/Invitational 13: The battle of Yarmouk. Decisive victory!

[DeathRowKitty]

Well excuse me for being wishy-washy on Katsuki right now. Clearly your read on Katsuki is rock-solid unbreakable confidence.

BEE TEE DUBS, after you said that, your posts have had a distinct focus of "hey Katsuki, you're scum". Why you ain't voting him?

[Rhinox]

Firstly, my objection to your post has less to do with you not expressing a solid read on katsuki, but in the fact that you took 361 words to say "I'm not sure if katsuki's self vote is scummy it could go either way."


Secondly, first you say I'm wishy-washy then you say my posts have a distinct focus of "hey Katsuki, you're scum". So which is it, am I wishy-washy or do I have a distinct focus? Aside from that, the post you cherry picked out of context isn't wishy-washy at all. I explained why I felt kats was town in the past (because up until that point I had been intentionally vague about it), why I didn't feel that way any more, and ended with saying I'd be fine lynching kats. What's wishy washy about that? Adjusting a viewpoint isn't being wishy-washy.

I haven't voted kats because I wasn't done exploring all my options. And I think I'd rather lynch you than kats.

[mith]

Fishy: This is a minor point, but between the vote count you posted and Rhinox's vote, I voted for Katsuki and KK voted for DRK.

I do largely agree that Rhinox voting for Kitty Mo at that point looks solidly town, but I don't agree that it's an absolute no-go even in the Rhinox/DRK or Rhinox/Katsuki cases. The latter is actually the easier case to make, because I've already made it (re: KK/Katsuki): Rhinox voting for me at that point would have put all three scum on my wagon. But for Rhinox/DRK, I could certainly see him thinking "I'm going to distance some for now, and then switch to a mith lynch as we approach deadline"... only he got stuck by your post + KK and I both jumping on.

(I also disagree that those two options are "mostly indistinguishable" from his behavior today; in fact, this argument seems inconsistent to me with the previous day 2 argument - you seem to be saying that Rhinox-scum would have ignored low-risk distancing to go for the "easy" town lynch and chance at a flawless win the next day, but now would be ignoring the possibility of his partner surviving to set up for the solo win. You gave a scenario for Rhinox/partner surviving yourself: wrong lynch today + KK lynch tomorrow. The alarm bells are ringing so loudly for Rhinox/DRK because of the change in Rhinox's stance from yesterday - "don't see me voting outside of chamber, DRK, or mith today", "my next choice would be DRK" - to today; I think there's a relatively good chance that Rhinox saw your post + my voting yesterday and thought "easy-mode Katsuki lynch, and then I can get mith or KK lynched tomorrow with Fishy's DRK-town read", whereas if it were Rhinox/Katsuki I think he would have jumped on the chance I gave him to go after DRK.)

Happy with my vote - DRK's recent posting is more of the same (re: my #390).

[DeathRowKitty]

If not for the post you just made, I would not have known that you thought Katsuki was scum as of post #367. And that's despite you saying you would be okay with a Kats lynch in that very post. It was a wishy-washy post. Your posts since then haven't been wishy-washy.


Is 361 words too many to post on a topic without giving an opinion? I mean I get that my post wasn't particularly useful (though I would like to hope/believe that *something* can be taken out of the line of thought that went into it), but you're implying that you wouldn't have found that post scummy if I'd written fewer words on it. That just seems ridiculous to me.

[mykonian]

votecount

katsuki (2): katsuki, Kublai Kahn
deathrowkitty (1): mith

not voting (3): Rhinox, deathrowkitty, Fishythefish

[Rhinox]

If not for the post you just made, I would not have known that you thought Katsuki was scum as of post #367. And that's despite you saying you would be okay with a Kats lynch in that very post. It was a wishy-washy post. Your posts since then haven't been wishy-washy.

Well chamber flipping town means I need to reevaluate some things, though I haven't done so with the same dilegence fishy and mith have regarding analyzing pairings. Fishy has made a pretty decent argument for mith-town, and I would add to that that you+mith seems less likely a pairing today do to interactions (though I haven't ruled out mith bussing), so I have to be open to other options. I don't think fishy is scum at all and you+KK would be a pretty poor likelihood for a pairing as well do to earlier interactions. That leaves kats. I had already started having kats-scum feelings myself, and fishy made a pretty compelling case on his own. Fishy also feels/felt you are town, and I have to take that into consideration. While I'm not just going to sheep fishy at the expense of my own reads, I don't see myself see myself supporting a wagon that he hasn't endorsed.

