've already been unable to get any solid reads this game so not only is my slot distracting, but I myself probably will be a liability going down this game given my lack of confidence.

[mith]

Fishy's turn.

[DeathRowKitty]

Obviously my lynch is not desirable, but I don't see it NOT happening. There is too much liability with my slot and it's reached a point where my presence will only further detract from actual scumhunting.

I've already been unable to get any solid reads this game so not only is my slot distracting, but I myself probably will be a liability going down this game given my lack of confidence.

Is there such a thing in a nightless game where lynches are responsible for every kill? You can't be left alive at night to be mislynched later if you're town.



Regarding my lack of posting towards the end of yesterday, it was a few days of poor time management followed by a couple of days of mostly not being on MS for no good reason. Take that as you will.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy's turn.

Nothing struck me at the time. Looking now, his last content post (324) makes sense through the distorting lens of KK-is-scum. 341 promises content. 361 (post-hammer) has the line "I don't think anything I would have done would have made anything turn out differently today anyway". This jars when 4 posts earlier the votecount was 2-2-2. Makes it feel a little like DRK knows we've mislynched and is excusing his part in it. But I'm stretching, I don't really see anything of interest in DRK's late day 3. In the sort of day we were having, the lurk makes sense from town or scum.

Need to think about this self-vote. In my experience, it's an annoyingly good towntell, but these aren't quite the rather emotional circumstances you normally have.

[mith]

"Makes it feel a little like DRK knows we've mislynched and is excusing his part in it." - This, exactly.

Coupled with Rhinox's stance on Katsuki and DRK yesterday vs. how he has come out today (#367 in particular), and that possible pairing is giving me pause.

I think Katsuki/DRK is probably still the most likely case, but I'd rather lynch DRK at this point.

VOTE: DeathRowKitty

[Kublai Khan]

hmmm...

[DeathRowKitty]

"Makes it feel a little like DRK knows we've mislynched and is excusing his part in it." - This, exactly.

Huh. Looking back at it, it does kind of read like that. I wrote that really soon after waking up and feeling kind of down on myself. I probably shouldn't do that.

[Fishythefish]

"Makes it feel a little like DRK knows we've mislynched and is excusing his part in it." - This, exactly.

Coupled with Rhinox's stance on Katsuki and DRK yesterday vs. how he has come out today (#367 in particular), and that possible pairing is giving me pause.

I think Katsuki/DRK is probably still the most likely case, but I'd rather lynch DRK at this point.

VOTE: DeathRowKitty

I think there's a good town explanation. Also feels a little like DRK know we've had a crap day of inactivity and is excusing his part in it.

The lynch here is between Kat and DRK. Individually, DRK reads as town to me and Kat a bit scummy. Looking at their potential partners:

- I see no reason they can't be scum with each other.
- DRK isn't scum with me, KK, or (given recent posting) probably mith.
- Kat isn't scum with me, and unlikely with mith (because of their interactions).
That leaves DRK/Kat, either/Rhinox, Kat/KK. I agree that from today, Rhinox/DRK looks more likely out of Rhinox pairings. Kat/KK makes some sense as well - they've hardly interacted all game.

That makes me happy with Kat. I think he's the scummier of the potential lynches, and they both have about the same number of potential partners.

I don't think the self-vote is a good towntell here. Particularly if DRK is also scum, scumKat might be rather desperate, and so an unusual move that

could

be read as town by a key player or two would make sense.

[Katsuki]

I highly dislike this above post. It's the type of post I'd make if I were scum.

[Fishythefish]

Anything in particular?

[Rhinox]

Katsuki you haven't expressed a single town read this entire game. Is there anyone you feel is town?

[mith]

Fishy: Pairing-wise, I think we're mostly on the same page. From my point of view, I have to consider the possibility that you are scum with one of them, and Fishy/DRK makes more sense than Fishy/Katsuki; that's a pretty minor difference though, as I can't see why you would have switched off of me day 1 in either case unless you were really confident in me going down day 2 (and your day 2 play doesn't fit this picture). The bigger difference here is that, to me, Rhinox/DRK explicitly fits what I've seen today, whereas other pairings are more "nothing is strongly ruling this out"... KK/Katsuki, for example, would explain KK's day 2 vote to some degree but would not explain their play today (other than the "we have given up on winning this game" possibility).

