Open 548-WiFom City: The Invasion (Over)

[Greymarble]

ika kill makes notscience scum unlikely. why's he gonna kill the one guy who was actively defending him?

Vote: IAAU

IMHO this is a scum claim.

I was wondering who shoots Ika. Him.

Llamarble less convinced but still fine with this, this is approved.

[Greymarble]

Also we'd like to note that WIFOM requires third level thinking, and there's no indication MTD moved beyond first level thinking in the (complex) traitor role. Third level thinking should only be expected from scum who are playing well, or at least have the confidence to

believe

they are playing well. Or the self awareness to realize they are playing poorly and try to gain some victory from that.

But that's besides the point. Lynch IAAU. Win game.

[Greymarble]

The post Grey mentioned, the initial vote for NS from IAAU (random votes from scum are slightly more often for buddies due to inadequate mixing), and MTD's "no idea might be scum" (at the time IAAU looked fine but MTD may have overestimated his scumminess due to being a buddy) on IAAU all fit as scum interactions.

On his own, I don't see any significant problems with IAAU but everyone has reasons to regard them as town and the interactions do fit, so I'm fine with this

[Shockwave Rider]

Actually having some doubts about Hoopla scum. I'm thinking is Hoopla the kind of person who wouldn't pick any modifications? I wouldn't tend to think so but I don't really know who would either.

So Aisa is confirmed town now I think?

I iso'ed Profont because they're the player I don't have much of a feel for. overall I think they're thought processes seem genuine. I like their approach to the Dragon Alliance wagon. It's similar to mine and I think is coming from a town place. I'm not reading them strongly town but I'd definitely still prefer a Hoopla lynch.

Greymarble makes an interesting point about IAAUN.

[Greymarble]

Hoopla can be outthought when it comes to mechanics, but it's VERY difficult.

(and everyone will assume you're scum and lynch you if you somehow outwit her)

That being said, well, we can discuss mechanics later, but I'd tend to think Hoopla would pick either two power roles or zero, due to the nature of the power roles.

[Greymarble]

She'd also have prompted the mod to clarify if traitors flip traitor or not rather than fucking up the setup, because she would have analyzed her choices like that.

[Greymarble]

Although I do tend to think she'd lean zero just because of the number of confirmable roles there. Only the tracker/Gooncop are really safe to fakeclaim. But we can setup speculate after we win.

[Greymarble]

Okay, time to go fourth level.

There are six possible town roles. Of them, 3 cannot be fakeclaimed (bodyguard, Vigilante, Innocent Child) and two are dangerous to fakeclaim since they're confirmable (tracker, roleblocker). You'd need rolecop to adequately fake roleblocker. This leaves you with a mass of confirmable townies. This means that selecting extra roles for scum is full on nightmare mode. It doesn't even matter that the town gets meh roles, they're meh roles that are confirmable. In addition the tracker makes the rolecop potentially horrible - tracking a rolecop lynches scum and confirms town. Goddamn disaster area.

But the moderator made an important setup shift inbetween start of game and N1 - he removed the "Recruited Goon" role and replaced it with a "you don't know if the traitor was recruited" mechanic. This gives scum leeway to fakeclaim even if they lose two partners. Moreover, the speculation occurred BEFORE the traitor flip, because the mod made the alteration immediately, in the mod flavor.

This change was not initiated by the moderator, because the moderator is fine with recruited goons at start of day. It was not made on behest of the town. Therefore it was made because the scum team argued with the moderator. Ergo, the scumteam contains a member that has enough experience and intelligence to debate setup with a moderator and win.

Hoopla. IAAU. ABR. And maaaybe Wisdom on sheer force of logical analysis (but he's confirmed town anyway so well etc.). And outside on Profont, since that's not a stupid hydra. But overall, whoever is on the scumteam is capable of engaging in high level setup speculation and fakeclaim preparation, and it's not NS or MTD.

[Hoopla]

Interestingly, in two recent runs of this setup, three of the current alive players have been scum in this setup:

Open 539 - ABR selected Recruit/JOAT/Role Cop. Shockwave was the Traitor.
Open 520 - notscience was the Traitor in a team that chose daytalk and Role Cop.

Both of these games were scum wins, so would any of these players change a winning formula? I think the mechanic of upgrading to more roles is probably more alluring to newer players - whenever you see new or less-thinking players design a setup, it's always a clusterfuck polluted with powerroles. I think the people who fit the profile of zero upgrades the best are Greymarble and iamausername. I think ABR could go down the route of switching his selections completely, rather than picking the same things - actually, I think if anything, he'd be more likely to change his selections than pick the same ones. Profont and Shockwave seem the least likely to go for zero roles, imo. Notscience seems to be a pretty lol-impulsive sort of player who would be down for PR's, and I don't think Profont or Shockwave would override just for the sake of overriding.

That being said, well, we can discuss mechanics later, but I'd tend to think Hoopla would pick either two power roles or zero, due to the nature of the power roles.

this is probably true about me.

PREVIEW EDIT: just seen 707, postin' anyway

[GreyICE]

@Hoopla: We fit the profile of nothing. We are a replacement, Sakura Hana is who would have decided that. Just sayin.

[Greymarble]

@Hoopla: We fit the profile of nothing. We are a replacement, Sakura Hana is who would have decided that. Just sayin.

God DAMN it. This is not like riding a bicycle.

[Shockwave Rider]

/In before Aisa claims a pr and makes all of this discussion moot.

[Greymarble]

Although yes, I feel no shame in saying that I personally would have picked zero power roles.

PEdit: Aisa has flaked, it's rather obvious.

[Greymarble]

Also if she's a PR, she's one who can't be tracked, and there's no town PR that doesn't target except Innocent Child.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: We fit the profile of nothing. We are a replacement, Sakura Hana is who would have decided that. Just sayin.

oh yeah, silly me.

don't know anything about sakura, but the fact she's a serial-replace-outer when someone tunnels on her probably doesn't indicate that she thinks deeply about the game.

lock in my vote for iamausername.

[Greymarble]

Hmmm, ABR has played this before. That means he'd be likely to discuss the "Goon/Recruited Goon/Traitor" mechanic shift the moderator initiated. He didn't comment on it at ALL though, which is odd if ABR-scum. Meh wanna talk with Llamarble.

I'm just thinking I'm overthinking this, IAAU lynch = win, but Hoopla is v. possible from a setup perspective.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Unvote, vote IAAU

[iamausername]

cool, go ahead, just make sure you're lynching Hoopla and ABR after me. everyone else is town.

[iamausername]

for the record, if it was me, i'd have recruited the traitor, but hey ho.

[Albert B. Rampage]

That's not very convincing, sorry.

[Profont]

Since that's probably not going to happen, I'll go through them individually tomorrow.
-font

I'm both lazy and a liar. Anyway, let's do this.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Iamausername
That's L-1. If you guys are ready, Shockwave can hammer.

Hoopla: Fyi, Proph and I had a theoretical discussion before the game started, and agreed that if we rolled scum, we would probably go for nothing. So, I'm a little skeptical of the validity of your evaluation.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Scummy as hell ^^^

Unvote

[Hoopla]

why is that scummy?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: Fyi, Proph and I had a theoretical discussion before the game started, and agreed that if we rolled scum, we would probably go for nothing. So, I'm a little skeptical of the validity of your evaluation.

i'm slightly suspicious when someone voluntarily brings up stuff like this about themself, but the rest of the post is fine. he's helping us lynch iam-scum, what more do you want?

[Shockwave Rider]

I like that I'm town because I'm not a good player.

Albert even if Profont's post is scummy, what does just unvoting bring to the table here?