Mini 1484 - Pick Your Partners (Game Over)

[Mutleyddmc]

I voted this no lynch guy too.

Anyway I just read some of the game,

Think TSO is likely mafia. So if you want to get a mafia today he is so likely to be one. Oh and GNR is his partner

[IceGuy]

Vote Count

Haschel Cedricson (2): Tochica, Natirasha
Guy_Named_Riggs (2): T S O, Egg

T S O (1): Haschel Cedricson
Mutleyddmc (1): Titus

Not voting (3): Guy_Named_Riggs, Mutleyddmc, TheGarantula

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Deadline is September 18th, 9 p.m. CEST.

[TheGarantula]

I voted this no lynch guy too.

Anyway I just read some of the game,

Think TSO is likely mafia. So if you want to get a mafia today he is so likely to be one. Oh and GNR is his partner

@Mutley: Your reads have no wait until you back them up. Why do you think these things?

[Egg]

Ok, pj's ISO:
-notice his first post interacts with townies (Bo and Varsoon). Similar interactions are likely town players if it comes up.
-not sure if he's played with nickthename. Coming two minutes after his last post, it seems like he just realized nick is in the game. Tochica replaced nick and inherits non-wolf points.
-votes TheGar over mutley after looking at wagons. Not-wolf points for TheGar. Slight wolf points for mutley although it's more than possible that he "decided" between two non-buddies. Either way, he clearly was voting to lynch and TheGar is unlikely wolf.
-interaction with TSO about "weighing decisions" is not buddy to buddy talk.
-Seems to have given up when he votes Guy.
-self hammers and calls Guy scum. Might be last ditch distancing. Dumb in that situation because of risk but he seems the type to do it.
Conclusion: Thegar, TSO, and Tochica are off the table. PJ either tried to WIFOM us with Guy as his buddy or he avoided talking about his buddy completely. Mutley also has slight wolf points.

PJ's wagon (if I miss a vote, it's because I'm going by vote counts and it was unvoted before a vote count was posted. If it's relevant, it will probably come up when I ISO that player):
-drdo, Bo, titus, and varsoon start the pj wagon. Drdo has already flipped mafia. Probably a legitimate read. Bo and Varsoon are already town. Titus is the only living player on this list. When I go back and look at this vote, Drdo and Bo made voting PJ a cool thing to do just a few posts prior to Titus's vote and Titus gave a quick and general reason for voting. More than possible that it's a bus.
-Bo jumps off. Doesn't tell us much on it's own but changes the dynamic by tying the vote with mutley and making a Guy wagon realistic.
-Guy and PJ are now cross voting. I actually think that lowers their chances of being buddies on a two man team on Day 1. I think they'd try to do something with the Mutley wagon or push elsewhere especially with PJ seeming to have a legitimate read on DrDo. TSO also votes Guy while Nat votes PJ. Nat as a buddy would probably go to a Guy vote or stay out of it. No point in bussing now. Nat isn't wolf. I also don't think much about TSO's Guy vote. He clearly thinks Guy is scum and has stayed consistant today. Haschel is also content being the first vote on what is now a Guy wagon. Doesn't make him a buddy but means he can't be eliminated as a possibility especially with no real mentions from PJ.
-TheGar's vote makes me slightly uneasy at first because he kind of teased at suspicion of PJ and it looks like distancing until forced to bus. However, town with a slight scum read on PJ who sees PJ as scummier than Guy would look the exact same way and PJ voted TheGar over Mutley wanting a lynch and TheGar has looked town so I'm willing to fall in the direction of TheGar being a town (or mafia) vote here.
-and PJ self hammers.
Conclusion: Nat isn't wolf. Guy probably isn't wolf. TSO and TheGar unlikely wolf. Mutley, Titus, and Haschel seem to be the most likely buddies.

Mutley's ISO regarding PJ:
-what a shock. No mentions that I can find.
-I do notice he doesn't give a straight "no" when asked if he's scum until a follow up question is asked. Scum will do this because they try to avoid lying.
-his list was randomized. That makes it more likely that he has pj, a player who seems unlikely to be high on lists, near the top compared to people who actually made lists.
-he seems intentionally quiet. Not sure if he has a history of this as either alignment but without meta to support it, it looks bad especially when he says he's a "calculating guy" and varsoon knows this and varsoon ends up dead. Keep in mind the lone wolf we are looking for is the only one with a NK. I'm really leaning this Mutley guy here.
Conclusion: and here I was thinking Mutley's ISO would be a pointless quick read with nothing to be gained. This is a gold mine. I really think it's him. But just to be sure, I'll finish this analysis.

