Mini 1564 - Nyctapolis (~owari~)

[undo]

And yeah I guess its a little wifomy, but no, it's pretty much the definition of usual scum play. Granted, we're working on odds here, but that's what we've got at the moment. You can't be so blind as to dismiss everything as WIFOM; you have to use some common sense too. How do you analyze a wagon in which you don't know the alignment of every player, for example? You're never sure of everything, sometimes you have to go with the most probable options. Some moves are just too risky for scum to make, even when they plan on playing the WIFOM card.

Oh aren't you funny. Say, you forgot to put quote tags there.

Seriously, what's your point? If you agree with me, why did you accuse my post of being WIFOM in the first place?

[undo]

EBWOP: If you agree with me that working with probabilities =/= WIFOM, why did you accuse my post of being WIFOM in the first place?

[Faster Than Light]

Even if you are town, you are a loose variable that will be set up for a mislynch by scum in the near possible future.

My plan is that with the possible 2 mislynches remaining, we will lynch undo-> empking -> iamsteve -> raging bull -> notsakura

In this order. This hinges on my ability to nail all the scum in the above list with a 2 mislynch buffer chance. Unless something unexpected e.g a verifiable PR claim, town should follow this plan, regardless of what others say, as they cannot trust anyone else but me( and dead townies), and every other person has a possibility of being scum, except for those not in the above list, less likely so.

[Faster Than Light]

Therefore if you are town, listen to me, and listen to dead town, and maybe listen to those not on the above list: former fish, lemons, blue yoshi

Anyone else cannot be trusted and they probably seek to manipulate you guys into veering off track.

This secures the game in town favor bar me being wrong (I have already outlined multiple precautions in order to minimize this) or external unexpected circumstances, e.g 4 scum or extra scum kill

[Faster Than Light]

And yes, undo, you are getting lynched because remilia said so.

This will be inevitable if town are indeed cooperative and follow my plan nicely.

The fact that you have not been hammered yet is good. We have more time for discussion. This is the way town should play.

Lets not play WIFOM here, because, if you are town, the scum can easily pull another quick hammer like yesterday and blame it all on me with no consequence, no?

[Faster Than Light]

Therefore if you are town, listen to me, and listen to dead town, and maybe listen to those not on the above list: former fish, lemons, blue yoshi

Anyone else cannot be trusted and they probably seek to manipulate you guys into veering off track.

This secures the game in town favor bar me being wrong (I have already outlined multiple precautions in order to minimize this) or external unexpected circumstances, e.g 4 scum or extra scum kill

This post is to town as a collective. Not to undo. The first and third posts referred to undo

[Faster Than Light]

Basically, town should just follow my plan. If you are scum, they can't follow my plan anyway so don't listen to them. Ignore anyone that tries to argue otherwise and we can have a very messy but dedicated town win.

[Faster Than Light]

And this will make the game very boring but oh well

[Blue Yoshi]

My plan is that with the possible 2 mislynches remaining, we will lynch undo-> empking -> iamsteve -> raging bull -> notsakura.

And this is what I mean by purposefully MLing.
Do you think there are only 2 mafia in this game? Because by this, it looks like you do.

[Blue Yoshi]

My only question is WHY you think that.

[Formerfish]

Blue, stop and think for a minute. No one is purposely looking for a mislynch. We are laying out the most likely scum, in order, and saying that even in the event of a misread we will be fine. The 3 scum are highly likely to be in those 5 players.

[pieguyn]

votecount 3.4

undo (3) - Faster Than Light, Formerfish, iamsteve
Formerfish (1) - Empking
Empking (1) - Blue Yoshi

Not voting (4) - undo, InsidiousLemons, Raging Bull, notSakura

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is 4/28, 21:00 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2014-04-28 21:00:00).

[pieguyn]

iamsteve has been prodded.

[Faster Than Light]

Exactly my point.

I like you a lot more now, formerfish

[Faster Than Light]

I understand that what I'm playing and laying out for you guys is a hit-or-die scenario. It's banking on these 5 players containing the last 3 scum.

I could be wrong, maybe, possibly, unlikely, but I never achieved anything by hedging my bets. It's better to go all out and be brazen, and make the most of my skills to help town win.

[notSakura]

Blue, stop and think for a minute. No one is purposely looking for a mislynch. We are laying out the most likely scum, in order, and saying that even in the event of a misread we will be fine. The 3 scum are highly likely to be in those 5 players.

My thoughts exactly

Vote: undo

[notSakura]

that should be L-1 i think.

[Formerfish]

Someone argue the merits of a mass claim tomorrow v today with me.

[undo]

Your conftown status doesn't mean your reads are right FTL. If Former or Blue Yoshi are scum, what good is your plan?

[undo]

Someone argue the merits of a mass claim tomorrow v today with me.

I'm starting to think a massclaim may be the only way to actually lynch scum today.

[InsidiousLemons]

Someone argue the merits of a mass claim tomorrow v today with me.

I'm starting to think a massclaim may be the only way to actually lynch scum today.

Then claim. This is L-1.

[notSakura]

He claimed VT.

[Formerfish]

The more I'm thinking the more I don't like a mass claim today. We've had 3 vts flip, and a mason. We probably have 3 scum out there, and currently a claimed vt and a claimed mason. Town gains very little from a claim, where scum would possibly acquire better targets for the nk. We have no set up info to go off of, and most games I've been scum in I've been provided fake claims. I would hope that town would have more power than masons and we could get another night of whatever they have to offer by keeping things a little more securely locked up, if you know what I mean.

[undo]

Scum aren't getting fakeclaims in a normal game.

[InsidiousLemons]

He claimed VT.

TY dunno how I missed that.

Also I've been rereading and I'm agreeing more and more with FTL's lynchpool.