NY 170: Georgetown II (Game Over)

[Sotty7]

Eeeeehhhhh

Maybe. He's not my top lynch candidate at this point, he needs to explain why he is voting PJ and maybe we can work from there.

[inHimshallibe]

emeraldemon is town imo. Feel pretty confident.

Gonna break out my crayons this afternoon.

[kabooooom]

yeah he seems town. but dont let him fool you! he is kinda guy who lets town vs. town situation and wins the game!

and what does this even mean??

"Gonna break out my crayons this afternoon."

[inHimshallibe]

kab I hope you don't take this too personally when I say I just flat-out don't understand you. Haven't for the whole game, in fact.

[inHimshallibe]

crayons = colored vote tallies, a lost art around here imo. ;)

[kabooooom]

kab I hope you don't take this too personally when I say I just flat-out don't understand you. Haven't for the whole game, in fact.

[Aegor]

Thesp,

why is your attention so narrowly focused on kab? You admit the possibility that both D3 wagonsw ere on scum and have told me that you found kab's vote timing weird. You have not actually developed those lines of thought at all. Please do so now: why is kab scummy? What made kab's votes suspect? How do you reconcile his voting pattern with scum alignment? Why do I feel like you are not really trying?

Want to lynch between PJ and HS today. PJ's posts have been IIoA, and bad A at that. The No Lynch thing seems more like a stalling tactic than anything else. Chevre's slot is hella scum. Already posted my thoughts on HS.

[Thesp]

WARNING: INCOMING WALL. This should be my only wall of the day, or hopefully of the game.

@Thesp

: My question was rather why you wanted to lynch RBD over Bulba toward the end of the day. Why not just let the Bulba wagon gain speed?

Because I thought RainbowDash was more likely to be scum. I thought there might be a chance to lynch her instead of Bulbazak, so I pushed for it.

---

2.)

Thesp, you claim you are tempted to vote for me because emogirl123 has more less had better reads than you over the course of the game. How closely have you paid attention to her reads? Have her reads tempted you into voting any players besides me?

Why are you not willing to rely on your own judgment? This feels highly unnatural for you. emogirl123 was posting by the end of yesterday without confirmation of bulbazak being scum. You now have confirmation that bulbazak was scum and confirmation that emogirl123 was Town, as well as confirmation of your own alignment. By necessity, you should have a clearer view of the game by this point.

I thought I had explained a bit earlier why I'm more hesitant of my own judgment - I was uncertain of reads before, and now made even more uncertain with the last flip. I think I may just not like all-vanilla games. They're less interesting.

*time passes*

That said, I went to re-read some of emogirl123's more recent posts to see if there was anything else that stood out besides Chevre, and I came across this:

@Kabooooom, I hate playing the WIFOM game, but I really really don't think team scum is Chevre and Bulbazak together. For this to be true, team scum would have needed to all vote me Day 1, and tunnel my slot for the remainder of the game. That would be such terrible play.

...and I figured I should just suck it up and get the re-read done. I have done so. I feel a bit more comfortable with some of my guesses, which will come at the end of this post.

4.)

2.) Thor665, why do you think RainbowDash should not be my top suspect? What about Bulbazak flipping scum makes you think RainbowDash is more likely to be Town

Ooh! Ooh! I know this one! "Because she was counterwagon to scum". Right? =P

I edited my response to this before submitting. Suffice it say you should consider yourself officially guilt-tripped. I will just be blunt.

The term "counterwagon" does not mean much when there are only two scum remaining in the game. Bulbazak was not pushing for a RainbowDash lynch. Therefore the only way RainbowDash could be a scum-coordinated counterwagon would be if the remaining partner was pushing for the RainbowDash lynch. However, it seems just as (if not more) likely that the partner was bussing Bulbazak, or else voting somebody else completely. Your comment here is particularly surprising given that you have already touched on this exact issue earlier:

In a game like this where we've almost certainly got fewer scum around (the total number bandied about has been 3, which seems reasonable to me), and there's not a lot of scum that can push a "counter-wagon" to try to divert a scum lynch.

Your opinion seems to be increasingly changed by popular opinion over your own thought processes. Please go back to being Thesp.

