Open 506: Pick Your Power X/Y, Game Over

[Sakura Hana]

I'm liking Xdaamo attitude so far.

Deckard: Why is contradicting yourself not scummy? I beg to differ, specially this early in the game

[Jennifer]

Vote Count 1.8

Cade

: Mutleyddmc (L-7)

Mutleyddmc

: Deckard (L-7)

pieceofpecanpie

: Xdaamno (L-7)

Siveure DtTrikyp

: Alabaska J (L-7)

Stryker

: Siveure DtTrikyp, pieceofpecanpie, Cade, Your Troubles Will Cease (L-4)


Not Voting (6): Belisarius, Sakura Hana, Smudger, Stryker, TMTOLBTWNTOF, Crimml

With 14 alive, it's 8 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, July 8 in (expired on 2013-07-08 07:00:00).

If you see any errors, please let me know in thread.

Alabaska J is V/LA until July 1.

[Your Troubles Will Cease]

Btw, just some take-it-or-leave-it advice for town players: It seems there's little point discussing your scumreads with the people you have scumreads on, because if they're scum, they'll try and subvert you.

I disagree. This is a surefire way to increase the likelihood of tunnelling. For me, scumhunting is a continual process and the best way to refine and solidify reads is direct conversation. If you shut your ears when your scumreads defend themselves then you'll never have a reason to move your vote. So, for me, that's a definite leave-it.

You do have a point in other circumstances though: if your second scumread starts defending your first scumread, take it with a pinch of salt.

Also, mod: according vote count I'm at L-7 with no-one voting for me.

[Jennifer]

Also, mod: according vote count I'm at L-7 with no-one voting for me.

Fixed. Thanks!

[pieceofpecanpie]

VOTE: pieceofpecanpie

*raises eyebrows*

for the following reasons:

[Xdaamno]

Btw, just some take-it-or-leave-it advice for town players: It seems there's little point discussing your scumreads with the people you have scumreads on, because if they're scum, they'll try and subvert you.

I disagree. This is a surefire way to increase the likelihood of tunnelling. For me, scumhunting is a continual process and the best way to refine and solidify reads is direct conversation. If you shut your ears when your scumreads defend themselves then you'll never have a reason to move your vote. So, for me, that's a definite leave-it.

Cool with me. I do think you may have missed my point slightly - I'm advocating a complete openness to being wrong and to changing your point of view; just that a debate with a suspect gives dirtier information than an objective analysis. I hold the view that the town works best with a high degree of individual decision-making outside of other people's opinions, so naturally we disagree.

[Xdaamno]

VOTE: pieceofpecanpie

*raises eyebrows*

for the following reasons:

That's a bit of a silly cheapshot.

[Belisarius]

I wouldn't laugh too hard. Xdaamno's methodology reminds me of Mark McClish. I'm hoping to have more in that same vein (albeit on other players) tomorrow. Tonight, work permitting, but I doubt it will the way things have been going.

[Jennifer]

Vote Count 1.9

Cade

: Mutleyddmc (L-7)

Mutleyddmc

: Deckard (L-7)

pieceofpecanpie

: Xdaamno (L-7)

Siveure DtTrikyp

: Alabaska J (L-7)

Stryker

: Siveure DtTrikyp, pieceofpecanpie, Cade, Your Troubles Will Cease (L-4)


Not Voting (6): Belisarius, Sakura Hana, Smudger, Stryker, TMTOLBTWNTOF, Crimml

With 14 alive, it's 8 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, July 8 in (expired on 2013-07-08 07:00:00).

If you see any errors, please let me know in thread.

Alabaska J is V/LA until July 1.

If Stryker, Crimml, and Cade don't post over the weekend, I will begin the replacement process.

[TMTOLBTWNTOF]

Still town read Sak.

But "I beg to differ" just sounds awkward.

[Sakura Hana]

Why is it any more awkward than saying "I disagree"?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Ew I'm kindof just waiting for stryker to react I wish he'd post.

(Yeah this is a prod-dodge)

[Belisarius]

Okay, I've now finished my passthrough using the Driver method as promised.

Every other time I've mentioned the Driver method, I've been queried on it, so I'll just answer the question before it's asked : The Driver method refers to using an aggregate of the methods taught by Janine "The Lyin' Tamer" Driver, which is something I've only been familiar with for about a week. I expect one of the ongoing games I've used it in to be completed before this one is, so I'll link to that if I'm still alive when the time comes.

My final thought on the result is that D1 is too early for it to be of significant utility. I've saved my notes, but won't be posting them in their entirety until a) we have a scumflip, or b) I'm posting them in the Dead QT, whichever comes first. This early, you're not missing much, since it just reads like an English professor with severe hemorrhoids ripping into everybody's diction, but later on rates of change in the quantity of Drivertells can be significant.

Anyone who wants to start using this method

exclusively

for Mafia would be better off reading up on Mark McClish's Statement Analysis method -- Most of Driver's work requires face-to-face content, and the part that doesn't is based on McClish.

Results are in the format of

Player

: Total Drivertells (line break)

Conclusion

.
Don't forget to take into account the length of each player's ISO when looking at their total Drivertells
Conclusions were written immediately prior to completing each player's ISO, so the early ones don't take the results of the later ones into account

Results:

Alabaska J

: 31

Extensive meta needed -- My gut's telling me that with a proper baseline I may be able to eliminate some or even all of the red flags noted.

