Micro 303: Tarot uPick - Game Over!

[GuyInFreezer]

I agree he sounds bit blunt but I've been liking PA's posts though

[GuyInFreezer]

Especially his reaction to Garruk's day

vig

cop stuff.

[GuyInFreezer]

I townread these following people:

• Medea the Alien (Liked PA's posts)
  
• orcinus_theoriginal (I don't feel the vibe I felt in NY167 from you. In Vesperia I did feel it from you but I let it slide convincing myself that I'm probably thinking too much about it ;-;)
  
• Nazarene (Hated. Even though his hated mechanic gone by D2 makes me feel kinda iffy)

So if Kagami is not scum then that leaves me with:

• aldusskel
  
• Garruk Relentless

I find the way Kagami claimed vig and her follow up somewhat town but that's what I do as scum to get out of the heat sometimes: exotic fakeclaim.
Also, 327 could be fishing for protective roles, and 358 could be easily fishing for orc's role.
I've been silently observing Kagami bc her posts has been... exotic. I've never seen Kagami being full of ego before, which is part of the reason I went for her N1, thinking that if scumteam contained Kagami, she's probably the one who would make a kill. Now I got the result that I kinda expected to see, but claiming vig and stuff made me even more confused. Part of me kinda want to just lynch her anyway but if she's town it's LyLo tomorrow ._.

So... help?

[Nazarene]

The Heads of the Hydra feel that the scum is/are within the following:

Kagami
Medea
Ald

The Heads of the Hydra furthermore feel that Medea would be the ideal lynch for today, since that slot's flip would yield the most interesting associative reads and other connections. Post 354 is meh and could very well be a bus vote. In fact, we predicted that Medea would strongly push for kag's lynch.

-A

[GuyInFreezer]

Am I the only one in this game who is townreading medea?

[Nazarene]

Let me add to that.

Gif, I can see why you think the reaction to the daycop was townish. I thought so at first. But when I saw it again, I liked it less and less and 233 conveys exactly what I think about it, especially how the reads were just there to drive attention away. This might actually be

the

reason why bert was NK'd, kag/med scumteam anyone?

I can't see however how you think any of her other posts are town since they all give me the chills. They all look so shallow and fake when you really look at them. Can you explain why their other posts look good?

If you feel really badly about the hated mechanic, it makes sense with our flavor and I can claim it if you really want us to.

Ald's latest post has a shit readslist in them because I feel reasonably confident that all his scumreads are town. I get one feeling that he's sort of buddying up to kag, another that he just hasn't read the thread at all.

Kagami has been all around scummy and has a guilty on her, so yeah.

P-edit: am I not just a nice guy for explaining?

-Tier

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Yeah I sort of want naz to claim everything associated with their hated mechanic

Excluding, of course, any other abilities you might have

[Kagami]

Btw, mass claim is stupid (especially if you plan to lie), but mass flavor claim would be of value. The actual roles seem inscrutable enough.

[Nazarene]

Then what would the benefit of a mass flavor claim be, given that the roles are inscrutable? None of them would mean anything anyway.

The Heads of the Hydra will full claim the Hated mechanic. This Hydra was Hated Day 1. Doubters may look to this Head's crumb soon after the Hated claim:

Are they any conditions under which you become un-hated?

Yes. They are innocuous and we will let you know when they arrive, but none of them are relevant

today

.

[Kagami]

Why not claim "hated for day 1?"

The roles are inscrutable, but they make sense. Flavor claiming now makes it harder to fake-claim tomorrow, but does so without directly revealing roles.

[GuyInFreezer]

I can't see however how you think any of her other posts are town since they all give me the chills. They all look so shallow and fake when you really look at them. Can you explain why their other posts look good?

I liked PA's general contribution level and my gut liked her posts too.
I'll go over their posts again probably tomorrow and evaluate again to see if I see your point.

[Cabd]

Cabd head V/LA three days because sick.

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 2.2
kagami - 2 (GuyInFreezer, Medea the Alien)
Medea the Alien - 1 (orcinus_theoriginal)

Deadline March 14, 11:59 PM US Eastern Time (GMT-4)

Not voting: alduskkel, kagami, Garruk Relentless, Nazarene

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Nightfall is in (expired on 2014-03-31 20:59:00)

Mod Notes:

Cabd head of Medea the Alien is V/LA through 3/23
-

[Nazarene]

This Head of the Hydra is V/LA until the end of the weekend.

-A

[Medea the Alien]

...so much for giving Cabd space to sort orcinus.

Last I heard from Cabd, he was gung-ho on lynching Kagami in light of a claimed investigative result. I'm actually inclined to lynch Kagami today as well, seeing as some things just don't add up to the pro-town town-Kagami mindset I remember from other games of hers.

Saying that she was planning on conf-towning herself with this supposed vig shot and so kept a low profile Day One. Which is all well and good, but deliberately playing with the goal of just making it through the day is scummy, and as such tends to attract town power roles. And not likely the protective ones either. More like investigative ones...oh, wait.

Not scummy per se, but in her set-up spec she talks about the drive and the light, assigning passive powers to the drive for flipped town and the passive power to the light for her claimed role. If flavor was as deliberate as she's suggesting, that seems odd. Like actual powers don't fit right or something.

Gif is your investigative role 1-shot?

VOTE: nazarene

Yo I'm just trying to gauge the likelyhood of gif getting a false positive.