I suppose my sarcasm on this point was unclear. I totally agree with you that the concept of "counterwagon" in this kind of game is a bit silly. I thought I was being clearly silly, since I had been going back and forth with Thor on this quite a bit yesterday, since he seemed against a RainbowDash wagon solely on the reason that she was a "counterwagon to scum". I tried multiple times to elicit more clear responses from him on this point (the post you quoted being one such moment), which fell on deaf ears.

---

I want kab to die soooooooooooooooooooo bad.

I want to do this sooooooo much. I really do. But I think RainbowDash is the play today.

---

I don't really disagree with any of your scumspects (though I'm wavering on InHim I'll admit, his shift to Albert felt really organic.

Coming pack to this post, this is something I looked for in the re-read and didn't see at all. Can you show me what you thought was organic about the shift? It looked very abrupt to me.

---

---

Going into my re-read, Chevre/PJ and Brian Skies/Thor665 were the people I was most interested in (along with kabooooom). Coming out, I am significantly less interested in their deaths. Here's why:

Chevre/PJ

:
emogirl123 made a comment that stuck out to me, which was quoted above, that she didn't think Bulbazak and PJ would be scum together. As much as I think Chevre has done crazy scummy things, with both ABR and Bulbazak's voting patterns, there would be some unusual groupings in votes. In Post 1225-1256, Chevre and ABR are the only two people voting for Tony PF. As ABR's wagon is starting to significantly come apart, Bulbazak becomes the third voter against Tony PF, without anything other than the vote, and at a time where there were plenty of lynch possibilities. It would be very, very weird to me for only three scum to be the only voters on a single player in a relatively short order, particularly when there were other reasonable targets out there.

Brian Skies/Thor

:
Similarly to Chevre, there was a time early on when emogirl123 was gaining traction, that the voters were in this order: [Maestro, NS, Bulbazak*, Garmr, Brian Skies, ABR*...]. If Brian Skies is scum, we have a wagon featuring three scum on the wagon again in very short order (with only Garmr in between). That's some pretty hardcore clumping if that's the case. There's also a point where Brian Skies and Slandaar are big wagons with ~2 days to go. ABR moves from Slandaar to emeraldemon, which implies to me he doesn't care which of Slandaar and Brian Skies gets lynched.

On the flipside of things, here are my top 3 for scum in order:

RainbowDash

:
Many reasons previously stated/intoned, but neither Maestro or Zekrom25 inspired any confidence, and RainbowDash really pushed against an ABR lynch.

kabooooom

:
There is nothing he has done which has been useful, and his votes have generally been bad. He lurks until his name is called, and he's all over the map. He plays when and how it's convenient, and nothing more. He needs to die.

HighShroomish

:
The only thing that gives me pause is that he opened D3 deflecting the ABR wagon...towards Bulbazak. And Bulbazak seems to question the "towntell" of HighShroomish's number of scum estimation. Otherwise, OGML did nothing redeeming, his push against Aegor is terrible, and he never returns to his first-stated Bulbazak suspicions (even questioning another player that thought Bulbazak was scum).

VOTE: RainbowDash

[Thesp]

Thesp,

why is your attention so narrowly focused on kab? You admit the possibility that both D3 wagonsw ere on scum and have told me that you found kab's vote timing weird. You have not actually developed those lines of thought at all. Please do so now: why is kab scummy? What made kab's votes suspect? How do you reconcile his voting pattern with scum alignment? Why do I feel like you are not really trying?

Want to lynch between PJ and HS today. PJ's posts have been IIoA, and bad A at that. The No Lynch thing seems more like a stalling tactic than anything else. Chevre's slot is hella scum. Already posted my thoughts on HS.

What do you mean on developing those lines of thought? kabooooom votes for ABR at the sort of time you would bus your partner when they were probably going to be lynched anyway, and doesn't push hard for ABR at all. ABR votes for kabooooom, but doesn't push the wagon at all either. They look like they want their votes to show up on each other, but I see no real effort from either to get the other lynched. Notably, Bulbazak doesn't vote on either, but stays on the sideline between the two of them.

I also don't think PJ's no lynch thoughts are stalling, I think he opened with that, and would begin with that regardless of his alignment.