Our main difference though is your DRK town read. You mentioned earlier in the game that his posting felt genuine/un-edited... to me it reads disconnected and disinterested in catching the scums. See also: #312 + #361 ("imma stay off this townie-wagon and act dumb about it"/mea culpa for not doing something to stop it), a variety of excuses and fence-sitting (end of #324, #361 again, with the odd "teach me about this game" comment, #381/#385 today)... apart from his doggedly sticking to KK through days 2 and 3, and lightly defending me (when it looked like I was going to be lynched anyway day 1) and chamber (when it looked like he was going to be lynched anyway day 3), I'm not seeing much in the way of solid reads or analysis.

[Katsuki]

Katsuki you haven't expressed a single town read this entire game. Is there anyone you feel is town?

I was trying to identify town reads last game day, and ended with you and fishy, with chamber as a weak townread.

At this point though, it's fallen towards neutral.

[Katsuki]

I mind as well add in that sadly enough, mith is looking more town to me than previously.

[Katsuki]

Anything in particular?

Almost the entire post.

It's more so the approach, and the intent behind that post.

[Kublai Khan]

Vote: Katsuki

[Fishythefish]

@mith: I'll have a thorough iso of DRK when I get a chance, and try to pick out what I feel is town. His posting seeming genuine/un-edited is a good summary. It's not an immensely strong townread, though.

I agree DRK/Rhinox fits today OK, but Rhinox-scum is looking to win this game solo, so I expect DRK/Rhinox and Kat/Rhinox to be mostly indistinguishable. But actually, I don't put any weight on either - in both cases Rhinox saved this town from near certain death. Look at this votecount from day 2:

Vahan's plan was to put pressure on the muslim wings, while threatening to attack the muslims center. This would make that the center could not help out it's wings, while if the wings were to be pushed back, the center of the muslim line would get isolated.

votecount

Kublai Kahn (2): chamber, deathrowkitty
mith (2): KittyMo, katsuki
chamber (1): mith
KittyMo (1): Fishythefish

not voting (2): Kublai Kahn, Rhinox

If Rhinox/DRK or Rhinox/Kat, we have exactly one scumvote, and zero support for that wagon. Given Rhinox's posting, noone would question a vote for mith. If Rhinox doesn't vote Kitty, we don't lynch her, and we don't win.

No. Rhinox isn't scum with DRK or Kat. You are also a poor scumpartner for either; it doesn't explain your bus on Day 2, and your interactions with them don't look like scum/scum. DRK/KK is fairly unlikely, but not impossible - it could be that the tunnelling argument is entirely a scum conspiracy. That leaves DRK/Kat and Kat/KK, or the megabus options. Looking at those:

- Rhinox/mith makes Rhinox's day 2 only a little more sensible. Now his Kitty-hop makes perfect sense; he was backed into a corner by his positions, and had to vote a scumpartner. But why on earth is he backed into that corner? It seems very unlikely that Rhinox-scum would list his buddies as the top scumbags when there are 3 scum left out of 8.
- Rhinox/KK makes a little more sense. It's still weird Rhinox plumped for Kitty over mith, but a bit less so; he might have been worried that KK was going down either way.
- KK/mith actually looks quite good. It would explain the main reason mith's vote doesn't look very bussy, which is this post just after Rhinox's vote had put Kitty back on the menu:

I would vote for Kitty over KK at this point. Very happy with my vote on Katsuki though, after rereading the last couple pages.

This positioning is weird from mithscum - but not if KK is also scum. That just leaves KK as bussy. And with Rhinox and I on the Kitty wagon, and with me making my "follow me or die" post, it's not implausible that KK decided to bus.

