Mini 1484 - Pick Your Partners (Game Over)

[Haschel Cedricson]

Because it's time to go Werewolf-hunting. It's a two-man scumgroup, so we can eliminate it today. Because it was only two people, that makes a bus less likely. That means the pool of werewolves is limited to people who didn't vote for Pjovek. One of those people died last night, which narrows it down even more.

If we hit a werewolf, there will be no more nightkills and then we have four mislynches to work with before the mafia can win.

[T S O]

Which is one way of looking at it. My way of looking at it says a Werewolf by itself is more likely to shoot Mafia who look Town. As well as this I dislike having a three-man team inside the Town. And a major flaw of your plan is if we don't hit the WW today the "4 mislynches" strategy gets blown out of the water. We have a far higher chance of hitting Mafia today.

[TheGarantula]

I agree with T S O about the numbers. I'm going to read Day 1 again before I place my vote.

[IceGuy]

Vote Count

T S O (1): Haschel Cedricson
Haschel Cedricson (1): T S O

Not voting (9): DrDolittle, Egg, Titus, Guy_Named_Riggs, Varsoon, Tochica, Mutleyddmc, TheGarantula, Natirasha

With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

Deadline is September 12th, 6 p.m. CEST.

[Haschel Cedricson]

There are three Mafia members and seven townspeople. 30% is hardly "more likely to shoot Mafia".

[DrDolittle]

Werewolf by itself is more likely to shoot Mafia who look Town

Uh Uh, try again! Werewolf functions essentially like an SK. Town, mafia are the same to them regardless, since mafia does not have kills. In fact town poses a greater threat because they are currently larger in number than mafia.

[DrDolittle]

Ofc with that said, I'm agreeing with Haschel, because 4 mislynches sounds really tempting to me.

[DrDolittle]

I think with a number crunch, 4 mislynch stratety with lynching randomly gives like a 75% town win ratio?

[DrDolittle]

also don't forget with the masons we have 2 conf towns vs the mafia.

[Natirasha]

Unvote, Haschel. Voting TSO for Pjovek's little WIFOM there is really dumb.

Anyways, I mentioned yesterday that there were likely two scum between {GNR, Mutley, Haschel}. I still believe that. Considering Mutley's complete and total lack of participation in anything important this game, I'm actually going to VOTE: mutley so maybe he can at least pretend to be useful.

Things I know for certain
-DrDolittle is not a werewolf.

[Mutleyddmc]

Pretending

[Varsoon]

WIFOM vest of invincibility, eh?

Also, glad I was right about DBK.
And Pjo.
I win Day 1.
Gonna go get mexican cokes.

[Titus]

VOTE: Hanschel

To me, that sounds like mafia protection. The goal should be to lynch scum, whatever form they take. If we get the wolf, that's a land mine because then the masons can claim. However, I don't think we have enough to gun after the wolf.

Doing a ISO on Pvojek. Looking for people he didn't interact with.

[Haschel Cedricson]

ahahaha

However, I don't think we have enough to gun after the wolf.

Now hold on while I gun after the wolf.

[Titus]

No. It's meant as we should take the scummiest suspect. It's easier to investigate who the wolf is, but scum is scum and we should take the scummiest player. That's my point.

[Natirasha]

WIFOM vest of invincibility, eh?

I think it's best to completely ignore the Pjovek WIFOM and just judge TSO based on his actions outside that one.

[Varsoon]

VOTE: Hanschel

To me, that sounds like mafia protection. The goal should be to lynch scum, whatever form they take. If we get the wolf, that's a land mine because then the masons can claim. However, I don't think we have enough to gun after the wolf.

Doing a ISO on Pvojek. Looking for people he didn't interact with.

Titus, let's have babies.

[Natirasha]

[quote="In post 364, Titus"][/quote]
+1

[Natirasha]

EBWOP: I fail at quote tags?

[Titus]

GNR, Garantula, Varsoon all bolded or voted by Pvjovek
,
DrDolittle, Titus, GNR, Varsoon, Natirasha, and Garantula were on the Pvjovek train.

It is highly unlikely that Varsoon, GNR or Garantula are wolves.

DrDolittle and Natirasha are possible wolves but if they were scum I'd think mafia first.

HC, TSO, Egg, Tochica or Mutley is likely the wolf if we scumhunt in that direction based on vote pattern. Looking through their ISOs to see any suspicious absences of Pvjovek.

HC's 254 suggests Titus, Mutley or TSO is the other wolf. TSO/Mutley wolf is consistent with the vote pattern.

TSO RVSes Mutley suggesting they are not on the same team. However, he has no mention of Pjovek in his ISO.

Egg seems to recognize the wagon but worries it was moving too fast. Not sure on this one.

Tochica, says he would lynch Pjovek if it came down to it but keeps his vote on DBK. Watch this one. Analyzes the wagon though.

Mutley's ISO looks scummy as fuck. No analysis anywhere with self-voting.

[Titus]

VOTE: Hanschel

To me, that sounds like mafia protection. The goal should be to lynch scum, whatever form they take. If we get the wolf, that's a land mine because then the masons can claim. However, I don't think we have enough to gun after the wolf.

Doing a ISO on Pvojek. Looking for people he didn't interact with.

Titus, let's have babies.

Thanks but I don't need buddying. I already got a husband.

[Varsoon]

Welcome to Muttley.


P-EDIT: Damn. There's always another man.
Regardless, good line of inquiry.

[Tochica]

My way of looking at it says a Werewolf by itself is more likely to shoot Mafia who look Town.

Do you mean the ww will want to shot mafia who looks town or it's likely due to mafia numbers? If it was me I'd try to shoot mansons.

Anyway I am not sure focusing on one faction is great idea, maybe as someone said if we have two suspects.

I also don't feel like what PJ left us after hammer can be used reliably, if anything I do not think he would have the guts to single his partner like that. I agree DrDo is very unlikely partner, also Varsoon judging by the fact he was saying Varsoon is n1 on his list and he was also saying '2 People both putting each other high in their respective lists are most likely to share communication (one way or the other (two)' I incline to believe he wasn't bullshitting on this one. I suppose playing the 'where is PJ on your list' game won't do us any good as the ww will just lie.

HC did you have any other reasons to believe TSO is scum? I also am not comfortable clearing the whole wagon for possible partner just because they are two, especially after self hammer. Early bus with intention to move later is possible and so is 'oh shit PJ is gonna get lynched I better get some credit' , also it's possible there wasn't a bus I personally cant say which I think is most likely atm.

I actually got super hooked on Bo-scum I should go and check his thoughts again, I am a bit lost.

Vote HC

[Haschel Cedricson]

HC did you have any other reasons to believe TSO is scum?

He fits the criteria of not being on the pjovekwagon, is one of a few players who feasibly could have had pjovek high up on his list, specifically wants to not hunt the werewolf, didn't mention pjovek at all, and was unnecessarily evasive when answering questions yesterday.

Obviously none of this proves anything, but all things considered TSO is an excellent place to start looking.

[Tochica]

Hmm I am not sure about Mutley hate, yes he doesn't have any content but I more see him as the 'I don't care type' which usually is null. Does anyone have any xp playing with him?