While fishy has come up with logical reasonings for most of his town reads, for the most part he's only ever said its been more of a feeling that you are town, which has been frustrating me a little and is why I want to hear more from fishy about what gives him that feeling.

so all that has culminated in the inner conflict I'm stuggling with today - you're my strongest scum read, but mith (also kinda a scumread of mine) wants you lynched, and fishy (my strongest townread) does/did not -vs- kats, initially a townread of mine that has through play become scummier, and is/was fishy's preferred lynch choice, as well as KK, another stronger town read of mine.

(Mith, maybe this post also addesses the concerns you raised in #402, in addition to the fact that I haven't actually voted kats yet, and in #401 said that I would prefer a DRK lynch to kats, before you even made the points in #402.)

So if I have been unclear, in my obviously biased opinion, it has been through omision rather than being wishy-washy, and I would have explained my positions more clearly earlier on had they ever been questioned.

For example, you didn't have anything at all to say about my position on kats until I accused you of being wishy-washy. If you didn't know where I stood on kats and thought I was being wishywashy, why didn't you question me or call me out before? The explanation I can rationalize is that you wouldn't question me if you are scum and it was looking like I was going to vote for town (or at least not you), but once I made an accusation against you, you lashed out and deflected.


As for...

Is 361 words too many to post on a topic without giving an opinion? I mean I get that my post wasn't particularly useful (though I would like to hope/believe that *something* can be taken out of the line of thought that went into it), but you're implying that you wouldn't have found that post scummy if I'd written fewer words on it. That just seems ridiculous to me.

I would say yes, I have found there is a positive correlation between the number of words used to say nothing, and the odds of the player being scum. The statement you parenthesized is pretty much the reason why, I suspect.

[DeathRowKitty]

you didn't have anything at all to say about my position on kats until I accused you of being wishy-washy. If you didn't know where I stood on kats and thought I was being wishywashy, why didn't you question me or call me out before?

I only pointed it out because I perceived you to be doing what it looked like you were accusing me of doing. Also, I thought you were voting Katsuki until I looked back to find that post.

I would say yes, I have found there is a positive correlation between the number of words used to say nothing, and the odds of the player being scum. The statement you parenthesized is pretty much the reason why, I suspect.

Fair.

[DeathRowKitty]

Um...I'm really not sure how that ended up in nested quotes.

[Fishythefish]

AAAAHHH. fn+f5 turns the brightness up, but ctrl+f5 just refreshes and loses your post. TWICE. I'm an idiot. Well, it's getting faster to type each time at least.

Fishy, why do you feel DRK is town?

Because #397 is entirely too many wishy washy words regarding katsuki and is the type of post I used to get nailed on all the time when scum.

So, I can't help much with my townread on DRK beyond what I've already said. It feels like we are getting his unedited thoughts, and that seems townish. Quotes don't help much, because it's more than one post, but here's a good example:

Okay, so....

Vote: Kublai Khan

I still don't like him. His posts, that is. Having seen his line of questioning on mith reach its climax at this, I don't even know what the point of his questioning was supposed to be. His final post in his line of questioning looks like a first post I would expect someone to make on a topic and his entire line of questioning just looks like a way to make it look like he was trying to appear useful without doing anything.



Interestingly enough, KittyMo's 62 was something I didn't like on reread (without having read your post first). Non-forum experience tells me that I'm terrible at reading her, but etc


Chamber seemed more town on reread, fishy still seems town, no idea on katsuki, rhinox slightly town, didn't really change mith.

And that is DRK's mind in 15 seconds.

I really, really believe that last line. It feels like DRK has sat down, gathered his thoughts, and typed this up, with the whole process taking no more than a few minutes. And from my experience, that precisely describes me as town on a good day, when I'm on top of the game and I'm not making a big, thinky post. And it never, ever describes me as scum. I

think

this goes for people in general - as scum, remembering your old fake opinions and thinking up new ones takes too much effort to make this type of post easily.