Titus's ISO regarding PJ:
-Ok, first mention of PJ is that vote. Doesn't look good.
-doesn't really follow up on the PJ vote. Kind of pokes around Guy/Haschel and defends himself from my comment that he could be lying about his list if he's scum.
-finally mentions PJ again by saying there's scum between PJ and Guy. Stays on PJ.
Conclusion: so hard to tell. Really could go either way here. Still think mutley is more likely but I just can't rule out Titus here. A lot of people seem to have him as town so maybe I should trust all your reads. Also doesn't make much sense for Titus to kill Varsoon who seemed kinda buddy buddy with him.

Haschel's ISO regarding PJ:
-with context involved, he clearly has Guy as scum long before a PJ wagon springs up.
-calls out pj for an inconsistancy in his Drdo vote. It looks good, but I think Haschel would do this to a scum buddy too.
-Guy vote is consistant with Haschel's play to that point.
-very intriguing post. Says that he can only see Titus, mutley, and TSO having PJ high on his list. Interestingly enough, he has both of the players I'm looking at who aren't him on this list. I'm curious to see if he kept this line of thinking after PJ flipped.
-I actually think Haschel forgot about the above point. But he stayed consistant with everything else and...well let me mmove on to the conclusion part
Conclusion: it's surprising how much haschel seemed to be thinking similarly to myself on Day 1. I don't see him as a wolf. Maybe mafia but a lot of the uneasy gut feelings I had faded as I went through that ISO. Not really sure where they came from.

Just for fun. Day 2 mafia lynch:
Titus is there, but early. Judging by the Day 1 lynch, he might just like to get the worm on these lynches. Mutley wasn't voting which isn't a shocker.

Yeah I'm comfortable with a:

unvote, vote Mutley

If it's not him, it's Titus. But I mean really. For a guy who seems to be not doing much, there are clear connections. The fact that Pj voted TheGar over mutley with clear intentions to push one wagon to a lynch over the other. The comment toward Varsoon and then the NK. The fact that it's hard to find a wolf on the Day lynch and mutley is the type to not be voting there (although I admit I didn't look as hard as I could have because my eyes are bleeding from all this reading/typing). The random list with low chances Pj was intentionally high on any lists. Hell, the fact that there is a compelling case to be made against a guy who has been in the background is more than enough to convince me especially with the number of people who I feel comfortable ruling out. Let's lynch mutley, eliminate the wolf, have the masons claim, and guarantee a town victory.

RALLY THE TROOPS!!! TOGETHER WE CAN MAKE ANYTHING HAPPEN!!! TODAY, OUR DREAMS BECOME REALITY!!!

GG

[Egg]

Oh yeah, that was a phone post so I don't ever want to hear anyone use that excuse again

[Egg]

I voted this no lynch guy too.

Anyway I just read some of the game,

Think TSO is likely mafia. So if you want to get a mafia today he is so likely to be one. Oh and GNR is his partner

@Mutley: Your reads have no wait until you back them up. Why do you think these things?

Weight*

[Natirasha]

Oh yeah, that was a phone post so I don't ever want to hear anyone use that excuse again

You have sick-ass phone skills.

[Mutleyddmc]

. Let's lynch mutley,

eliminate the wolf, have the masons claim, and guarantee a town victory

.

Basing things on a flip that hasn't happened.

That is pretty scummy my friend

When I flip town will you still want the masons to claim?

Also the weight behind it is that this is scum TSO and he likes to bus his partners early and often but with no real conviction

see the whole he votes but then proceeds to put him in a lynch pool of me and hersch, this is so he can change easily without it seeming scummy and random

[Egg]

That's a pretty obvious leap in assuming I'm pushing for masons to claim if we mislynch. It should be more than obvious that's not the case.

Also the TSO thing is laughable. Scum for having two suspects? There are three scum left. If you have a problem with two scum reads, it should be because he doesn't have a third. Not because he's...well...not tunneling one guy...?

By the way, in that post you've managed to ignore my case on you, try to discredit me with a giant stretch, and deflect to TSO. Keep scumming it up.

[Natirasha]

Still fairly confident Haschel is mafia. But. yes, we should wolf hunt today.

So I'll go along with your line of reasoning, Egg.

VOTE: Egg.

TSO, this is my case on you being the wolf. It's not as fleshed out as Egg's case on mutley, which is why I'm going for him at the moment.

Okay, actually, rereading TSO, I find it likely he is the other wolf.

First, his list was randomized. I think it's safe to say everyone who's list wasn't randomized did not deign to put Pjovek towards the top of their lists. This would narrow down our candidate pool to those who haven't randomed(Mutley, TSO, did anyone else fail to submit?).
Second, read post 67. Third, the little Pjovek WIFOM thing could be babby's first WIFOM and he only went one layer deep(I know I said to ignore the WIFOM, but I'm working with the theory Pjovek is a big noob, in which case I think he would bluff us into thinking he was lying while telling the truth). Fourth, his entry today distinctly said he wanted to kill mafia, not scum, not werewolves. No, he wanted mafia.

