/Invitational 13: The battle of Yarmouk. Decisive victory!

[DeathRowKitty]

Looks like I didn't miss much.

I haven't though too much about pairings from the remaining players (aside from the KK/Rhinox that seems to spring up every once in a while). To be honest, I've kind of gotten tunnel-visioned a lot this game. As of right now, my ordering for individual scumminess would be something like KK > Rhinox >~ mith > Fishy (>~ meaning approximately equal to but probably greater than). I really think a KK lynch is the best choice right now. KK being scum probably puts Rhinox a decent amount ahead of mith on my list. I'm going to reread the game over the course of today (hooray for really short game?) and try to focus largely on pairings.

[mith]

Checking in. Very busy at work, and limited computer time outside of work, so haven't had an opportunity to read and think on this game yet. Maybe tonight, if I'm feeling ok.

[Fishythefish]

Acknowledging prod, with apologies. Content post within 6 hours.

[Fishythefish]

Acknowledging prod, with apologies. Content post within 6 hours.

Sorry, taking longer than I expected - ended up doing a lot of rereading. Content post really, actually, tomorrow.

[Rhinox]

Sorry, taking longer than I expected

same here but I should have time today

[Fishythefish]

Right, time for a big post which says exactly where I am on everything. I doubt it will contain much new, but I need to put everything together and make my mind up, and I may as well do it out loud.

Individuals

Rhinox

Day 1
- His last post of D1 is interesting. Having hardly mentioned panzer (the day 1 townlynch) all day, he voiced support for the wagon when it was at L-1 without voting. Strikes me as a fairly unlikely scum move; why associate yourself with the town lynch?
Day 2
- Solid content at the beginning of the day.
- In 194, votes Kitty. Looking at this over and over, I really think Rhinox-scum would have only done it if he intended Kitty to get lynched, or at least didn't mind too much. I'd just said this:
"I'm tempted to move my vote because of the lack of company, but I don't think that's a good idea. The complete lack of interest in my wagon makes me think I'm actually more likely to be on to something."
Now, I was one of the more active players in the game, and I was also widely read as town. I had a townread on Rhinox, and clearly listened to him. I think Rhinox respects my play. I think scumRhinox would have seen a real danger in moving to Kitty; a renewed push from me was very predictable, and could easily lead to a lynch in the fragmented atmosphere of Day 2.

So, would scumRhinox mind too much about a Kitty lynch? For me, the answer is clear. If scum with KK or mith, the other two wagons with decent support, perhaps it wouldn't be too risky (particularly with mith, actually - from Rhinox's posting, a move to mith was easy but a move to KK was hard). If scum with DRK, it would be very unlikely indeed.

Day 4 - turnaround on DRK/Kat, which makes DRK/Rhinox more likely. His main stated reasons for this are my influence and pair hunting. Both make lots of sense to me.

I've shared lots of his opinions all game, and he's made a great deal of sense. His play makes much more sense as town than scum. Very townish indeed.

mith

Day 1 - mith's D1 was moderately scummy. It felt like he is arguing in order to win the argument, or to look town, not to scumhunt. I've felt this occasionally about his posting since, but most on D1.

An interesting event on D1 is mith's wagon. mith reached L-1 on D1; every other vote from almost the start was on confirmed town, with the significant wagon being on panzer. Now, mith sat at L-1 for a few day with a wagon of me, Rhinox, Kat and panzer. FMPOV, that wagon probably has no scum on it. Meanwhile, KK read mith as scum, but he never actually hammered or threatened to. This post is the weird one - what would KK-town be doing making a post like this about mith without mentioning his wagon?

@KK: do you remember what you thought of mith's wagon at this point?

Day 2 - mith starts off fighting with chamber, saying Kat is his number 2. When Rhinox had voted Kitty, he said
"I would vote for Kitty over KK at this point. Very happy with my vote on Katsuki though, after rereading the last couple pages."
Kitty and KK were both really possible lynches here. I don't really see what good this post does mith-scum unless KK is also scum; it's not going to garner many distancing points, and boxes him into bussing. Makes mith scum with DRK or Rhinox significantly less likely.

Then I make my "follow me or die" post, and KK votes Kitty. Then mith votes Kitty as well. By this stage, I'd say Kitty is in reasonably serious trouble; without flipping on his Kitty-over-KK statement mithscum is going to struggle to save Kitty; and even with flipping it's a longish shot that ties mith to Kitty. I can easily see mithscum thinking that bussing was the way to go.

Day 4 - argued for DRK/Rhinox being a real possibility, pushed DRK lynch quite hard. I see where he's coming from, though I disagree. Makes DRK/mith seem a bit less likely.

DRK

I've talked about DRK; my gut townread on him persists. OTOH, he's the best fit for scum with Kitty, seeing as everyone else voted for her in a not-massively-bussy way.

KK

I found his Day 1 and early Day 2 play rather hard to read; I thought he was wrong about a lot of things (particularly in his case against mith), but it sounded like he believed what he was saying.

