Micro 266: Lucky's Greater Idea Christmas Party - Day 4

[JacobSavage]

Vote Count 2.6

agi102 (0) -
Desperado (0) -
aptil (1) - penguin_alien
XScorpion (1) - Looker
penguin_alien (1) - aptil

Looker (3) - mindgamer, XScorpion, Desperado

Not Voting: no one

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is in (expired on 2013-12-15 13:59:00)

Hello, I'll be looking after you whilst Lucky gets sorted. If you send Night Actions to both me and Lucky that would be great.

[aptil]

Well i am going to just do it . PA will be taken care of tomorrow .
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Looker

[penguin_alien]

Well according to me Looker and PA are on the same team . PA stalling her vote is because she thinks just in case something else might come up and looker can be saved .
Looker is staying pretty much clear of the line from PA .

...yes, heaven forbid I give Looker a chance to claim or anything.

[JacobSavage]

Vote Count 2.8

agi102 (0) -
Desperado (0) -
aptil (1) - penguin_alien
XScorpion (1) - Looker
penguin_alien (0) -

Looker (4) - mindgamer, XScorpion, Desperado, aptil

Not Voting: no one

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Looker,

1 - shot PGO Werewolf

, was lynched Day 2!

Night 2 begins now and ends in (expired on 2013-12-17 10:35:43)

[/b]

[JacobSavage]

START OF DAY 3

Desperado

Town Doctor

, was killed Night 2

On a side note, I now have Mod Powers!!

[JacobSavage]

Vote Count 3.0

Mindgamer (0) -
aptil (0) -
XScorpion (0) -
penguin_alien (0) -

Not Voting: EVERYONE

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch!

Day 3 ends in (expired on 2013-12-27 19:52:03)

[aptil]

Only 1kill does that mean : 1 scum faction or doctor saved someone. What do you think?

[Mindgamer]

Only 1kill does that mean : 1 scum faction or doctor saved someone. What do you think?

I think questions like these often indicate newbscum.

Vote: Aptil

[penguin_alien]

But are we better off rolling the dice or no-lynching to play it safe? I tend to think aptil's scum, but if you or XScorpion's also scum we lose even with his lynch.

[aptil]

Only 1kill does that mean : 1 scum faction or doctor saved someone. What do you think?

I think questions like these often indicate newbscum.

Vote: Aptil

Y would only a newbscum do that ? Y not just a newb ? zzzz .

[XScorpion]

I think the correct play here is to no lynch.
If there is only 1 mafia left, then it's 3v1 and we should no lynch to make it a 2v1 lylo tomorrow. This is acceptable.
If there is a mafia and a werewolf left, then lynching a town is bad, and lynching a scum means the other team wins barring power roles (which aren't 100% reliable).
If we no lynch, then we either lose instantly (both town die), have to rely on a power role saving us (one scum kills the other scum who kills a townie = we lose unless there is a PR to save us), or both scum kill each other (best case).

Does anyone disagree?

[penguin_alien]

Nope; sounds right to me.

[Lucky2u]

should be able to return to my duties here, depending on site outages. Thanks for your patience and thanks to Jacob for helping this past night phase.

[Mindgamer]

I disagree because I have a role that might stop scum from killing tonight. So I'd much rather lynch today.

@ Penguin
You consider scumhunting equal to rolling a die?

@ Aptil
It's a scumtell, not a newbtell.

[penguin_alien]

No, we'd be rolling the dice on whether we have one or two scum left; that's not something we can control or influence.

[XScorpion]

If we are lynching today then we should massclaim because I have a (small) chance at catching scum in a lie.
Is there an argument against massclaim?

[Lucky2u]

Vote Count 3.1

Mindgamer (0) -
aptil (1) - Mindgamer
XScorpion (0) -
penguin_alien (0) -

Not Voting: penguin_alien, XScorpion, Aptil

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch!

Day 3 ends in (expired on 2013-12-27 19:52:03)

[Mindgamer]

Chances are pretty good we're in 3v1. I wouldn't call it 'rolling a die'. Even if we are in 2v1v1, lynching isn't disastrous.

I'm not against a mass claim. Aptil or Penguin should probably go first and popcorn style from there. Unless anyone disagrees.

[penguin_alien]

Works for me. Private Investigator.

Popcorn to aptil.

[Mindgamer]

Who did you visit?

[penguin_alien]

Sorry, Desperado N1, aptil N2.

[aptil]

1shot commuter .
Popcorn to mindgamer .

[Mindgamer]

Town Jack of All Trades.
My predecessor chose to do nothing Night one. I used my Cop power on Desperado Night two. I chose him because I thought he was unlikely to die tonight (he was neither scummy nor behaving protown) and he is a hard read for me personally. But yeah... In any case, I still have my Doc and Roleblock power left. That means that if we mislynch today, I have a 50% chance of roleblocking the scum tonight (assuming 3v1). In a 2v1v1 lynching scum gives us a 50% shot at another lynch. I give you that lynching town in 2v1v1 would be bad, but I think the probability of that situation is very low.

[XScorpion]

So I'm town roleblocker. I blocked agi/mindgamer night 1 (which is how I know he didn't submit one of the two kills) and aptil night 2. With the doctor flip, we unfortunately have no idea of knowing if I prevented aptil from killing someone, or if Des saved someone, or if there is only 1 scum left and we both missed.
Now that I've been thinking about it, penguin has to be scum. I blocked aptil, so he didnt submit a kill, and mindgamer can't have submitted a kill on night 1 because I blocked him, so process of elimination means that penguin is scum with 100% certainty.
VOTE: Penguin

[XScorpion]

At that point, if mindgamer was looker's scumbuddy, gg. Otherwise the game is basically over and town wins regardless of 3v1 or 2v1v1 (we can lynch aptil-scum tomorrow if he was looker's scumbuddy).