NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)


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Post Post #8125 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:29 pm

Post by pieguyn »

@Sakura:
In post 8085, pieguyn wrote:
@Sakura:
do you still think Casso is scum and if so do you think Casso is bussing BBQ? and if so what happened to you saying casso wouldn't bus his entire scumteam?
and what do you think of how Nacho is saying I should be able to read you "better than anyone else" while trying to discount my GIF read?
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Post Post #8126 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 8:20 pm

Post by Ms Marangal »

prodded
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Post Post #8127 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:18 pm

Post by Ms Marangal »

god... wtf does nacho become super-town everytime I start doubting my read on their slot
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Post Post #8128 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:38 pm

Post by Ms Marangal »

God... why do I want to lynch Pie everytime he talks..

so, you think Sakura is still town?

and Nero/GIF?
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Post Post #8129 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2014 2:39 am

Post by Prophylaxis »

PTAR, will post more soon.
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Post Post #8130 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:44 am

Post by Empire »

Day 8, Votecount 8
Casso the King of Seals (2)
-
pieguyn, Prophylaxis

KoreanBBQ (2)
-
Ms Marangal, Sakura Hana

Prophylaxis (1)
-
Casso the King of Seals


Not Voting (2)
-
goodmorning, KoreanBBQ


With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch! It is now Day 8! Deadline is on March 24th at 11:35 AM EST or in (expired on 2014-03-24 11:34:56).


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Post Post #8131 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2014 6:28 am

Post by goodmorning »

In post 8120, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 8118, goodmorning wrote:
In post 8113, Casso the King of Seals wrote:I'd rather lynch BBQ or the two methinks - look at the dead people. Dead peole who died before masons. Who died before *apparently confirmed daychat sans Encryptor* masons.
I mean, c;mon.
Why on earth is this hydra so utterly dissonant?
Different people with radically different play styles formed over a long period of time have completely different approaches to the game and also different reads?

What a surprise!
Wow, this post totally addresses the point I was trying to make.

I think Sakura is Town.
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Post Post #8132 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2014 11:17 am

Post by Sakura Hana »

In post 8125, pieguyn wrote:
@Sakura:
In post 8085, pieguyn wrote:
@Sakura:
do you still think Casso is scum and if so do you think Casso is bussing BBQ? and if so what happened to you saying casso wouldn't bus his entire scumteam?
and what do you think of how Nacho is saying I should be able to read you "better than anyone else" while trying to discount my GIF read?
No, I actually think you and BBQ are scum, because apparently you forgot about your "Amazing Tell" that you found for me as well.
I bloom in spring?
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Post Post #8133 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:27 pm

Post by KoreanBBQ »

R u serious
you're willing to discard all the obvtown stuff pie has done for that shoddy "lolamazingtell"
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Post Post #8134 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:28 pm

Post by KoreanBBQ »

And I know it's coming

it's gonna be tomorrow to elaborate myself bc right now I got called in for an emergency shift
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Post Post #8135 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:40 am

Post by KoreanBBQ »

Let's start with the easy mode.

1. Overdrive conviction is something you can't find on pie's scumplay and can be only found in town-pie Y/N

If you choose N, please provide with the counterexample.
If you can't provide a counterexample, case closed.
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Post Post #8136 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:44 am

Post by KoreanBBQ »

I played with scum pie three times, two of them being scum with him. Overdrive conviction is something that scum-pie can't fake yet.
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Post Post #8137 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:48 am

Post by KoreanBBQ »

In post 8091, Prophylaxis wrote:Going to drop this here, and analyze tomorrow.

Looking purely at vote counts + PoE make me think Casso/KoreanBBQ scumteam is a lock.

Spoiler: votals
KoreanBBQ (6) -
Brian Skies
,
Tammy
,
MafiaSSK
, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, pieguyn

MafiaSSK
(5) - KoreanBBQ, Sakura Hana,
Cephrir
,
DOMO
, pieguyn
KoreanBBQ (4) -
MafiaSSK
, Casso the King of Seals,
Generic
,
roflcopter


Stuffed Crust
(5) - pieguyn,
Desperado
,
DOMO
,
Cephrir
, KoreanBBQ
KoreanBBQ (4) -
MafiaSSK
, Casso the King of Seals,
Generic
,
roflcopter


