Newbie 1497 (Game Over)

[Tr1ckster]

Alright.

...

Fudge.

Reformatting is a pain. >.<

Here's from the other game:

Pants thinks Neil is scum. No need to investigate him tonight if Neil's town. If Neil's scum, game over, we've got both scum.

Here's where we were in this game:

Look into Madonna x Aqua x BBT scum team. Try putting pressure on Madonna and see how the other two react

[Knell]

Nono, I meant I just copy paste your notes on all the players in this game, I'm done with the town slip discussion. Your alignment is worth more than hiding your motivations at this point. At least, in my opinion.

Would this a formatting problem?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I already read through your interactions before I posted the question, I don't see why you're reading him as scummy based on his D2 play.

Really? Allow me to do a quick timeline;

NM - Thor is scummy because he did 'X'
Thor - What? When did I do 'X'?
NM - Doesn't Answer.
Thor - Seriously, answer this.
NM - Well, you basically did 'X'
Thor - I think it's pretty wonky to even begin to suggest I did 'X' and even if I did, what possible scum gain was there for me?
NM - Avoiding giving opinions.
Thor - Like on what? What did I avoid giving opinions on?
NM - ...I looked back, Thor actually probably didn't do X - moving on!

You see *nothing* that I might find scummy in that exchange?

I don't understand why you wouldn't pursue a lynch on one of your scum-reads.

I have already answered why I'm doing what I'm doing - which part confuses you?

OK, so a mistake makes him scummy? You're activity levels did drop towards the end of D1 which I assume is what he was referring to. How this links into you being scummy though, I have no idea.

I'm assuming your second point is referring to the 'I like to see what everyone else does'. If so, I think everybody has contributed something since the beginning of D2, is there someone/something that you're not particularly happy about or that you're waiting for?

So, I ask again. Now that everyone has contributed, why are you not pursuing a scum-read?

[Tr1ckster]

Nono, I meant I just copy paste your notes on all the players in this game, I'm done with the town slip discussion. Your alignment is worth more than hiding your motivations at this point. At least, in my opinion.

Would this a formatting problem?

Ah. You mean my arguments for both their alignments and everything?

[Knell]

All of the notes you have on this game. Copy paste them.

[Tr1ckster]

No.

Lynch me if you want.

I'm not copy pasting all my notes from this game.

[Knell]

Then whatever you're willing to post of them, post them.

[Tr1ckster]

Hm.

I shall summarize them for you if you wish. It would be faster that way than rewriting them so that 1 - they're readable and 2 - they're not giving away information I'm not yet ready to give away.

[Knell]

I'll take what I can get. *sigh*

[theelkspeaks]

I see the request for a prod of me - in the middle of preparing a post but just wanted to say that I saw it.

[Zaicon]

Vote Count 2.3

Aquanim (1):

Knell

Thor665 (1):

Tr1ckster

theelkspeaks (1):

Aquanim

Tr1ckster (1):

Not_Mafia

No Vote (3):

BlueBloodedToffee, theelkspeaks, Thor665

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is Monday, May 19 at 8:30 AM CDT, which is in (expired on 2014-05-19 08:30:00).

[Aquanim]

...So I come back after three days and find a page and a half of mostly bickering?

Okay, let's try it this way.

@Everyone except Elk

: Explain why you are not voting elk. If you have a townread on him, explain it. If you think he's scummy but someone else is scummier, make an argument for why I should agree with you.

[Aquanim]

In return, why I'm not voting for any of the nascent wagons currently on the table:

Aquanim

- duh

Thor665

- Not voting for the first week of a day is distinctly un-Thor-like, but I doubt it's because he's scum and can't work out which townie to push; I think he could find an acceptable looking vote somewhere. Whatever his alignment, he's playing some game - so I'm giving him some rope. I can understand him being somewhat reluctant as a townie to hammer Belisarius but realising he didn't really have a choice... though I can believe he can mimic that as scum, so it's not indicative either way. Considering an early day 1 lynch on Not_Mafia was unlikely unless someone screwed up anyway, I don't think his aggressive vote "scaring" people off the wagon is scum-indicative.

