Mini 1484 - Pick Your Partners (Game Over)

[T S O]

ISO yourself.

[Tochica]

Whatever.

[Titus]

ISO yourself.

For future games, I'd say this was scummy. Yet, I know you are almost certain town. I wanted to highlight this for you so you know my likely reaction in the future.

Tochica should be saying that it's pretty bad here as your move essentially says make my case for me and be all defensive. Yet, Tochica didn't realize this which makes TSO's argument stronger ironically.

[T S O]

I am certain town. There's no almost.

But Tochica's stances throughout are screaming Mafia to me.

[Titus]

TSO, the only certain town is a flip IMO. You're close enough where I'd never vote for you but certain means 100%. You're at 99.999%

[Titus]

On a side note, are you sure Tochica cannot be WW? He's rubbed me wierd but I didn't really like him as mafia for some reason. I'll ISO him tonight but I am just not certain.

[T S O]

yeah I am.

I should check Nati just to be certain but Garan-you-HC is what I want in the pool atm.

[Voidedmafia]

ISO yourself.

That's very helpful for those of us who don't see things the way you do.

Tochica should be saying that it's pretty bad here as your move essentially says make my case for me and be all defensive. Yet, Tochica didn't realize this which makes TSO's argument stronger ironically.

Fair point here, though.

DrDo was actually defending both gnr and hc. My dilemma here is whether he was trying to protect hc in the beginning of day two or was he trying to buddy him.

Given that DrD had GNR/myself as a good townread for pretty much every time he mentions GNR, I'd say that it was more akin to buddying that protection.

With HC it's not as direct and more on the side; he doesn't outright state a townread on Haschel (IIRC) but does agree with some of the things he says and seems to have an implied townread on HC. More suspicious to me than an explcit Townread, IMO. (of course, I'm partially talking about my own slot, so grains of salt and whatnot, but still.)

[Titus]

Uck. This post suggests my two mafia reads might not be mafia together. I might have to reread everything.

[Tochica]

ISO yourself.

For future games, I'd say this was scummy. Yet, I know you are almost certain town. I wanted to highlight this for you so you know my likely reaction in the future.

Tochica should be saying that it's pretty bad here as your move essentially says make my case for me and be all defensive. Yet, Tochica didn't realize this which makes TSO's argument stronger ironically.

I am not sure what I didn't realise, but his post was like 'I don't have to explain to you, scum' which is annoying but meh what can I do about it, beg him to work with me, whatever.

Voided, what was the good point?

[T S O]

It's just I don't feel I need to make a case on someone I've called Mafia all game when we're not even lynching Mafia today.

Nati, out of {Titus/Garan/HC}, who do you think is the WW?

[Natirasha]

Not Haschel.

Garantula has nothing going any way, although I am reminded of Pjovek's first vote in the thread...Titus I've been shaky on, but I actually like her responses to my last questions in a weird way. I still don't think HC is a good lynch today considering that the chances of him being Werewolf to me are sub-10%. I know I said voided is the wolf earlier, but upon rereading I don't think that makes much sense, he's much likelier to be mafia.

So, um, it's Titus or Gargantula. If we want to go into Nightkill Analysis, let's set aside Egg & DBK for a moment since I think those kills were more for the skill of the players vs any specific reasons. Varsoon is the one I wanna look at. If Titus is the wolf

she had no legitimate reason to kill Varsoon

--she was his top town read. Galgantula, however, was not on Varsoon's "like" list. I know, I know, >WIFOM, but Nightkill Analysis is very underestimated nowadays and the current prevailing meta is you kill people who threaten you.

If we consider the lists, I can only assume Titus had Varsoon and DBK on the top of her list from the interactions day one & two. Garvantula I cannot find any list claiming, but he is a newer player--it makes more sense for his list to be randomized(and therefore, more likely for Pjovek to be his top pick/wolf partner).

VOTE: Gargantula

[Titus]

Natirasha, I had Varsoon but not DBK at the top of my list. Players I played with previously were put towards the bottom but for Varsoon as I wanted to get insight into him as he's very puzzling to me normally and I want to get a better read on him for future games. Everything else you said, I agree with.

Let's follow up on your nightkill theory... who was Varsoon scumreading?

[Natirasha]

A quick look at his ISO says pretty much only GNR/Voided.

[Voidedmafia]

Isn't it possible Varsoon was a skill kill as well? Or that WW-Titus didn't think that the townread on her was solid enough to risk?

[Natirasha]

Isn't it possible Varsoon was a skill kill as well? Or that WW-Titus didn't think that the townread on her was solid enough to risk?

