Open 506: Pick Your Power X/Y, Game Over
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Siveure DtTrikyp Mafia Scum
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Okay, so after I put my bid in I was bored and wondering whether anything in the draft could help us find scum.
Then I thought, "You know, it's probably the 1's."
I checked previous PyP games, and in all the open games scum picked 1... hmm.
VERY probably 1 scum in cade/ytwc
VOTE: your troubles will cease-
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YAY MASSIVE QUOTE WALL WOO.
Scum in 427 wrote:Alright. Cobbler, if you haven't picked already, I reckon it'd be worth taking 1 in the hope that everybody else will think somebody else will take it. I think with 1, 4 and 8, we'd have a pretty good chance of getting at least one of us pretty high up in the drafting order.Scum in 486 wrote:I think it's worth one of us going for 1 because I'm sure if we don't someone else will and if they don't then we'll have first pick. Then perhaps 4-10 and 10-15. If safety is correct then perhaps even numbers are the way to go.Scum in 472 wrote:Guys I'm picking 1
someone pick 2
and someone 3
People will get scared of picking these low numbers.
I'm only scared this might obv point to us...Scum in 374 wrote:I think we should avoid picking numbers 2-4. I feel like people are not going to want to pick number 1 thinking that other people might and go for those numbers. I think we should also avoid picking 7.OtherScum in 374 wrote:Im taking #1, which was my plan if I was town. If I get it, im taking vig, which even though I hate it, its what I alluded to before, taking it means that no one else will get it. As town I would just grab it and then never shoot. If I dont get it im taking a scrub role. Even now im not going to shoot if I get it for a long period of time, probably until an endgame.-
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Siveure DtTrikyp Mafia Scum
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Hey, belisarius has a point. I think town are likely to act in their own interests in the draft, without regard for the overall shape of the draft, (Ik I did). If you look at things from the perspective of being good for ALL the town then it's way less risky for town to go for 1.
And nobody has ever gone after the people who picked 1 in previous pyp games for picking 1 and it's WIFOM. Drawing attention isn't a good reason.
Anyway, i like ytwc's response, and not stryker's so
UNVOTE: your trouble's will cease
VOTE: stryker-
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Doubling up probably isn't going to happen because most people won't realize the potential gain.
And I don't think I've ever played with you.
And I think what happened was nothing to do with number theory beyond further narrowing down the scum of a pool of 6.
And how the hell is my pick of over 9000 relevant? I could have picked TWO and I wouldn't be implicating myself.-
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Siveure DtTrikyp Mafia Scum
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We don't. But it's very unlikely. How many people use the numbers? You'd have to be one to realize what's the reward in the draft phase. You don't even agree with the idea, so I find it highly doubtful you're scum that's doubled up. Everyone else isn't bothering with the numbers.In post 55, Alabaska J wrote:
this is not a good reason to disregard the possibility. how do we know they won't realize the potential gain?In post 54, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:Doubling up probably isn't going to happen because most people won't realize the potential gain.
Also, if you wait for certainty you get nothing done because even a cop with a guilty could be scum fakeclaiming. You have to go with the most likely scenario, which is that scum didn't double up.
Twas a response to pecan's thing about hoopla in the other game.
i don't understand the point you are making. can you please clarify this?In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5055250#p5055250]post 54[/url], [quote=Siveure DtTrikyp post_id=5055250 time=1372129906 user_id=19215 post_num=54] wrote:And I think what happened was nothing to do with number theory beyond further narrowing down the scum of a pool of 6.
Can't argue with defensive. W/E. This SUCKS. So much. Euck.
it is relevant because you are accusing scum of choosing lower numbers since you think they can afford to take the risk while you yourself don't choose a lower number - in fact you choose the highest number. i'm not saying it is a smoking gun by ANY means, but it is certainly relevant because you are conveniently not in a position to be suspected by your own theory.In post 54, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:And how the hell is my pick of over 9000 relevant? I could have picked TWO and I wouldn't be implicating myself.
you seem pretty defensive here, so i'm gonna go with my gut and
VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp
Anyway, I'm not accusing scum of choosing lower numbers in general. I'm accusing scum of choosing ONE. JUST ONE. Two isn't the mystical lowest number available that guarantees you first place if no-one picks it.
Ah. Defensiveness. So if I don't be defensive I don't need to be. Novel concept.In post 58, pieceofpecanpie wrote:Alabaska actually raises a decent point. Choosing a number over 9000 doesn't clear you. Yeah, it doesn't implicate you either, like Siv pointed out in #54, but the defensiveness is interesting.
