Open 536: Faith Plus One Game Over! Mafia Win!

[sthar8]

Yeah, I don't work in an office. Sometimes the boss needs to use my computer. alt+tab only works if they're just looking over your shoulder.

[Paschendale]

Pasch's updated reads (sort of)

Helium

Helium voted for five people before offering anything resembling an original thought. And then they've been unrelenting in the attacks on Grim. Pretty much to the exclusion of all else. And a lot of it about saying that Grim feels scummy. A lot of it is "Grim isn't acting like his town meta". It started out with blatantly false pronouncements about Grim not contributing, and then has looked like defending that accusation since then.

On 681, we finally get a mention of other people. But it only leaves a lot of questions. Why do they think TS is town? Why do they think Guyett is scum? What about Shos? Why does Obscurity merit a mention when Shos doesn't? Why is Taylor town? Most of these reads are unsubstantiated and completely swallowed up by the almost pathological attacks on Grim.

Helium's attacks on Grim have been so numerous and so varied that they don't even look that bad on Helium. I cannot honestly say that they make Helium look like scum. If Grim dies and flips town, it won't look like Helium was lying. And that bothers me. It might be too good to be true.

And they try to justify it in light of Grim's claim. "PRs sometimes look like scum"? It reeks. And then the vote for Taylor. There's no conviction there. They're trying to convince themselves to join this wagon. The wagon they were driving didn't measure up, so they're hopping on the one that's stood the test so far.

And then Obscurity? All that ranting and raving and the answer is a lurker vote? This is actually the kind of thing that pings my scumdar. All this content, all this posting, and Helium doesn't have another scumread to go after? So all that tunneling on Grim, nothing else was even on Helium's minds? Two minds! Two minds and nothing else worthy of consideration? And then in 893, their vote for Taylor has all the same kinds of meta arguments.

The whole game so far, Helium looks like someone trying to justify votes, rather than discern alignment. There's attacks. Lots of attacks. But nothing stringing them together to reach a real conclusion. The votes look like a calculated choice rather than a forming theory, and then the justification is just that, instead of questioning, probing, and refining.

After all of this, Helium absolutely looks like scum to me.

Okay, that actually took way longer than I thought it was going to (lots of interruptions). Thoughts on TSO, Pecan, and Sthar will be next time.

[shos]

what about meeeeee? I don't get thoughts?????

[Taylor]

Clock's dwindling down (less than 15 minutes and shrinking), but I'll try to at least stay caught up in that time.

you look scummy. if your wagon starts up again I will be right back on it.

Scummy, but ultimately, still not scum.

[Taylor]

Taylor, why don't you like the push on shos?

Not sure, honestly. On Obscurity, I have a definitive gut-ping that something's wrong. When it comes to shos, I kinda instead just get a "this doesn't look good" feeling.

...Okay. Mafia theory time, but basically. There's more than one level to "gut". Gut's a catch-all term, and I hate describing both of the above as gut, but that's the best term my tired short-on-time mind can think of to describe both of them right now. And when it comes to those "gut" feelings, they're not equal. The feeling on Obscurity isn't strong, but isn't weak; the feeling on shos is a little weak, but not really weak, if that makes sense. (Of course it doesn't. )

[bubbajack8]

Nothing Changes.

Vote Count 0.14
Taylor (4) : Paschendale, Obscurity, Grimgroove, N64Lord Shos (2) : XScorpion, Guyett Guyett (2) : Shos, T S O Paschendale (2) : Blueberry, Taylor Obscurity (3) : sthar8, helium-3, pieceofpecanpie Not Voting (0) : No one
With 13 alive it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline is in (expired on 2013-11-28 17:18:00)

[pieceofpecanpie]

I can't pin down a read on Taylor or helium. There's too much bickering and/or aggressiveness to wade through.

[sthar8]

Hey, I'd like to take this moment to remind {Grim, mollie, anti, ETL, and mastin} that you all like and respect one another. A large part of why I replaced into this game is that you are all fucking awesome people who make this game fun and none of you are stupid, even when you're being dumb.

LOL @ stahr; we can just have the above/under swapped, you know. it is THAT easy. other than me, I'm glad we have the same scumlist mostly. I didn't understand what your read on BB is tho.

