Mobile Suit Gundam SEED Mafia - Game Over

[PeregrineV]

So, before we end the day, you need to provide two lists and lots of info:

Pie's scumteam list, and reasons.
Why Pie's scumteam wanted AA9 dead, given the overall target rich environment.
Pie's team, according to you, found DV night1. By that logic, instead of wasting a kill on him, they would try to lynch him first. Pie's scumteam needs to include DV hate day2, or reasons why not.

PieFactional -> Nati, {Beli/Kanye}, +/- Levi
AA9 died n1 because Pie had to play along to stay alive.
Makes more sense to kill him. Fits into the PieSK-HelpingTown narrative - which, if he is a PR as I strongly believe - they want to keep him around as long as possible.

Herp derp read my posts, already said all of this before.

I don't consider bathing in old sewage to be the best thing. I'd rather have new sewage, thank you!

Are all of these associative tells with unflipped Pie?

DV's scumteam list, and reasons.
Why DV's team failed to kill night1.
Why DV's team failed to kill night2.

Don't know, don't care, Pie's information is richer and more pivotal at the moment.

Actually, DV already flipped and so provides us more real information than your assumption of Pie as another mafia team which, while you think is true, is not confirmed. DV, however, has already flipped.

So, would like to see who you think is on the same team with an actual scumflip, not a theorteical scum/SK flip.


Besdies, at this time, Pie's enitre scumteam is under our control and we are using it to kill the other scumteam (according to Majiffy).

Holy shit, I found reasons for Majiffy to post and play besides being Wake88 Jr.

Holy shit, PV clearly is a fucking genius!

Seriously, thank you for joining this game! You significantly increased town's chances to win!

I have called out 2 confirmed scum and town has failed to lynch them. As far as I'm concerned, I should be getting awards right now and some fresh new rolls of toilet paper!

Why, thank you, I do appreciate the kind words.

[Titus]

1) I use scum as a generic to mean non town.

3) I consider you as uprooted scum with no utilty to town.

4) The big long one to PV. Frankly, I haven't really focused much on what Pie is. Just how people react to it as there is no 100% either way.

5) I have to assume possibilites are true to rationally discuss reaching a conclusion in all reasonable scenarios. You are seriously misinterpreting. That post was assuming Pie was factionscum and sk in the alternative. To put forth said argument, I must assume.


6) So, I am manipulating everyone to save Pie but yet I am too incompetent to lynch you, when from your PoV it should be harder to save confscum than to push a lynch?

7) A PR claim is worthless with fakeclaims. Period. I look for scums.

8) I always look to my scumreads for permission to argue.

9) I am. No one else seems to have a problem with a deal's a deal but you.

10) This is just OMGUS.

11) If I succeed in lynching you, your buddies will have to kill me. There is no B. In the infinesimal odds I am wrong, scum don't like this much spotlight.

[PeregrineV]

PV, let's suppose (arguendo, with no evidence) that

1) Night 1 kills are as follows

a) Pie is factional scum and killed AA9.
b) 2nd factional scum killed AA9 OR ran into a doctor/healer or some other role protecting said target.

I'll allow 1a, if Pie is faking it then scum1 team has to do it.
1b- first part, no, makes no sense. 2nd part, maybe. In that case, very lucky doc, but possible.

2) Night 2 kills are as follows

a) Pie's non-blue scum kills DV. (Most likely scenario, but not certain).
b) Blue scum tried to shoot Pyro/Talah or ran into another healer ish type character and Pyro is assuming the BP shot went on him. (I've never heard of a "loud" BP on this site [meaning notification received when vest lost].)

2a- DV is dead, so granted that Pie killed DV.
2b- So then DV's team is just super bad at mafia? They've hit protected targets twice, haven't shot the faking-Pie and haven't shot any PRs or VTs. Nor have they blocked Pie to make him look bad in order to get him lynched faster.
So, maybe once I can agree to the possibility. Twice, no.

Plus the existence of an SK. Is there one?

I have just set up a scenario where multiball is possible.