@SiveureThis is your first PYP game yes? Were you hoping to get a free town ticket with your draft number?
Anyway, This is my third PyP game and I was hoping to get high with my draft number. Nobody is going to give a crap what I picked or who I could be scumbuddies with because I've already done this setup twice.
Cade's entry is interesting. He's the scummier of the two 1's even before that post, and he's voting stryker? Eh, it really doesn't mean anything as it's his first game.
Pecan's case is basically what I saw when I voted stryker, I just um... suck at cases. So much.
I picked 9002, as I wanted the highest number so might as well go ridiculously high and the DBZ reference doesn't hurt. And I didn't want 9001 JUST IN CASE anyone had the exact same train of thought up to that point.
Hey, I LOVE MAKING WALLS ITS SO FUN!-
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Siveure DtTrikyp Mafia Scum
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You say you considered the drafting or something somewhere. W/E.In post 96, Alabaska J wrote:
your tone sounded very final to me, as if you were disregarding the possibility. my point is that your theory is so vague and not likely to help until later that i don't see why you make such a big deal about dismissing the doubling up thing in the first place. i don't think it is relevant, while you seem to imply:
that we shouldIn post 91, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:Also, if you wait for certainty you get nothing done because even a cop with a guilty could be scum fakeclaiming. You have to go with the most likely scenario, which is that scum didn't double up.disregardit. that seems a bit severe. you seem to think that i am for using the theory to scumhunt, which is incorrect. i am saying it could be interesting but something we shouldn't use as a case right now. you say we should actively not think about it, which i find puzzling. do you see the difference here?
And we shouldn't think on it if our thoughts are "OMG WIFOM WE CAN'T KNOW ANYTHING," when it's fairly clear that stuff works.
no you can't argue with defensive, but you could try and defend yourself in a non-scummy way. it is not that you are defensive, but the context around your defensiveness that warrants my vote. also, since this is my first really serious vote of the day, there is, to be frank, less to go on than, say, a vote on day 3. you going straight for the OMGUS here really reinforces my view. you act as though you are in danger of being lynched already, for pete's sake![/quote]In post 91, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:
Can't argue with defensive. W/E. This SUCKS. So much. Euck.
it is relevant because you are accusing scum of choosing lower numbers since you think they can afford to take the risk while you yourself don't choose a lower number - in fact you choose the highest number. i'm not saying it is a smoking gun by ANY means, but it is certainly relevant because you are conveniently not in a position to be suspected by your own theory.In post 54, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:And how the hell is my pick of over 9000 relevant? I could have picked TWO and I wouldn't be implicating myself.
you seem pretty defensive here, so i'm gonna go with my gut and
VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp
What context? I assume you don't mean it being the first vote on me when I've gone kinda aggressively pushing some stuff before? What omgus? I can't even find anything that could be omgus. And the stuff that sucks is me playing very good (for me) early on and still getting suspected which I'm kinda tired of. Or maybe I just whine about how much I get suspected without actually being suspected that much. W/E.
I get lynched a lot, so I always panic when someone who seems to know what they're doing (which is basically everyone who can make a case) comes up with a case on me. It's a sivtell.
Random other responses below.
I don't like the fos on YTWC - you're not seeing the same stuff that we're seeing on stryker, which is kinda weird.
I suck at hard data and logic.
My previous numbers were 3 (following my scumbuddies recommendation of a 1-2-3 pick) and 9 (thinking the max was 10 and thus going high.)out of curiosity, what numbers did you pick the other times?
PEdit: Where was stryker trying to direct the conversation TO?-
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Huh?In post 105, Alabaska J wrote:context as it being early and, yes, the first vote on you. i don't see how you can respond aggressively to votes before the first vote though...? so i am not seeing that argument (or maybe am misreading you). i interpret your "this sucks. Euck." as referring to my case on you. if you meant the situation however, it wouldn't be OMGUS necessarily. clarify this please.
I'm asking where is the OMGUS and you're asking ME to clarify? No. This is clear. You first.
The first is not referring to votes.-
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Yes I was town when I pikced 9.