Gif, you don't actually have to tell me your role but you may tell me if it's likely to get false positives.

The role fish here pings a lot. But given likely set-up features, I'm not sure if it was coming from clueless scum or town baiting a trap.

Third pick for scum is medea, in the event that I had no scum on my wagon.

Medea should pretty much know I'm town, as scum-kagami would have no chance at all of not hammering her during the daycopping thing. Scum-kagami was obviously in a tight spot, and would have been very happy to draw some suspicion that she could potentially get out of, while still being able to shift the blame to Garruk. I also find it on that Cabd doesn't seem too concerned about orc's very obvious errors and behavior that is highly reminiscent of the Tales game he just modded.

The suggestion here that scum-Kagami would have hammered a blatant reaction test to stave off the lynch for one more day is lousy. Yes, people would have been annoyed at Garruk, but hammering there would have been pretty obvious scum. And as far as getting out of trouble with it, it seems that the whole reaction test/ploy did that pretty handily for you anyways. After our wagon took off, yours never got above two, and spent most of the time at one vote: TIP. The only time it came back at all was Perpetual Nonsense voting you...

This diversion:

Q: Why are we not massclaiming? Seems good here.

as Garruk's entrance seriously hurts my town read on them. No comment on investigative results after being so hot to trot on their own 'investigative result' before. I do tend to think that if aspects of the set-up are as they seem from flips and some things have happened as stated, mass claim might not be as damaging as normal. At least the non-passive abilities.

I think scum is in {orc, Garruk, Naz, GIF}.

More later when I'm not dead tired.

So we, you, and Kagami (who killed someone) are town? More on that would be super, because that's a heck of a list.

I think flavor-claiming can't hurt, given the uPick aspect. And we're rolling along in that direction anyways with the number of players who've soft-claimed flavor. It is true that it reduces flexibility for any scum fakeclaims.

So in short, I think Kagami's likely scum. Alduskkel looks bad for coming in with little to say about the Kagami situation, as does Garruk. I'd be shocked if there isn't scum somewhere in that group, if not both scum. Nazarene, I tend to think is well-intentioned town, and the apparent lack of long-term impediment with the Hated modifier claim is the only thing that makes me leery of just tossing them into the town pile. GiF is clearly in my town pile, and orcinus, really not sure. I'd feel better if Cabd had finished his plan, whatever it was. And if those posts were to come back.

--PA

[Nazarene]

Okay, let me first say that I'm

against

mass flavor claim. And more or less because of this inconsistency in kagami's posting, in which she shows that roles are not inscrutable.

He had already soft-claimed The Sun, and there's no reasonable interpretation of that card that implies an investigator or something that scum might be afraid of. He hadn't softed anything threatening to scum either. There's no motivation for killing him if I were scum.

The roles are inscrutable, but they make sense. Flavor claiming now makes it harder to fake-claim tomorrow, but does so without directly revealing roles.

I will flavorclaim, but just to make the hated thing all click in your minds.
We are the hanged man.

Light: Overcoming the ego, changing life, a new sight of the world

And this explains day 1 hated.

-Tier

[Kagami]

Those two statements are actually quite consistent. I'd never have guessed his real role from his flavor, but I'd be very, very suspicious if he fake-claimed investigator, because of the flavor claim.

Firstly, I definitely believe the hanged man claim on the basis that it seemed like something somebody was sure to pick for a mafia game, and thus would be a very daring fake-claim. Hated seems like a bit of an odd modifier to get out of it, but whatever.

In any case, it sounds like you agree with my setup-spec theory, at least to some extent, and are pointing out that the "light" bit is evidence both of your hated claim and your town status. GiF as a follower is a bit surprising to me (IC makes way more sense), so I'm not completely sold on my own theory. If it's right though, then my vig claim should be fairly compelling.

[GuyInFreezer]

Actually my role makes a lot of sense with my flavor.

[GuyInFreezer]

But I have no intention to fullclaim.

[Kagami]

cool, if my setup spec theory is correct, then we should def flavor claim and look into "shadow" readings.


Anyway, I'd like to re-emphasize: What scum would kill PN over GiF or Naz, who were almost universally townread and would actually be useful to town if left alive?

The fact that it was PN who died should pretty strongly indicate that it was a vig kill. PN would kind of be a bad scum kill even if he were an IC / very obv-town.

If you think scum-kagami would have killed a person who was suspecting me, there would still be much better choices (Naz being an obvious one).

[Kagami]

I did think about shooting Medea, though, but I wasn't sure of Garruk's alignment (and still aren't). I'm wondering if the setup was designed such that optimal night action involves vig-ing the tether.

[Kagami]

EBWOP: (and still am not)

[Alduskkel]

I'm townreading Kagami (no scum would shoot PN), Medea, and myself of course.

The list of people I thought the scum were in is roughly in order of scummiest to towniest.

BTW, my card is Art.

[Alduskkel]

Also, if I fullclaimed it would probably soft confirm me as town.

[Nazarene]

I still don't think PN is an implausible NK and I still don't see how he is a plausible vigkill, he was pretty obviously town with his late-day posting and medea would have made much more sense for a vigkill.

Ald, stop being a lazy fuck and do an elaborate readslist. By that, I mean at least a few sentences on every player. I'm very much wanting to vote you if it weren't for the medea flip I want badly.

Ald, if you think claiming doesn't hurt town, go ahead. Exactly how confirmes would you be?