Mini 1438: Gonzo Mafia (Scum Win)

[buldermar]

My bad. My writing sucks.

If Jon alive, night kill (almost likely me), almost likely Jon is going to mislynched (especially town result), confirm 1 person.

Alright, I think I understand, and I agree. However, I'm not entirely sure how it relates to your withdrawal from 1v1'ing me?

Remembrance (L-2): I Am Innocent
I Am Innocent (L-2): SE-Asians

Not Voting: I Am Innocent, pirate mollie, buldermar

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Deadline is on Sunday, June 16th at 8:00 PM EST.

[SE-Asians]

Alright, I think I understand, and I agree. However, I'm not entirely sure how it relates to your withdrawal from 1v1'ing me?

Not related at all.

I just realized that I need to

PROTECT MOLLIE

tonight. Every 1v1 I'm always lose by the way.

[I Am Innocent]

@IaI, post 3467

Meh, at that pt it was 3-3 and right after Mollie expressed her intent to hammer Kuror. If scum remembrance switches at this pt, I flip town, Kuror goes today, and it is basically 1 vs 1 with u and Bulder, with the pressure leaning on you because of the last minute switch.

So no, I don't give you town pts for not switching with the deadline hrs away from happening.

[I Am Innocent]

And I'm not blind. It was quite clear Buldermar favored voting you over voting Kuror0. I didn't need to jump back and forth.

This on the other hand, may have some merit. I will go reread, but letting the cat out of the bag, Bulder is the only other player that I think can be scum at this pt.

[I Am Innocent]

why do we have SE as town again?

He had the chance to take out the cop with me and Remembrance:

Willing to switch to Jon if Asians/Remembrance are game, or Kuror if Jon/Bulder are game. Otherwise, adios!

PS - And I <3 you too Mollie...still glad I signed up as frustrating as most of these players were.

But refused and decided to stay on Kuror. That would have been one heck of a bus...

Factor in the connections between Bacde and Asians early in the game, I am pretty positive Asians is town.

Why would he know that?

He knows the number of roles, but not who has them unless he read your claim. For example, he assumed you were a cop. Instead of a doc and that someone must have fake claimed. But where does that assumption come from?

I don't know why he assumed me as cop also. The mafias know how many cops and docs. The last who claiming role (not claim night) sequentially is Rubicon, Mantis, and the last is me.

Let's say Rubicon's slot is scum, so he was fake claiming. So Mantis and I are the last who claim, but Mantis lynched in D3 and flipped as doc, so Jon knows what is my role even though I didn't claim. Other side, town still need my confirmation, and Jon did this.

I couldn't say that this is legit read, because if mafias realize this, then he gain a lot of towncreed in my view. Yeah, WIFOM...

I don't think mafias would fake claimed doc... But for stabilize the role, example if setup is 5 docs - 5 cops, someone of the mafias need to do this.

I really wanted someone said, "are you fake-claiming?" or anything like this in day 3 ... You know, I like fake-claiming. *sigh*

=

What is Jon's role? Oh, Hunter S. Thompson

Don't bother about investigate, not going to help. And what you did just make me paranoid.

=

Sorry IaI, I'm stick with my choice. Kuroro is the best choice

.

I don't think Buldermar + Jon are make sense. I strike this possibility. After Jon replaced in, he did buddying with Buldermar, I think this doesn't make sense as mafia + mafia.

By the way IaI, where is Buldermar + Kuroro, Buldermar + Remembrance, and Jon + Remembrance possibility?

=

IaI didn't do anything slip. When IaI asked Rubicon to claim, Rubicon in L-1. Time to claim, right?

=

I was frustrated... Any way, I think IaI's post make sense. His logic about the night kill are pretty good. Too good as scum.

Yes, I withdraw my accusation because I was wrong.

=

P-Edit : Bold text.

[I Am Innocent]

Entirety. Exams can't be helped. I went V/LA for the same reason earlier in the last game day.

This reminded me of something:

I imagine Kuror0 is ridiculously busy. The number of players who have announced they are taking tests and projects is very high. I went V/LA for the same reason (it's the first time I've ever announced a V/LA). He's still likely scum if you're telling the truth about being town IaI. I really hope you are.

What made you think Kuror was ridiculously busy? Was there something in thread? If so, can you reference it for me?

[I Am Innocent]

Why the hell I get feeling IaI bussing his partner whole day 4 now

Don't forget D3 too.

So plan going in to D3 was wait until HD claimed cop, then try to protect him by keeping two other players roles in the dark (Mantis and Rubicon, a doc and cop) which if followed, would have put doubt in the minds of scum if HD could have been protected that night or not.

As part of that, I say that these three players should not be lynched D3 (3 confirmed town) now, putting both scum on the chopping block with only 4 other town, one of which is nearly confirmed town mollie.

And then I bus the heck out of my partner D3, D4, etc...

All this rather than lay low, pick a different target to clear than the claimed cop, allow mantis and rubicon to get heat and have to claim, not bus my partner starting D3, etc?