I still don't think KK's vote on Kitty looks like bussing,

particularly

not without mith. It came directly after my post, when mith was still a very possible lynch KK could have credibly voted for. In the KK-mith scenario, this is much more likely.

Since Day 2, he's done nothing at all. He didn't seem to reevaluate the game in light of the Kitty flip. His DRK scumread disappeared. All in all, his play is weird, and I can't really convince myself of it coming from town or from scum.

Pairs

Based on the above:

Not scum together

DRK/Rhinox (Rhinox isn't scum, and as scum with DRK wouldn't play D2 like that)

Very unlikely scumpairs

mith/Rhinox (Rhinox isn't scum)
KK/Rhinox (Rhinox isn't scum)

Unlikely scumpair

mith/DRK (mith's days 2 and 4)

Plausible scumpair

KK/mith - makes the busses from KK and mith D2 sensible.

Needs more thought

DRK/KK - they had a big fight, I've never really bothered to think hard about it. I probably should.

[Fishythefish]

Had a look at DRK/KK. DRK's day 2 attack on KK was more than distancing - whoever's scum out of the two of them, DRK wanted KK lynched. Makes the pair a fair bit less likely. DRK's been focussed on KK ever since. KK on DRK is more interesting, and weirder. Day 2 KK thought DRK was scum, while the argument was hot. After that, he's barely mentioning him. It feels a lot like KK only wanted to call DRK scummy to undermine DRK's case; otherwise why the complete lack of action D3 onwards?

[mith]

Will definitely do some reading tonight. This week has been pretty awful so far. (And Fishy, I'm not sure why you felt the need to apologize, considering how little the rest of us have posted.)

[Fishythefish]

I was mostly apologising to the mod.

[mith]

Ok, nothing making me doubt Fishy-town on re-read. See #390, which applies pretty much equally to all pairings: Fishy's switch from me day 1 might have made sense if intending to set up for my lynch the next day (though - and this is definitely a little egotistical, but whatever - I have a hard time believing he wouldn't have much preferred me getting lynched day 1 to Panzer), even his Kitty Mo vote might have fit that, but post #220... no. On the off-chance that he's pulled some crazy bold gambit here, I think KK is his most likely partner (simply because with the other two he had KK to jump to as well!), DRK next, and if it's Fishy/Rhinox I'm going to yell at them for wasting our time because they had this won without the Kitty Mo votes.

With the other pairings... Rhinox/KK still feels the least likely. I'm a bit at a loss for what else to say about the possibility of Rhinox being scum with respect to the day 2 vote - Fishy, ISO me and re-read yesterday's argument - but whereas I feel it's plausible either one of them might have bussed, both of them doing it, even with KK "in danger" at two votes and Fishy's call to arms, seems wrong. So the pairings still point to DRK (again, see yesterday's discussion re: Rhinox/DRK; I don't think I have anything left to add there).

If I evaluate them individually, I do think Rhinox is the least suspect, where my pairings come out with him second; his posting yesterday doesn't sit well with me of course, but only in the context of him possibly being scum with DRK... I can at least see why he might have waffled (heck, I was voting for Katsuki at the end of the previous day), and otherwise, he has seemed genuine. But: "So, would scumRhinox mind too much about a Kitty lynch? For me, the answer is clear." Me too. (Hint: the answer is no.)

KK's most suspect posting is the lack of it. There has been very little content aside from a strange series of questioning directed at me (which even he admitted was "feeling misguided") and his lalalaican'thearyou exchange with DRK. From my point of view, his actions are a little questionable for scum. (Day 1: Fishy asks why KK didn't hammer/threaten to, with a negative connotation; I ask the same with a positive one. Day 2: He could have voted for me instead of bussing. But that's not likely to be persuasive for anyone outside my headspace.)

DRK, there have just been a lot of things that don't add up to "town". #154 is sticking out in particular right now given the KittyMo flip (see my #159). #227/#235 (re: his "I'm not unvoting KK" stance... which, er, seems to have slipped his mind yesterday), meh. #312's "Call me stupid", doesn't feel genuine. #361 still feels like a slip. #376 doesn't feel genuine either (it actually feels more like the sort of question I would ask at the beginning of the game to avoid that silly random voting nonsense, not the sort of question you ask of a self-voter on day 4).

I'm out of town this weekend... I want to give this one more think when my head is clearer, but I expect I'll be voting Monday.

[Fishythefish]

@Rhinox, DRK, KK: how are the rereads coming along?

[DeathRowKitty]

Sorry - I'll probably finish that tomorrow (busy-ish today). No real excuse for not getting to it yet past "I like unnecessary extra sleep more than I like this thread." I've dreamt about this game three times since I last posted though...

[Kublai Khan]

Okay.

Did some re-reading... Best guess for a scumpair right now is DeathRowKitty & Rhinox.

