NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[Empire]

Day 7, Votecount 9

Ser Arthur Dayne (4)

-

pieguyn, Casso the King of Seals, Ms Marangal, Sakura Hana

Casso the King of Seals (3)

-

Ser Arthur Dayne, goodmorning, KoreanBBQ

KoreanBBQ (1)

-

Norlkaz

Not Voting (1)

-

Prophylaxis

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch! Deadline is on March 8th at 3:25 PM EST or in (expired on 2014-03-08 16:22:01).

Mod Notes

-

Nero Cain head of KoreanBBQ is V/LA until next week. Ms Marangal is V/LA for one week.

[Prophylaxis]

PTAP.

Ugh, man, I'm having so much indecision at the moment.

...And then I realize we have 9 people alive, with (likely!) two scum. That means three lynches to go through.

I'll probably hammer somebody in the morning - just doublechecked my schedule and I won't be here @ deadline.

[pieguyn]

I probably won't be around at deadline. I'm still ok with SAD and Casso. I keep hoping SAD is town but I have townreads on just about everyone else at this point and the last thing I need is to waffle myself to shit for no reason

[Norlkaz]

Well, here's hoping my last minute reservations were derpmode.
VOTE: Ser Arthur Dayne

[Empire]

Day 7, Final Votecount

Ser Arthur Dayne (5)(LYNCH)

-

pieguyn, Casso the King of Seals, Ms Marangal, Sakura Hana, Norlkaz

Casso the King of Seals (3)

-

Ser Arthur Dayne, goodmorning, KoreanBBQ

Not Voting (1)

-

Prophylaxis

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch! Deadline is on March 8th at 3:25 PM EST or in (expired on 2014-03-08 16:22:01).

Mod Notes

-

Nero Cain head of KoreanBBQ is V/LA until next week. Ms Marangal is V/LA for one week.

[Empire]

Ser Arthur Dayne,

Vanilla Townie

, lynched Day 7.

It is now Night 7! Deadline is on March 10th at 9:10 AM EST or in (expired on 2014-03-10 10:10:07).

[Empire]

Norlkaz,

Vanilla Townie

, killed Night 7.

It is now Day 8! Deadline is on March 24th at 11:35 AM EST or in (expired on 2014-03-24 11:34:56).

[Empire]

Day 8, Votecount 1

Not Voting (7)

-

Casso the King of Seals, Ms Marangal, Prophylaxis, pieguyn, KoreanBBQ, goodmorning, Sakura Hana

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch! It is now Day 8! Deadline is on March 24th at 11:35 AM EST or in (expired on 2014-03-24 11:34:56).

Mod Notes

-

N/A

[goodmorning]

Can we all just agree that it's Casso then?

[Sakura Hana]

I refuse to believe it's Casso ;_;
Proph+BBQ look more likely to me, with pieguy if one of those fail.
Anyway im more likely to look at Norl's reads atm so I will do that.

[Sakura Hana]

Vote: BBQ

Here's some gut feeling I had from Varsoon flipping town back from D1, hope this is right, it was the one Norl was voting before switching to SAD yesterday.

[KoreanBBQ]

If ppl somehow doesn't have me in the townpile, I'll gladly get myself lynched today.
I can't garner enough of my time to give this game a good reread/reassess and probably will be a vote lender for the rest of the game anyway (just like I have been for last few weeks)

[KoreanBBQ]

VOTE: KBBQ

[pieguyn]

vote: Casso

SAD town means that, given the dynamic D5, Proph is town. both wagons were on town and then he derailed both of them onto zmuffin. given he was voting back and forth for the first part of D5 I don't think this makes sense from a scum POV

the paranoia in me wants to test Mara/GM's daytalk again bc I keep thinking everyone is town but it's probably just paranoia

[KoreanBBQ]

I think this game will be solved if casso -> proph gets lynched in order after me

[pieguyn]

wait do you all think Proph bussed zmuffin?

[Sakura Hana]

If ppl somehow doesn't have me in the townpile, I'll gladly get myself lynched today.
I can't garner enough of my time to give this game a good reread/reassess and probably will be a vote lender for the rest of the game anyway (just like I have been for last few weeks)

Why the heck does AtE get me EVERY... SINGLE... TIME...

Unvote
Vote: Proph

My case on Bert isnt just a pretty thing in my ISO...

P-Ed: Wait what?

