Mini 1564 - Nyctapolis (~owari~)


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Post Post #500 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:38 am

Post by pieguyn »

votecount 3.2
undo (3) - Faster Than Light, Formerfish, iamsteve
Formerfish (1) - Empking

Not voting (5) - undo, InsidiousLemons, Raging Bull, thenewearth, notSakura

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is 4/28, 21:00 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2014-04-28 21:00:00).
Last edited by pieguyn on Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #501 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:44 am

Post by pieguyn »

Empking has been prodded.

Empking has received 3 prods and as such I am searching for a replacement. He may remain in the game if he returns before a replacement is found.
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Post Post #502 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:46 am

Post by InsidiousLemons »

@Mod: NS is no longer on the undo wagon
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Post Post #503 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:48 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 502, InsidiousLemons wrote:
@Mod: NS is no longer on the undo wagon
fix'd
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Post Post #504 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:58 am

Post by Empking »

Undo's very very latest posts aren't great, but his post on Formers was good. Plus, I don't still his change in mind on Former as likely to be coming from under pressure scum.
Plus, if you guys want to make a point, skip the walls, because everyone else in the game does as well. - Magister Ludi
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Post Post #505 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:08 am

Post by undo »

I've done that iamsteve reread. I must admit I don't find anything
too
incriminating.

Some of his early posts look awful ( - awkward questioning of random voting. - seems too worried about looking offensive: "Do I come across offensive or something? Just trying to solve the game here." : OMGUSes me), but from then on he doesn't really raise any particular suspicion.

But then he puts me at L-2 on grounds that my post on Remilia's suspicions (which would make him, iamsteve, a suspect) is based on WIFOM, even though on Day 2 iamsteve voted me after using the exact same type of reasoning -- that is, a reasoning based on probabilities (post ).

iamsteve is definitely not on my town list but evidence is not strong enough for me to vote him at this point, because I'm confident I can find a better candidate.
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Post Post #506 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:11 am

Post by undo »

In post 499, notSakura wrote:So since im around atm, before i jump back to my main i'll ask you, why do you think it's a good idea to assume that remilia was killed because of their suspicions? Considering if from your PoV their suspicion on you is wrong, why do you assume that all the others are right?
I've tried to explain this on post 475 but apparently I was not clear.

My reasoning was the following:

(me thinking)
"It's Day 3 and we're 4 townies down. We really need to find scum today or else the game may be lost. What leads do we have that we can pursue? Maybe we can find something by trying to understand the reasons behind Remilia's death. The most obvious reason is that Remilia was a townread for many people and so it would be unlikely Remilia would be ever lynched.
But what if there were other reasons for this kill? Maybe Remilia was on to something with their earlier suspicions? Apart from me, Remilia had voted Raging Bull. No, it would probably be too risky for scum to kill Remilia on this, so I don't think Raging Bull did it.
What other suspects did Remilia have? Let's see: Tanz and iamsteve. Remilia dropped their scumread on Tanz later on, so why not look into iamsteve's posts?"

This was the line of thought that made me analyze Remilia's suspect list and iamsteve in particular. But now, as I said, I have looked into iamsteve's posts and in fact I can't find strong arguments to build a solid case against him. I really don't like him putting someone (in this case, me) at L-2 at this point of the game, with such weak reasoning. I would vote him for this if we were at ease, but we're not, so I myself am going to keep trying to find other clues.
In post 504, Empking wrote:Undo's very very latest posts aren't great, but his post on Formers was good. Plus, I don't still his change in mind on Former as likely to be coming from under pressure scum.
What post? What exactly are you talking about?
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Post Post #507 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:37 am

Post by Formerfish »

I'll be on tonight. It was difficult to find time over Easter.
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Post Post #508 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 2:42 pm

Post by Sakura Hana »

In post 506, undo wrote:What leads do we have that we can pursue?
Why else do you think i'm suggesting a massclaim.
I bloom in spring?
Please be nice to me.
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Post Post #509 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 2:42 pm

Post by notSakura »

In post 508, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 506, undo wrote:What leads do we have that we can pursue?
Why else do you think i'm suggesting a massclaim.
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Post Post #510 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:04 pm

Post by Formerfish »