Cade

: 1

Cade has only one post to analyse and it is a short one, so there's no help here.

Crimml

: 0

One post, no Driver-tells due to lack of content

Deckard

: 12, -1 for reverse-tell in #159 for a total of 11.

Deckard can be town forever given the high content:drivertell ratio

Mutleyddmc

: 2

Sadly, Mutleyddmc is probably town, although lack of non one-liner content renders the Driver method largely useless in a webforum context

Susan

: 16

Also has an exceptionally high content:drivertell ratio, verdict is probTown

Sakura

: 1

Null; only 8 posts in ISO, and only one slight drivertell. More content needed

Siveure

: 12

High content:drivertell ratio again...I'm starting to think D1 is probably too early to apply the Driver method, since I'm running out of players to ISO and still don't see scum :\ I *have*, however, discovered that I smoke and pace a lot more while fruitlessly Driver-diving, especially after the first hour.

Smudger

: 8

Yup, high content:drivertell ratio again

Stryker

: 2

insufficient content for Driver method to be useful

FREEDOM!

: 10

This is the first ISO that leaves me with a scumread -- There are more drivertells than posts, and multiple tells in several of them

Xdaamno

: 7

Lower content:drivertell ratio, but weak drivertells lead me to wanting more content before coming to a conclusion

Troubles

: 15

As in the case with Alabaska J, I think most of these red flags are stylistic in nature

[Belisarius]

VOTE: TMTOLBTWNTOF

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Uh, who the hell is susan?

[Belisarius]

pieceofpecanpie

[TMTOLBTWNTOF]

One problem with your post, Beli, is nowhere in the post do you explain what a driver tell is, and what tells you claim to have found.

[Xdaamno]

Not sure what the system is, but shouldn't average tells per post be a better metric, with number of posts included for a precision estimation?

Whatever conclusions you draw are irrelevant if you're scum, naturally, so you're an important one to read.

[TMTOLBTWNTOF]

PPP's driver to content ratio is WAAAAY higher than deckard.

Deckard is "town forever"

PPP is "probtown"

o_O

[Belisarius]

One problem with your post, Beli, is nowhere in the post do you explain what a driver tell is, and what tells you claim to have found.

Actually I did, at the beginning where I explained what the Driver method is. This gives you enough information to google Janine Driver, learn about the method, and draw your own conclusions instead of relying exclusively on someone (me) who has just started using it.

Not sure what the system is, but shouldn't average tells per post be a better metric, with number of posts included for a precision estimation?

Yes it would. That information is already available to you.

Whatever conclusions you draw are irrelevant if you're scum, naturally,

The conclusions themselves would be; how I wrote them would not.

so you're an important one to read.

Why thank you.

PPP's driver to content ratio is WAAAAY higher than deckard.

Deckard is "town forever"

PPP is "probtown"

o_O

The order is important; you can see from my phrasing how much less confidence I have in content:tell ratio as I continue to find sweet fuck all this early in the game.

Also, Deckard has a reverse-tell. PPP does not.

[Xdaamno]

Yes it would. That information is already available to you.

Yeah man, that's true, but I don't really have the time... haha. I would usually think that's up to you, since otherwise you've presented the town with entirely nonfunctional information which 'might' be able to be turned into something useful? Also, wanna speak a bit more about the methodology?

[Xdaamno]

oh

Actually I did, at the beginning where I explained what the Driver method is. This gives you enough information to google Janine Driver, learn about the method, and draw your own conclusions instead of relying exclusively on someone (me) who has just started using it.

Yeah that's cool, but I don't have the time myself, currently working 15 hour days

[Smudger]

Well that an interesting way of assessing who is who, or is it? Currently its based on what you term Driver Tell, and I will go Google this to see what it is all about. I don't understand though you state I have a high driver tell? what does this mean? to introduce this now and then say it is not much help, is not much help really. But as I understand it the reason for this is people have not posted a lot, especially those who are lurking?

I went and had a look at the site www.lyintamer.com all I could find was a lot of archive video footage of interviews, I could not actually find any links to a method that takes the content of a written document and gives you a result based on that content? Maybe I missed something? What I do see is that to truly understand her method I have to buy her book?

So not only do we have the number theories we have the Driver method and then from all that we can say so and so is scum? forgive me but I thought this game was about enjoying the hunt and doing it with what god gave us? our own brains and instinct? all this is doing is causing me more confusion right now as to who to believe. as and again do correct me if I am not reading this right but the tentative results of the number theories presented don't actually stack up against the Driver results?

number theory 1. we should be looking at those who chose number 1: Cade and Troubles
number theory 2. we should look at those who picked a particularly high number: Smudger, Belisarius, Stryker and Siveure DtTrikyp
Driver Method: what should we look at? it is confusing but basically you are stating that Freedom is giving the biggest scum read with a 10??

you say Freedom is scum with a 10, and yet there is a spread of numbers above and below that number, this is what I do not understand.
and can I ask why you do not analysis yourself?

[Smudger]

One further question, and I don't mean to offend any one:

Uh, who the hell is susan?

pieceofpecanpie

Pecans Bio says Male?

[Xdaamno]

Quite happy with Smudger's posting this game. Still suspecting pieceofpecanpie after a reread.