Mobile Suit Gundam SEED Mafia - Game Over

[leviathan93]

Nati, I see no way in hell how you can be scum with the way you are acting, but at the same time I have never played with you so I don't know what you are capable of. currently reading you as TOO OUTRAGEOUS TO BE SCUM.

[NachoKoopa]

maybe. still not technically seeing mafia sakura at the moment though. there needs to be more from her before I can decide that. She had a lot more posts in the other game than she currently does now.

I agree.

Are you scum reading me nacho?

Nope. Should I be?

[waynegg]

Hey Nacho...Kanye doesn't wanna work with me. Maybe I'm wrong about him. How about you? Can we kill scum together?

[pieguyn]

your math falls apart when you imply there is a better chance of picking scum from that pool of 3 than simply picking randomly from the entire pool. i can only assume thats what you are implying since theres fuckall point to your statement besides that.

first off, 5/21 = 23.81%.
so there is a better chance. keep in mind how ambiguous the other statement really is, cause there's a 50 whatever chance the set of 3 people we get even has scum in it, and we still don't know which of those people is scum. second off, I wasn't trying to imply that, I was trying to imply Nacho doesn't have town intent.

and certainly if he was only trying to argue with you about math he wouldnt be scumhunting, but im pretty sure hes doing shit besides that? to me it looks like your just kneejerking about being mad you tried to make a mathematical statement thats stupid as fuck.

you missed the point. and again if my math is wrong tell me where it's wrong plz :>

The formula I've been seeing in use for determining number of scum in a nonmultiball game is scumCount = (int)(floor(playerCount / 4)), which comes to the same assumption of 5 scum, but with the simpler math, it means that one out of every four players is scum; a bloc of three in isolation means nothing.

I wasn't trying to figure out the number of mafia. I was trying to figure out, given a random group of 3 people, the probability of any one of those people being scum.

If you want to try to use statistics to scumhunt, name your fourth. But really, don't use statistics to scumhunt, because that analysis means precisely bugger if this is multiball or there's a SK.

where did I try to use statistics to scumhunt?

What motivation would I have as scum to get my math wrong? It seems like something pretty alignment neutral to me unless you suspect that I'm manipulating people with incorrect math or something.

no, I'm not implying you got it wrong on purpose. I'm implying that you're not really analyzing what people are saying, and so you just said DrD's math was wrong just for the sake of saying something, which is scum intent.

then again now kanye did the same effing thing with the math so maybe I'm not looking in the right place orz

[Natirasha]

also. is there a possibility of a mafia tracker?

What prompted this question, leviathan?

[leviathan93]

also. is there a possibility of a mafia tracker?

What prompted this question, leviathan?

didn't someone say they were a tracker? i was wondering if there was such thing as a mafia tracker that that wouldn't necessarily guarantee them as town just for being tracker.

[Natirasha]

I don't think anyone claimed..? I said I was a power role, but never specified what power role.

But, yes, I've personally been a Scum Tracker, so it's a thing that can happen.

[leviathan93]

Hey. Waynegg. Sweet.

Caught your post and have just flicked forward to post this. So now I have a question which occurred to me at the time.

Did you out your ENTIRE scumteam in that one post earlier?

You haven't even given a reason for any of them being town! Just "hey they're town townbloc yo"

And, how in the LORD'S HOLY FUCKING NAME can *I* be playing divide an conquer either as scum or town? Scum don't divide and conquer MASTIN and DEASVAIL, mastin of whom was

voting

deasvail? Probably based on picking up my own tell on des? Because otherwise he hasn't explained it? His gutread?

Town are awesome dividing and conquering scum - YEY. And picking up on stupid troll tells YEY.

VOTE: waynegg

yeah. this prompted it.

My suit has 1-shot tracker, trump that BEATCH.

[leviathan93]

^^^^that prompted it.

[Natirasha]

Oh. Talah.

That's just normal talah, sadly.

[waynegg]

So Matias.. how do you like the chances of scumMastin having voted a scumbuddy in his first 'serious vote' of the game?

@mastin - do you think deasvail's vote on dolittle had a lot of meat on it? I wouldn't have bothered voting dv until she offered a reason for it. But I'm open to suggestion.

The intent here doesn't look like you're trying to divide and conquer Mastin and Deasvail, but it does look like you're trying to divide and conquer. There's no town motivation at all.

[waynegg]

To be specific, you're playing Matias against Mastin against deasvail against Doolittle.