DOMO
(5) -
BROseidon, Desperado
, Sakura Hana,
Stuffed Crust
,
Generic


Stuffed Crust
(5) -
Cephrir,
KoreanBBQ, Sakura Hana,
DOMO, Desperado


Casso the King of Seals (5) -
zMuffinMan
, goodmorning, pieguyn,
Generic
,
Bert


Stuffed Crust
(6) - Sakura Hana,
DOMO, Cephrir
, KoreanBBQ,
geists, Desperado


F-16_Fighting_Falcon
(6) -
BROseidon, Ser Arthur Dayne, DOMO
, MC Maraca, Casso the King of Seals,
Bert


Stuffed Crust
(6) -
Cephrir, Desperado
, Sakura Hana, KoreanBBQ,
geists
, pieguyn
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
(6) -
BROseidon, Ser Arthur Dayne, DOMO
, MC Maraca, Casso the King of Seals,
Bert


Sakura Hana (10) -
Tammy
, Casso the King of Seals,
DOMO, Ser Arthur Dayne
, Sakura Hana,
geists, Desperado
, KoreanBBQ, MC Maraca,
Bert


MafiaSSK
(7) - Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, KoreanBBQ,
Bert
,
MC Maraca
,
Ser Arthur Dayne
, pieguyn

Stuffed Crust
(11) (LYNCH) -
Cephrir, geists, Tammy, Desperado, Bert
, Sakura Hana,
MafiaSSK
,
F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Norlkaz
, pieguyn, KoreanBBQ

Ser Arthur Dayne
(5) - Casso the King of Seals,
Bert, Desperado, Cephrir, DOMO


MafiaSSK
(8) -
zMuffinMan
,
geists, Desperado
, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana,
Bert,
Generic
,
Cephrir


Casso the King of Seals (6) - goodmorning,
DOMO, Norlkaz, BROseidon
,
Generic
,
Bert

MafiaSSK
(5) -
geists, Desperado
, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana,
Cephrir


Desperado
(8) - MC Maraca, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana,
Generic
,
geists, Cephrir, Bert, Ser Arthur Dayne

Casso the King of Seals (5) - goodmorning,
BROseidon
,
zMuffinMan
,
Desperado, DOMO


Desperado
(10)(LYNCH) - MC Maraca, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana,
Generic
,
Cephrir, Ser Arthur Dayne, geists
, KoreanBBQ, pieguyn,
Bert
Strange. Looking purely on votecount actually makes me and Casso town as fuck and condemns Sakura.
So you should elaborate on that "votecount" reads a bit more.
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Post Post #8138 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:50 am

Post by KoreanBBQ »

And also, why didn't you mark the masons pink?
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Post Post #8139 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:58 am

Post by KoreanBBQ »

And the true VC coloring should be unbiased, which means you're not allowed to color your name town.

KoreanBBQ (6) -
Brian Skies
,
Tammy
,
MafiaSSK
, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, pieguyn

MafiaSSK
(5) - KoreanBBQ, Sakura Hana,
Cephrir
,
DOMO
, pieguyn
KoreanBBQ (4) -
MafiaSSK
, Casso the King of Seals,
Generic
, roflcopter

Stuffed Crust
(5) - pieguyn,
Desperado
,
DOMO
,
Cephrir
, KoreanBBQ
KoreanBBQ (4) -
MafiaSSK
, Casso the King of Seals,
Generic
, roflcopter

DOMO
(5) -
BROseidon, Desperado
, Sakura Hana,
Stuffed Crust
,
Generic


Stuffed Crust
(5) -
Cephrir,
KoreanBBQ, Sakura Hana,
DOMO, Desperado


Casso the King of Seals (5) -
zMuffinMan
,
goodmorning
, pieguyn,
Generic
, Bert

Stuffed Crust
(6) - Sakura Hana,
DOMO, Cephrir
, KoreanBBQ,
geists, Desperado


F-16_Fighting_Falcon
(6) -
BROseidon, Ser Arthur Dayne, DOMO, MC Maraca
, Casso the King of Seals, Bert


Stuffed Crust
(6) -
Cephrir, Desperado
, Sakura Hana, KoreanBBQ,
geists
, pieguyn
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
(6) -
BROseidon, Ser Arthur Dayne, DOMO, MC Maraca
, Casso the King of Seals, Bert

Sakura Hana (10) -
Tammy
, Casso the King of Seals,
DOMO, Ser Arthur Dayne
, Sakura Hana,
geists, Desperado
, KoreanBBQ,
MC Maraca
, Bert

MafiaSSK
(7) - Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, KoreanBBQ, Bert,
MC Maraca
,
Ser Arthur Dayne
, pieguyn