See the thing is, arbitrary or random choices are really easy for scum to manipulate. Easier than reasoned and presented logic, in fact, because if a logical plan goes sideways, we can find the person responsible for breaking it and lynch them. So just suggesting an arbitrary division is scummy as hell.

My read on berry is:

I'm [...] being unproductive [...] until [...] I[...] read and post tomorrow.

There's like nothing there to work with, and other things to do right now. He can get himself gathered, or he'll get the obscurity treatment later.

Grim- I like plan C, and will support it.

ohai guyette you wanna lynch Taylor or TSO. didn't you just build a case on ME?

WTF is this. Like, I think Guyett might be scum and this is still badposting.

No, I'm pretty fucking sure I can. If you have a problem with your perceived levels of my competence, that's cool. But you're dead fucking wrong. Everyone targeting Taylor makes me even surer he's town.

So they're not dying today.

See this? Right here? The dick-measuring? The arrogance? The utter lack of self-examination? 100% pure columbian town-TSO.

I feel like I promised something and then forgot about it. I apologize to whoever, but would you mind pointing me back at it?

[Blueberry]

@Blueberry: why have you not bothered to ask questions to the people you are not sure about?

What questions

I'll

Vote: Shos

For now but I really don't have time for explanations.

Btw, I've seen you, Shos, multiple times state how my 102 wasn't scummy. Okay, but what exactly makes me towny? Idgi.

[pieceofpecanpie]

I'd also be okay with a Blueberry wagon, but I don't believe that's going to happen in a hurry.

Let's just bugger off Obscurity and be done with this Day. No one else claim, we'll just have to put some faith in it working out between the two healers.

[T S O]

my e-penis is incredibly long.

Shos is also Town

I'm getting a problem where the only scumread I really have is Guyett, so that makes me think there's scum within the lurkers, especially Obscurity.

[T S O]

And sure as I am that Guyett is scum, you guys aren't feeling it. And that's okay. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but the day after that you'll think "Damn, that TSO guy had scum nailed on d1!

I want to sex him hard.

" And then scum will be gloriously lynched.

[shos]

LOL @ stahr; we can just have the above/under swapped, you know. it is THAT easy. other than me, I'm glad we have the same scumlist mostly. I didn't understand what your read on BB is tho.

See the thing is, arbitrary or random choices are really easy for scum to manipulate. Easier than reasoned and presented logic, in fact, because if a logical plan goes sideways, we can find the person responsible for breaking it and lynch them. So just suggesting an arbitrary division is scummy as hell.

that is just plain wrong. the arbitrarity that I chose is arbitrary with odds in our favor, AKA, it is reasoned and with logic. nobody can break it at all, since the only active people are the two FHs, who are town, and have no reason to wok against town.

ohai guyette you wanna lynch Taylor or TSO. didn't you just build a case on ME?

WTF is this. Like, I think Guyett might be scum and this is still badposting.

huh, why?
Iwas pointing out the inconsistency in Guyette's posting. I think he is scum too; he literally posted a horrible, horrible case against me, and now says that he will be happy to lynch two other people, not even mentioning me? I don't recall him having changed his read publicly or somehting?

my vote is parked on him and yours should be as well.

@Blueberry: why have you not bothered to ask questions to the people you are not sure about?

What questions

I'll

Vote: Shos

For now but I really don't have time for explanations.

Btw, I've seen you, Shos, multiple times state how my 102 wasn't scummy. Okay, but what exactly makes me towny? Idgi.

questions, you know, a part of scumhunting? that thing that you're not doing

You voted me(gettin popular lately) with no explanations, again; that no time is really becoming tedious.
that 102 was nt scummy, that does not make you town. the part that does make you town is that, despite the fact that it was not scummy, many people jumped the chance to vote you for it, meaning that I think scum tried to lead your lynch. in the future, with a flip and a tad more info and time to research, looking at your voters should imo bring at least one scum. looking into taylor's L-1 wagon can yield probably 2. anyone who was on both - might be votable.

but meanwhile, we have to get rid of guyette and Obs.

my e-penis is incredibly long.

Shos is also Town

I'm getting a problem where the only scumread I really have is Guyett, so that makes me think there's scum within the lurkers, especially Obscurity.

