THE RESISTANCE II - Game Over!

[KingdomAces]

/in

Technically not mafia so I could still be fine.

[KingdomAces]

/out
/in to replace

I don't like taking slots that people want, and I feel like I'd just make things worse for everyone.

[KingdomAces]

Hi, I've been reading along, but I haven't really come to many conclusions yet.

Mission one succeeding could mean that there was one scum on the mission who just wanted to confuse people, but I highly doubt that, so it's probably either two or zero. That would mean that either both TS and JDGA are scum, or that Jal is scum. Something that I note here, is that JDGA was the leader on this mission. I also doubt that he would pick another scum to go on his own mission with him, since it is so likely that it would backfire on him, so it stands to reason that Jal is most likely scum here, so I'll be rejecting this mission.

More coming, I just want to put this out there as quickly as possible.

[KingdomAces]

For some reason, I think that in this situation Jalscum would want another scum on the mission with her, and then try to use that to clear them if there is only one failure. While scum can't talk to one another, I think that enough has happened so far this game that they would be able to figure out which one of them would be making the mission fail, as opposed to the first mission.

Between Jason and Deathnote, Jason is reading to me as more town. If Deathnote is scum, then their interactions from Deathnote's proposal would make me think that Siv is actually town. I know that he's been flailing all over the place, but from what I know of Siv, that's his normal play regardless of alignment.

Keeping in mind that I just got off a game of Mafia where every single read I had all game was inaccurate, this is what I'm thinking so far. Also noting that I didn't really do a full reread, just specific bits. If I'm missing something important, let me know.

Town:
KA
TS
JDGA
Siv
Jason

Scum:
Jal
DN

Null:
Bowser
Thurhame
Diplomat

[KingdomAces]

Because that's the obvious first thought. At this point in the game they probably have some way of determining who would sabotage, so it would be better to have a second one of their own on, so if Jal was thought to be confirmed scum, then the other three would then be considered confirmed town.

I like WIFOM. That's why I can't play Mafia.

About one scum letting the mission succeed on purpose, yeah they'll get towncred for it. Once they keep on getting put on missions and having them fail, it will still be obvious what is happening, and that way they don't give up the first mission, which otherwise is too important to just give up like that.

[KingdomAces]

The first thing I should point out. I don't actually think deciding on the one person who should sabotage is something they would figure out over time. I'm thinking of a very specific method that would not work before, yet would work now. I don't want to go into more specifics in case any of the scum don't know what I'm talking about.

I think we can all agree that there must have been 0, 1, 2, or 3 scum on the first mission. My role PM says that it's not 3, so I can rule that out. It could be 1, but I explained in my last post why I thought that was highly unlikely. If it was 2 scum, then from my perspective it must be both TS and JDGA. JDGA was the one who selected this team, so if there was two scum on it, then it was because he wanted two scum to be on it. If that was the case, then I'd assume that he dropped some kind of clue to TS what he wanted him to do. I looked though JDGA's posts around that time, and nothing seems to stand out. Anything else they could both be doing as scum just seems like a really bad idea. If you are town, that would tell me that someone on the scumteam was playing really sub-optimally. Even if it is better for town now, it will likely be far worse for them in the long run. Because of all that, I assume that it must be 0 scum on the mission, which therefore means that you

must

be scum. That is why I'm using it as fact.

I explained why I thought that you would want two scum on a mission is likely also. I'm not saying that one is not open for debate, but it's my current opinion on why I think it's most likely. Why I think it's more likely Deathnote than Jason is through going through early ISO's and gut. I'm not treating it as fact.

I can't argue why I'm town. I know I am, and I will use that information to my advantage. If you want to put my alignment into questioning, then do so. That isn't going to be something I take into consideration when I make my assumptions though.

As for Siv, I haven't actually actively lurked through games for a few months now, so my memory could be wrong on that. The only one that I specifically remember right now is this one. I didn't actually read through it again before saying that, or before saying this, so I could be blatantly misremembering though.

[KingdomAces]

Jal, why did you reject your own mission?

[KingdomAces]

I personally have the same opinion as TS for now. I'll try to get an opinion on Thurhame before he needs to submit a team.

[KingdomAces]

I'll avoid saying what I voted to be safe, but I will say that for me it came down to an ISO of Thurhame, since I think everyone else is town.

And Jal, I know that people do things that are sub-optimal, but if they do so then there's nothing I can deduce from that. That probably is just a massive flaw in my skills, but if I assume people will play sub-optimally then there is literally nothing to think about, when thinking is really all that I'm decent at. Even though I'm starting to second guess myself now, so I'm not very good at that either.

[KingdomAces]

Wouldn't it be due to the ease of this mission and not the difficulty?

Anyway, I voted to approve because I thought this mission was all town. Since I'm wrong about that, I guess I'm going to need to reread. Without it, my first guess is that it would be Thurhame, followed by JDGA. I still think Siv is town for some weird reason.

I'm also starting to second guess myself on Bowser right now. I had him as scum by PoE, but with him being one of the few people who rejected this mission I really can't be sure anymore. I would probably be able to get a better read on him though if he'd posted once since I've replaced in.

