You're right I'm sorry. It was two in the morning when I made that post right after speed reading the whole thread. I need to give your ISO a proper look through and reevaluate my opinion of you.
"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."
Read over beastcharizard again. He is really constant throughout the game, he asks a lot of questions but doesn't really put anything of his own forward, and also he has a few empty posts telling others to post more despite doing nothing else. The questioning and telling people to post more, is stuff easily faked by scum to appear town. He has nothing that really sticks out as scum or town, so I have him as null leaning town.
Beast who is your top town read and why? Same goes for scum.
This post by beast sticks out to me the most. He doesn't really mention NS and without reason says he is town and that Venrob should move his vote.
I also don't like that voted to hurt YKV when one of the things he has talked about most this game and his reason for voting the person he is currently voting is because he hates dictating PRs.
I have a reason for why this might be but will hold off until beast gives his answer. Unless people have a problem with that.
"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."
Edited list will go from most town to most scum.
Town
Egg
Nic Cage
EspeciallyTheLies
Hot Cheetos
YellowKingValley
Null
beastcharizard
Yes Yes Yes
Hermy
Scum
Venrob
notscience
"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."
ns: He is being super helpful. I don't think I have ever seen him play like this before. He isn't trolling at all. I know he is known for trolling and from my experience being dumb when he is town but there is no scum motivation in his posts. He is genuinely scum hunting and asking questions. He is playing like picture perfect town in my eyes.
Top scum read:
ETL: I really don't like how they are trying to tell PRs what to do. They just seem to be trying to tell everyone what to do like they know everything in the game already. The seems to be a little aggressive when ever someone says they might be scum. They told me not to be stupid and then voted ns when he said he was scum.
In post 769, NicCage wrote:Ns had correctly guessed one of the heads of HC. And he's referred to them as nacho baezu a couple times. So... what do you mean by metaing?
And PhD I was thinking vote Hermy. I see that you won't want to lynch Egg, but I would go for that too
He never correctly guesses any. NS only "guessed" that HC is hydra in #150.
Going to be honest about NS I've played one game with them before and don't like them for personal reasons I also can't read them at all. I spent the whole game calling them scum and they turned out to be town so I do take my own opinion of NS with a grain of salt and am aware it's extremely bias. Can you please show me how NS is town?
I see your points on ETL just don't agree with them. I do think that if we are to tell PRs what to do it should only be the vig since we can turn that into a second lynch. I just don't think ETL is coming from a scummy point of view and that its scum motivated. I also agree with his counter vote on NS as NS's original vote sucked. I do not condone people insulting other players but I don't think its a scum tell just a frustrated player tell.
@Egg I'll get back to you latter I'm writing this at school and don't have time.
"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."
I admit I suck at reading vibes. Because I have played too much with good liars, who are able to fake vibes. Even VCA and NK. Messed up my reads permanently. The only reliable method I have left is by intentions. I don't know if NS trying new meta, but his intentions in this game are anti-town / scum.
Actually I don't like NS's choice of questions too. Initiates discussion but helps scum to rolefish. But town sometimes make such mistakes.
Oh, ask NS to choose our next lynch target tomorrow. So if he actually flipped town, he can have a say on tomorrow's target.
His D2 bothers me. First of all he's involved in the whole lynching me thing, but he doesn't really take a solid stance in terms of saying "no we aren't doing this." What he does say is 434 and
In post 481, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Egg where do you get the idea that this is a policy lynch? We're not lynching him for reasons beyond his game-play and involvement therein.
You guys were saying either he's scum or he's town who is gonna fuck up LYLO. The definition of a policy lynch is lynching someone while accepting that they might be town because their town play could be detrimental to the town. I fail to see the difference.
As for optimal play: yeah, let's lynch someone who is confirmed town unless one specific player (Nic) is scum without that player's flip. Again, I fail to see how that makes any sense at all.
Look. I'm against a policy lynch on Day 2 after a Day 1 mislynch. So the only way Yellow is an option is if we think he is scum. The only way he can be scum is if Nic is also scum. A Yellow flip gives no info on Nic. A Nic town flip clears Yellow. If we go with the conspiracy theory that Nic and Yellow are both scum, we are lynching Nic first. Even that I don't want to do unless we get four PR claims because if we get three, that clears Nic and Yellow 100%.
Fuck it. If Nic or Yellow is getting lynched today, i'd rather just massclaim right now. So there's my stance. We either massclaim or we leave Nic and Yellow alone today.