Unvote

Ugh i don't even know anymore =/

[Sakura Hana]

I think this game will be solved if casso -> proph gets lynched in order after me

Apparently someone mentioned D1 that you were pretty good at reading Varsoon, yet you thought he was scum when he was not, that's the gut feeling I had from D1 on you, however this doesn't help you in terms of credibility specially with how big my townread on Casso is, would you explain why? and if it's not Casso who else is it?

[pieguyn]

inb4 there were only 4 scum and we're doing all this partner hunting for nothing

[Sakura Hana]

We got flipped Encryptor, Goon and JOAT, there aren't any double kills, and the town side doesn't seem much OP unless you count my role as OP. We had a vig and a gunsmith and no flipped mafia doctor, yet SSK claimed doctor, which means he was trying to fish for a CC, no CC meant no Town doctor imo, so they started taking out the strongest town players, i think we should probably sheep the paragon's reads, and probably look back at what all the NK'd people have in common in terms of reads.

[Sakura Hana]

Oh yeah, and forgot to mention based on flips only i think we're looking at 5 scum and not 4.

[Sakura Hana]

unless you consider JOAT+Goon+Encryptor+Unknown too OP for Vig+Gunsmith+JK+Unknown+Masons+Bunch of VTs.

[Sakura Hana]

errr i mean "Balanced enough"

[pieguyn]

unvote, vote SAD

Larger wagon; Titus can wait.

Bigger wagon.

Unvote, vote Titus

GENERIC INTERACTION ANALYSIS

| denotes responding to a quote or a question, or a vote.
- denotes a passive mention.

Multiple occurrences in the same post are redundant. If a post contains both | and - for the same player, only | is mentioned.

Some | may be demoted to - and vice versa depending on importance.

Code: Select all

geist: ||||||||||||||||||--------
Casso: ||||||||||||||||||-----------
Msmrg: ||||||||||||||---------
F16FF: |||||||||||||||---
Proph: |||||||||||||||---------
pigyn: |||||||||||------
Norlk: ||--
Korea: |||||||||||-------
gdmrn: ||||||-
Sakur: |||||||||||--
SerAD: |||||||---
zMufn: -
Titus: |||||||||||||||||||||||--------

MafiaSSK

: |||||--- (for context)

Breaking this down:

F-16 has been upgraded to a townie read. My initial read on him was pretty weak - basically a self conscious response to "Are you town?", IIRC. I liked the effort he was putting into his posts, and Generic tried to buddy up with F-16 in the early game.

If you want a good sheeting bet f16 is the most town so far but his town piling is at a snails pace right now.

My gut *wants* to say Casso is town - the MafiaSSK interactions with "Why is this wagon forming on X" looked pretty good, but one thing I noticed with Generic is that he kept SSK as his personal punching bag - constant voting and unvoting, though he didn't have too many interactions with Generic (most of those |s were Generic hopping on him). I noticed that Generic constantly voted and unvoted Casso as well, so that gives me some pause. The number of interactions there makes me think that he's probably.. town? I don't think he's going to be lynched toDay or for any other Days to come, so my gut wants me to sort him out to "weak town" and move on from there.

Generic had a spat with pieguyn during my latter skim of his ISO, and accused him of CFTWR, IIRC. I had some tabs queued up with potential interactions to look at, but I closed them accidentally and too lazy to hunt them down. Want to take some time rereading this slot - I cleared him as town early, and some people are saying he's scum and I'm pretty confused.

Generic has little interactions with Norlkaz - want to look there, too. Norlkaz is pretty much the epitome of null this game - can't get much from Llamarble's strange posting style.

Sakura Hana had some Generic interactions scattered around, but again, my gut wants me to clear her based on SSK's comment. I don't really remember much - I'm slotting her as the same spot as Casso.

Ser Arthur Dayne is.. ugh. I really wish I read the thread, when talking to him. He's pulled off several scumtells but something earlier felt like righteous indignation - hard to fake. Going to fencesit here, now. He had some scattershot Generic interactions but again, I forgot about those ones too.

Generic basically had no interaction with zMuffin, and due to that he's become my strongest scumread. None with SSK, either.

Cephrir had the most interactions with Generic (they had a spat somewhere between Day 2) and that gives me pause regarding Titus. Ultimately, I'd like Titus to be lynched at some point because I need her flip to help me figure out the game, and

she's not doing flat-out anything

. Additionally, I don't think I can read her too well and like Ms Marangal said, the reason why I want her to be lynched is a mix between policy and scumread.

