Mafia 56: Hardcore Street - Game over!

[milkman]

Olio, and maybe cheesefan or Zindaras are the scum. I have my doubts about cheesefan, by the way Zindaras pushed Ancalagon to unvote. Then again cheesefan is nowhere to be seen.

In what way do you have doubts about Cheesefan? As in "thinking he could be town" or "thinking he could be scum"?

I see how that's kind of confusing, I should rephrase:

"Olio has to be scum, and the other scum is Zindaras or Cheesefan. atm I'm leading toward zindaras because he pushed ancalagon to unvote, but I could also see him being town and trying to get a safer look at the game.

Cheesefan is also lurking massively, so I don't have a great picture of him."

something like that.

After rewriting that, I'd like to say my reasoning is kind of faulty there. All I really know is:

Olio has to be scum, and the other scum is Zindaras or Cheesefan.

I'm also convinced that Ancalagon is town.

[spectrumvoid]

~N9V~ replaces cheesefan.

Corrected Vote Count

milkman: 2 (olio, irrumator)
olio: 2 (milkman, canucklehead1)
7 alive, 4 to lynch!

[~N9V~]

Hmm, looks like I've got a lot to read back on...

[Zindaras]

So because I pushed Ancalagon to unvote I'm scum? That's a bit odd, don't you think?

[milkman]

So because I pushed Ancalagon to unvote I'm scum? That's a bit odd, don't you think?

Well, yeah. I already said that.

After rewriting that,

I'd like to say my reasoning is kind of faulty there

. All I really know is:

Olio has to be scum, and the other scum is Zindaras or Cheesefan.

I'm also convinced that Ancalagon is town.

[Canucklehead17]

Alright, alright, hang on here. We need to figure out what we're thinking before we go much further. One of my biggest questions is:

How many scum are left??

This game began with 14 players. The first post says "Town. Cop. Doc. Mafia." So I think we can assume that those are the ONLY roles in this game.

14 players - Doc and Cop = 12 remaining players. I think 4 scum players is the best guess, cause 5 scummers would make it 5 scum vs. 7 regular townies + 2 power roles. That seems a bit too much for scum, especially considering the non-reveal of this game.

So let's assume there are four scum. Twito was most definitely scum. He was confirmed scum by both "cops". One of them is obviously his scumbuddy who would know he was scum, the other got a guilty result upon investigation.

That brings us down to 3 scum, and these players:

ShadowLurker
creampuffeater
rajrhcpfreak
Battle Mage
Canucklehead17
Olio
Irrumator
Mastermind of Sin
cheesefan
milkman
kinkster
Ancalagon
Zindaras

Obviously those who were night-killed are not scum. This leaves us with:

ShadowLurker
Battle Mage
Canucklehead17
Olio
Irrumator
cheesefan
milkman
Ancalagon
Zindaras

Three of these players were/are scum. My personal bet is that Battle Mage was one of them, and he has been lynched. I believe that Olio is lying, and here is my reasoning behind that:

He claimed cop in hopes that the real cop had already been killed off. He got unlucky though...luckily for us. I would say he's scum #2 of the three.

I've come to believe as well that the third scum player is still alive, and I think it is Zindaras. Zindy automatically discounted milkman's counter-claim without giving it any thought or asking any questions. It seems to me like a quick try at squelching any resistance to his buddies false claim.

As one final factor, I think it would be helpful if the doctor claimed to help narrow down the list of suspects. Consider the doc's role claimed, as

I am the doctor

Cheesefan's role, now given to N9V has been replaced four times now. This gives me the feeling that it's a townie role, and that the players are getting bored with it. This makes me give N9V the benefit of the doubt without his even posting anything, though I would like to hear from him.

Irrumator has seemed pro-town to me all along, never had any scumvibes from him at all. Plus he's been put as innocent by both claimed cops.

That leaves Ancalagon. Nothing to suggest either way with him, and I believe he is town, based on my thoughts of the others. SO, my list:

Olio - False cop claim, scum
Canucklehead17 - Doc claim
Irrumator - Townie, confirmed by both cops
N9V - Townie by virtue of unpopular role
Milkman - Cop claim, I believe
Ancalagon - Believe he's townie
Zindaras - Scum, trying to support Olio's false claim.

*sits back exhausted*

So there you have it, that's how I see things.

[olio]

Why didn't you list who you have protected so far?

[olio]

Your slip was following:
You said that I'm lying about you being scum when I hadn't yet said that I think you're scum. I said that between Milkman, Cheesefan and you, Milkman and you are scummier.

I think you're gambitting with the doctor claim as you see your situation desperate. Your reasoning for me coming out is crap. You have also failed yet to address why do you think Milkman is a cop instead of me? You just jumped in with the "Olio is liar because he says I'm scum" when I hadn't said that.