[Natirasha]

EBWOP

woops, derpvoted.

VOTE: Mutley

[IceGuy]

Vote Count

Mutleyddmc (3): Titus, Egg, Natirasha

Haschel Cedricson (1): Tochica
Guy_Named_Riggs (1): T S O
T S O (1): Haschel Cedricson

Not voting (3): Guy_Named_Riggs, Mutleyddmc, TheGarantula

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Deadline is September 18th, 9 p.m. CEST.

[Tochica]

@Egg while I actually agree with most of your analysis and the general conclusions I still think hc is better vote. I maybe am starting to tunnel here but I do not have actual read on Mutley he is more of a poe suspect.

Anyway please guys don't quick lynch again, I know it has worked for us so far but at least give time for gnr to post content it will be helpful later on.

Mutley who do you think is ww?

[Egg]

Tochica, what do you think of my actual points against mutley? Calling him a process of elimination suspect implies you haven't looked over my points...

[Tochica]

I had read your post, I meant for myself he is more of a poe suspect even before reading your post. I think your point about his randomized list has some merit. The rest of the points I do not find that compelling - without going to check I don't think he has mentioned anyone so not mentioning pj specificity isn't really a clue given he hasn't offered any other content. As for Varsoon and him being quiet I actually had the impression Varsoon liked him and was saying he is usually lurky regardless of alignment, I think Varsoon had already mentioned he is getting more active mid to late game so the information is there for us to read.

[Egg]

Not mentioning PJ isn't really a point towards the case. I was just looking through ISOs for connections to PJ's and noted he didn't have any.

The Varsoon kill is more an issue because Mutley says he has the impression that Varsoon knows he is a "calculating guy". Basically, he seems worried that Varsoon will catch him later even if he hasn't now.

What about Pj's vote on TheGar when the wagons were TheGar vs Mutley? And Pj's language suggesting he thinks he's basically solidifying a lynch on one over the other?

And I'm not sure if you are a VCA type of player, but do you see a wolf on the Day 2 lynch? Because I don't and mutley being wolf explains that more than enough. (I mean, unless it's Titus but his vote is pretty early so...)

[Tochica]

I can't get much from Pj's vote on thegar. As someone had mentioned Mutley was random wagon at this point, I have the impression Pj was trying to be 'jokey' with his jump on the gar at this point. The speculation pj didn't want to enlarge his buddy's wagon is possibility but it's also possible he saw garg as likelier lynch.

I try to use vca but now thinking about it I mainly been in games where misslynches happened and I usually come from the position 'there is scum voting town', also I think the fact we allow scum to self hammer so early (before everyone gives thoughts how they feel about the given wagon) makes it harder to determine stuff. I don't know if ww was on DrDo, I think the ww probably would like to lynch mafia for town points but I don't have anything to speculate one way or the other. I do see titus as possible ww but it has nothing to do with drdo lynch. Why do you think ww wasn't on day 2 lynch?

[Mutleyddmc]

Where do I seem worried Varsoon will catch me? Varsoon would have caught me day if I was scum. all your points are based on poor assumptions.

Where did I say TSO is scum for having two suspects. I said he is scum cos what he does as scum is weak bus. Like he has done with GNR the last few days he never really pushes his vote. He keeps options open to change easily as he has done today by also naming me and hersch.

[Tochica]

TSO was on Drdo wagon though.

[Mutleyddmc]

yes very late on it?

[Tochica]

yeah he was the -1 vote, do you have any thoughts on who is the ww? Also, why not voting when you have suspects?

[Mutleyddmc]

I like egg for the WW due to the confidence in my flipping WW and then its like auto town win, thats the kind of line I see from scum

don't need to vote right now

[Natirasha]

I like egg for the WW due to the confidence in my flipping WW and then its like auto town win, thats the kind of line I see from scum

don't need to vote right now

Expand on this, please. I have Egg down as "probably dead tomorrow" due to towniness and the werewolf's previous nightkill tactics.

[TheGarantula]

Egg is a fairly solid town read from me. That analysis was solid, though I think Tochica's point regarding the possible "jokiness" of pjovek's vote on me is pretty valid.

Muttley, why do you think GNR is scum?

P-Edit: Yeah, I think the WW is most likely aiming for Masons (ergo town) instead of mafia like I would have expected, though that might have just been because we lynched mafia yesterday.

[Titus]

Positioning on the DrDo wagon is weak comparatively because how fast that wagon went up.

Mutley, that kind of planning is very common for someone like me. I like to think three steps ahead. As long as the WW doesn't kill the masons before the WW dies, we are in a good position.

I find it odd how quickly you post content under the threat of death. Vote stays.