Would it be highly implausible that

a) Blue Scum Wake wanted to lynch Pie to ensure none of his team got lynched

or

b) Non-Blue Scum Wake wanted to get Pie lynched so his faction could have control over his kill?

a. Then Blue scum Wake could have shot Pie n1 when he wasn't lynched the first time, or Blue scum wake could have shot Pie last night.
b. Red-Scum Wake would either be scum with Pie (Majiffy theory) or Redscum Wake knows Pie is really SK, in which you are missing an additional NK from each night.

The thing is we are not looking for what is possible, but for what is probable.



===========

Now let's take a more likely scenario, one scum team.

Would it be plausible for you that Scum Wake would want to push to have Pie lynched to have total control over his faction's kill?

Not sure I get this. There is no way Wake is having total control over Pie's kill. Just like we wouldn't give him total control over your kill.

But, maybe you are saying Pie and Wake are on the same team. Wake is mad at Pie for faking SK claim, and now wants to bus Pie to take control back over of their scumteam's kill. Is that what you mean?

If it is, I find that even less likely.

Given game size, I think there are 5 mafia and one SK. If there is not an SK, then there were 3 other players that would mediate the Pie-Wake debacle in the QT. Being of lesser numbers, they would continue to shoot town until Pie made the ultimate sacrifice and got lynched.
But, with the Pie killing of DV, I don't think they are all on one team.

Look at Wake's actions as a whole... lynch confscum = trying to play for towncred without actually scumhunting, benefit == get control of kill after teammate slipped and required bussing. He tries to insist on his own pool to ensure that those his faction wants dead CAN be killed. Look at his noms as more evidence this is his motivation.

If you're going to seriously put for Wake town, I'm going to need a lot at this point.

Being arrogant and thinking you are right is not the same as being scum. Besides, 4800 looks like he might resign himself to a few more days of Pie and may be putting effort into the game.

[waynegg]

Titus, it would seem you more than anyone else has tried to find any reason to see me lynched. You may think I am an easy lynch, but you would be wrong. I'll give you time to think things through before I come back.

I never go for easy lynches. I go for scum lynches. I already have associative tells I have posted and know a goid chunk of your 5-6 player scum team (unless it is multiball). So I want YOU dead as you are practically confscum to me.

Umm...Pie is scum.

[Titus]

Yes. I am suggesting Wake is angry at Pie for claiming SK and trying to bus Pie so his team can actually kill quality town reads. Why do you find this unlikely?

That scenario only requires two factions (or one scum plus sk not being Pie). If you buy 5 scum plus sk, just move Pie to factionscum.

I basically know Wake's game and know he's scum. So much so that

intent to vig Wake

.


@Waynegg, Pie has utility.

[waynegg]

1) I use scum as a generic to mean non town.

3) I consider you as uprooted scum with no utilty to town.

Contradiction much with the last bit I quoted? And what happened to 2?

And then what Wake quoted of you not thinking town is smart enough to kill the SK. And then you rattling on since to save the SK like its a blue freaking whale. And you say its others pushing that. But it's not so much. You're the heaviest voice in this greenpeace campaign!

[Wake1]

Yes. I am suggesting Wake is angry at Pie for claiming SK and trying to bus Pie so his team can actually kill quality town reads. Why do you find this unlikely?

That scenario only requires two factions (or one scum plus sk not being Pie). If you buy 5 scum plus sk, just move Pie to factionscum.

I basically know Wake's game and know he's scum. So much so that

intent to vig Wake

.


@Waynegg, Pie has utility.

If you can kill me today, then do so. I find you to be stubborn, reckless, and stupid if Town. Otherwise, you're Scum pulling off one hell of a gamble.

Once I flip, it will cost you, and if you kill me tonight you will have burnt my tracker results.

[waynegg]

1) I use scum as a generic to mean non town.

3) I consider you as uprooted scum with no utilty to town.

Contradiction much with that last bit I quoted? And what happened to "2"?

And why are you saying that you're just going with the flow on Pie, when it's you bleating on like Pie is a blue freaking whale or something? There may be others, but yours is the loudest voice in this Greenpeace campaign!