Furthermore, what is your reasoning that Ancalagon is town? Same question to milkman.

[Zindaras]

What a pile of steaming poo.

Why the hell would there be 4 scum in a 14-player game? In a normal set-up, 25% scum is advised. 4 scum would be a lot higher. The fact that it is a non-reveal game is only in favour of the Mafia.

No, there were only three scumbags.

Your "case" against me is pretty funny, too. Irrumator's done pretty much the exact same thing as I have (vote milkman, not ask questions), but he's confirmed as town in your book.

I don't see a reason to buy a doc claim when all it says is "lolguyz i'm the doc".

Your reasons for saying N9V is town are also tangential. Replacements do not make people more likely to be town. Glork had to be replaced due to busy schedule (if I'm correct), Cheesefan disappeared from the site, and I do believe the same happened to Maximus.

[~N9V~]

Well, it was obvious that Twito was scum. Now the question is, are the 'cops' telling the truth. It is obvious that one of them is the cop, and the other one scum, or their both scum, trying to confuse the town. The problem is that we don't know who had what role.

Canucklehead, who did you protect everynight, and why?

Sorry, I have only read through the first two days, and I'm only doing a breif post. I've got lots of homework. I will post my full analysis tonight, or tommorow.

[Canucklehead17]

Listen, call it whatever you want, but the only two people killing my claim are the two I think are scum. Coincidence?

As for my choices:

N0: Olio(Ironically enough)
N1: CPE
N2: Milkman
N3: Ancalagon

N0 was totally random of course, and after that I've tried to do my best are picking a pro-town player to choose. You can imagine who I'll be protecting tonight...

[Canucklehead17]

I don't see a reason to buy a doc claim when all it says is "lolguyz i'm the doc".

LOL, you know that IS funny. Except I said I was claiming to help everyone narrow down their list of suspects, not just to claim for the fun of it..."lolguyz i'm the doc" We need as little confusion here as possible.

[Zindaras]

Why the hell should we believe you? The doc went unclaimed for ages.

The fact that no one counterclaims you doesn't make you the doc

.

MoS, SL, Raj, cpe, kinkster, Canuck, olio, irrumator, cheesefan (N9V now, I believe), milkman, Ancalagon, Zindaras.
Scratch away olio, milkman and you. It's more than 50% chance that the doc was already dead, even not taking into account the fact that because the role went unclaimed, the chance that the role is still in the game is minimal.

[Canucklehead17]

Why the hell should we believe you? The doc went unclaimed for ages.

The fact that no one counterclaims you doesn't make you the doc

.

You think I don't know that?! I basically said the EXACT same thing about Olio claiming cop. Yet you refuse to look elsewhere, giving all the glory to Olio's claim and not taking a peek at milkman. You're POSITIVE he's the cop?!?! How hypocritical can you get?

I've been suspicious of you for a day or two anyway, and your support of Olio only makes me suspect you and him all the more. I think Olio took a gamble, got burned, and now you're trying to help him sweep the real cop under the rug.

[Zindaras]

Hey, and what did Zindie say?

Sweeeet.

Except if you're lying.

I

did

take a look at the validity of milkman's claim. See Post 311, 325. I've reread the entire thing.

You avoided posting after olio's claim (and most definitely didn't say what you just said you said after olio claimed Cop), and so when milkman comes in and counterclaims, you can safely defend him without looking like you changed your mind. Also, you apparently thought that the liar had to be olio, "naturally", without giving any reasons. Olio could still be the real cop, even assuming you are town. I already pointed that out.

[Canucklehead17]

Hey, and what did Zindie say?

Sweeeet.

Except if you're lying.

I

did

take a look at the validity of milkman's claim. See Post 311, 325. I've reread the entire thing.

You avoided posting after olio's claim (and most definitely didn't say what you just said you said after olio claimed Cop), and so when milkman comes in and counterclaims, you can safely defend him without looking like you changed your mind. Also, you apparently thought that the liar had to be olio, "naturally", without giving any reasons. Olio could still be the real cop, even assuming you are town. I already pointed that out.

Ok, granted, you did look at milkman's claim. All I remembered was your initial post that said "Zindy no buy" and you voted. However you did unvote and review later on. Maybe scum realizing he's being too anxious?

And I never avoided posting after olio's claim. I have a new job(which I stated in my first post after many days, and both cop claims), and I rarely get to come on for long. And I said "naturally" because I thought he was calling me scum. However, he simply listed me amongst the "only possible people who could be scum".

