Mafia 56: Hardcore Street - Game over!

[milkman]

Im sorry for lurking, be back to posting a bit more on monday.

To me , i think olio is for once telling the truth.

The statistical odds of actually going after the real cop in a simple game like this are low

, and the canuckle milkman action smells really really fishy.

I´m sorry, but to me those 2 seem almost certainly scum, but id like to start with milkman.

I'm not even sure what you mean. It looks like you're appealing to probablity too, but that in of it's self is fallacy.

So your argument for olio being the cop is something like this:

the canuckle milkman action smells really really fishy.

I haven't really done anything scummy. I can see Canuckle flailing about as well you can, but I can't control his behavior. Though I can say that canuckle always thrashes like that. He's just one of those players that relies more on gut than cold logic, like twito.

The only thing you've said about me being scum is:

His claim is sooo much worse than olio's.

Which I can't control, I claimed truthfully, and didn't have the luxury to fabricate a claim.

As I said, the max amount of scum is 3.

And how do you know? I know it would be really unfair for there to be 4 scum, but you keep carrying on like you "know" straight up that there are 3 scum.

Also, being replaced is

no

indicator for being scum. Read this thread.

I'm not really sure what that proves. There really isn't sufficient data to come to a clear conclusion.

[olio]

Milkman, Canuckle; you have yet to answer why you think N9V is townie.

!

You have still yet to answer the question. Why?

The appeal to probability is a logical fallacy, often used in conjunction with other fallacies. It assumes that because something could happen, it is inevitable that it will happen. This is flawed logic, regardless of the likelihood of the event in question.

The fallacy is often used to exploit paranoia.

I Think I caught you.

Sorry, I fail to see where I presented either of those options as inevitable. And next thing you reveal as something you´ve caught as logical fallacy must be Zindaras saying that there are 3 scum in this game, right?

[Zindaras]

And how do you know? I know it would be really unfair for there to be 4 scum, but you keep carrying on like you "know" straight up that there are 3 scum.

Every setup needs to be looked at for balance. That's why we have backup mods. Inhim and voidybuns aren't idiots. They know that even without the no-reveal mechanic, 4 Scum, Cop, Doc, 8 Townies is skewed towards the scum.

Assuming there is 4 scum is false and detrimental to the town. 3 scum is simply by far the most probably setup. I'd give it a 99% chance.

I'm not really sure what that proves. There really isn't sufficient data to come to a clear conclusion.

The data that is there says that it says nothing about someone's alignment. If you can give me more data saying the opposite is true, then I'll accept that.

[~N9V~]

Sorry for my lack of inactivity, I still got a 98 page game to catch up on.

Also, about the cop claims. I think olio might not be the real cop. He didn't give ANY reason for why he looked at them, and some of his choices were rather unnecessary. All Simenon did on day1 was put a vote on olio, so in other words, didn't look scummy at all. And arn't cops supossed to look at people who looked scummy that day?

Twito was a good choice for a night2, I can't complain with that.

Ah dammit, never mind that first paragraph about Simenon, olio's night1 is actually night0..

Hmm, well that fucks everything up for my analysis. I don't know, but I think both of them are scum, and that the real cop is dead.

[Zindaras]

The best strategy is to lynch the cop we think is fake today.

[Canucklehead17]

I'm trying to do that!

However, I just had another idea, that I know Zindy will not like, but it may be what the town needs to flush out the fake cop and kill scum at the same time.

Let's NOT lynch either of the claimed cops, and let's lynch someone else who is suspicious. My proposal is this:

I will allow all players to give me a vote on who they think I should protect tonight, and I will honor the requests. The mafia will absolutely NOT leave the cop alive any longer, as whoever is cop, they are closing in fast on the remaining scum. So, if in the morning, the "cop" I didn't protect is dead, we can assume he was in fact the real cop, treat the other as a phony, and likely wrap things up very quickly. So, here's a hypothetical scenario:

Lynch Zindy
Town says protect olio
Milkman dies overnight
Olio is scum

OR

Lynch Zindy
Town says protect milkman
Olio dies overnight
Milkman is scum

Because I think we're all in agreement that whoever is not the cop, IS scum, and scum cannot kill themselves.

unvote, vote: Zindaras

[Canucklehead17]

Forgot to add the last two possible scenarios:

Lynch Zindy
Town says protect Olio
Both "cops" survive the night
It can be assumed Milkman is scum, and Olio is cop

OR

Vice Versa of above

[Zindaras]

*Beep*

Your conclusions are completely wrong, as the Mafia can simply choose not to kill the real cop even if they're not protected to set up for a Cop-lynch the day after, or they can kill one of their own to "clear" the other. They can set up whatever WIFOM-game they want. Allow me to simply show it:

There are two possibilities you suggest.

Protect the Fake-claimer, the Real-claimer gets killed, so the Fake-claimer is scum.
Protect the Real-claimer, both survives, so Fake-claimer is scum.

But, as I said, the fake-claimer can simply choose not to kill either in the first situation. Therefore, the second scenario is also obsolete, because the second scenario's results could also be a result of the first scenario.

[spectrumvoid]

Vote Count!

milkman: 2 (olio, irrumator)
olio: 2 (milkman,)
zindaras: 1 ( canucklehead17)

7 alive, 4 to lynch!

[Zindaras]

You call that a corrected vote count? *giggles*

SV: You didn't see that. Curse you and patrick who keep spotting my errors just when I'm correcting them..

[Canucklehead17]

I just can't see the mafia leaving the real cop alive any longer, now that they know who he is. It wouldn't make any sense, with so few people left. If Olio/Milkman investigates scum, it's pretty much over for the scum. It may seem like a anti-logical move, but if we followed my plan, I just cannot see the mafia leaving the cop alive. Way too risky for them.