[waynegg]

@Waynegg, Pie has utility.

Yes. To scum. To you. Because you're scum.

[Titus]

Wayne, 2 was a just statement of believe what you want. I see no contradiction.

I also am not leading a greenpeace campaign on Wake. I happen to like that orgsniztion for the record. A deal is a deal. I stick with it. If Pie hits town tomorrow, I inist on his lynch to save my vig shots just like I am insisting on Wake's. Pie can kill scum. So let's let him.

Wake, I only have nightshots left. I do think you are the scumcop helping Pie. Fake claims probably mirror the real scum role. Can I prove that? No, but I am pretty confident. I also tend to be a risk averse player and now you're claiming I am a gambling woman. You are desperate since your buddies couldn't lie to protect you.

[Titus]

***Greenpeace on Pie

[kanyeknowsbest]

Yes. I am suggesting Wake is angry at Pie for claiming SK and trying to bus Pie so his team can actually kill quality town reads. Why do you find this unlikely?

That scenario only requires two factions (or one scum plus sk not being Pie). If you buy 5 scum plus sk, just move Pie to factionscum.

I basically know Wake's game and know he's scum. So much so that

intent to vig Wake

.


@Waynegg, Pie has utility.

If you can kill me today, then do so. I find you to be stubborn, reckless, and stupid if Town. Otherwise, you're Scum pulling off one hell of a gamble.

Once I flip, it will cost you, and if you kill me tonight you will have burnt my tracker results.

this is a Very Scum Post

[PeregrineV]

AGar, it's quite likely that scum were unable to 'deal' with pie last night.

The reasons for lynching pie are still pretty bad, but I can't be bothered arguing anymore.

I think this tells us that night1 they tried to kill him.

[PeregrineV]

Yes. I am suggesting Wake is angry at Pie for claiming SK and trying to bus Pie so his team can actually kill quality town reads. Why do you find this unlikely?

That scenario only requires two factions (or one scum plus sk not being Pie). If you buy 5 scum plus sk, just move Pie to factionscum.

I basically know Wake's game and know he's scum. So much so that

intent to vig Wake

.


@Waynegg, Pie has utility.

If you can kill me today, then do so. I find you to be stubborn, reckless, and stupid if Town. Otherwise, you're Scum pulling off one hell of a gamble.

Once I flip, it will cost you, and if you kill me tonight you will have burnt my tracker results.

this is a Very Scum Post

Why? I find it absolutely null.

[kanyeknowsbest]

that appeal~

[Titus]

AGar, it's quite likely that scum were unable to 'deal' with pie last night.

The reasons for lynching pie are still pretty bad, but I can't be bothered arguing anymore.

I think this tells us that night1 they tried to kill him.

That means

Pie kills AA9.
DV faction either heals Pie with a third faction killing Pie or DVs faction tried to kill Pie and a doctor healed Pue.

Either way, it makes sense for frustrated scum to tunnel who they cannot kill at night right.

[PeregrineV]

459:

Townreads:

kanyeknowsbest
Belisarius
waynegg
AGar
leviathan93
talah
Natirasha
mastin2

Town with reservations:

DrDolittle
Pieguyn
PeregrineV
NachoKoopa
Matias

Leftover:

Kise
Empking
Majiffy
Pyrotechnics
Sakura Hana
Mac
Kalimar

Spoiler: Full text of 459

Sorry about being away for a while guys.

I'm sorry about not joining you on Sakura, talah. I actually forgot about it, but I'd rather not move off Majiffy at this time.

Nacho, does Mac ever not do this? I'm not really up to trying to find my past games with him right now, but this doesn't deviate from my general impression of him.

~~

Townreads:

kanyeknowsbest
Belisarius
waynegg
AGar
leviathan93
talah
Natirasha
mastin2

Town with reservations:

DrDolittle
Pieguyn
PeregrineV
NachoKoopa
Matias

Leftover:

Kise
Empking
Majiffy
Pyrotechnics
Sakura Hana
Mac
Kalimar

~~

I'm worried about the leftover group being so small, but I feel pretty good about the townreads, and I think I'm actually being conservative with them if anything. A couple from the weak town group could probably even be in the higher one.