Stuffed Crust
(11) (LYNCH) -
Cephrir, geists, Tammy, Desperado
, Bert, Sakura Hana,
MafiaSSK
,
F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Norlkaz
, pieguyn, KoreanBBQ

Ser Arthur Dayne
(5) - Casso the King of Seals, Bert,
Desperado, Cephrir, DOMO


MafiaSSK
(8) -
zMuffinMan
,
geists, Desperado
, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, Bert,
Generic
,
Cephrir


Casso the King of Seals (6) -
goodmorning, DOMO, Norlkaz, BROseidon
,
Generic
, Bert
MafiaSSK
(5) -
geists, Desperado
, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana,
Cephrir


Desperado
(8) -
MC Maraca
, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana,
Generic
,
geists, Cephrir
, Bert,
Ser Arthur Dayne

Casso the King of Seals (5) -
goodmorning, BROseidon
,
zMuffinMan
,
Desperado, DOMO


Desperado
(10)(LYNCH) -
MC Maraca
, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana,
Generic
,
Cephrir, Ser Arthur Dayne, geists
, KoreanBBQ, pieguyn, Bert
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Post Post #8140 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:05 am

Post by KoreanBBQ »

In post 8139, KoreanBBQ wrote:KoreanBBQ (4) - MafiaSSK, Casso the King of Seals, Generic, roflcopter
Wagon like this probably mean that Proph and Casso aren't scum together, even though Nacho is fully capable of messing with VC like that as scum.
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Post Post #8141 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:06 am

Post by KoreanBBQ »

Hmm
Actually it doesn't make Casso THAT town (compared to how town it makes me), but nonetheless.
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Post Post #8142 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:07 pm

Post by Casso the King of Seals »

In post 8123, pieguyn wrote:
hey Nacho speaking of SAD I have a question

I was looking at some old SAD games near D7 end and remember xenoblade? I'm sure you do and I'm p sure you misread the fuck out of him in that game. why did you feel so sure about him scum here after that kind of misread? or was that just you pushing a mislynch

and if you're town, what you're doing is the best way to lose games. you're playing up paranoia about just about every single person here besides Sakura. the whole point of POE'ing the game is that you DON'T NEED TO GO BACK AND RECONSIDER YOUR TOWNREADS EVEN IF SOME OF THE REMAINING PEOPLE FLIP TOWN. if you do that, it defeats the whole idea of POE. if you have a townblock of 5 people and then everyone besides them and 2 other people flip town, you don't go back and fucking lynch through the townblock, you lynch the remaining people. your behavior here is consistent with scum needing to push mislynch after mislynch in order to win as opposed to town uncertainty. this is also the exact opposite of how you navigated the endgame in Mistakes UPick where you were honing in on one person (catboi) and is consistent with what I remember you doing in marketplace as scum

Sakura makes the most sense as your partner bc running her to L-1, staging a breakdown and a shitton of scum theater about it, and causing chaos at deadline seems like a legitimate scum tactic and smth you would do. and you two are sticking together and not expressing much suspicion of each other (and when I pressure Sakura about it she keeps ignoring me)

my read on you is entirely POE. I've outright said you're scum bc I can't see anyone else as scum, so why are you asking me this question? this entire paragraph feels like you're trying to smokescreen me by asking me a bunch of questions that have nothing to do with my actual point and there's ATF in there to boot. the constant questions about "who's my partner" also make sense in this context
In post 8105, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 7947, pieguyn wrote:the problem I'm having is there's no one else left. I have townreads of varying degrees on everyone else leaving SAD and Casso. if Casso is town it's SAD/Proph and I keep thinking Proph is town
After SAD flipped town, you should have gone into reassessing mode. Why haven't you? Why aren't you more heavily considering Proph-scum?
In post 7988, pieguyn wrote:SAD town means that, given the dynamic D5, Proph is town. both wagons were on town and then he derailed both of them onto zmuffin. given he was voting back and forth for the first part of D5 I don't think this makes sense from a scum POV
Why not? I had to have done the same D1: derail BBQ and SC wagons onto Sakura (town or scum) onto scum. Do you really think it was Proph that swung the wagon onto Muffin, and why?
In post 7998, pieguyn wrote:Proph was bouncing back and forth between the SAD and Titus wagons and then he derailed both of them onto zmuffin. if he's scum idk how much sense this makes given he was originally perfectly fine with SAD/Titus. his trajectory on zmuffin and subsequent interactions also felt legitimate.
Why don't you think it was possible he thought the push on Muffin wouldn't get through? Why did the trajectory on Muffin + subsequent interactions feel nor-scumbuddy?
In post 8027, pieguyn wrote:I found a really awesome tell on GIF and if he's scum here that means said tell is wrong.
I don't think your tell is accurate. Take it away, are you still confident GiF is town?
I have no energy for mafia atm. I have strong townreads on BBQ, Sakura, and Proph and I need to figure out where I'm going terribly wrong and I literally do not have enough time and energy to figure this out right now. I won't tolerate any lynch besides you today bc you're literally the last one left and I was confident enough about those reads that I can say there's no way 2 of them are wrong