On actual content, I don't see anything that actually makes me think DRK is town, but not much that makes me think he's scum either. Looking at this from mith:

Our main difference though is your DRK town read. You mentioned earlier in the game that his posting felt genuine/un-edited... to me it reads disconnected and disinterested in catching the scums. See also: #312 + #361 ("imma stay off this townie-wagon and act dumb about it"/mea culpa for not doing something to stop it), a variety of excuses and fence-sitting (end of #324, #361 again, with the odd "teach me about this game" comment, #381/#385 today)... apart from his doggedly sticking to KK through days 2 and 3, and lightly defending me (when it looked like I was going to be lynched anyway day 1) and chamber (when it looked like he was going to be lynched anyway day 3), I'm not seeing much in the way of solid reads or analysis.

Disconnected - a bit, not much of a scumtell AFAIC. Disinterested in catching scum? I don't see that - his posting on panzer day 1 makes sense, and so does his posting on KK day 2/3, even if it's rather tunnelly. On 312, I see how that could be "I need to say something about this wagon, but can't think what, so here's some fluff". 361 we've talked about; I see the scum thinking behind it, but also just see the town-who's-been-lurking explanation. End of 324 is fence sitting, but it's entirely admitted - DRK says "My other reads are kind of blurred out and I'd rather not explain them because...because.". I don't think fence sitting and blatantly owning up to it is particularly scummy. "Teach me about this game" comment is weird, but I don't see the scum motivation. 381/385 is excusing lurking, and then agreeing with your assessment of 361. I don't see why that's unlikely at all from town.

So. I don't see any of that as unlikely from DRKtown, and don't think there's an egregious lack of scumhunting.

---

Fishy: This is a minor point, but between the vote count you posted and Rhinox's vote, I voted for Katsuki and KK voted for DRK.

I do largely agree that Rhinox voting for Kitty Mo at that point looks solidly town, but I don't agree that it's an absolute no-go even in the Rhinox/DRK or Rhinox/Katsuki cases. The latter is actually the easier case to make, because I've already made it (re: KK/Katsuki): Rhinox voting for me at that point would have put all three scum on my wagon. But for Rhinox/DRK, I could certainly see him thinking "I'm going to distance some for now, and then switch to a mith lynch as we approach deadline"... only he got stuck by your post + KK and I both jumping on.

(I also disagree that those two options are "mostly indistinguishable" from his behavior today; in fact, this argument seems inconsistent to me with the previous day 2 argument - you seem to be saying that Rhinox-scum would have ignored low-risk distancing to go for the "easy" town lynch and chance at a flawless win the next day, but now would be ignoring the possibility of his partner surviving to set up for the solo win. You gave a scenario for Rhinox/partner surviving yourself: wrong lynch today + KK lynch tomorrow. The alarm bells are ringing so loudly for Rhinox/DRK because of the change in Rhinox's stance from yesterday - "don't see me voting outside of chamber, DRK, or mith today", "my next choice would be DRK" - to today; I think there's a relatively good chance that Rhinox saw your post + my voting yesterday and thought "easy-mode Katsuki lynch, and then I can get mith or KK lynched tomorrow with Fishy's DRK-town read", whereas if it were Rhinox/Katsuki I think he would have jumped on the chance I gave him to go after DRK.)

Happy with my vote - DRK's recent posting is more of the same (re: my #390).

Huh. Surprised I missed those votes. They don't make too much difference though - Rhinox's vote was still a big deal.

I think there's a big difference between day 2 and later. On day 2, the scum were in an awesome place. At 5-3, with the town all over the place, it didn't look evenly slightly like they were going to have to bus. I guess it's possible he'd think the wagon was no real danger to Kitty, but I really think Rhinoxscum wouldn't be trying to pick up distancing points, he would be trying to win - the scumlynch seriously damaged the scum. Maybe I'm being a bit arrogant, but I also tend to think Rhinoxscum wouldn't have taken my Kitty vote all that lightly.

On the other hand, now (and yesterday) Rhinox is hugely town, and his partner (if DRK or Kat) looks unlikely to make the endgame. Sure, they might both survive, but much the more likely scum win is Rhinox; why endanger himself by flipping on DRK? I guess the answer is "he was greedy and wanted a faster win", but it would be rather clumsy.