[irrumator]

Canuckle, this assumes you're clear. In fact, with the exception of olio, you wouldve been my top suspect today.

More later, just got back off the airplane.

[Canucklehead17]

Canuckle, this assumes you're clear. In fact, with the exception of olio, you wouldve been my top suspect today.

More later, just got back off the airplane.

Granted, but just

think about it

Ok, let's go ahead and take Zindy's assumption that there are only three scum total. Twito was definitely scum. That leaves two max still alive. There are seven players still alive. If we lynch Zindy today(who I

personally

think is scum), even if he's townie, it makes it 4-2 in favor of town. An overnight kill brings it down to 3-2. Now that certainly lowers the towns advantage, so I'll admit it's a risky move. However, the one thing I see that we have going for us is that I cannot see the mafia leaving the cop alive. So the cop sacrifices himself(unless he's the one I protect), and we narrow it down to ONE SCUMMER.

So I say again, I think our best move is to:

1)Tell me who to protect
2)Order the "real" cop to investigate the "fake" cop(this is optional really)
3)See where we're at in the morning!

It's the best move I can see so far! The only thing we've gotten thus far is a bunch of arguing. Let's take some action and see if we can't end this thing.

If anyone else has a better idea, I'm all ears.

[Zindaras]

I just can't see the mafia leaving the real cop alive any longer, now that they know who he is. It wouldn't make any sense, with so few people left. If Olio/Milkman investigates scum, it's pretty much over for the scum. It may seem like a anti-logical move, but if we followed my plan, I just cannot see the mafia leaving the cop alive. Way too risky for them.

They can simply leave the Cop alive and we'd still be in the exact same position as we are today

. We won't know who the real Cop is until the game's over.

Oh, god, and let's have the "real" cop investigate the "fake" cop, too, that's bound to get an interesting result.

You are simply trying to chisel away at olio's support so you can lynch him tomorrow.

[Ancalagon]

Zindy has a point. Both would come up with guilty investigations. It would still be impossible to find out who is who.

[olio]

N9V, please think a bit before speaking and put some effort in your analysis. If you can't do that, please don't replace.

[olio]

Because I think we're all in agreement that whoever is not the cop, IS scum, and scum cannot kill themselves.

Right. How do you know scum can't kill themselves? I think you've asked it from mod, you've got

positive

answer to your question and your real course of actions is to nightkill your scumbuddy milkman and claim that you protected me. Once my night result gives guilty on you, you'll make your last desperate stand to save your scummy-skin.

Well, I think my assumption is easily tested in this case.

mod

, can scum nightkill themselves?

By the way Canuckle, I guess you didn't read N9V's post. He thinks both milkman and I are scum.

[Canucklehead17]

Yes, please do ask the mod, as I haven't.

MOD

, would you mind confirming that there have been no inquiries into whether or not scum can nightkill themselves prior to Olio's?

Talk about assumptions.

And yes, I did read N9V's post actually. It would be an incredibly brilliant move by the scummers to false claim twice, thus making the town think that at least one of them is scum. However, I'm not willing to give either of you enough credit to think of that.

[Ancalagon]

Olio's getting more scum vibes than milkman, but I dunno.

[Ancalagon]

Olio, definitely.

Vote: Olio

All his "investigations" are of people already alive, which isn't reasonable. Also, if he's scum, Zindy is scum.

Olio seems to be the best choice.

Irrumator, post!

[olio]

Talk about assumptions.

Assumption which can be easily tested with my simple question. Why are you afraid of it?

By the way, why do you think mod would answer a question about inquiries? Don't you think it's pretty much same if I'd ask if the doctor made choice last night?


Ancalagon, you're not making sense. What do you mean with people that are already alive? How does "people being already alive" don't make my choices reasonable? Also, maybe you're getting more vibes from me because I've actually posted more than milkman.

Now, pay attention:
Milkman hasn't yet answered my question why he thinks you're town. Both Canuckle and milkman have treated you like townie since I revealed my result. If milkman really is cop, he is basing that assumption in my result and at the same time he says I'm lying. Please think.

[olio]

Hmm, my question was actually about N9V. Very well:
milkman, why do you think N9V and Ancalagon are townies?

[olio]

By the way, I'm 100% sure that Canuckle will forfeit his plan about lynching Zindaras and adds into my wagon.

[Ancalagon]

Milkman hasn't yet answered my question why he thinks you're town.

By the way, I'm 100% sure that Canuckle will forfeit his plan about lynching Zindaras and adds into my wagon.

Unvote

but only until Milkman answers the question.

[Canucklehead17]

Assumption which can be easily tested with my simple question. Why are you afraid of it?

Answer: I'm not. Really, I'd appreciate the mod clearing this one up for us all.

By the way, why do you think mod would answer a question about inquiries? Don't you think it's pretty much same if I'd ask if the doctor made choice last night?

Sure, good point. Ok, lynch me because you think I asked the mod if scum can night-kill each other. Even if I was scum, I wouldn't consider killing my own buddy, regardless of how it may help in the game. Numbers are better, IMO.

By the way, I'm 100% sure that Canuckle will forfeit his plan about lynching Zindaras and adds into my wagon.

Heh, though that WOULD be funny, no, it's not what I would do. I think it's unwise to be voting off one of the two claimed cops right now. I really think we can clear things up between you and milkman by getting rid of Zindy and seeing what happens overnight. If you do indeed turn out to be cop, I will apologize, admit I was wrong, weep uncontrollably, whatever you want.