Fuck this town is stupid. And I thought notscience at least had potential. Guess I was wrong there.
This is ridiculous.
This could go either way, but I think he would have objected stronger rather than suggesting a massclaim if he really thought that was something we shouldn't do.
In post 394, Egg wrote:Ok so yellow is confirmed town unless nic flips scum at some point.
Nic is not an option for a lynch today. Even if you think he's scum, wait. I won't go into why.
I still have relatively strong town reads on notscience, BK, and venrob.
I lean town on hermy and hot cheetos.
That leaves beast, yes, and mnem. I probably have to rethink some of my town reads. But beast is still the lynch I prefer today.
Vote BeastCharizard
A bigger issue is his beast read. 394 Here he votes without giving reasons 418 Then he takes it back because I guess his wagon analysis wasn't good enough? I'm not really sure. Anyway, he never pushes beast again, or unvotes, untillll
In post 604, Egg wrote:I'm already on the lead wagon. The one that Banaki was lynched in favor of yesterday. And Banaki was town. And so was one of the leader's of the BeastCharizard wagon who died at night. I won't switch unless there is no choice. Right now, there's still hope for lynching scum.
Which is weird as hell, right? I mean he was unsure about it for wagon analysis reasons earlier, nothing happens, and now all of a sudden he's confident. There's more to this but I'm bored and I'm gonna do it the slightly lazy way.
In post 627, Egg wrote:Strong gut. The counterwagon becoming a mislynch. The baldeagle NK. And I'll admit to some PoE because I have so many town reads.
I don't understand what you mean by the counterwagon becoming a mislynch.
In what way do you believe that the BE NK is connected to beast?
Seems like you don't put a lot of stock into your townreads though, so I'm not sure why you'd claim to use PoE. After all, NS was a townread, who you're now willing to lynch.
In post 619, Egg wrote:And the only thing I see against notscience is his dumb policy lynch push that I can see him doing as either alignment.
It's super weird that you would agree to lynch someone that you don't see anything against. Normal people don't want to vote their townreads at all, much less talk about it 7 days ahead of the deadline. So, what's up with that?
VOTE: Egg
How excited would you have been if you had actually gotten everyone to massclaim?
Here's my big problem with Egg, his agreeing to lynch ns, who was a townread. You should read that whole thing.
And then lots of stuff where I question him on his beast read.
In post 628, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Egg give me an update please, I'm a little behind. You're like my only town read.
I think all you missed was yellow trying to get me to switch to notscience and me trying to get him to switch to beastcharizard instead.
No I saw
Nic I mean the fact that we almost lynched beastcharizard and the guy we lynched instead flipped town. And the fact that baldeagle was one of the main people pushing beastcharizard and is now dead.
Right, well the bana lynch was at least partially my doing, plus others. Beast wasn't in on it. Soo. Which scum did it then? Notice it's not mne or YYY, who are currently your only scumreads. I know NK analysis is weak normally, so let's not dwell on this, but BK was pushing beast just as hard. I think it's silly to think that BE died because he was a threat to beast.
You misread on notscience. I would much rather lynch beastcharizard but if it came down to notscience or no lynch, I'll take the lynch any day so that's why i'd be willing to switch if I had to.
Right. This doesn't change the fact that you are offering to lynch a
townread
over a scumread, 7 days ahead of the deadline. That's an unnecessary level of compromising right now, especially since you could still easily get your way.
The massclaim is something I only wanted if we were being dumb enough to lynch you or yellow.
In post 641, Egg wrote:Well I should have done so already but I'm looking at that lynching wagon and either you (Nic) are scum which I haven't ruled out or I'm wrong about either Hermy or Notscience. And it's entirely possible that two of these three are scum.
And as I look at it, that first wagon on you (still Nic) shows that you or Hermy is probably scum because Yellow is only scum if you are, I know I'm town, baldeagle was town, and ban was town. So that only leaves hermy as possible scum on that wagon.
As for the NK, why wouldn't scum kill someone who looked town and almost got them lynched? And don't give me "because that's too obvious" if you don't think anyone should be looking at NKs to begin with. I don't think it's nearly as weak as you are saying.
I did learn something though. There's scum in Nic/Hermy. Lol that's gonna look so bad right after Notscience said I'm scum with Hermy but I want the opinion out there if I'm not alive tomorrow because wagon analysis can be strong as fuck and I know there is at least one player in this game who knows that.
In post 642, NicCage wrote:I'm just saying that there's really no strong evidence to support your nk analysis and you shouldn't be using it as evidence.