I suppose the "not all scum on one wagon" makes Kat/Rhinox a little more likely. Can't say it's the kind of thing I think scum actually think about very much. And yeah, today would be very unlikely if it was Kat/Rhinox.

---

VOTE: Kat

In the worst case, I want this game going down to a Rhinox/mith/fishy endgame (though I'm very hopeful we'll have won before that). So I'm worried about who Rhinox and mith could be scum with. I put much more weight on KK/mith and Kat/mith than any of the other pairs; given today, mith/DRK would be weird, and as I've said I really don't think Rhinox is scum. So I don't want Kat or KK in the last 4 players.

[Katsuki]

In lab want thoughts out before anything happens

unvote

[Katsuki]

It is very late. I will post tomorrow.

[mith]

Rhinox: Re: parenthetical - Er, no, not really, it doesn't make me feel better that you started back after DRK (#399) only after my DRK vote and Fishy's unvote (#395).

Fishy: "the scumlynch seriously damaged the scum"... yet "now (and yesterday) Rhinox is hugely town". (I also have a hard time viewing a move as "clumsy" when, if that is in fact the pairing, he has you making WIFOM "why would he do this?" arguments for him.) Anyway, as I said in my previous post, I agree with you that his day 2 vote looks strongly town, I just don't agree that scum-Rhinox would absolutely have avoided that vote if partnered with DRK, and in particular don't think that he would have been worried about the damage the potential scumlynch would do to his chances (since the chances of a KittyMo lynch at that point would have still seemed quite low to him, and since the town-cred gained for him personally in the event that the lynch did happen does quite a lot to offset the risk).

[Rhinox]

Rhinox: Re: parenthetical - Er, no, not really, it doesn't make me feel better that you started back after DRK (#399) only after my DRK vote and Fishy's unvote (#395).

Well frankly I don't really care if it makes you feel better I just noticed while I was addressing DRK that my thoughts might be relevant to your position.

Your position relies on the fact that I as scum would have motivation to protect DRK as my scum partner today, and based on fishy's comments about me, that just isn't the case, as it seems like if I'm scum I'm nearly guaranteed to make it to endgame and probably solo win so long as I just don't fuck up. So why not just bus DRK and further cement that?

Not to mention that I've been influenced by fishy and you taking a scum-pair approach to scumhunting lately, and it should be clear from my positions even if I haven't come out and said it before now, that kats really makes the most sense as a scum partner for DRK, while any other DRK-scumpartners require certain assumptions to be met (i.e. you if you're bussing today, KK if the earlier fighting between them was all for show, fishy if he's having an awesome scum game). Kats on the other hand could be scumpartners with you, KK, or DRK without any underlying assumptions in that way. You would have to be being intentionally obtuse to not see how me considering a kats lynch makes sense for me as town.

I also can pull the meta trump card, in that anybody who's seen me play as scum knows that I would have likely been lynched by now, as I'm just that horrible at being scum with scum partners. It'd be much better for my personally scum game to rid myself of scum partners as quickly as possible! (this last point is only meant to be taken half-seriously )

[Katsuki]

Eh.

So I never ended doing that readthrough I wanted.

But KK is being incredibly lazy today and I really can't see why he would be if he were town.

Going by what I'm seeing today I'm happy to put my faith in rhinox and mith, and go from there. Which means, so long as we lynch DRK/KK/fishy this should be game.

Not liking fishy as much today because his progression of reads especially on me don't make nearly as much sense as rhino. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he were playing a hell of a scumgame.
DRK's positions today are terrible as shit though and I really want to see him gone before me. I'm pretty sure we have this game wrapped up if DRK is scum, easily with KK or fishy.

Game is pretty easy. So long as we can get two solid townreads, there should be no reason for us to lose this. I think today shows rhino and mith clearly as town, meaning lynching from {DRK, KK, fishy, (Katsuki)} pretty much guarantees a win.

Vote: DRK

[Fishythefish]

Not liking fishy as much today because his progression of reads especially on me don't make nearly as much sense as rhino. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he were playing a hell of a scumgame.

I think a fair summary of my play today is "Suddenly started almost exclusively pair-hunting. Changed reads, and went back on firm looking promises like 'I'm never moving my vote off Kat'. Chained lynches."