[Aegor]

What do you mean on developing those lines of thought? kabooooom votes for ABR at the sort of time you would bus your partner when they were probably going to be lynched anyway, and doesn't push hard for ABR at all. ABR votes for kabooooom, but doesn't push the wagon at all either. They look like they want their votes to show up on each other, but I see no real effort from either to get the other lynched. Notably, Bulbazak doesn't vote on either, but stays on the sideline between the two of them.

Given kab's play, I find it unlikely that scumkab would not be on either of the town wagons but on both of the scum wagons. Either he is opportunistic and mercurial or he is not; you cannot have it both ways.


Can we destroy PJ today and lynch RBD tomorrow?

[kabooooom]

Thesp,

why is your attention so narrowly focused on kab? You admit the possibility that both D3 wagonsw ere on scum and have told me that you found kab's vote timing weird. You have not actually developed those lines of thought at all. Please do so now: why is kab scummy? What made kab's votes suspect? How do you reconcile his voting pattern with scum alignment? Why do I feel like you are not really trying?

Want to lynch between PJ and HS today. PJ's posts have been IIoA, and bad A at that. The No Lynch thing seems more like a stalling tactic than anything else. Chevre's slot is hella scum. Already posted my thoughts on HS.

What do you mean on developing those lines of thought? kabooooom votes for ABR at the sort of time you would bus your partner when they were probably going to be lynched anyway, and doesn't push hard for ABR at all. ABR votes for kabooooom, but doesn't push the wagon at all either. They look like they want their votes to show up on each other, but I see no real effort from either to get the other lynched. Notably, Bulbazak doesn't vote on either, but stays on the sideline between the two of them.

I also don't think PJ's no lynch thoughts are stalling, I think he opened with that, and would begin with that regardless of his alignment.

pure fluff!! i have lot to say but that would just be waste of my time!

[Thesp]

What do you mean on developing those lines of thought? kabooooom votes for ABR at the sort of time you would bus your partner when they were probably going to be lynched anyway, and doesn't push hard for ABR at all. ABR votes for kabooooom, but doesn't push the wagon at all either. They look like they want their votes to show up on each other, but I see no real effort from either to get the other lynched. Notably, Bulbazak doesn't vote on either, but stays on the sideline between the two of them.

Given kab's play, I find it unlikely that scumkab would not be on either of the town wagons but on both of the scum wagons. Either he is opportunistic and mercurial or he is not; you cannot have it both ways.


Can we destroy PJ today and lynch RBD tomorrow?

Why can't he be both? He was hardly around at the end of D1 (and left his vote on a townie), only pops up with the self vote near the end of D2 when the lynch was determined, and has actually been around more near the end of the last few days. I can imagine a host of real-life circumstances where that would play out just so, and when he actually is around, he's opportunistic

at best

.

I also thought I explained why I don't want to destroy PJ. =P What do you think of my justifications?

[Thesp]

Thesp,

why is your attention so narrowly focused on kab? You admit the possibility that both D3 wagonsw ere on scum and have told me that you found kab's vote timing weird. You have not actually developed those lines of thought at all. Please do so now: why is kab scummy? What made kab's votes suspect? How do you reconcile his voting pattern with scum alignment? Why do I feel like you are not really trying?

Want to lynch between PJ and HS today. PJ's posts have been IIoA, and bad A at that. The No Lynch thing seems more like a stalling tactic than anything else. Chevre's slot is hella scum. Already posted my thoughts on HS.

What do you mean on developing those lines of thought? kabooooom votes for ABR at the sort of time you would bus your partner when they were probably going to be lynched anyway, and doesn't push hard for ABR at all. ABR votes for kabooooom, but doesn't push the wagon at all either. They look like they want their votes to show up on each other, but I see no real effort from either to get the other lynched. Notably, Bulbazak doesn't vote on either, but stays on the sideline between the two of them.

I also don't think PJ's no lynch thoughts are stalling, I think he opened with that, and would begin with that regardless of his alignment.

pure fluff!! i have lot to say but that would just be waste of my time!

I'd love to know who your top 3 scum picks are, and

why

they are your top 3 scum picks.

[Aegor]

Because they are mutually exclusive.

You charge kab with playing for convenience. How is that reconcilable with being on NEITHER of the two town lynches and BOTH of the scum lynches? I mean, it is possible, but seems unlikely.