Alabaska, the point of a policy lynch in this instance is that if we can't tell if he's scum, and never will, then he HAS to be lynched because it's no worse than random odds and we don't want to waste time on him. But hey I say we give him a free pass today and crack down HARD tomorrow or day 3.-
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Eh, I'm in favour of not hitting the 4s because they're 4s. At least two of them are town. My theory isn't really opposing hoopla's, it's just sort of wildly speculating in realms beyond it. And it was mostly a way to get out of rvs. It may not have started that way but that's what it's become (Although I do think cade is scummy).
People doubling up will not happen unless someone deliberately decides to screw with the meta of draft number theory and very few players actually know/care about that and those who do we can disregard the idea for (and it's still unlikely for those, as it IS screwing you over in the draft.) The players I'd be cautious of are alabaska somewhat and pecan definitely, should they flip scum. And me, for everyone else, but as I said it's pointless.
Sure, you may have people fake ignorance of the ideas of number theory but that is REALLY screwing with it and superrisky if someone actually catches you on it and if someone pulls this off successfully they deserve the win.-
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Deckard's reads look really surface.
Hey, what about me starting the theorizing to lock it away from my stupidly high number?In post 159, Deckard wrote:Credits go to Siv for getting us out of the RVS that early and I don’t believe for a second that Siv would risk to start theorizing about the draft as scum while he has pucked such a high (and unique) number.
Amd ytwc has a gooood point.-
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Nah I don't think scum wouldn't pick 4. As I said, EVERYONE thinks its safe, not just town. Twas just filler tbh.
Anyway... I'm going to go into sheep mode and
UNVOTE: smudger
VOTE: sakura
Pedit: the vote on smudger comes after my vote, not after the post in question, so she misread it in a way that she found scummy a full day after she first got back to thread?-
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Hangon a moment isn't there three scum?In post 283, Yesterday wrote:I think I just hit the jackpot, sorry if this seems messy but notice this:
Playerlist:
Belisarius
Mutleyddmc
Smudger
Your Troubles Will Cease
Sakura HanaSiveure DtTrikyp
pieceofpecanpie
Alabaska J
*Xdaamno Moon
TMTOLBTWNTOF
Elyse Crimml
Deckard
*Cade
Yesterday Stryker
And Deckards reads list order in Post 159:
Belisarius
Mutleyddmc
Smudger
Your Troubles Will Cease
Siveure DtTrikyp
pieceofpecanpie
Alabaska J
Xdaamno
TMTOLBTWNTOF
Crimml
Cade
Stryker
Sakura Hana
He's left his scum partner until last to state a read on while doing everyone else in the OP's order.-
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Okay finished reading everything and Idk who to vote.
Um, I read posts 267-269 as smudger did. Given that xdaamno did nothing with it that's reaaaally weird.
I think the doctor/jailkeeper should make up their own mind on who to protect if we have one. Eh, that softclaim is slightly risky just b/c we might not even have a doctor.
Sakura has no reason not to vote deckard or herself unless they're scumbuddies.
VOTE: deckard-
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Siveure DtTrikyp Mafia Scum
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Given that everyone was still voting him it really doesn't look like people noticed.In post 365, Alabaska J wrote:
nice pseudo-content there buddy. we don't need anyone to tell us stryker isn't posting, we've noticed.In post 214, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:You know, the whole stryker thing is a pointless waste of time, as
"Last visited:Wed Jun 26, 2013 5:18 pm"
Yeaaah.
Waitaminute that's two days after his last post... Hrmm, I think he really should be replaced by now.
And dangit I've been way too focused on stryker argh.
Okay. What? We basically had a rvs-worthy case last way longer than it should have because the guy flaked. I realized there wasn't anything coming from it unless you take stuff like that over what the replacement does which is stupid so I swapped my vote as soon as it became apparent he was definitely getting replaced.
you are doing everything you can to keep me voting you, aren't you?In post 220, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:UNVOTE: stryker
bored with this vote and nothing coming from it.
VOTE: smudger
Extreeeme gut.
Haaangon a moment... I was about to agree with this but me being a sheep says "alabaska is scum b/c he's trying to deflect the lynch off his partner."anyway, Sakura seems more like scum to me than Deckard to be honest, also Mutley had already voted deckard so i don't know why people freaked out. i'd rather lynch Sakura since she's being blatantly anti-town in giving up. Deckard may have also been in another game/left the website open so the whole following-the-daychat thing is a little fishy to me. also i would expect scum to pretend not to know about something the minute it is proposed, that's just the right play. i also am not as confident about the scumslip with deckard (i would probably use conditional phrasing as well seeing as not everyone knows my alignment). i would be willing to lynch deckard though just to get the game going since the case against him certainly has its merits and a large portion of the town seems to think he is scum
We should totally lynch deckard. And a cop should investigate alabaska or sakura... idk if sakura is that good an idea b/c she's given up.