I'm not sure now that I agree with the point Thor was making about BBT at the start of the day, but I don't believe that town-Thor could not have believed it.

Tr1ckster

- He has twice as many posts as anyone else besides myself, he's in no way afraid of being in the spotlight, his recurring tunnel on Madonna day 1 felt genuine even if it was wrong. I can understand him wanting to pressure Thor today over the hammer even if I'm ambivalent on it myself.

[Knell]

I have an absence of reasons to vote Elk for elk's posts, except maybe for his opening post, which I felt threw questions for the sake of throwing them. Having scum reads on everyone seems counterintuitive for scum though.

I can't make a good argument that could convince to vote yourself, without providing you worldly goods. However, I could make a secondary argument, for a lesser scum read right now. Not_Mafia, just by looking at the vote count(s) has, voted Town, Town, and my town read since the game started (and I suppose a vote for Thor). However, he would have had to have had his scum partner vote him at the beginning of the game. And outside of the vote count, I haven't really gotten anything that was incredibly scum vibey(except for a strange tonal shift on Tr1ckster near the end of the last day), I also agree with Not_Mafia that a Thor N_M team makes much sense, given their relationship so far, he referenced stuff to Thor that nobody but Thor would get and I didn't get until I started looking.

[Aquanim]

I have an absence of reasons to vote Elk for elk's posts, except maybe for his opening post, which I felt threw questions for the sake of throwing them. Having scum reads on everyone seems counterintuitive for scum though.

Having a scumread on everyone means that he can vote for anyone he likes and have it be consistent with his "reads". Given that he hasn't actually explained any of his day 2 reads, having a scumread on everyone is indistinguishable from having no reads at all.

Basically, I find it hard to believe that he sheeped you and me, his scum reads, onto the Belisarius wagon. If his actual leading hypothesis was that Madonna and I were a scumteam, why would he get off the Madonna wagon and onto a counterwagon I had started? Lack of confidence in his reads is a possibility... but not one I find convincing at this point. He basically threw all his reads out the window. As for his possible motivation for doing it as scum... a possibility is that when Tr1ckster got off the Madonna wagon, if Elk and his partner were both on the Madonna wagon he might have felt uncomfortable with that state of affairs. Obviously, without knowing the identity of the other scum this is conjecture. Or maybe he wasn't comfortable on the Madonna wagon for some other reason.

I can't make a good argument that could convince to vote yourself, without providing you worldly goods. However, I could make a secondary argument, for a lesser scum read right now. Not_Mafia, just by looking at the vote count(s) has, voted Town, Town, and my town read since the game started (and I suppose a vote for Thor). However, he would have had to have had his scum partner vote him at the beginning of the game. And outside of the vote count, I haven't really gotten anything that was incredibly scum vibey(except for a strange tonal shift on Tr1ckster near the end of the last day), I also agree with Not_Mafia that a Thor N_M team makes much sense, given their relationship so far, he referenced stuff to Thor that nobody but Thor would get and I didn't get until I started looking.

Eh... townies vote for other townies too. It's interesting, but not a case in itself.

[theelkspeaks]

I'm doing some looking into the forming of the Beli wagon yesterday, and going to talk about who was on and off the wagon.

Justification for why this helps us find scum: What do scum know but town not know? Exactly who's town. What do scum want? Town to get lynched. What do scum not want? Being tied to a town lynch. Therefore players who are either early on the wagon or off it altogether but still pushing it forward is one good place to start looking for scum.

The wagon actually started in post #544, when the (now confirmed Town) Madonna voted Beli almost randomly. Madonna wanted to take a closer look at me and Beli, as our predecessors had lurked a bit. In post 550, Trick advocates looking at Beli more closely (or at least tries to make him feel the pressure a little), then in 551, Trick asks NM how he feels about a Beli lynch, which furthermore at least appears to be him indicating some support for a Beli wagon.

558 - Aquanim also says he supports a wagon on BBT or Beli. Still just one vote (Madonna) on him.

565 - a slightly passive aggressive way of BBT calling Beli "less town than before"

Then Beli and Aqua bicker a while, and say it's either Beli or Trick gonna die.