[pirate mollie]

okay so I buy that SE is town.

that leaves buldey, rememory and IaI.

buldey - I have felt like he was town all game but he has not really been under any pressure. I thought that he town telled hard early in the game but now he has slipped into this sort of apathy that I usually associate with town however I know I have been there as scum too. it is a "my god can we just go ahead and get this game over with" reaction when you have lost your entire team. I am on the fence with him but will probably go the emotional route and not vote him. no one else may understand but I do.

IaI - he is wicked smart and an awesome player. the most damning thing was his d1 first post. I tend to get my reads early and be sticky with them. I know a little bit about what he is capable of but the last few days of analysis make him look like gold. but here is the thing. why push for me to be alive tomorrow? cos to be honest I hope I am not. I suck in lylo have only voted correctly twice. I very rarely make it to lylo I am almost always nked way early so I have yet to really develope the skills to navigate a lylo situ. you can probably look at my wiki page and figure that one out. so why would anybody want me around? I mean I wouldn't want me around if I were town. his position feels manipulative but his resignation on the previous day sounded genuine.

so that brings me to rememory. his constant dithering reminds me of borealis (buldey will get this) and it took me a couple of years to figure her out. I have a pretty reliable relative scum tell for her that I apply when I am not getting blindsighted by town retardetry. weird thing is, is that rememory dropped it in this game but applying meta to a player to whom you do not have meta seems silly to me especially since it is a relative tell and not an objective one.

so I am going to go with this cos it is all I have.

VOTE: IaI

IaI, if you are town plz don't be mad at me. it is by POE and if you flip town then well I guess we will have your reads to go on. but I get this feeling you are going to flip scum.

[pirate mollie]

also the vote count is wrong

[pirate mollie]

I change my mind.

VOTE: rememory

the town leanings on him are from nacho and I do not trust that. on my own I would have lynched him a long time ago.

[Remembrance]

3605: In general, it's my policy that absence does not = guilt. So I was simply stating that given he stated he was busy with finals (which I was also busy with ), his lack of participation at the last second didn't mean he was scum. Just busy. So I was just correcting that type of thinking. I sort of embarrassed myself one time when I said it, so when people say that, I tend to interject out of habit.

3607: This post was nice. The only way to get better at lylo is to get more experience in Lylo. Also, statistically, you're better to be in lylo than outside of lylo for town's chances at winning. just because you're likely town in a situation where one likely town with two other unknowns is a more advantageous position than 3 unknowns. you might vote wrong, but statistically, you have an okay chance to vote right. Sorry for Dithering, just completely confused. But I feel a little less confused now. Mostly thanks to this post (and I went hiking and that refreshing)

#3609: And Wisdom, and HD, and Mantis, and Rubicon, and Borkjerfkin.

[pirate mollie]

well, mostly majiffy

and how was my post not nice? I think you might be misunderstanding something

[pirate mollie]

I almost want to move my vote back to IaI

[Majiffy]

also the vote count is wrong

Bold

helps.

What's wrong with it? Looked right when I made it.

[Majiffy]

Am I gonna have to prod some bitches?

[SE-Asians]

Am I gonna have to prod some bitches?

No thanks. Prod dodge here.

[SE-Asians]

@Rem : Just ask. What do you think about the night kill?

[Remembrance]

For Jon? It's difficult to determine. I think we can agree that Jon would have been mislynched if he was left alive and we would have been in lylo(not mylo). He would have either confirmed someone or investigated the Mafia. If he confirmed someone this would probably force the mafia to kill that player and it would have narrowed the mafia's options for a kill along with it. For example, if someone were dead set on lynching that player(or hinted it), but there was another confirmed town the Mafia couldn't kill him/her and they would have to deal with that player or have the confirmed player come along, which isn't statistically good for their chances.

I could go farther out and list the possibilities if you want, but they're less likely and even if I said them, I would not know if that was the correct interpretation or not until the game ended, nor would I pursue them because they're farther out.

[I Am Innocent]

I almost want to move my vote back to IaI

Go for it. You still have a 50/50 chance in LyLo between bulder and remembrance.

To Asians and Mollie, what does scum need right now? Two mislynches. Why is that? Because Kuror was lynched over the cop D4 and me.

So what is scum going to do going into D5? Maybe get a feel for where every one stands? Try not to make too many enemies? Look at Remembrance's and Bulders play and you'll realize if you can get over your paranoia about me that this game is in the bag. Their play (not mine) emulates this. They also in past days held out as long as possible (or in Bulder's case, forever) from lynching Kuror.

Seriously, just iso those 2 and myself on just D5 and look who is waffling and who is voting. Get over the paranoia, and realize we have two dead scum because 1) Mollie got a guilty on Fate and 2) because I attacked Kuror ever since D3 and basically went 1 vs 1 on him D4, and because Asians backed me up and didn't go to Jon with me.

3 guaranteed town right there with 2 lynches to go. If you can get over your paranoia, we will win.