Is there any reason why zMuffinMan isn't being pressured? Like, SAD mentioned "Generic has no interactions with zMuffinMan" and no one really followed up on it.

To clarify for the mod -

unvote, vote zMuffinMan

If a Titus wagon re-forms, I'm also willing to revote her to figure out the game state, but that's a ton of interactions with Cephrir.
-----

Everytime I see your "votal analysis," I feel an irresistible urge to insult you. I am really a bad person, lol.

Ugh, how do I explain my analysis methods.

One of the things I like to do in games is to look for lynches that I have a cluster of town reads/people that flipped town on.

If I see mostly town on a lynch, and that lynch has stalled out, chances are pretty good that the person wagoned is scum - because why wouldn't scum want to help want to run them up?

It's the same type of logic I use when analyzing, say, a TOWN TOWN UNKNOWN TOWN TOWN wagon. If the person being wagonned is probably town, and I have a unknown read in the middle of a cluster of town reads, I want that person shot. Scum will be on town lynches to accelerate the mislynch, and scum will usually be on the back end of scum lynches.

The more town that flip, and the more town reads that are obtained, the more useful looking at earlier game voting wagons is - because over the course of the game, voting is the hardest thing to fake.

Words are the easiest thing to fake.

I don't mind mislynching the occasional player when the argument against it is "it might be 6+ town in a row one out of 250 wagons!!1!" because that is rare.

And if you guys (Titus, zMuffin, F-16) want to continue to dismiss is as being 'naive', then be my guest - it's simply how I play, and it's another tool in the toolbox along with interaction and behavioral analysis.

proph

do you usually hunt (or can you show me where you've previously hunted) for scum based solely on the

number

of "interactions" with flipped scum? also, i gather you have experience with generic - is the idea that generic would have fewer interactions with his buddies based on meta or is it purely an assertion?

See like this feels fake and ooc

did you actually read proph's post?

coz he's literally suggesting people are town/scum based purely on the number of interactions. like, read it.

I mean I can pull up a game where I did this recently:



For context, Lucky, Fonti, and BillD were the scum team. Fonti had no interactions with the flipped scum, and BillD had only casual mentions. Lucky shot particularly high because the flipped scum was bussing him.

I Ctrl-F'd an ISO of Generic in a MTGS game (Majora's Mask) and he did not interact with his scumbuddies that much.

I'm scumreading you because the

scumteam did not interact with you at all

. I Ctrl-F'd "zm" when reading SSK's ISO and I only got a nested quote from you. Same with Generic, IIRC. Scum that go out of their way to avoid interacting with each other are probably scum with no confidence in their acting ability.

It's really just basic interaction analysis.

side note,

Want to take some time rereading this slot - I cleared him as town early, and some people are saying he's scum and I'm pretty confused

this looks like scum trying to set up a back door into later changing his read on pieguy and doesn't look like a genuine thought process. "i'm reading pie as town, but since some others are calling him scum, i could be wrong"

Uh, if my townread on someone is solely based on the minuscule chunk of game that I've read and people are calling him scum now, I'm confused!

Now I know that something went on in the middle of the thread that I did not read that caused people to change their view of pieguyn, and I can go look at that.

If you have me as a scumread, SAD, then do you think I'm bussing zMuffin?

Hmm? You should know by now I do reads independent of each other, because people always fall into the predicting-scum-based-on-scumreads that haven't actually flipped which is stupid. For a good example see Pieguy in this game.

Fair enough, I guess.

Proph was bouncing back and forth between the SAD and Titus wagons and then he derailed both of them onto zmuffin. if he's scum idk how much sense this makes given he was originally perfectly fine with SAD/Titus. his trajectory on zmuffin and subsequent interactions also felt legitimate. also people were making fun of his "votal analysis" and I think it'd be even harder to fake this with the knowledge other people were already skeptical of your scumhunting methods

then later on he went for Casso really hard which makes Proph make even less sense as scum if Casso is scum. there were also all the posts where Generic was buddying Bert

on the other hand, even if Casso is scum I can see the Casso push making sense as an extra boost towards endgame and there was also Titus's meta read (but this can be attributed to him being from MTGS and this not being his homesite). what do you think?

[Sakura Hana]

I would look at generic's interaction analysis if i didnt know first hand that generic's interaction analysis is shit to analyse. If both Proph and Norlk are town, then pray tell why scum killed Norlk instead of Proph? reads? pressure? wtf kill?