Re: PJ. I dismiss your primary premise, i.e. that scum would not coordinate in the manner you suggest. Your entire argument rests on that, so I obviously find it unsound.

[Thor665]

I suppose my sarcasm on this point was unclear. I totally agree with you that the concept of "counterwagon" in this kind of game is a bit silly. I thought I was being clearly silly, since I had been going back and forth with Thor on this quite a bit yesterday, since he seemed against a RainbowDash wagon solely on the reason that she was a "counterwagon to scum". I tried multiple times to elicit more clear responses from him on this point (the post you quoted being one such moment), which fell on deaf ears.

It was a counter when there was 2+ scum - making it a different counter than the logic that PJ is using to suggest a counter is unlikely, and making your agreement on it while bouncing it back in time to the other to be for me.

Coming pack to this post, this is something I looked for in the re-read and didn't see at all. Can you show me what you thought was organic about the shift? It looked very abrupt to me.

Since when does "abrupt" preclude "organic"?
He asked me about a case, a side case that I was pushing without a lot of attention, for the record. He initiated on it with an expression of not buying the case. He looked at the evidence. He suddenly vote shifted, functionally getting the wagon rolling at that stage.

You're calling this...a bus?

[Thesp]

Coming pack to this post, this is something I looked for in the re-read and didn't see at all. Can you show me what you thought was organic about the shift? It looked very abrupt to me.

Since when does "abrupt" preclude "organic"?
He asked me about a case, a side case that I was pushing without a lot of attention, for the record. He initiated on it with an expression of not buying the case. He looked at the evidence. He suddenly vote shifted, functionally getting the wagon rolling at that stage.

You're calling this...a bus?

No. I wanted to see why you thought it was organic.

[Thor665]

And now that you have?

[emeraldemon]

@sotty
When Chevre came under pressure early day 1 for his vote, he chickened out and unvoted in a way I thought was suspicious (387, see my post 2145).
Chevre's early game had multiple big walls that felt like IioA to me (e.g. 1118).
Bulba actively fought against Chevre being lynched (1995, 2128, 2157), even though there wasn't much of a wagon on him at that time.
emogirl's NK may not mean anything, but it may mean PJ/Chevre was nervous.
PJ's first post on joining the game and rereading was to FoS people on Chevre's [his] first wagon (2204). That one may mean nothing, but it bugs me.
I disagree with PJ's no-kill logic and think it might be scum looking to stall for night.

I intentionally ended my post with a question because I wanted people to answer it. So sotty, what is your read on PJ/Chevre?

[Thesp]

And now that you have?

I thought your answer was useful in ascertaining you better. (Sorry if I don't have anything big and grand for you on this point.)

[kabooooom]

Thesp,

why is your attention so narrowly focused on kab? You admit the possibility that both D3 wagonsw ere on scum and have told me that you found kab's vote timing weird. You have not actually developed those lines of thought at all. Please do so now: why is kab scummy? What made kab's votes suspect? How do you reconcile his voting pattern with scum alignment? Why do I feel like you are not really trying?

Want to lynch between PJ and HS today. PJ's posts have been IIoA, and bad A at that. The No Lynch thing seems more like a stalling tactic than anything else. Chevre's slot is hella scum. Already posted my thoughts on HS.

What do you mean on developing those lines of thought? kabooooom votes for ABR at the sort of time you would bus your partner when they were probably going to be lynched anyway, and doesn't push hard for ABR at all. ABR votes for kabooooom, but doesn't push the wagon at all either. They look like they want their votes to show up on each other, but I see no real effort from either to get the other lynched. Notably, Bulbazak doesn't vote on either, but stays on the sideline between the two of them.

I also don't think PJ's no lynch thoughts are stalling, I think he opened with that, and would begin with that regardless of his alignment.

pure fluff!! i have lot to say but that would just be waste of my time!

I'd love to know who your top 3 scum picks are, and

why

they are your top 3 scum picks.

i already did in my post #2378 if you paid any attention at all you would have known!

[Thesp]

Thesp,

why is your attention so narrowly focused on kab? You admit the possibility that both D3 wagonsw ere on scum and have told me that you found kab's vote timing weird. You have not actually developed those lines of thought at all. Please do so now: why is kab scummy? What made kab's votes suspect? How do you reconcile his voting pattern with scum alignment? Why do I feel like you are not really trying?