PEdit: I think YTWC is town for the reasoning of why he picked one.-
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Alabaska J wrote:its clear to me that sakura was the vig shot because of her actions yesterday. also, just because i was not voting deckard yesterday does not make me scum, otherwise why not go for ppp as well?
Okay, this paragraph is what I was referring to with the whole "lynching sakura over deckard."In post 365, Alabaska J wrote:anyway, Sakura seems more like scum to me than Deckard to be honest, also Mutley had already voted deckard so i don't know why people freaked out. i'd rather lynch Sakura since she's being blatantly anti-town in giving up. Deckard may have also been in another game/left the website open so the whole following-the-daychat thing is a little fishy to me. also i would expect scum to pretend not to know about something the minute it is proposed, that's just the right play. i also am not as confident about the scumslip with deckard (i would probably use conditional phrasing as well seeing as not everyone knows my alignment). i would be willing to lynch deckard though just to get the game going since the case against him certainly has its merits and a large portion of the town seems to think he is scum
LOL. Sure is quick omgus, as it comes very quick in the day, even if it's not the same day. Sure is sheeping mutley, as I voted after him even though I supplied the reasons.i'm glad Siveure is so quick to OMGUS and sheep mutley, who isobviouslythe best player here and someone who should be followed :/
Also, alabaska, why attack our votes instead of focusing on the case?
Okay, so deckard's rvs suspect was YTWC. What makes him more likely scum than town beyond this?
You seem to have only gone for stuff that's deckard pushing or scumreading ytwc, and you missed him defending him in 113. Given that that post was addressed to you I don't know why you omit this.
PEdit: Yeaaaah. And we're only catching them out with universal backup if they're dumbasses and can't figure it out AND with that decide to fakeclaim a role they don't have. Yeah right. I really think you're overstating this.
I think beli could have gotten shot b/c scum were scared of the driver method .
And um, I kinda don't want to claim, so yeah lets not massclaim. I suggested it as I want to work out what everyone's role is and yeah we lynched one scum yesterday so we're kinda advantageous and there's a couple roles which are way likelier town than scum so yaaay. Alabaska, I have no idea why you're asking me this, unless it's rhetorical and I don't trust rhetorical even though that's probably very hypocritical. If I'm lying about it, do you really think I'm going to crack under one question?Alabaska J wrote:ok this was my first reaction. Siveure, is the reason you brought it upreallybecause you just "felt like it"? that sounds like a horrible reason.-
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Yeah, popcorn claiming is the scummiest player claims first, then after that the person who just claimed picks the next person.
My suggestion to catch counterclaims is everyone claims partially - first whether you're a vt or a PR, then after everyone does this we claim the full roles (or what you went for if VT). This can cause scum to back themselves into a corner, potentially, if they fakeclaim, so they have to realclaim probably.-
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Siveure DtTrikyp Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2285
- Joined: June 21, 2012
- Location: Earth, Sol, Milky Way
Yesterday, you're a cop aren't you?
I think a jailkeeper is like the only half-decent role that both belisarius and smudger could have gone for. I don't see what else could have overlapped. SO yeah
UNVOTE: alabaska J
VOTE: smudger
Neighbourizer is very town, but I don't really think it's worth it for them to claim. It's actually pretty strong in the right hands. I'm not 100% sure those hands exist in this playerlist, but they should probably keep it quiet nonetheless.-
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Siveure DtTrikyp Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2285
- Joined: June 21, 2012
- Location: Earth, Sol, Milky Way
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Siveure DtTrikyp Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2285
- Joined: June 21, 2012
- Location: Earth, Sol, Milky Way
This.In post 436, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:I'm trying to find a way to say this that only the neighbourizer will get, but unfortunately I can't think of one other than saying it in the QT.
I've something I want to say to the neighbourizer without revealing it to the scum and that's the only way i can think of doing it reliably.-
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Siveure DtTrikyp Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2285
- Joined: June 21, 2012
- Location: Earth, Sol, Milky Way
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Siveure DtTrikyp Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2285
- Joined: June 21, 2012
- Location: Earth, Sol, Milky Way
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Siveure DtTrikyp Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2285
- Joined: June 21, 2012
- Location: Earth, Sol, Milky Way