[Kdub]

Day 1 - Vote Count #7

DrDolittle (0)

-

kanyeknowsbest (0)

-

Belisarius (2)

- Kalimar, DrDolittle

waynegg (2)

- Belisarius, talah

pieguyn (0)

-

AGar (0)

-

PeregrineV (0)

-

leviathan93 (0)

-

Kise (0)

-

Empking (1)

- dopog

Majiffy (1)

- DeasVail

dopog (0)

-

Sakura Hana (3)

- Matias, kanyeknowsbest, Empking

NachoKoopa (1)

- pieguyn

DeasVail (1)

- mastin2

Matias (1)

- leviathan93

Mac (0)

-

talah (1)

- waynegg

Natirasha (2)

- Natirasha, PeregrineV

mastin2 (2)

- Sakura Hana, NachoKoopa

Kalimar (0)

-

No lynch (0)

-

Not voting (4)

- AGar, Kise, Majiffy, Mac

21 votes available
11 votes needed to lynch

V/LA: Mac (9/30), Sakura Hana (9/30), Kalimar (10/2)

Deadline: (expired on 2013-10-18 12:44:27)

[AGar]

Hey. Waynegg. Sweet.

Caught your post and have just flicked forward to post this. So now I have a question which occurred to me at the time.

Did you out your ENTIRE scumteam in that one post earlier?

You haven't even given a reason for any of them being town! Just "hey they're town townbloc yo"

And, how in the LORD'S HOLY FUCKING NAME can *I* be playing divide an conquer either as scum or town? Scum don't divide and conquer MASTIN and DEASVAIL, mastin of whom was

voting

deasvail? Probably based on picking up my own tell on des? Because otherwise he hasn't explained it? His gutread?

Town are awesome dividing and conquering scum - YEY. And picking up on stupid troll tells YEY.

VOTE: waynegg

My suit has 1-shot tracker, trump that BEATCH.

What in the literal fuck is this? Did you just claim because you

didn't like a players town reads? Because they might be gut-based?

Holy. Shit.

This is unbelievable.

---

DrDoolittle is tempting. He's like a bad DMSIS. Which is almost impressive.
leviathan has the tinfoil, and that's reminiscent of prior games if I'm recalling correctly.

mastin, plz be to walling, I can read you better that way. This one-liner thing ain't your schtick, and it's making it an incredibly awful time trying to get a handle on you.

VOTE: Majiffy

diescumdie, threats of hanging, etc

[waynegg]

What in the literal fuck is this? Did you just claim because you

didn't like a players town reads? Because they might be gut-based?

Holy. Shit.

This is unbelievable.

...and because my vote resides on him

[talah]

The intent here doesn't look like you're trying to divide and conquer Mastin and Deasvail, but it does look like you're trying to divide and conquer. There's no town motivation at all.

Sure there's town motivation. I'm town. I'm quite happy to scream it into your face for however long it takes you to understand.

To be specific, you're playing Matias against Mastin against deasvail against Doolittle.

Um, YEAH. That's an aspect of my scumhunting, I like to have a couple of irons in the fire, I like asking players about other players so I can see if they're uncomfortable responding.

What in the literal fuck is this? Did you just claim because you

didn't like a players town reads? Because they might be gut-based?

Holy. Shit.

This is unbelievable.

...and because my vote resides on him

Yup. You're going to see me absolutely ignoring "classic" scumtells a lot in this game. I suggest you get used to it.

Agar - what's with your outrage at me claiming a pretty weak PR? Are you.. Going to.. *snicker* ..suggest I should be POLICEH LENCHED?

Back to you Weg - I'll let you in on my gameplan.
1) I pop in from time to time either to heavily OMGUS on people attacking me or attack weak logic and ambiguous statements
2) I act in an obvious-town manner
3) I vote freely and consistently to run wagons up, but choose *actual* lynch-wagons in consultation with my townreads
3) I force scum to decide whether they're going to try to lynch me, or nightkill me

Now the only couple of things I'm going to try to do a bit differently based on experience, is be *slightly* less antagonistic (or at least, all things in moderation) and also to avoid tunnelling if I can as it never really works out well for me.

So there you go. I'm telegraphing my intentions and my future gameplay. I'm being perfectly honest. Presumably you have a townread on me now. Pity I don't have one on you, nullsie.

[pieguyn]

so your vote on Sakura was serious? afaik you just threw it on there with nothing else whatsoever

That wasn't what I was trying to say at all.