I still think Olio is false-claiming. My line of thought, once again, is thus:

Olio false-claims hoping that the real cop is already dead.
Milkman counter-claims, throwing a wrench into Olio's plan.
Zindy immediately votes milkman to throw suspicion on his counter-claim, then realizes he was too anxious, unvotes, comes up with some reasons for voting milkman, then re-votes.
Canucklehead(me) realizes that the more claimed roles we have, the better chance of nabbing scum with a smaller list of suspects. He claims his role(doctor), stating who he thinks are scum. He's right, and Zindy and Olio get over-aggressive in a hurry.

[Zindaras]

Ok, granted, you did look at milkman's claim. All I remembered was your initial post that said "Zindy no buy" and you voted. However you did unvote and review later on. Maybe scum realizing he's being too anxious?

Or maybe town realizing that he shouldn't speedlynch.

And I never avoided posting after olio's claim. I have a new job(which I stated in my first post after many days, and both cop claims), and I rarely get to come on for long.

Yet you did not, as you said you did, state that the absence of a counter-claim does not mean that Olio is talking the truth, as you said you did, and as I did.

Canucklehead(me) realizes that the more claimed roles we have, the better chance of nabbing scum with a smaller list of suspects.

Your claim does not narrow down the list of suspects

. It was not something the real doc would do.

He claims his role(doctor), stating who he thinks are scum. He's right, and Zindy and Olio get over-aggressive in a hurry.

Over-aggressive? Who's been pushing for olio's death? Who never even considered that olio could possibly be talking the truth? That's you right there.

[Canucklehead17]

Or maybe town realizing that he shouldn't speedlynch.

Sure, that could be said. But I don't buy it.

Yet you did not, as you said you did, state that the absence of a counter-claim does not mean that Olio is talking the truth, as you said you did, and as I did.

Um, I'm being serious as a heartattack right now. I have no idea what you just said...

Your claim does not narrow down the list of suspects.

It was not something the real doc would do.

Says you. I really think my claim helps narrow down the suspects. Only problem is, the only person posting right now is scummy, and of course that person wouldn't "believe" a genuine doc claim. This is ridiculous.

Over-aggressive? Who's been pushing for olio's death? Who never even considered that olio could possibly be talking the truth? That's you right there.

Again, I think you got excited about killing milkman and then decided to back off before people got on to you. Yes, I've been pushing for Olio's death cause

that's who I think is the false-claimer

. I know you're gonna say you think milkman is the false-claimer, so we're at an impasse. Also, I did consider Olio's claim. I considered both in a post which I considered both cop claims and then came to a conclusion. I believe it's on page 13.

[Zindaras]

Sure, that could be said. But I don't buy it.

Well, if you're simply going to say "I don't buy it" to anything disproving your train of thought, you're always going to be right.

Um, I'm being serious as a heartattack right now. I have no idea what you just said...

Why the hell should we believe you? The doc went unclaimed for ages.

The fact that no one counterclaims you doesn't make you the doc

.

You think I don't know that?! I basically said the EXACT same thing about Olio claiming cop.

As I said, you didn't say that.

Says you. I really think my claim helps narrow down the suspects.

And how does it do that?

Only problem is, the only person posting right now is scummy, and of course that person wouldn't "believe" a genuine doc claim. This is ridiculous.

No sane townie would immediately believe a doc claim at this stage in the game.

Again, I think you got excited about killing milkman and then decided to back off before people got on to you. Yes, I've been pushing for Olio's death cause

that's who I think is the false-claimer

. I know you're gonna say you think milkman is the false-claimer, so we're at an impasse. Also, I did consider Olio's claim. I considered both in a post which I considered both cop claims and then came to a conclusion. I believe it's on page 13.

I see you point out your own hypocricy.

Also, your entire train of thought for saying that olio's the fake claimer relies purely on me being scum.

[olio]

Milkman, Canuckle; you have yet to answer why you think N9V is townie.

Canuckle, why do you believe Milkman's claim over mine? Because he has you pegged townie and I don't? Also, which one you think is more probable:
Scum coming out as a cop in the beginning of the day when there are no votes
or
Scum counter-claiming cop once cop has voted that scum

[Ancalagon]

Hmmm... olio has a point.

[milkman]

Milkman, Canuckle; you have yet to answer why you think N9V is townie.

!

Olio has to be scum, and the other scum is Zindaras or Cheesefan.

Canuckle, why do you believe Milkman's claim over mine? Because he has you pegged townie and I don't? Also, which one you think is more probable:
Scum coming out as a cop in the beginning of the day when there are no votes
or
Scum counter-claiming cop once cop has voted that scum

Nice crap logic there. See: Appeal to probability


Or I'll just quote it.

The appeal to probability is a logical fallacy, often used in conjunction with other fallacies. It assumes that because something could happen, it is inevitable that it will happen. This is flawed logic, regardless of the likelihood of the event in question.