if Proph is scum, what was he trying to do there? if he wanted a mislynch, he could have just stayed on SAD/Titus, and on the other hand, if he was bussing, he probably would have gone for zmuffin sooner instead of bouncing back and forth for a while. it could be a bus but not sure atm

it is possible, but why don't you go one step further and try to figure out IF that's actually what he was thinking or not? there was support all around for a zmuffin lynch and given how low he was on a lot of people's POE lists he was almost certainly going to be lynched at some point. this feels like you're trying to smokescreen me by asking me questions I can't answer. the trajectory is kind of hard to explain bc it's mostly gut but all of his posts seemed like they were coming from an angle of trying to figure out zmuffin's alignment and his push was matched with a solid level of aggression as the evidence built up.

no, but why should I take away a tell that's 100%? or are you just trying to manipulate me into following you on BBQ?
In post 8106, Casso the King of Seals wrote:What happened to the counterwagon tell? How exactly did you drop that strong towntell so... easily? Why did you stop pushing Sakura?
Nacho what the hell

you ask me why I'm not reevaluating my reads, but then when Proph does
that exact same thing
you start attacking him for it?

this makes no sense. this whole thing feels like you're just BS'ing as opposed to actually trying to figure shit out
In post 8119, Casso the King of Seals wrote:I have had moments of paranoia, sure, but in the end the townSakura that showed up here was the old town Sakura levels that you couldn't quite reach before. I have seen scumgames where you've attempted to replicate it, and you've come close, but you haven't been able to reach it quite yet.

Which is why pie's read on you is worrying: he should be able to see that better than anyone else.
why do you think the fact I'm not sure about Sakura is worrying considering

1. you have experience with me and Sakura in the same game and how I'm always paranoid as fuck about her? like really? I find it impossible that you actually believe I can read Sakura "better than anyone else". remember pick & ban? I'm almost positive there was some discussion about how I'm always paranoid of her in that game and you were there to see it (and I know you saw it bc you commented about my Sakura push in that game and said I was doing a "bangup job scumhunting").
2. she's not even my first pick for 2nd scum right now. she's just the one who makes the most sense as your partner. and the reason I don't have her as first pick is, OH LOOK AT THAT, I had such a strong townread on her (I even posted a massive towncase on her earlier)


tl;dr: you're asking a bunch of questions to lead everyone around in a circle so you don't get lynched. plus there is so much cognitive dissonance here it's not even funny and I get the feeling you're just BS'ing at this point. and not to mention I'm way better at reading GIF than I am at Sakura. so the fact that you're selectively discounting my GIF read and then holding ME to a BOP of reading SAKURA is, guess what? scummy as fuck. die :>
Why was I so confident when I found SAD scum as opposed to Xenoblade? Well, in Xenoblade, SAD was a lurkfucking and didn't do shit and the reason I found him scummy was thanks to a faulty POE process where I was town reading all of the scum. Here, he had shit interactions with scum and was scummy in an active way, and thus I felt a hell of a lot better about it.

In Mistakes uPick, I lost. In Marketplace, I pushed hard for mislynches in a pretty systematic way until LyLo when I was sitting on my hands and waiting for an opportunity to quickhammer. My zeroing and killing time was when I zeroed in on and killed SAD, but that didn't result in good things so why exactly do you expect me to continue playing in the same exact way? Every single person alive was a townread for me at some point: considering I'm looking for two scum, that should be a bit of a problem, don't you think?

You are POEing me as one scum when two need to be found. I am not scum. This means there's something fundamentally wrong with your process so of course I'm going to challenge you on it: when you don't feel good about me being scum when you read my posts and when you have absolutely no idea who my partner would be, there's a problem and you should be reanalyzing instead of just going along with the lynch.

Why is it an invalid move for Proph to move off from SAD/Titus and distance for a little while? Why would he move onto Muffin earlier if he was looking to bus?