I am here. Looking back over the last few pages. I will say this first, look at my scum games and tell me if you see anything as brazen as the hammer from yesterday.
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Post Post #511 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:10 pm

Post by Formerfish »

Do we have any idea of what the set up could be?
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Post Post #512 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:51 pm

Post by Formerfish »

In post 462, Empking wrote:
Vote: Former
- I think that hammer looked awfully scummy.
I don't remember you ever being this forward in the Song Upick, and with such shitty reasoning.
In post 465, undo wrote:Damn, we're doing bad.
In post 459, Faster Than Light wrote:i am remilia's mason partner and his dying wisjh is to lynch undo

VOTE: undo
I understand your pain, and fulfilling dying wishes is very noble and all, but we really can't afford another mislynch. So please let's try and go slower this time, shall we.

@FomerFish: why didn't you let Number_0ne defend himself?

@Empking: any reads on other players?
Defend himself against what? From what I saw from his ISO there really wasn't much activity, and a lack of content in the posts that he did make. And I know hindsight is 20/20, but what would we have done with his claim of VT, I'd still lynch him.
In post 467, InsidiousLemons wrote:
In post 459, Faster Than Light wrote:i am remilia's mason partner and his dying wisjh is to lynch undo

VOTE: undo
Maybe so, but do you really expect us to lynch somebody PURELY because a dead conf-town wanted him dead? If you were a cop maybe, but this is essentially roulette.
Solely because dead conftown wanted them dead, nah, there some other shit rolled in there. Why does the opinion of Innocent Children hold so much sway? Because we know that they are coming from a town point of view. Same with dead conftown. And the wifomy idea that scum never kill someone pinning them down as top suspects doesnt hold water. As scum I have killed the biggest threat just as much as gone for misdirection. As scum I also use this argument to throw a wrench into towns scumhunting because all it does is brew paranoia like bad homemade hooch.
In post 469, iamsteve wrote:The hammer of Formerfish was more antitown than everything I have seen in this game so far. And I'm not only talking about the hammer without claim. He killed all ongoing conversations on this day. There were open questions and ongoing cases towards both Number 0ne and undo.
I could kind of understand that one of the players who have to suffer through this game from the beginning would maybe do this just to end this misery quickly, but a fresh replacement? You don't replace into a game if you don't want to play (I hope) and the players I've seen replacing in so far have tried to bring new life into a game and not shut it down.

So, what were you thinking, Formerfish?
In post 467, InsidiousLemons wrote:
In post 459, Faster Than Light wrote:i am remilia's mason partner and his dying wisjh is to lynch undo

VOTE: undo
Maybe so, but do you really expect us to lynch somebody PURELY because a dead conf-town wanted him dead? If you were a cop maybe, but this is essentially roulette.
Do you have a better idea then?
Are you really coming at my neck for hammering someone that you also claim to have ongoing cases against? I made a bad call from the limited information I had from his ISO. And then you go on to say that if someone else had hammered it would have been ok, but since I am new to the game I shouldn't have done that. Well, shit happens, and I hammered. Are you calling me scum for it or just muddying the waters here?

FTL, I should have listened to you more in Touhou Varsoon, I'm sorry I let that go down the way it did. Your play here is very similar and that is why I am willing to trust you here. Just saying.
In post 474, undo wrote:I'd like to remind you that there can be 3 scum alive, so with 9 players it may only take two badly-placed town votes to have a potential mislynch. Just saying.
Yet you still lived, even when you got put to l-1. And is there a chance that this is multiball? I never saw the game announcement so I don't know if anything about the set up was revealed. And your breakdown of the night kill is wifom in its purest form.
In post 476, undo wrote:
In post 468, Formerfish wrote:Undo, I don't understand your question. Could you elaborate on it for me?
Why didn't you let Number_0ne claim, at least?
I'm trying something new. Usually I analyze everything to death and ignore my gut. Gut tends to be right but gets drowned out because I am unable to explain myself well enough. See my push on pecan for days straight in Song Upick. Guy was scummy as fuck but I couldn't get him lynched. Town got endgamed by him eventually. I had a gut read on my brother in some random mini because of his lack of a reach out in his first few posts. I allowed myself to be swayed by him and was endgamed. So, yeah trying something a little different here. That's right! Ice... man. I am dangerous.
In post 481, Faster Than Light wrote:formerfish is scummy as f. but his predecessor, tanz, was very townie so i am wiling to take a leap of faith and call him town
Wrong, and then right, I appreciate the leap of faith. You won't be disappointed.
In post 485, iamsteve wrote:undo: It is still a wall of WIFOM. You are trying to suggest that on RS's suspicion ranking it'd probably be exactly the third player that had most reason to kill RS, because the others were not suspicious enough or too suspicious. Having checked your previous games and in particular your stances on WIFOM I heavily doubt you'd pull this kind of argument as a townie. I agree that Tanz wasn't scummy, unfortunately Formerfish kind of screwed this slot when he replaced him.