Things of note:

I agree with what Nacho (I think?) said about Belisarius not claiming the multiball thing as scum. It's just such an awkward thing for scum to do that I really think they'd avoid it. I also think his early game posting is pretty natural and not really caring about what people think of him.

Pie, look at AGar as scum in this game. Is it possible that their alignments are the same? I really don't think so.

Favoured targets at the moment would probably be Sakura and Majiffy. I don't know how to describe Sakura, but she just feels flat to me and I don't get the impression that she's actually scumhunting. Although I completely disagree with wayne's scumread on talah, I know he's kind of weird sometimes (I love you wayne!) and he seems to believe it, but just don't feel that Sakura does? I don't know.

The main person I want to talk to you about though is Majiffy! Don't let those stylish eyebrows and inquisitive bedroom eyes deceive you. They are actually a distraction from the headset used to communicate with his buddies in broad daylight! Didn't notice it before? Well now that I've discovered his mastermind plan, you shall be in the dark no longer! If that's not enough for you though:

The general thing I've been finding about Majiffy is that whenever someone says something possibly incriminating about him, he dismisses it and insists that it can't be the case, and this has happened to the extent where I actually think it's very likely that he's not being genuine.

The first thing that comes to mind is my mention of the fact that I buddied talah much more in response to Majiffy finding me scummy for buddying Natirasha. The fact that he did this in the first place was odd, possibly slightly scummy, but how he responds to it is much more scummy. First, in 336, he makes this comment about me admitting to being scum buddying, ignoring the possible conflict that I present. And when I actually properly confront him about it, in 363 he says that it wasn't worth noticing (he's calling me scum for buddying and what I said to talah was as buddy-buddy as buddying gets, so of course it was worth noticing if he considers it a scumtell). I feel that town here would have some sort of reason for thinking my buddying of talah was irrelevant (I have no idea what though), or would say something along the lines of 'hey! you're scum for that too!', while I think this would be awkward for scum. I don't like the comment afterwards either, but I'm not sure if that's scummy or just me.

Similar to this is his response to my 303, using the fact that my reason sucked as a reason for why he thought that people were voting him for his lack of posts. Much more likely things imo would be that he just looked at the vote count and didn't read reasons for the votes, or just skimmed or something, but if town thinks that someone's reason sucked, they say it sucked, so this would not be a reason why someone would act confused as to why they were being voted for.

I also think the part about how I'm buddying being a scumtell is just a bad attempt to make his scumread more sophisticated.

PEdit: No tammy.

2438

Town/Not wanting to lynch any time soon:

Belisarius
Pieguyn
AGar
Sakura Hana
Wake88
Talah
Natirasha
Titus

Weaker town but still not that interested in lynching:

Kanye
PeregrineV
leviathan93
NachoKoopa
Majiffy*

*Probably in the list below if Nacho changes.

Leftover/scummy:

Wayne
Svenskt
Empking
Pyrotechnics

Spoiler: Full text of 2438

I'm still not for lynching Pie. He probably killed AA, so he's not the big bad meanie that people thought he was going to be, and if he's scum (I really don't think so though), well.. I don't really mind if it means his faction's going to keep killing who we tell them to? Also, the SK doesn't actually know who the mafia are any more than we do, so they can't actively not kill scum.

And I want an explanation from Majiffy as to why he didn't use his supposed ability Night 1. You'd think he'd use it if he could, and if he's Town I don't see why the Hell not.

If you had this concern, why were you so against Majiffy being lynched today?

~~

Town/Not wanting to lynch any time soon:

Belisarius
Pieguyn
AGar
Sakura Hana
Wake88
Talah
Natirasha
Titus

Weaker town but still not that interested in lynching:

Kanye
PeregrineV
leviathan93
NachoKoopa
Majiffy*

*Probably in the list below if Nacho changes.