Want to lynch between PJ and HS today. PJ's posts have been IIoA, and bad A at that. The No Lynch thing seems more like a stalling tactic than anything else. Chevre's slot is hella scum. Already posted my thoughts on HS.

What do you mean on developing those lines of thought? kabooooom votes for ABR at the sort of time you would bus your partner when they were probably going to be lynched anyway, and doesn't push hard for ABR at all. ABR votes for kabooooom, but doesn't push the wagon at all either. They look like they want their votes to show up on each other, but I see no real effort from either to get the other lynched. Notably, Bulbazak doesn't vote on either, but stays on the sideline between the two of them.

I also don't think PJ's no lynch thoughts are stalling, I think he opened with that, and would begin with that regardless of his alignment.

pure fluff!! i have lot to say but that would just be waste of my time!

I'd love to know who your top 3 scum picks are, and

why

they are your top 3 scum picks.

i already did in my post #2378 if you paid any attention at all you would have known!

I overlooked that it was indeed a top 3 list - it was hard to read. In any case, thanks for pointing me to it.

Happy with my vote.

[kabooooom]

knew*

[kabooooom]

Thesp,

why is your attention so narrowly focused on kab? You admit the possibility that both D3 wagonsw ere on scum and have told me that you found kab's vote timing weird. You have not actually developed those lines of thought at all. Please do so now: why is kab scummy? What made kab's votes suspect? How do you reconcile his voting pattern with scum alignment? Why do I feel like you are not really trying?

Want to lynch between PJ and HS today. PJ's posts have been IIoA, and bad A at that. The No Lynch thing seems more like a stalling tactic than anything else. Chevre's slot is hella scum. Already posted my thoughts on HS.

What do you mean on developing those lines of thought? kabooooom votes for ABR at the sort of time you would bus your partner when they were probably going to be lynched anyway, and doesn't push hard for ABR at all. ABR votes for kabooooom, but doesn't push the wagon at all either. They look like they want their votes to show up on each other, but I see no real effort from either to get the other lynched. Notably, Bulbazak doesn't vote on either, but stays on the sideline between the two of them.

I also don't think PJ's no lynch thoughts are stalling, I think he opened with that, and would begin with that regardless of his alignment.

pure fluff!! i have lot to say but that would just be waste of my time!

I'd love to know who your top 3 scum picks are, and

why

they are your top 3 scum picks.

i already did in my post #2378 if you paid any attention at all you would have known!

I overlooked that it was indeed a top 3 list - it was hard to read. In any case, thanks for pointing me to it.

Happy with my vote.

dont you feel like convincing others to join your wagon cos it doesn't seems that she will be lynched! however if you dont care, its a different thing then.

[Thor665]

And now that you have?

I thought your answer was useful in ascertaining you better. (Sorry if I don't have anything big and grand for you on this point.)

So did it look organic or not to you, and also do you think it makes him look town or not?

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Thesp

I am taking this from more of a standpoint of expected play. I know I stayed off both ABR and Bulb wagon, and really don't expect in a mountainous any scum to have pulled the exact same move. There is no other way to built any town credit but bussing. PJ had the same situation, where his slot avoided both wagons. It just doesn't seem like the scum play because its going to get you lynched. I know its not the strongest town case, but its enough to hold some water here I think. Easily enough to make me not want to vote him though.

Anyways

ED is town
HS is town
Aegor I actually am pretty sure is town here

Then I get inhim and kab in that "yeah I guess town" group and that about ends it.

Really I just have this feeling that the last scum is in the group who is saying "its the ones that didn't bus" and if that's the case get some serious conversation on which of them (by them it means which of Sotty/Thor) played the bus card.

Just have an amazingly hard time buying that scum didn't bus. At all. Because when all the top picks were the ones that didn't bus, it feels off. In PR heavy games scum tends to bus, in these type of games, especially with ABR being a forgone deadline lynch leading up to it and Bulb following me immediately best case for scum, that scum would just avoid trying to bus.

So yeah, me throwing a wrench in things. May not be necessary but there need to at least be some basic talking about what happens in the case that PJ and Thesp are both town. Otherwise you are going to be stuck in a very sudden endgame that probably is something like Thor-Sotty-kab