So are you able to draw any connection between myself, Ns, or Hermy and beast?
In post 653, Egg wrote:As for connections, no. I don't need connections to call people scum. Nobody has flipped scum yet. I still think lynching you is off the table because of your claim. Notscience and Hermy have looked town to me. I just might have to admit I was wrong. Beastcharizard is my consistant scum read who I am confident is scum. I want to lynch him today and figure out the rest tomorrow when we have more info.
The point I was trying to make is that his beast scumread is made-up in a scummy way. I wasn't saying his nk analysis was wrong, just that there's plenty of other explanations. But Nk analysis kinda sucks anyway. The other big thing is that supposedly the bana wagon was a counter wagon to beast. I forget exactly how it went down now, but it's weird that he uses that as a reason to vote beast without thinking it over first. Like, his only other scumreads weren't on the bana wagon. He has to change his reads to back up this idea that the bana wagon was scum driven. Yet, that doesn't make sense, cause if he doesn't actually suspect anyone driving the bana wagon, how can he use that to justify voting beast? So as far as I'm concerned, his beast vote was still unjustified.
"I don't know". At this point in the game... really?
Egg is so town it hurts. Also loving the replacement for town as well. Nic/ykv can be town for now because if they are scum we are already halfway lost.
NS is scum. Followed by hermy and yyy as possible partners.
The rest fall somewhere in between.
Nic, I'm not 100% sold on you being town. However, lynching you when there are three scum and you can still be confirmed if you are town is just dumb. I made that perfectly clear and you trying to paint it as being wishy washy is just horrible. If you can't see how a dumb town trying to lynch you anyway should at least massclaim if they can't be talked out of it, I have no help for you. The only thing I can say at that point is there are resources to help you learn the game (Newbie queue, MD. Avoid the wiki though).
Also, I've had beast as scum for a while but it's mostly a gut read and I know gut never convinces anyone. I used my vote and made my read clear but I wasn't going to make up a bad case or anything. I never "took it back".
As for notscience, again, this is basic and you can learn it in newbie games. Lynching a town read is always better than no lynching because you could be wrong first of all. Second of all, no lynch is just another free day for scum. They make their NK which is a guaranteed dead town (barring a JK stopping the kill if we have one) and we are pretty much right where we were the day before anyway, just with one less town player (probably). I'm pretty sure notscience is just dumb town but he does kinda look bad in VCA and it's possible I'm wrong. Hell, if we no lynch, there's still a chance he gets lynched tomorrow and if he's town, we waste two days on him. So it should be common sense to lynch him over no lynch. Obviously, a lynch on beast or Yes or even mnem's slot would be better in my opinion but if five people don't agree with me, it can't happen.
As for the bana wagon being "scum driven", it's pure statistics. I've played about 200 games where town was lynched Day 1. I've seen the wagon scum-free twice. So there is a roughly 1% chance that everyone on the wagon was town.
Again back to the game where I played with NS everyone said (correctly) that he was town just for gut. So even if it’s not really a good defense I get it.
"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."
I'm saying you didn't really try to talk them out of it.
I'm saying you did make up a bad case.
I'm saying that there was plenty of time and there was no reason to agree that you would lynch a townread.
And, I know it makes sense that scum was on the bana wagon. Which you were on.
Well I still like Hermy. YYY is doable I guess. Beast I haven't looked enough into but he might be scum as well. I thought mne was town, I'm fairly certain you are too. So you think Hermy usually plays like this?
In post 788, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Egg is so town it hurts. Also loving the replacement for town as well. Nic/ykv can be town for now because if they are scum we are already halfway lost.
NS is scum. Followed by hermy and yyy as possible partners.
The rest fall somewhere in between.
Yes, when I first caught up with the thread, Hermy was my top suspect (you can check my ISO). Until I read Nic's claim on YKV, which just seemed weird, but I'm willing to go with Egg on it and try to find another. If both are still alive tomorrow, I'm going to be asking some serious questions. As far as ns is concerned, I found his sudden reversal to be really strange and his whole attitude is just shitty, but he seems to be calming down so I'd like to see what he comes up with to redeem the slot, since it wasn't scummy before mid-D2.
p-edit: any lynch could be wrong but you can't let that get into your head if your reads are sound.
Well I played a game with Hermy and this is similar but Hermy is doing even less. http://forum.mafiascum.net/search.php?a ... 6&sr=posts
Also this is just all of Hermy's posts you can see its similar but also some parts are much better than anything she has offered all game.
"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."