Aqua eventually votes Beli for failing to meta Trick successfully with respect to uses of the word interesting. Seems like a rather weak reason to vote (maybe a side of Aqua being a little paranoid?).

594 - BBT complains about said Trick-meta

610 - Aqua says he supports Beli or BBT lynch, votes BBT

625 - BBT says that his read on Aqua has gone from scum to town because of Aqua's flipflopping (?)

647 - I have a nullread on Beli due to lack of Beli posts.

As of 683, Madonna is the only one on Beli. Aqua was on Beli but left. Madonna is at L-1. Madonna leaves Beli as well.

726 - Knell (After a long argument with Trick over the scum number mistake) gives up on the argument and wants to lynch Beli. no vote.

Trick is promising to explain his gambits on Day 2. As of this moment, he still hasn't.

731 - Aqua agrees with Knell and votes Beli.

732 - Knell votes Beli.

734/5 - Knell calls Beli demotivated scum, Trick immediately quotes and votes.

740 - Trick says NM is "confirmed scum"

749 - based on the arguments above and on the scumminess of 743 and 745, I vote Beli.

753/4 - Beli doesn't defend self, asks for intent to hammer

755 - Thor gives intent to hammer.

805 - Thor hammers.

Supported Beli lynch - Madonna, Aqua, Knell, me, Thor, Trick (6)

Lynched Beli (5) - Aqua, Knell, Trick, me, Thor

That leaves Madonna as the only one off the wagon who ever supported Beli lynches, and she's conf town.

Based on this review of the wagon, the scummiest thing I can find is the speed with which the wagon started. 3 votes in 4 posts. I'd not be surprised if at least one of those three was scum. My previous scumreads included both Aqua and Knell pretty high up, and I'd still believe it now, but that quick hop on with Trick, along with the 2 vs. 3 scum madness earlier, his failure to explain his gambits, and his generally reckless, ridiculous inconsistent play leave me feeling worse about him than about anyone else based on this reread of the last vote count before there was a Beli vote until the end of Day 1.

VOTE: Trick

[Aquanim]

Why is the quick start of the Belisarius wagon scum-indicative?

[theelkspeaks]

It was a wagon on a townie that started very suddenly, especially after he'd previously had a vote or two on him but they got removed. On the reread, the speed with which those first three votes went onto him feels a little like opportunistic scum. I'd inclined to think one or more of those three votes was a scum member realizing the Madonna lynch wasn't going to happen and choosing a target to make sure they didn't become the target. The NK of Madonna after a near lynch of her suggests scum guessed she was a PR. If scum saw the PR claim coming, I can see why they'd quickly mobilize to ensure a non-them target and ensure they could off her.

[Aquanim]

It was a wagon on a townie that started very suddenly, especially after he'd previously had a vote or two on him but they got removed. On the reread, the speed with which those first three votes went onto him feels a little like opportunistic scum. I'd inclined to think one or more of those three votes was a scum member realizing the Madonna lynch wasn't going to happen and choosing a target to make sure they didn't become the target. The NK of Madonna after a near lynch of her suggests scum guessed she was a PR. If scum saw the PR claim coming, I can see why they'd quickly mobilize to ensure a non-them target and ensure they could off her.

Well, of those three Tr1ckster was the only one who was in any real danger of being lynched day 1, as you say.

I don't think this line of reasoning lets you off the hook, though. Once Tr1ckster stopped voting Madonna, the Madonna lynch had clearly lost its momentum; at which point, any remaining scum on the Madonna wagon might "quickly mobilise to ensure a non-them target", regardless of whether they guessed Madonna was a PR.

[theelkspeaks]

I don't think Madonna being a PR is the key to my argument. My argument was made without the PR portion at first, but I added the PR part on at the end, because in my mind, that makes it even stronger.

[Aquanim]

I also think you're disregarding the reasonably likely explanation that all three of us, as townies, were okay with a Belisarius lynch but without an actual wagon present didn't want to "waste" our votes on him; once we realised that there was sufficient interest in a Belisarius wagon that a lynch on him might be possible we went for it. How are you ruling out this possibility?