So. In order of likelihood, I'm thinking something like:
Kat/DRK >> Kat/KK , mith/KK, DRK/KK >> Rhinox/KK

Interestingly, that means that today's lynch is either Kat or DRK, and if that's a townflip tomorrow's is KK; he has a surprising wealth of potential scumbuddies. I need to stare harder at (Kat or DRK)/mith, which I've only done sketchily so far; whichever of Kat and DRK is a better buddy for mith should be today's lynch.

UNVOTE:

@KK: why Kat?

Kat's pressing town buttons recently, which is annoying. First he analysed his own scumplay, which in my experience is much more common from town, and now he's walking back his townreads when he needs all the help he can get.

[Katsuki]

Long day tomorrow have some things I want to re-read will comment tomorrow if not too tired.

[DeathRowKitty]

Getting my mind back into this game a bit...

I kind of figured at first that Katsuki's self-vote was a town tell because self-votes in general are and his self-vote isn't particularly unique among self-votes. I think I just worded that terribly. Close enough. The thing that gives me pause about it...or at least one of the things because I don't think it's possible for self-votes not to make one question everything he or she knows about the, universe, and everything, is the fact that this game is nightless. Every kill is controlled by the majority. While self-votes are most commonly a frustrated town play, Katsuki's feels much more detached and logical - his initial reasoning was basically "Well, I fucked up and I look bad for it *seppuku*". Except this is nightless, where people that die are in a one-to-one correlation with people the majority wants dead. There's no such thing as surviving one day, only to be set up to die at a more favorable time. For a self-vote that doesn't at all feel frustrated, something seems off about the reasoning. I also kind of find it strange that Katsuki is still self-voting, but I don't know what conclusion to draw from it without hearing from Katsuki about it.

That all having been said, I'm not actually sold on Katsuki's self-vote being scummy just because it would be one heck of a gamble coming immediately after a fishy post saying he wasn't moving his vote from Kat and a Rhinox vote saying he was okay with a Katsuki lynch. No one spontaneously and magically came out of nowhere to defend Katsuki's self-vote as being a town tell - in the situation in which Katsuki was scum, it would probably be natural for his partner to post a light defense of him, just because of how controversial self-votes are. It would also potentially be risky if Katsuki did get lynched and it's possible that Katsuki+partner were hoping that someone else would post the light defense for them, but *speculation*. Then again, mith's longish build-up into his vote on me could be that light defense in another form. Yeah, at this point I'm just rambling to myself more than anything...

Also while I'm posting disconnected thoughts as I remember them, Katsuki having reads came out of nowhere. Katsuki, came you give some sort of a timeline on when/where/why your reads came to be.


ALSO KK's avatar and Rhinox's avatar are really hard to tell apart at first glance and I'm really bad at noticing details fuck fuck :<

Also I kind of find it hilarious that KK's posts and post timing support the conclusion of him being scum with me. Actually I don't find it hilarious and I don't know why I said I do because I wasn't laughing. Ironic, maybe?

Also also also

I use the word also too much

I was like wtf why are people suddenly looking at everything in terms of pairings and now that I thought about Katsuki more it makes sense and I feel smart for it but vaguely dumb for not understanding until now.

I meant to say something else I think .-. On second thought I think it was a comment on KK's posts on this matter, mainly that they don't say much of anything.

/fin 4 now

[DeathRowKitty]

Wait no I also meant to address 2 things mith said at some point:

1. He commented on my not knowing why chamber was being voted:
-I kind of guessed that he was being voted for his position counter to the KittyMo wagon, but literally no one actually explained why chamber had suddenly risen to the top of their scum lists and I was the primary person behind the wagon chamber was on so what did he do that I didn't?

2. He pointed out my strange question/comment/thing to Katsuki asking him to explain my worldview or...some shit like that (I don't actually remember exactly what I said at this point..)
-That was slightly asked/said/whatever out of frustration and partly because I have a lot of IRC mafia experience that causes me to really like scumhunting through conversation and slightly strange reaction-y test-y comments and questions.

Okay, now I think that's all for the moment.

[Rhinox]

Fishy, why do you feel DRK is town?

Because #397 is entirely too many wishy washy words regarding katsuki and is the type of post I used to get nailed on all the time when scum.