PS - Remembrance and Bulder, in your next post, I want you two to stop waffling and to rank the players from scummiest to towniest. I will do likewise:

Remembrance
Bulder
Asians
Mollie

Asians, Mollie, from this point forward I do not want you doing this. Scum should not be tipped off where you are leaning D6 if they get that far...

If Asians or Mollie are somehow scum, I will personally take this loss on myself and nom that player for a scummy.

[I Am Innocent]

you can probably look at my wiki page and figure that one out. so why would anybody want me around? I mean I wouldn't want me around if I were town. his position feels manipulative but his resignation on the previous day sounded genuine.

You know how many wiki pages I have looked on this site? One. MagnaOfIllusion, cause I wanted to see if he gave me credit in his wiki for Kunkstar's Cyclic Experiment. MOI had a great plan, but he was NK'd D1 and I basically took it to a fairly easy win.

Mollie, I want you in LyLo because you are as confirmed town as we have. If we mislynch D6 and you are in LyLo, we got a random 50/50 chance at a win. You are not there, we have a random 33/67 chance at a win.

The key to LyLo is that neither town will vote for the other town. If you are town and you are there, it is VERY likely that the other town will not vote for you. That is half the battle. The other half is you picking right. And despite what your wiki page may or may not say about your LyLo record, I know you're a great scumhunter. You nailed Fate N1 and you read the Kuror vs IAI battle D4 correctly.

So in all sincerity, that is where I was coming from with why you should be in LyLo, and why it should be declared by Asians that he will be protecting you. No buddying up, it wasn't needed. You were going into N4 telling Bulder how town I was. Remember that? So just like D3 when nobody suspected me but scum Kuror was saying I needed town cred in protecting HD/Mantis/Rubicon, and I called it bologna? Same thing with scum IAI not needing to buddy you D5 because you already saw me as town. Truth is I am town and pushing the best strategy we have, just like I did with the Kuror/IAI lists D2 (which got ignored) and pushing Nacho's plan over the counter ones D1/D2 (which also got ignored D1)...

[Remembrance]

Iai, have you thought about what I asked you to think about? It doesn't seem like you're commenting on it.

[pirate mollie]

I almost want to move my vote back to IaI

Go for it. You still have a 50/50 chance in LyLo between bulder and remembrance.

To Asians and Mollie, what does scum need right now?

Two mislynches

. Why is that? Because Kuror was lynched over the cop D4 and me.

So what is scum going to do going into D5? Maybe get a feel for where every one stands? Try not to make too many enemies? Look at Remembrance's and Bulders play and you'll realize if you can get over your paranoia about me that this game is in the bag. Their play (not mine) emulates this. They also in past days held out as long as possible (or in Bulder's case, forever) from lynching Kuror.

Seriously, just iso those 2 and myself on just D5 and look who is waffling and who is voting. Get over the paranoia, and realize we have two dead scum because 1) Mollie got a guilty on Fate and 2) because I attacked Kuror ever since D3 and basically went 1 vs 1 on him D4, and because Asians backed me up and didn't go to Jon with me.

3 guaranteed town right there with 2 lynches to go. If you can get over your paranoia, we will win.

PS - Remembrance and Bulder, in your next post, I want you two to stop waffling and to rank the players from scummiest to towniest. I will do likewise:

Remembrance
Bulder
Asians
Mollie

Asians, Mollie, from this point forward I do not want you doing this. Scum should not be tipped off where you are leaning D6 if they get that far...

If Asians or Mollie are somehow scum, I will personally take this loss on myself and nom that player for a scummy.

wrt the bold: only scum think like this

VOTE: IaI

[I Am Innocent]

"what does scum need right now? Two mislynches."

Really? Asking what scum needs followed up by me telling you what scum needs makes me scum? Please...

Did you even read the rest of my post? Did you read those 3 D5 player iso's....they can't take long.

Favor, please unvote me for now. If I can't get the two players that I refuse to vote for today to not vote for me (you and Asians), I am going to be the lynch today. Which is a good thing because if we lynch town (mislynch...) today, one of you two are going to have to vote out the last player, and I don't want to be there with either of you if you think strongly I am scum.

Still, we need those lists from Remembrance and Bulder. Plus I would like to have a few parting suggestions before I am lynched regarding N5/D6. So once again, please unvote me for now.

*************

@Remembrance, why did you not provide a list after I asked for one? Why do you continue to stall? I would like you to submit yours before Bulder does his. Next post please.

As for your question, I have not reread D4 to see your motives vs Bulder's motives. I have in fact been busy.

Still the fact you are the only remaining living player who had easy target HD (a scummy player going into N2/D3 who defended Bacde/Fate hard D1) on his Top 2 list prior to my investigation reveal + Kuror continuing to keep you on his investigation list when he would have had a chance to switch things up based on Nacho's and my suggestions + the fact I survived N2, which if Bulder was scum (he was on my list), he could have fake protected Kuror and took me out all points to you being the last scum.

So my vote stands.

[pirate mollie]

UNVOTE: IaI

[Remembrance]

Your vote stands but you've been busy and haven't been able to look over the information/arguments.

I asked you to do one thing. You haven't. Why should I do what you ask of me?