[T S O]

Can everyone state their read on Guyett in their next post?

[Guyett]

Your death tunnel on me seems very very familiar

[T S O]

could you try to be more vague?

[Guyett]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=31354

[N64Lord]

honsetly at this point, I'm looking at the obsuruity votes. Yes, making a promise to catch up after swallowing such a prod is anti-town.... But considering how high tempers were running just before he peeped in, makes me wonder about the sincerity of the change.

Shos evolved from "activity=town" to "scum don't get wagons on them d1". lol

I like Shos' throwaway reads and arguments, but he keeps going back to blanket statements about how GrimGroove, Taylor, and Helios (the active people) are most likely town vs town, and the scum are among the lurkers. So basically, I'm too conflicted on him to give him a town read, but he's not scum by virtue of having no feasible partner+ effort to adopt tactics that prevent flare ups like (insert page with no posts but grimgroove and Taylor)

@shos I want to ask you to be specific on Talyor vs Grimgrooves points that made you know they had town intent despite their "pointless" conflict.

[shos]

@guyette: I don't get it. tso was town there, what is your point?

@N64:

Shos evolved from "activity=town" to "scum don't get wagons on them d1". lol

what does that even mean.? If you are referring to the BB townread, it is not the fact that he was wagoned; it was the fact that the basis for the votes was wrong, and the fact that they piled up very quickly.

where the hell did I say pre-claim that GG is town? where the hell did I say Helios is town??? I basically said like once that I'm just not getting enough scumreads, and that was like 700 posts ago.

The townread on Taylor has nothing to do with the 'pointless' conflict with GG at all. dunno where you got that from.
The townread on GG comes from his claim; he played to his scum-meta the entire game, then he claimed, and that softclaim idea from him explains why he went so mad about it, so that makes his play fitting in accordance to his claim, and thus, I believe his claim.

[Grimgroove]

If you are referring to the BB townread, it is not the fact that he was wagoned; it was the fact that the basis for the votes was wrong, and the fact that they piled up very quickly.

This is the second time I see you see this and it's the second time I need to correct you on this: BlueBerry never, during any point in this game, had more than one vote on him.
What has happened to checking facts?

[Guyett]

@guyette: I don't get it. tso was town there, what is your point?

both of us were town and he death tunneled me... I've been reading up on his games and I have a feeling he might actually be town. He tends to death tunnel more as town from what I've read

[Grimgroove]

I am madly in love with Paschendale's read on Helium. He brought under words what I couldn't.
Read it!

[N64Lord]

@ Shos, I might have over read your Let's look elsewhere as you having put a town-null cause and effect to all of the main arguments that your weren't looking at.

It was an important part of the game anyway, even if the claim hadn't happened, we got to see Taylor push Heliio's meta case against Grimgroove from a single direction until they fell out over it. Not to mention ETL's endgame promise. And most importantlyy the KUM-Bay_YAH air of self-assurance they gave off. It was clearly intentional, and modern developments make me think that the commitment to lynching GrimGroove was not enough to warrant it.

I was going to say something about the Plan C, but I can't remember at the moment.

[T S O]

re: the plans - I didn't even read shos' down to laziness, but I will. I did look at Sthar's though, and I could find absolutely no flaw other than bs luck.

[N64Lord]

Let's see.

If one faith healer claimed today (before scum get there next qt), then killing grim would run the risk of the "second and final" healer claiming, making it doubly distasteful for scum to fake.

But if we end d1 with a bloc that shows sympathies for lynching grimgroove he wouldn't be the target

Making the claim unnecsary. However, it still wouldn't be a loss since, the claimed healer would have a 50% of evading while grim was alive (though being a non target would be fuel for his wagon). It follows that tommorow, we will have 2 claimed and one (VT or second FH) dead. Then we will have 3/10 of hitting scum, not to mention grim's inspect. This makes Taylor, extremely unlikely for a nightkill, because most of the hope of lynching Grimm(opening up other kills) rests on Taylor. And if there is a d1 lynch we would have 3/9 (or 2/9) of hitting scum before Grim's inspect.

So having one claim today and the other only if grim dies/mislynched(to insure that no fake claim) could game the setup in favor of town. Especially since this even saves grim from having to inspect today's claim.