Furthermore, do you think Thor is unlikely to be scum because he hammered a townie and thus took responsibility? I'd have to disagree with that; given the state of the day *someone* had to be hammered and soon, and Thor can always point to that as the reason why he hammered a lynch he was dubious about, rather than taking responsibility for his read.

[Aquanim]

I don't think Madonna being a PR is the key to my argument. My argument was made without the PR portion at first, but I added the PR part on at the end, because in my mind, that makes it even stronger.

I think your argument more or less falls apart if scum didn't guess Madonna was a PR, myself. If you imagine Madonna as a VT:

If Knell (or myself for that matter) were scum we could have waited until the eleventh hour and then hammered Madonna ourselves on the grounds there was no good lynches, rather than running off and wagoning Belisarius (who was in my opinion a less valuable townie than Madonna, and therefore a lower priority for scum to remove from the game).

A scum-Tr1ckster could have just stayed on the Madonna wagon; he'd committed pretty hard to that wagon throughout the day and not been suspected much for it. (It is possible that Tr1ckster might have preferred to sheep a mislynch rather than lead one; but in that case, why did he push Madonna so hard for the rest of the day?)

[theelkspeaks]

I won't rule out the possibility altogether, but I think it's the most likely explanation and furthermore the best I have to go on. And with respect to Thor, I consider his hammer an unlikely scum move (scum would hate to hammer town D1), but some other incidents in his play make me a little uncertain about him. I don't think Thor earned any scumpoints by hammering though.

[theelkspeaks]

I don't think Madonna being a PR is the key to my argument. My argument was made without the PR portion at first, but I added the PR part on at the end, because in my mind, that makes it even stronger.

I think your argument more or less falls apart if scum didn't guess Madonna was a PR, myself. If you imagine Madonna as a VT:

If Knell (or myself for that matter) were scum we could have waited until the eleventh hour and then hammered Madonna ourselves on the grounds there was no good lynches, rather than running off and wagoning Belisarius (who was in my opinion a less valuable townie than Madonna, and therefore a lower priority for scum to remove from the game).

A scum-Tr1ckster could have just stayed on the Madonna wagon; he'd committed pretty hard to that wagon throughout the day and not been suspected much for it. (It is possible that Tr1ckster might have preferred to sheep a mislynch rather than lead one; but in that case, why did he push Madonna so hard for the rest of the day?)

The Madonna lynch chances had gone to nil and there was going to be a wagon on someone else. The only thing anyone could hope to control was who.

[Aquanim]

I don't think Madonna being a PR is the key to my argument. My argument was made without the PR portion at first, but I added the PR part on at the end, because in my mind, that makes it even stronger.

I think your argument more or less falls apart if scum didn't guess Madonna was a PR, myself. If you imagine Madonna as a VT:

If Knell (or myself for that matter) were scum we could have waited until the eleventh hour and then hammered Madonna ourselves on the grounds there was no good lynches, rather than running off and wagoning Belisarius (who was in my opinion a less valuable townie than Madonna, and therefore a lower priority for scum to remove from the game).

A scum-Tr1ckster could have just stayed on the Madonna wagon; he'd committed pretty hard to that wagon throughout the day and not been suspected much for it. (It is possible that Tr1ckster might have preferred to sheep a mislynch rather than lead one; but in that case, why did he push Madonna so hard for the rest of the day?)

The Madonna lynch chances had gone to nil and there was going to be a wagon on someone else. The only thing anyone could hope to control was who.

I disagree. For starters, if nothing had changed about the wagons I would have hammered Madonna myself, which I believe I said at some point. Even though I had a decent townread on her, lynching her so that we wouldn't be discussing the same things day 2 would have been barely preferable to a nolynch. Knell and Belisarius had expressed similar sentiments, I think. If Knell had just said "I give up" rather than "I give up... but I'd rather lynch Belisarius", I'm pretty sure we'd have lynched Madonna yesterday.

There was definitely less interest in the Tr1ckster and BBT wagons than the Madonna wagon, and no other active wagons.

I'm not sure why you think that the chances of somebody getting lynched is "nil" when they are at L-1 and there are no other significant wagons.