Leftover/scummy:

Wayne
Svenskt
Empking
Pyrotechnics

I actually still need to read Wayne properly, but he's a mixture of town-looking and scummy, and after a quick skim and think about things just now and I'm leaning towards the scummy side of things. Svenskt is just there. I don't think he's overly scummy, but he's not town either so I wouldn't be upset with his lynch. Empking is probably my favourite choice for lynch because while he is usually minimal with his posting, it usually achieves much more than is occurring here. Pyro is just really underwhelming, but I think Tammy at least is pretty obvious as town, so I'll wait a little.

Vote: Empking

3599

Super town:

Kanye
PeregrineV
Pyrotechnics
Sakura Hana
Wake88
Talah
Natirasha
Titus

(I actually think this would be a pretty great townblock, but somehow I don't think people would want me in it, so...)

Then I've got a group of people who are kind of town, but I could still see as scum:

Belisarius (Probably should be in the group above, but I'm worried about his lack of posting lately)
AGar
Svenskt
Majiffy
Nacho

And then there's:

Wayne
Empking
Leviathan

Spoiler: full text of 3599

]

Wake, Pyro has essentially shown us that Pie is the SK and not groupscum. Please don't use the possibility of him being groupscum to support your arguments.

I also don't see much point in waiting for a lynch at this stage except for getting a claim/anything else that's obvious.

My reads are looking something like this:

Super town:

Kanye
PeregrineV
Pyrotechnics
Sakura Hana
Wake88
Talah
Natirasha
Titus

(I actually think this would be a pretty great townblock, but somehow I don't think people would want me in it, so...)

Then I've got a group of people who are kind of town, but I could still see as scum:

Belisarius (Probably should be in the group above, but I'm worried about his lack of posting lately)
AGar
Svenskt
Majiffy
Nacho

And then there's:

Wayne
Empking
Leviathan

[waynegg]

Kanye
So you think town never AtE? How are they to keep their bellies full then? I guess they never WIFOM or omgus either, huh?

[waynegg]

AGar, it's quite likely that scum were unable to 'deal' with pie last night.

The reasons for lynching pie are still pretty bad, but I can't be bothered arguing anymore.

I think this tells us that night1 they tried to kill him.

That means

Pie kills AA9.
DV faction either heals Pie with a third faction killing Pie or DVs faction tried to kill Pie and a doctor healed Pue.

Either way, it makes sense for frustrated scum to tunnel who they cannot kill at night right.

No. That means WIFOM fodder. Which you're a obliging.

[PeregrineV]

AGar, it's quite likely that scum were unable to 'deal' with pie last night.

The reasons for lynching pie are still pretty bad, but I can't be bothered arguing anymore.

I think this tells us that night1 they tried to kill him.

That means

Pie kills AA9.
DV faction either heals Pie with a third faction killing Pie or DVs faction tried to kill Pie and a doctor healed Pue.

Either way, it makes sense for frustrated scum to tunnel who they cannot kill at night right.

We did mention that as SK, Pie may or may not have BP-ness to some or no degree. I suspect he did/does, and that DV's group tried to take him out but failed. I think normally they would let the SK take some extra shots at town, but him being leashed is probably not what they wanted.

I also don't think the entire scumteam would push for Pie's lynch. There is no reason for all of them to mislynch a townie, so there would be no reason for all of them to join in the SK push.

[waynegg]

I also don't think the entire scumteam would push for Pie's lynch. There is no reason for all of them to mislynch a townie, so there would be no reason for all of them to join in the SK push.

Oh that subtle scum+townie right there.

[waynegg]

I also don't think the entire scumteam would push for Pie's lynch. There is no reason for all of them to mislynch a townie, so there would be no reason for all of them to join in the SK push.

Oh that subtle scum=townie right there.

[PeregrineV]

that appeal~

I think, based on all his other posting, that it can be attributed to his playstyle.

[PeregrineV]

I also don't think the entire scumteam would push for Pie's lynch. There is no reason for all of them to mislynch a townie, so there would be no reason for all of them to join in the SK push.

Oh that subtle scum=townie right there.

I can't tell, are you agreeing or disagreeing with me?

[waynegg]

I'm saying you're scum. Blunt enough now?