I'm asking you questions you can't answer because they're holes in your read.

I'm asking you to take away the tell because it's probably not 100%.

I am asking Proph where he made switches and why he made them: one of the great parts about reevaluating is that it's supposed to be fairly transparent as opposed to switches that just happen. My problems with the changes obviously aren't because there were changes, but because there were changes for no reason.

You know Sakura better than anyone else in this game. I would expect you to be able to see what makes her town, what makes her scum better than anyone else in the game regardless of whether you have a tendency to scumread her or not.
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Post Post #8143 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:46 pm

Post by Ms Marangal »

Why so you think 5 scum over 4? I am finding it pretty difficult to find two scum via associations among living players. I have been operating on one remaining scum for that reason.
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Post Post #8144 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:18 pm

Post by Casso the King of Seals »

Vig + Jailkeeper + Masons + Gunsmith seems excessive against a JOAT, Encryptor and not-Roleblocker (I refuse to believe scum would kill RC if they could just Roleblock him). All of those roles are fairly powerful, scum counters so far not so much so.
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Post Post #8145 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:35 pm

Post by Ms Marangal »

rhouht there was a maf. doc flip?

and, I dont really agree Vig isnt that powerful a role, especially when it serves to be a miller as well. encryptor is somewhat powerful, but... and, if the game is mostly vt/goon, the jk is rendered pretty much useless and ( I think) the mass claim has proven as such alomg with tje dead townsmen
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Post Post #8146 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:38 pm

Post by Ms Marangal »

also, depending on the powers empire gave the JOAT, it can be an extemely powerful role
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Post Post #8147 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:47 pm

Post by Ms Marangal »

id also like it if you could answer my question on sak. I am confused as to where you stand on her and why
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Post Post #8148 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:24 pm

Post by Prophylaxis »

Alright, time to catch up on this game.
In post 8098, Casso the King of Seals wrote: @Proph - you think their prior proof is questionable? Also, what's your case on me other than 'oddly easy and available wagon', natch?
Just a bit paranoid, is all.

The "case" on you is simply wagon analysis, and PoE. Llamarble had the scumteam pinned down to {SAD, BBQ, Casso} and I want to carry his torch.

F-16_Fighting_Falcon
(6) -
BROseidon, Ser Arthur Dayne, DOMO
,
MC Maraca
, Casso the King of Seals,
Bert


Ser Arthur Dayne
(5) - Casso the King of Seals,
Bert, Desperado, Cephrir, DOMO


These wagons make you extraordinarily likely to be scum - hence why I bolded them.
In post 8138, KoreanBBQ wrote:And also, why didn't you mark the masons pink?
They're effectively confirmed town, yes, but left them blank due to paranoia.
In post 8139, KoreanBBQ wrote:And the true VC coloring should be unbiased, which means you're not allowed to color your name town.
---------

Logic/PoE time - let's break the game down into chunks.

Current playerlist:

Casso the King of Seals (Vanilla)
Ms Marangal (Mason)
Prophylaxis (Vanilla)
pieguyn (Vanilla)
KoreanBBQ (Vanilla)
goodmorning (Mason)
Sakura Hana (Unclaimed)

Removing myself and the masons from the list.

That leaves four people:

Casso the King of Seals (Vanilla)
pieguyn (Vanilla)
KoreanBBQ (Vanilla)
Sakura Hana (Unclaimed)

I think that pieguyn's behavior has been very solid, and I'm not sure why people have been expressing suspicion of him. He's trying to solve the game and doing it in a logical fashion.

Sakura Hana's mostly there because I think Casso and KoreanBBQ are the remaining scum. I'm a bit troubled by her because she's not doing any work to solve the endgame
at all
- she's just.. there, and that's troublesome. I don't think she would be left unclaimed if she was scum, I think - that's a pretty ballsy move to make that invites suspicion and doesn't really have scum motivation in doing so. She also has lack of self-awareness.

That leaves Casso, KoreanBBQ.

I want to lynch Casso first, and if he flips scum, lynch KoreanBBQ after, and that should win the game.

The vote counts I pulled up make him (Casso) very likely to be scum, and KoreanBBQ has nonexistent interactions with zMuffinMan. I would like to lynch Casso first, as I believe that he has a higher chance of being scum than KoreanBBQ. If either of those two flip town (I doubt they will), then I'm open to looking at Sakura.

Pull heads out of rectums, and let's lynch Casso.
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Post Post #8149 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:34 pm

Post by KoreanBBQ »

So when I flip town, Sakura goes next?

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