DeathRowKitty mostly because of the time period between post 218 (mith adds fourth vote to KittyMo) and KittyMo's eventual lynch. If you ISO DeathRowKitty, you see that this is the point where he launches into a campaign against me that I still don't quite understand the goal of. Ending at 252 (I think???). He spends the next day voting for me all day, then he joins me in lynching Katsuki.

Rhinox is mostly due to POE. Obviously one of the remaining living players bussed KittyMo. Fishythefish led the charge (so, unlikely partner), I know I'm town, and mith jumped on as someone steering a deadline lynch. Rhinox's KittyMo vote was down fairly early on and he never really championed it beyond a few stray comments.

--
Fishythefish is still the towniest player. {If he bussed KittyMo, then he deserves a scummy}.

[Fishythefish]

Bugger this for a game of soldiers.

VOTE: Kublai Khan

I think this is the right move. He's in all my favourite scumpairs. I'm voting despite LYLO because it forces the town's hand - this basically makes the lynch me or KK, since if we are both town the game's up anyway. And in practise, I'm pretty sure that means the lynch is KK. I think this decision is better than the collective, possibly scum-influenced one. In particular, I don't want mith to vote DRK and make this a mith-DRK decision; I put enough weight on DRK/KK

and

on mith/KK for that to be a scary choice.

The only thing I've been waiting for is to hear from Rhinox; I'd have liked his opinion first. But I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have changed my mind, and this really is the lynch I want.

[DeathRowKitty]

When's deadline?

I've finally gotten around to starting to reread the game today (unexpected forced socialization pretty much all of yesterday ate up all my time). I'm on page 11. The main thing I've gotten out of this so far is that mith-KK makes a lot more sense than I'd given it credit for. My individual reads on people haven't changed much though.

[Fishythefish]

Deadline is not for a week and a half. I'm voting because I think it's the best way to get the right lynch, which I think is KK.

[mith]

Just got home. Meh. Guess I'll find out soon if I'm right about DRK/Rhinox.

[Rhinox]

gah I suck. Sorry I've been pretty much useless today.

Fishy voted KK. I'm still not sold on KK but I guess fishy's vote will make today pretty simple as far as vote options today.

I'm not going to be rushing any vote. I'm going to sleep on it. Assuming I don't wake up to a mith/DRK quickhammer - not likely since they've both posted already - I'll take a good look at KK and fishy and then try to determine who might be scum with KK (because I really don't see me voting fishy)

[Fishythefish]

Hooray, we survived the night at least.

And yeah, I feel kind of bad taking the game into my own hands when two people I've always thought were town and sensible disagree. But I'm pretty sure it's the right thing to do.

[Fishythefish]

(Well, not quite; one person I've always thought was town and sensible, one person I've wavered on and is sensible. And also mith.)

[DeathRowKitty]

Your vote prooobably made me feel way more paranoid than it should have. Having looked back, I'm pretty convinced you aren't scum with any remaining player though...and I didn't really think you were scum to begin with but *paranoid*

I would be kind of shocked if we have a mith+Rhinox+KittyMo scumteam here. Their overall interactions would have to be really bussy and mith+Rhinox would have to have basically blocked off any lynch except KittyMo on day 2 and I don't think they had a reason to do that. Also, they've both posted since the fishy vote and less than an hour apart.

Vote: Kublai Khan

I really have no clue on mith vs Rhinox as a partner and I don't want to think about it any more right now, but KK is individually scummiest right now and every team that makes the most sense includes him.

[Kublai Khan]

I think this is the right move. He's in all my favourite scumpairs. I'm voting despite LYLO because it forces the town's hand - this basically makes the lynch me or KK, since if we are both town the game's up anyway.

No offense, but that is the stupidest thing you've done all game. You know that I think that you're town, so why present it as a false dilemma? Why did you rush this vote?

There is ZERO logic to the idea of a Kublai Khan/mith scum pair. Why the hell would we both vote for KittyMo at your suggestion? (Psst, reminder: it got KittyMo lynched).

Vote: DeathRowKitty

This game whenever DeathRowKitty's partner logs on, so it's a whatever thing. Unless Fishythefish is DeathRowKitty's partner. Give how bad post 463 was, it's a possibility.

Ug.

[mykonian]

Percieving that this was the day to make things happen, Khalid sent Dharar with 500 of his men to capture the bridge behind Vahan's lines. If he would win, the Romans wouldn't be able to retreat.

votecount

Kublai Khan (2): Fishythefish, Deathrowkitty
Deathrowkitty (1): Kublai Khan

Not voting (2): Rhinox, Mith

deadline is in 10 days.

[mith]

I guess it's possible DRK and Rhinox missed each other last night, but that seems unlikely. That leaves Fishy/DRK vs. Rhinox/KK + Fishy/KK (+DRK/KK on both sides of the equation), and Fishy/KK would represent monumentally bizarre play on Fishy's part, since he would have just needed to wait for me to vote.

I'll read through as soon as I'm off work tonight.

[Rhinox]

not hammering, so...