Micro 213 - Scumhunter's Speed [GAME OVER]

[Fifty Ways]

Also, because of the seniority rule, it's probably important to stake out wagons early in the Day so that a scum-driven plurality will never win tow.

[JKMatthews]

I guess I kinda agree with your logic, except that it rides on Maki not being bleedingly obvious scum... I just can't fathom that town read...

[Bertkerberos]

yeah...

I'm intrigued by the prospect of hitting scum today because then it becomes White Flag.

That sort of entices me, despite the trade of scum for a strong townie.

[Fifty Ways]

Oh, no, it allows for a maki lynch. I totally disagree with it, but sure.

I think that the chances of my town reads being wrong are extremely low, but it's always healthy to leave room in a grand plan for lynching either that-one-player-whose-been-fooling-you-until-now or that-one-player-people-have-strong-scumreads-on-and-will-probably-become-demoralized-and-easier-to-persuade-upon-that-player's-death.

[Fifty Ways]

Oh
It seems i both missed the white flag possibility and misinterpreted the seniority rule
yeahh

[Bertkerberos]

Nacho from what he said umm...

he doesn't like: Xegarus, Samuel, Lucky2u

His townreads (strong): Fifty Ways because you are Psyche (I don't even know you, but I trust his read), Kcdaspot

He has a townread on JK and Makia apparently too..

P-edit: so what changes about your perception of D1 now, Psyche?

[Fifty Ways]

I feel like we have enough consensus townreads that we're destined to win either way. We're bound to have even better reads as the game goes on, and there are no venge mechanics or PRs to make the process more swingy.

[Bertkerberos]

yesssssssss 20 minutes left and no movement

now thatta way, town

atta boy

[Bertkerberos]

Samuel's the only one that might budge. Hopefully he's not here watching at all if he's scum

hahahahaha

[JKMatthews]

Bert - do you honestly not see the logic behind my assuming no move means Lucky's town?
(just to clarify - seniority breaking ties means Lucky is lynched, right? Otherwise my logic falls apart...)

[Bertkerberos]

Bert - do you honestly not see the logic behind my assuming no move means Lucky's town?
(just to clarify - seniority breaking ties means Lucky is lynched, right? Otherwise my logic falls apart...)

what's your logic

[Bertkerberos]

both wagons could be scum too. did you discount that

[Bertkerberos]

I see Xeg as scum, you don't.

that's where our differences lie

If lucky is scum, then of course scum wouldn't rush to hammer a buddy

Makia is probably town, and therefore scum are on that wagon, not on Lucky's wagon...

Fifty Ways, Makia, and I are likely town. The only wildcard is Samuel Jackson

[JKMatthews]

Assume there aren't all 3 scum on the Maki wagon.
Assume Maki is town.
If lucky is scum, any scum on lucky's wagon would hammer town Maki then choose themselves to be killed that night, just to avoid the scum white flag.
That hasn't happened, so one of my assumptions is wrong.
I don't believe all 3 scum are on the Maki wagon.
Therefore "Maki is town" is a wrong assumption.

Yes, they

could

both be scum, but either way Maki is the safe bet, right?

[JKMatthews]

Maki being likely town doesn't make any sense to me from Maki's behaviour, by my logic doesn't even require behavioural analysis, just analysis of our current situation...

[Bertkerberos]

I believe all 3 scum are on the Maki wagon

Only wildcard is Samuel Jackson, who MIGHT be scum.

BUT, he has not posted since he voted for Lucky early on in the day (before the Maki wagon even developed)...'

It boils down to PoE and strong townreads, like Psyche/Fifty said

Nacho and Psyche have pretty similar reads and strong townreads

[JKMatthews]

Ugh, that sucks. Don't know how to convince you otherwise in only 5 minutes...

[Bertkerberos]

Either way, Lucky might not be scum, but Makia is more likely to be town (in Nacho's eyes) than Lucky.

At least that's how I think of it.

Actually, Fifty,

kcdaspot's exchange and posturing and refusal to vote Lucky2u (it was painful to witness) - I see what you're seeing. I see it. It is noted <3

[Bertkerberos]

I can't vote Maki. Nacho already said Maki is town as heck. I actually agree with him....and he usually has solid reads anyway, more often than not.

He thinks Lucky is scum. I do too. That's all there is to it :/

[JKMatthews]

I feel like the current situation is too much of a counterargument to that. If there's

any

chance all 3 scum aren't on Maki, then it pretty much guarantees Maki is scum...

Eeep... see you all tomorrow I guess...

[Antihero]

Final Vote Count of Day 1

lucky2u - 4 (Samuel L Jackson, Bertkerberos, Fifty Ways, Makiavel)

Makiavel - 4 (Kcdaspot, lucky2u, Xegarus, JKMatthews)

Not Voting: No one

5 to lynch, but lucky2u is the lynch as per the seniority vote rule.

[Antihero]

lucky2u, Townie, has been lynched!

Scum, you have 24 hours to submit your kill in the QT.

Day 2 will begin in (expired on 2013-08-16 00:25:58)

[Antihero]

Kcdaspot, Mafioso, has been killed!

It is now Day 2. Deadline is (expired on 2013-08-23 00:31:32).

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

[Bertkerberos]

Maki is town town town town town town town town.

Vote: Samuel L. Jackson

partner is *probably* xegarus, but who cares at the moment.

[JKMatthews]

Urrrghhhhhh...

Maki is town because of some interpretation of that happening that I missed, or still residual from yesterday?