Fire Emblem: Awakening Mafia (Game Over)

[zMuffinMan]

i don't know

[T S O]

fantastic

[beastcharizard]

Sakura came to my head if it was my decision. the other person who would cause multiple flips would be good as well. I think PVs play is from town PV but if that lynch goes through it is whatever. Regardless of flip that means that only married people are left and in my mind everyone is a valid target from that point on. I don't care if claimed PR or not. Heck, I would even shot my own family at that point. I would does not mean I am going to because I think they are town but you should get what I mean. The more information we have the better. So I am ultimately for any lynch that gets us any number of flips.

Sakura is just frustrating me so I want her dead.

[PeregrineV]

Sunday check-in, but Monday is when any real actions happens.

[BulbaFenix]

You are taking a statement that could apply to anybody and applying it to TSO.
You are using that statement in your argument/case for TSO being scum.
Do you understand the fallacy in what you are doing?

I suggested that TSO should be JK'd. TSO threw a fit and wanted to know why that made sense. I laid out the reasoning. So yes, while the JK logic could apply to anyone else, the conversation was about TSO specifically. What aren't you understanding?

It seems that where you are arguing for quantity of flips, I'm arguing for quality of flips. Will Sakura's or Titus's lynch yield more flips? Yes. But the question is will they yield the most useful information for the town. With Titus, his lynch or vig would be useless, as we already know the alignment and roles of his parents, and with that, we can pretty much guess his alignment. You can't argue on not knowing Elli's role, because regardless of PA's actual alignment, she'd have to be telling the truth about that, unless you are trying to say that Elli was scum. Again, none of those flips will give town information that we don't already have.

For Sakura it is different. Her death would lead to flips that would give town information that we don't already have. Can we guess at it? Sure, but there is already some paranoia creeping in about GCBC, and such knowledge would be useful. However, does that make Sakura a better lynch than a vig? Well, it depends on if those flips would help the town PRs in deciding their night actions. In that case, it's a definite "no". All that we would get from Sakura's family is alignments, and even if one of them would be scum, all that would do is tell us we're looking for one less than we thought. It's useful for scumhunting during the day, not so much for deciding what needs to be done during the night. In that case, Sakura is a much better vig, since it would still give town the information it needs by the next day.

Then we have you. Sure, it's only 1 flip, but then we have to consider the WIFOM that is generated by your role. Specifically, while you might be ascetic, we can't know for sure whether you're town or scum until you flip. And that distinction changes everything. Consider us. Right now, we're shooting blindly at n3 and hoping to narrow things down enough to hit scum. However, if you're a scum ascetic, all of that is for naught. Shouldn't we know that sooner, rather than later? If you're town, we still need that information as soon as possible, since it would tell us we're on the right track. If you don't get lynched, town is denied that information, and we would be disorganized in the way of night actions. Does Beast vig you or leave you alive? If he vigs you, what do we do with none of the information your lynch could have provided? If he leaves you alive, town will probably want us to track you. And what then? At the most, we'd only confirm you as ascetic, NOT as town. And because of that distinction, town would only want to lynch you tomorrow anyway, meaning that we wasted a track simply because you lived. Why then, if you are going to be lynched anyway, if your flip provides more useful information than all 6 of those other flips put together, and if there is a reason for you to be lynched rather than vigged (Which can't be said for the others.), should you not be lynched today?

My role is no longer WIFOM because
1) You are refusing to try to track me
2) You have stated you are tracking night3 only

1.) No, I said it would be a useless track in the long run. If town would want us to do it, we would, but I'm pointing out that it wouldn't make a difference, and that it makes more sense to lynch you today and enter into the night with more clarity.

2.) For PoE purposes only. However, without knowing whether you're a scum or town ascetic, there's no way of knowing whether this is a good strategy or moot.

Assume you were Beast.
Assume you had three PR claims you could shoot among.
How would you order them based on the knowledge that Beast has?

Besides you, I don't want Beast to shoot any of the PRs. That's what TSO's trying to do.

-Bulba

[Sakura Hana]

So how about this plan, we lynch PV today and bc kills me tonight?

[Nero Cain]

Sakura is just frustrating me so I want her dead.

I am so glad that I'm not the only one. I really think you should have already vigged her and Titus by now though.

[BulbaFenix]

So how about this plan, we lynch PV today and bc kills me tonight?

That's what I've been suggesting all day. I believe that will give town the most information.

-Bulba

[Cephrir]

VC 8.3

PeregrineV 5

[L-1]

(BulbaFenix, TSO, KingdomAces, Insurmountable, Titus)

TSO 1

(Sakura Hana)

Titus 1

(PeregrineV)

zMuffinMan 1

(Nero Cain)

Not Voting 3

(beastcharizard, zMuffinMan, penguin_alien)

6 to lynch.

Deadline: Saturday December 14, 6 PM EST.

[Sakura Hana]

Alright then

Unvote
Vote: PV

That's a hammer

[BulbaFenix]

Nero, JK one of TSO/KA. I think that should give you the best chance of stopping a kill.

-Bulba

[Sakura Hana]

Also bc needs to vig me

[Cephrir]

VC 8.F

PeregrineV 6

[Lynched!]

(BulbaFenix, TSO, KingdomAces, Insurmountable, Titus, Sakura Hana)

Titus 1

(PeregrineV)

zMuffinMan 1

(Nero Cain)

Not Voting 3

(beastcharizard, zMuffinMan, penguin_alien)

6 to lynch.

Deadline: Saturday December 14, 6 PM EST.

[Cephrir]

PeregrineV, Kellam, Town Male Ascetic

, lynched day 8.

It is now night 8. 72 hours. Unlocking QTs.

[Cephrir]

BulbaFenix, ?????

, has been killed night 8.

It is now day 9. With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[KingdomAces]

...

So, quicktopic was being slow, and TSO made his case for why Beast should vig Bulba after deadline. I would have explained why that was a stupid idea anyway, but QT timed me out when I tried to post.

Anyway, the lack of another kill tonight pretty much confirms that Bulba was town. I did say that I wanted to lynch Bulba today in the QT, so I doubt that TSO would have wanted to scumkill Bulba. I really just don't know who this leaves then.

Wait, I forgot we have a JK. Nero, we need a target before we actually get anywhere today.

[Sakura Hana]

Why the hell wasn't I vig'd

[Sakura Hana]

@Mod: I'm V/LA through Monday

[KingdomAces]

Because you're town and the information to be gained from vigging you would be useless.

[Sakura Hana]

well the information gained from vigging bulba is even MORE useless.

[Sakura Hana]

and TSO made his case for why Beast should vig Bulba after deadline.

Also TSO making bc do bad vigs yet again...

Vote: TSO

[KingdomAces]

I don't disagree with that, but I don't think that necessarily makes him scum. Also, we should probably wait for Nero before voting.

[Titus]

Sakura, Beast needs to own his decisions.

Beast and Nero need to comment before determining our next move.

[beastcharizard]

I felt the Sakura thing was a trap so i didn't really want to go there.

I debated on shooting TSO last night to shut him up but I decided I would trust him this one time. Also, i thought I was going to be dead. TSO can't bitch about my kills anymore either.

I feel like vigging Sakura is a waste. If she is to be killed it needs to be through a lynch.

If I had gone with my gut Titus or muffin would have been shot.

[Titus]

Who did you shoot?