To answer your second question: I was expressing an opinion.

you questioning her implies it's a serious vote

the fact that your vote is still on her, combined with you accusing someone for "injuring the Sakura" wagon, implies it's a serious vote

however, now you're implying it's not?

explain your vote on Sakura plz

[NachoKoopa]

Hey Nacho...Kanye doesn't wanna work with me. Maybe I'm wrong about him. How about you? Can we kill scum together?

Sure. Let's start with mastin!

and so you just said DrD's math was wrong just for the sake of saying something, which is scum intent.

"Pretty likely" is phrasing that makes it seem like it might be worth going after someone because they are in that group of 3. That isn't the case.

[AGar]

Agar - what's with your outrage at me claiming a pretty weak PR? Are you.. Going to.. *snicker* ..suggest I should be POLICEH LENCHED?

No, I was in actual disbelief that someone could be so petty and imbecilic to claim because they had their panties in a wad about not being included in some troll's townblock.

I'm not going to suggest you be policy lynched, I'm going to recommend the entirety of the game ignore you for the rest of the day. You clearly have no logical thought processes going on, so you're not going to help us find scum. If you are alive tomorrow, we can re-evaluate, but in the meantime you are beyond useless.

[kanyeknowsbest]

heres an aside that has absolutely fuck all to do with playing the game Mafia and catching scum players in said game:

your math falls apart when you imply there is a better chance of picking scum from that pool of 3 than simply picking randomly from the entire pool. i can only assume thats what you are implying since theres fuckall point to your statement besides that.

first off, 5/21 = 23.81%.
so there is a better chance. keep in mind how ambiguous the other statement really is, cause there's a 50 whatever chance the set of 3 people we get even has scum in it, and we still don't know which of those people is scum. second off, I wasn't trying to imply that, I was trying to imply Nacho doesn't have town intent.

q: are you literally 17 years old just starting a year of AP (that means its college level and you are smartlmao) Statistics? because thats the vibe im getting.

randomly choosing from the entire pool is 5/21 = 23.81%

when you select your pool of 3 you have a 42% chance of zero scum, 45.11% of exactly 1 scum, 12.03% of exactly 2 scum and 0.75 chance of all 3 being scum.
we now have to randomly select one of those players to lynch! that means we have a 0% chance of selecting scum if there are zero scum in our pool of 3, 15.03% of having exactly one scum in the pool and picking them (45.11*1/3 = 15.03%), 8.02% of there being 2 scum and picking them (12.03*2/3 = 8.02%) and a .75 (.75*1 = .75%) chance of there being 3 scum. add those together and you get *gasp* a 23.81% chance of selecting 3 players and then selecting one player from that group and having it be scum. anmazing, isnt math great please learn how to apply math before you start trying to draw conclusions based on it.

[kanyeknowsbest]

majiffy is a good vote youre a good person agar i hiope you will inject some much needed sense in2 this game tyvm.: ]

[kanyeknowsbest]

nacho: do you believe mastin to be the type to try out a fresh new approach in a scum game?

[Belisarius]

I think it's pretty likely this is multifaction based on my role PM

Disregard this, it was a reading fail on my part.

In other news, Kanye is town.

[pieguyn]

when you select your pool of 3 you have a 42% chance of zero scum, 45.11% of exactly 1 scum, 12.03% of exactly 2 scum and 0.75 chance of all 3 being scum.
we now have to randomly select one of those players to lynch! that means we have a 0% chance of selecting scum if there are zero scum in our pool of 3, 15.03% of having exactly one scum in the pool and picking them (45.11*1/3 = 15.03%), 8.02% of there being 2 scum and picking them (12.03*2/3 = 8.02%) and a .75 (.75*1 = .75%) chance of there being 3 scum. add those together and you get *gasp* a 23.81% chance of selecting 3 players and then selecting one player from that group and having it be scum. anmazing, isnt math great please learn how to apply math before you start trying to draw conclusions based on it.

yeah that's correct, but that's not what we were talking about

I never said anything about picking a random group of 3 people being a viable scumhunting method. what I posted was literally just the odds a random group of 3 people had at least 1 mafia in it. I even said how ambiguous that statement really is in my other post and that it's completely not viable for scumhunting cause as you said we still don't know which one in the group is scum. also, I never actually tried to use these probabilities to scumhunt. I already said what I was trying to do with this whole idea so go back and read it plz.

tl;dr: I think this whole thing was just a misunderstanding about what exactly we were trying to do and not the math itself.

"Pretty likely" is phrasing that makes it seem like it might be worth going after someone because they are in that group of 3. That isn't the case.

ok I'm fine with that for now

brb reading thread again

[kanyeknowsbest]

why the fuck would you even bring it up then? it servers zero point whatsoever.