FTL: I am fine with RS's wish.
VOTE: undo
What changed between the last post you made lambasting me for what you essentially do here? I didn't answer anything, Undo barely spoke, yet you now feel confident enough to vote him. Is this just a poorly set up bussing job?
In post 486, undo wrote:p-edit: @iamsteve: One thing is WIFOM, another thing is dealing with probabilities. You can't pass without the latter in this game. What exactly do you find WIFOM about my post?
:igmeou:

The Undo/Isteve shit comes off as scum/scum to me. Anyone else getting that vibe?

@Raging Bull
- Why do you think that Empking can't be scum because of where he was on the two
mislynches
? It kinda looked like he parked his votes and just sat on them. Also, go check out a town game of his, it looks nothing like his play here. And yeah, I know that I have to get active here, so here is my attempt at that.

@Undo
- How many times are you going to mention how careful we have to be right now? I think your AtF has run its course and now the wolf can just come fucking eat you.
In post 504, Empking wrote:Undo's very very latest posts aren't great, but his post on Formers was good. Plus, I don't still his change in mind on Former as likely to be coming from under pressure scum.
Can you translate this into English, and maybe show exactly which posts you are talking about?

I was kind of hoping that someone would be on, I am a lot better at this shit when I can actually bounce ideas off someone directly.
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Post Post #513 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 5:59 pm

Post by Faster Than Light »

Wow finally a good post

Btw this is metal sonic

Varsoon ends his posts with -V
This is a Hydra of Metal Sonic and Varsoon. Be prepared.
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Post Post #514 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 6:02 pm

Post by Faster Than Light »

Like the above post is actually pretty impressive

Good good

Follow my list on lynchpool and we should be fine, considering we have a least more than 1 mislynch left in worst case scenario
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Post Post #515 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:26 pm

Post by Empking »

In my last post 'still' should be 'think'.

Undo: I think I misremembered the post where you asked Former a question in my mind. It was a very good question, but I rather exaggerated how you much stress you put on it.
Plus, if you guys want to make a point, skip the walls, because everyone else in the game does as well. - Magister Ludi
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Post Post #516 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:12 pm

Post by Raging Bull »

@former Empking may have been on both lynches, but so have I. If i chose between his or my vote as scummier, it would be me. I dont think scum would be leading a wagon early, probably joining one instead. I didnt say get active here. You just joined and hammered. Sharing your thoughts with us before voting would be great.

@IL i know you are reading them as town now. Just the timing of it seems weird. I felt like something about protecting each other at this stage to try to get a mafia perfect win.

Im gonna go with gut and vote undo. Yet im also confused since his post looks good. Kinda reading me as town could be part of his plan since i had suspicion on him d1
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Post Post #517 (ISO) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:15 pm

Post by Raging Bull »

God idk anymore. Any one object to undo lynch? Dont wanna do l1 yet.
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Post Post #518 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2014 12:46 am

Post by undo »

In post 512, Formerfish wrote:
In post 474, undo wrote:I'd like to remind you that there can be 3 scum alive, so with 9 players it may only take two badly-placed town votes to have a potential mislynch. Just saying.
Yet you still lived, even when you got put to l-1.
I got put to L-1 for one hour only. That doesn't mean anything.
In post 476, undo wrote: I'm trying something new. Usually I analyze everything to death and ignore my gut. Gut tends to be right but gets drowned out because I am unable to explain myself well enough. See my push on pecan for days straight in Song Upick. Guy was scummy as fuck but I couldn't get him lynched. Town got endgamed by him eventually. I had a gut read on my brother in some random mini because of his lack of a reach out in his first few posts. I allowed myself to be swayed by him and was endgamed. So, yeah trying something a little different here. That's right! Ice... man. I am dangerous.
OK, I understand the need to try something different. It didn't work so well though. Why don't you try to be more analytical now that the odds are turning against town? Or why not trying to achieve some kind of balance between over-analyzing and lol-hammering?