I'm not an idiot. I know that this slightly odd play has the potential to undermine townreads on me. At the end of the day, it's made only a very small difference to who I want lynched - I'm still voting you. As scum, what on earth would my motivation for my play today be?

For an explanation of why my reads have changed, I've been thinking about pairs - because it's late enough in the game that we can think about them all and pretty much plan what we should be doing for the rest of the game. My reads on people in isolation really haven't changed much at all, but who can be scum with who has changed my mind on what we should be doing (and in particular, KK's surprising abundance of potential scumpartners has been making me think I don't want him in endgame).

@mith: I don't think we've got much more to say to each other. Our main disagreement seems to be about how much better off the scum (even scumRhinox) would be if they'd lynched town Day 2. And also, for obvious reasons, about whether mith/X scum pairings are more important than Rhinox/X pairings.

[DeathRowKitty]

DRK's positions today are terrible as shit though and I really want to see him gone before me. I'm pretty sure we have this game wrapped up if DRK is scum, easily with KK or fishy.

Positions? What positions? Unless you count "I don't know if Katsuki is scum" as a position, I don't think I've even taken a position today. Are you actually reading along with the game? Because I'm pretty sure I've directed like 3 questions to you to try to figure out what the hell you were playing at with your self-vote. But apparently you have no interest in making sense of your play and would prefer to just suddenly vote your counterwagon with reasoning that doesn't exist? And how did your position even manage to go from "I'm a distraction and I have no idea what's going on in this game, we should lynch me..." to "we should lynch x, y, and z, gg we win"?

Vote: Katsuki

[Katsuki]

And how did your position even manage to go from "I'm a distraction and I have no idea what's going on in this game, we should lynch me..." to "we should lynch x, y, and z, gg we win"?

It's called D4 happened honey.

But apparently I can't get reads over the course of a day.

[Katsuki]

Game starting I'll answer your post in a sec fishy. But long story short I don't get why you'd be pair-hunting when you can get scum first and go from there. Especially when good scum won't leave links like that.

I remember the first game I ever read on this site, people were pairhunting in LYLO, and ended up lynching wrong, and scum ended up being a pair that no one suspected even in 7p. (think it was a zor large normal)

[Fishythefish]

I'm more confident in my pair-hunting than my individual reads here. It's not so much looking for links as for pairs who still make sense. There are a lot of pairs that look very unlikely here, and my individual reads aren't that strong, at least at the scummy end of the scale.

[Rhinox]

413 reads as phony, and seems like kats is completely pandering to me and mith. The whole post seems out of touch even - nobody here is going to be following a "guaranteed win" lynch chain that includes fishy. And the game isn't on easy mode if we just have 2 sure town and lynch from the other 4. There's 2 scum left in a nightless and tomorrow is lylo if we don't hit scum today. The only way kats' "easy mode" reasoning makes sense is if kats knows DRK is going to flip scum. Maybe I'm reading too much into it. My first reaction to 413 was that it sounded a lot like a scum who knows they're about to be lynched, last ditch distancing and appeals.


And what ever happened to KK? I'd like to hear something else from him before I hammer.

[mith]

At this point, 413 is just making Katsuki look consistently OMGUSy to me. I've been constantly mentioned as a scumread by him until today, and now he's happy to put his faith in me because I'm voting for someone else? Rhinox was town yesterday, then falling toward neutral (as of #391, after Rhinox has stated he's ok with a Katsuki lynch, and some arguing between the two of them), then town again #401's "rather lynch you than kats". Fishy was town yesterday, but now in the lynch trio, along with KK (to be fair, #373 did mention KK with some very lazy reasoning).

Echoing the "where's KK?" sentiment; I have been too busy arguing with Fishy, and didn't notice that KK has posted all of three words today.

[Kublai Khan]

/Bookmarking to remind myself to read/comment tonight after work

[Katsuki]

Then you guys can lynch me and spare me having to waste any more time on this game if when ever I try to make an actual post or put some effort into this game comes across as phony.

[Katsuki]

Oh I could just self hammer right now but I'm pretty sure no one would ever want to play with me again if I did it so someone else just do so I'm done.

[Kublai Khan]

Okay. Off work. Reading.