Can't really think right now, I'll get back to this as soon as I can.

[KingdomAces]

That team I'd be most cautious about Jal/Diplomat personally. I haven't really read up on the latter though, so that may change.

[KingdomAces]

Deathnote, if you're not scum can you at the very least try to help the town?

Also, after looking though Diplomat's posts again, he is not coming across as town at all. Would someone like to explain where that townread came from?

[KingdomAces]

My current scumreads are:

Deathnote
Diplomat
{Jal/JDGA}
{JDGA/Siv/Thurhame}

That leaves a team of myself, TS, Bowser, Jason, and one of {Jal/JDGA/Siv/Thurhame}

I don't include TS in the Jal/JDGA set because if one of the people on the first mission was scum, it seems more likely to me that it would be JDGA. I may reread these two before making a final submission though. Right now I'm leaning towards Siv as the fifth, since he still seems like the most town of the last group, but the problem is if JDGA is actually scum, then I would have no clue who the fourth member is. In that case it's probably either Bowser or TS, I may need to reread for connections between those three.

[KingdomAces]

Sorry, I forgot about this. I don't have much time now, but I'll have a team up by deadline.

[KingdomAces]

And now I have three hours left. Great.

JDGA's silence this whole mission is troubling to me, and making me think it's more likely he's one of the scum.

I know I'm going to put myself on the mission, and the other person I'm fairly sure of at the moment is Jason. The mass rejection of the last team seems more to me like none of the scum wanted it. The reason why I rejected it myself was because of JDGA/Diplomat, but the fact that pretty much no one actually accepted it at the very least makes me look at Jason more favorably, and possibly Diplomat as well.

More coming, I just want to bump this earlier in case anyone else is reading right now.

[KingdomAces]

Everything about Bowser right now pretty much boils down to PoE. The reason I had him as definite at first was because I was looking at it in the way that pretty much everyone could have been scummy in one way or another, and I didn't see that from Bowser in general because of the lower activity. Thinking about this now, it would probably be better to leave him off if possible, because while my first impression of him was filler town, there's nothing stopping him from being filler scum either.

Over the course of this mission, I've gotten a better read on Thurhame and Siv as well, especially assuming JDGA scum. No matter what, it's likely that they're not both scum, so as long as I feel safe enough about Jason and the other person I go with, having both of them on should still be good.

I still think that Deathnote is looking like scum, so unless something major happens, I'm not putting him on.

As they are now:

On:
KingdomAces
JasonWazza
Siveure DtTrikyp
Thurhame

Off:
JDGA
DeathNote
Bowser

Other:
TS
DiplomatDC
Jal

Unless someone else says anything before deadline, I think I'm going to put TS on as the last. Please tell me if I'm missing something though.

[KingdomAces]

...Deathnote, isn't there another part of my post you should be more keen to comment on?

Anyway, I don't feel comfortable enough with Bowser being either alignment. I don't necessarily think he's scum, but I have no reason to think he's town either.

TS, something about you today is just making me unsure. I can't place what specifically, which is why you are my current fifth. The other thing is that you were my top townread when I was assuming Jal scum. I'm not as sure of that anymore either, so it still has to be one of you, Jal, and JDGA. I don't really want to base everything on JDGA scum, since I'm not even certain of that though.

[KingdomAces]

Okay, nothing's going to happen in the next 15 minutes.

Nominate: KingdomAces, JasonWazza, Siveure DtTrikyp, Thurhame, and TS

Sorry if I just lost us the game. I don't think I did, but this is why I'm not playing Mafia for a while.

[KingdomAces]

I think this could be a bad idea. If Xalxe never does come back, then the scum can change to accept or reject depending on what the rest of us do, which is not something that can happen normally.

That said, I don't think that there is any specific reason why just getting a third party to do some things would be an issue, since everyone can just forward their own role PM's.

[KingdomAces]

So should we forward our role PM's and send in accept or reject now, or do you want to set something up first?

[KingdomAces]

Yeah, never let me play one of these again.

[KingdomAces]

In a longer note, I did figure out Diplomat and Deathnote, but only really because they had pretty much already given up. Here I want to yell at JDGA for being so active then just pretty much dropping out of the game, getting me to not trust him as much as I should have, but really it's more my fault for trusting TS so much. It felt like you were buddying me, and I don't know if you actually were or not, but it appears to have worked.

And sorry Bowser for doubting you. Thurhame did start making a comeback in my eyes towards the end, and I trusted him way too much. I should have realized that you were town specifically because of DeathNote's last comment,

And Jal, I tried to use logic, but but that just got manipulated really easily. I started catching on that you didn't actually sound like scum at the end, but TS AtE's me won out.

Sorry for replacing in then losing the game, but at least it finished.

[KingdomAces]

Now that Siboot got canceled, I can just say that I figured out who TS was there, and I was allied with him. That's why I was more inclined to trust him here than I should have been. I know I shouldn't have brought outside influences into this, but I guess that just happened anyway.

[KingdomAces]

I'm working on it. Can you at least try to help?

Trust and Betrayal, which was run by JDGA, and then was just canceled due to lack of interest.