Look, I'm no saint, my votes on the last lynches were a mix of gut and negligence. But now I'm trying to leave gut aside and to be at least a litte more thoughtful before voting.
In post 516, Raging Bull wrote: Im gonna go with gut and vote undo.
Did your gut tell you to vote Number_0ne too? Look, we still have plenty of time for discussion. If you're going to lynch a townie, at least wait until deadline.

I'm gonna say Raging Bull and NotSakura are probably town, because their caution looks genuine.
In post 514, Faster Than Light wrote: Follow my list on lynchpool and we should be fine, considering we have a least more than 1 mislynch left in worst case scenario
Your lynchpool contains 5 players, including me (and two players I'm townreading, though I'm guessing that doesn't interest you).
There may be 2 or 3 scum in this game.
We probably have 2 mislynches left.
You see?

Look, I have no doubt bork and GiF are excellent players. But two of their strongest suspicions were CheeryDog and Shattered Viewpoint. They can be wrong too.

So can you please make good use of your conftown status, and help us find scum by building cases against people based on actual, expressed facts (and not based on your gut, or on Remilia's posts)?
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Post Post #519 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:25 am

Post by Raging Bull »

In post 517, Raging Bull wrote:God idk anymore. Any one object to undo lynch? Dont wanna do l1 yet.
?

I did say i was going to wait. Not quoting long posts since im on my phone.

Yeah, my gut said number one and i was wrong. I didnt even like my vote on him, didnt expect early hammer.
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Post Post #520 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:00 am

Post by Faster Than Light »

In post 518, undo wrote:
In post 514, Faster Than Light wrote: Follow my list on lynchpool and we should be fine, considering we have a least more than 1 mislynch left in worst case scenario
Your lynchpool contains 5 players, including me (and two players I'm townreading, though I'm guessing that doesn't interest you).
There may be 2 or 3 scum in this game.
We probably have 2 mislynches left.
You see?
i dont see

5 players in my lynchpool

2 or 3 scum

2 mislynches

i think my lynch pool is a pretty safe bet, considering that those outside the lynchpool are my townreads = in my honest opinion 0% chance of scum
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Post Post #521 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:38 am

Post by iamsteve »

In post 512, Formerfish wrote:Are you really coming at my neck for hammering someone that you also claim to have ongoing cases against?
Yes. Because those cases were what they were: ongoing. They weren't closed.
In post 512, Formerfish wrote:I made a bad call from the limited information I had from his ISO. And then you go on to say that if someone else had hammered it would have been ok, but since I am new to the game I shouldn't have done that. Well, shit happens, and I hammered.
It's not about "okay" or "not okay". It's about scum or town. And therefor it's about believability.

In post 512, Formerfish wrote:Are you calling me scum for it or just muddying the waters here?
If it's up to me, we can lynch you, your hammer was scummy enough for that.
In post 512, Formerfish wrote:What changed between the last post you made lambasting me for what you essentially do here? I didn't answer anything, Undo barely spoke, yet you now feel confident enough to vote him.
What changed? Apart from 3 posts of undo himself (well 4, but one was a double post) which consisted of AtE and WIFOM, FTL called you town. Since he is confirmed town I take his opinion into consideration.

FTL: I think RB is town.
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Post Post #522 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:08 am

Post by Empking »

The fact that only one player is voting for someone other than Undo seems like it is a good indicator of Undo being town.
Plus, if you guys want to make a point, skip the walls, because everyone else in the game does as well. - Magister Ludi
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Post Post #523 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:30 am

Post by Formerfish »

or scum is having a hard time getting any believable traction for a mislynch. You could use the lack of activity to say that Undo could be scum as well. With the amount of time that has passed you don't think scum could throw something halfway believable behind a vote on à townie?
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Post Post #524 (ISO) » Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:13 pm

Post by pieguyn »

thenewearth has failed to pick up his prod and as such I am searching for a replacement. He may remain in the game if he returns before a replacement is found.

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