I dunno, Varsoon was really confident in his Titus read. And Varsoon could be seen as a skill kill, but I don't see why the wolf would value Varsoon's skill over Egg(or me to a lesser degree).

[Titus]

Why is GNR/Voided not WW?

Voided, your trying to stretch the facts to fit a theory instead of having your theory fit the facts. I have played just as many games with DBK and TSO. Killing allies doesn't make sense for scum. This is part of the reason I wouldn't suspect DBK's slot of being WW.

[Natirasha]

Why is GNR/Voided not WW?

Ask TSO this one. I mentioned he could be one last page.

[TheGarantula]

Been skimming the thread; I will make a better post tomorrow.
Natirasha the NK logic would be better if you had reason to think I would actually kill Varsoon for that reason. My first scum game finished recently so you can look at it for meta. Also, my list wasn't randomized.

[Natirasha]

Been skimming the thread; I will make a better post tomorrow.
Natirasha the NK logic would be better if you had reason to think I would actually kill Varsoon for that reason. My first scum game finished recently so you can look at it for meta. Also, my list wasn't randomized.

I agree I still don't see the reason why you would kill Varsoon. But, in the context of the question "Do you think Garantula or Titus is the wolf" you make more sense to kill him.

[Voidedmafia]

Voided, your trying to stretch the facts to fit a theory instead of having your theory fit the facts

If I had a theory in mind when I asked. Each were possibilities, and it's fair to ensure that Nat has at least thought of them.

but I don't see why the wolf would value Varsoon's skill over Egg(or me to a lesser degree).

I see your point on yourself, but I don't think Egg being a mason was that obvious D2 (I could be wrong on this), nor as clearly town (or a universal townread) as he was D3, so I imagine it wasn't as clear-cut a kill. Or possibly our last WW didn't think he was as town as he actually was, and when that was presented to him D3 the WW knew that Egg had to go down.

[IceGuy]

Vote Count

Titus (2): Voidedmafia, Haschel Cedricson

Haschel Cedricson (1): Titus
TheGarantula (1): Natirasha

Not voting (3): T S O, Tochica, TheGarantula

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Deadline is October 4th/October 5th, midnight CEST.

[Tochica]

Isn't it possible Varsoon was a skill kill as well? Or that WW-Titus didn't think that the townread on her was solid enough to risk?

I do not think ww-titus killed varsoon because she felt threatened by him, I think if she killed him it was done as a wifom kill. She even told him not to buddy her, and it always makes sense to do it early and cash in later. At the same time Egg's kill I can see as possible wifom kill to frame titus. As you say these are just possibilities.

Also, I think it was obvious pj interactions with varsoon weren't partner like. I actually find the DKB kill most surprising.

@Nat you said Voided looked less likelier ww upon reread, then when asked you are saying 'ask TSO I said voided was possibility', you also said garg and I are weaker possibilities. It is very bothersome you are willing to agree so quickly with TSO blindly as he actually hasn't offered any arguments why voided or I are not ww.

@Titus how certain exactly are you that HC is mafia. On the previous page I had an impression you actually think he may as well be ww, now you say you completely agree with Nat that he is very unlikely ww.

[Natirasha]

I do not think ww-titus killed varsoon because she felt threatened by him, I think if she killed him it was done as a wifom kill. She even told him not to buddy her, and it always makes sense to do it early and cash in later. At the same time Egg's kill I can see as possible wifom kill to frame titus. As you say these are just possibilities.

See, I would wholeheartedly agree with you on the first point if Titus was, well, not Titus. She's a very analytical player and doesn't tend to go for the WIFOM play, I know Titus would not kill Varsoon in that circumstance--she is not the type to do that. In addition, site meta dictates that WIFOM NKs are ridiculously out of fashion.

On Egg, I'm not sure what you're saying. His last post pretty much outed him as a mason, who as long as they live the werewolf literally cannot win. In addtiion, he was clearly the town leader--and a strong one at that--meaning he made sense to die. But, I digress, I think we're reaching the tipping point of what NKA can provide.

@Nat you said Voided looked less likelier ww upon reread, then when asked you are saying 'ask TSO I said voided was possibility', you also said garg and I are weaker possibilities. It is very bothersome you are willing to agree so quickly with TSO blindly as he actually hasn't offered any arguments why voided or I are not ww.

I've been going back and forth. Wishy-washy, I know. Sorry. This game is hard, because I'm trying to discern who the mafia is and who the wolf is, so there are naturally a lot of red herrings laying around. Also, I didn't really analyze anything until I wrote up #761--sorry.

[T S O]

Oh fuck, there's no way Titus-scum did that.

Ohhh boy.

Why not Haschel? Admittedly he looks Mafia-ish but if you check his ISO it's just rather ..odd, tbh.