The fallacy is often used to exploit paranoia.

I Think I caught you.

[Canucklehead17]

Well, if you're simply going to say "I don't buy it" to anything disproving your train of thought, you're always going to be right.

You hardly

disproved

my train of thought. You gave another option, one you'd LIKE me to believe, but I don't.

As I said, you didn't say that.

You're right, I thought I had posted that in my "train of thought" post, when I first voted Olio.

And how does it do that?

Oh, silly me. I thought that I may have earned enough credit as townie in the lynchings of sure scum in Twito and BM that someone may have actually, you know, BELIEVED me.

No sane townie would immediately believe a doc claim at this stage in the game.

I know you're hoping that anyway.

Also, your entire train of thought for saying that olio's the fake claimer relies purely on me being scum.

Not completely. I was already leaning towards voting Olio when I had my "fifth and final thought" in my train of thought post. Call it a gut feeling, but I thought it would be extremely smart of the mafia to false-claim cop and go out on a limb hoping the real cop was already dead. It's ingenious really, cause it throws suspicion all over the place.

Plus, if no sane townie would believe a doc claim at this stage, why should that same sane townie believe a cop claim, hmm?

Milkman, Canuckle; you have yet to answer why you think N9V is townie.

I did answer that. You may think it's bad logic, but here it is again:

I think max # of scum is 4. I think Twito and BM were scum. I think you and Zindy are scum. This equals four. PLUS, the fact that N9V's role has been replaced four times, which gives me the

impression

that it is an unpopular role...a townie role.

Canuckle, why do you believe Milkman's claim over mine? Because he has you pegged townie and I don't? Also, which one you think is more probable:
Scum coming out as a cop in the beginning of the day when there are no votes
or
Scum counter-claiming cop once cop has voted that scum

I believe milkman's claim over yours because of reasons I've already posted 2 million times.

1. I think it would be a brilliant play as scum to claim cop in a non-reveal with minimal players left.

2. Zindy came flying in to support you, then casually backed away just for a day or two, and then came back to support you once again. Translation: Scum protecting scum, realizing he's a bit overzealous, takes a chill pill, then starts defense again at a slower rate.

And in answer to your question: I think scum claiming before anyone votes is brilliant, as it is doing just what you want, throwing suspicion all over the place. ESPECIALLY in a non-reveal game, where we would have no idea if the cop was dead or not.

I also think scum counter-claiming after being voted is stupid, because it would be overreacting by the scum.

[irrumator]

Im sorry for lurking, be back to posting a bit more on monday.

To me , i think olio is for once telling the truth. The statistical odds of actually going after the real cop in a simple game like this are low, and the canuckle milkman action smells really really fishy.

I´m sorry, but to me those 2 seem almost certainly scum, but id like to start with milkman.

[Zindaras]

You hardly

disproved

my train of thought. You gave another option, one you'd LIKE me to believe, but I don't.

And you hardly disproved my train of thought or gave anyone any reason to believe yours.

Oh, silly me. I thought that I may have earned enough credit as townie in the lynchings of sure scum in Twito and BM that someone may have actually, you know, BELIEVED me.

Oh, so now BM is scum too? Where's your proof for that?

Regarding Twito...I voted Twito. Milkman voted Twito. Olio voted Twito. Everyone and their mother voted Twito.

Also, if you are so sure that BM is scum, you shouldn't be saying that I am scum. A simple understanding of balance dictates that there is only 3 scum in this game.

I know you're hoping that anyway.

I see that instead of rebutting my points, you're simply going for attacks against the person.

Not completely. I was already leaning towards voting Olio when I had my "fifth and final thought" in my train of thought post. Call it a gut feeling, but I thought it would be extremely smart of the mafia to false-claim cop and go out on a limb hoping the real cop was already dead. It's ingenious really, cause it throws suspicion all over the place.

And it would also be extremely smart of the real cop to claim at that point. And it would also be pretty intelligent for the Mafia to counter-claim the real cop.

Plus, if no sane townie would believe a doc claim at this stage, why should that same sane townie believe a cop claim, hmm?

Hey, and what did Zindie say?

Sweeeet.

Except if you're lying.

I did answer that. You may think it's bad logic, but here it is again:

I think max # of scum is 4. I think Twito and BM were scum. I think you and Zindy are scum. This equals four.

As I said, the max amount of scum is 3.

PLUS, the fact that N9V's role has been replaced four times, which gives me the

impression

that it is an unpopular role...a townie role.

Which is crap. For one, Cheesefan has apparently left the site and is getting replaced everywhere. For two, as far as I know, the same goes for Maximus. For three, Glork has talked much about trying to get his amount of games down. All the replacements are explainable.

Also, being replaced is

no

indicator for being scum. Read this thread.