Touhou UPick 2 - [Game Over]

[fferyllt]

Hi guys.

I've always wanted to do a "not reading this shit" replace in, and I think this might be the one!

[fferyllt]

Nacho and Muffin aren't at each others' throats?

In a day 3 with wtf no scum dead yet?

Are they inno children or something?

I guess I'll do some speedreading after all.

[fferyllt]

poetic license and perhaps a rose tinted rear view mirror.

What should I be focusing on in my catch up? I see from the last couple pages that vezok is claiming to have killed sakura. and somebody says this is lylo.

[fferyllt]

who do you think are scum?

what role claims are on the table?

[fferyllt]

I dunno what gif claimed. I have some weird vote ability I need to figure out. and I'm a rolecop.

[fferyllt]

also night 2 action failed.

[fferyllt]

I will have to find the joke.

Have there been other night-block reports?

[fferyllt]

should have sent the joke to gif?

lemme read that PM again.

[fferyllt]

yeah, gif rolecopped you night 2, and didn't get anything back.

Nothing about a joke. It wasn't an in-thread joke?

[fferyllt]

FG just PMed the joke.

A "walked into a bar" joke.

[fferyllt]

You really have no idea who could be scum at this point?

[fferyllt]

sounds like it's been a frustrating game.

[fferyllt]

something I imagine you know well!

[fferyllt]

I'm just skipping around pages atm.

I can do something too.

Dream Sign "Duplex Barrier" GIF

Ha.

What did this do?

OMG PAGE 80 Victor looks like SUCH a scumfuck.

(I can say scumfuck, right?)

"can" freeze or "must" freeze? (ie did you choose to freeze GiF's vote on you?)

Why are you voting notscience?

Must freeze. It's a passive ability.
I already used a spellcard that allowed me to confirm my flavor as Cirno, the Ice Witch.


I'm voting notscience because he's scum.
His 1v1 against GiF feels scum-sided and relies a lot on faulty information and exploitative meta.
To use his own logic against him, though, I don't think there'd be two neighborhoods that were completely town, and I have a lot more confidence that Victor is town over him.

What do you think about Victor now?

Also bork's slot has managed to stay in the null for day and a half, so i'm hoping Nacho can fix that.

The only thing I will fix is a lack of scum bodies in the thread.

I AM KAGURA

:/

@Sakura: I guess I see what your'e saying, but I just can't rely on meta in that way. It's too exploitable.

The thing that's wrong with your argument is that "If he can do that as town he can certainly do that as scum" if such a thing was true then there wouldnt ever be a way to townread someone other than cop innos and ICs, I could pretty easily go ahead and say "You may be playing to your town meta to fool me" but i've got an inno on you, which means I know you're town. Until notscience proves to me that he's capable of emulating his town meta, then his town meta is still solid, until then take a bit of occam's razor and think the simplest solution of notscience playing to his town meta isn't because he's emulating his town meta as scum, but simply, because he's town.

Is this a thing? Varsoon is cop confirmed?

Well the day aint ending right away so I'll probably get some content before I die. I might use my spellcard anyway for kicks. Varsoon knows what it does (don't tell them - at least not til tomorrow)

Spellcard: Cold Sign "Cold Snap"

What did this do?

TOWN:

SXTLHGaiden

- dead

Sakura Hana

- dead

VictorDeAngelo

Feirei

- how did he not die?

Malakittens

notscience

- dead

Varsoon

fferyllt

GuyInFreezer

blue stuff is my additions

How do you feel about the living players today?

Can I get a big ol' readslist off of you with a sentence or so detailing each read?

Town

Vezok - IC
Pim - The run up feels too similar to the TNE run up Day 1 (inactive player, little reasoning, general why not feel).
Muffin - Seems to be the most engaged scumhunter in the game.
Varsoon - Got a clean investigation Night 1 (probably nullified if Sakura is scum though). Sticking by this guns and not being pushed around which tends to be a good sign.
Nachomamma8 - I liked Bork's posting. Nacho has seemed to have read the game. Don't agree with all his reads, but townclearing half the playerbase on entering the game makes me feel that he's town as well. I would want to see more before I was certain enough to townblock him though.
GuyInFreezer - No great feelings off town on this spot but it's been so long waiting for a replacement I've almost forgotten that this guy is in the game.
Magua - The slot has been dead for most the game. Nothing Magua done thusfar has made me think he was town, but other than the bizarre me and ns being scumbuddies bit there aren't a ton of red flags.
Kagami - Less scummy than I thought on initial inspection but the miller claim still seems like
Gaiden - I actually thought this role was replaced. That's little impact Gaiden has had on this game. The whole mirroring vote thing day 1 was really weird.
Sakura - Not really liking her play, bad spot on the TNE wagon. Still waiting to know why she killed me with no claim (reckless at the very least)
Malakittens - Didn't like her predecessors play.

Scum

I think drilling Sakura for a case is a good idea, too, so keep at it.

If she doesn't produce it by days end I hope people keep on at her for it tomorrow as well.

The whole bottom of your list flipped town. What do?

Victor vs sakura feels like town vs scum where sakura is the scum.

What kind of course correction are you working on given night 2?

[fferyllt]

@ffery: That card stopped working yesterday. Why do you ask?

I want to know what you did to my slot.

Is there a reason this shouldn't be explained?

[fferyllt]

ZMuffin said GiF's action should have failed against him so maybe it wasn't a block.

[fferyllt]

Who do you think are scum?

[fferyllt]

Why is answering it in full a bad idea?

[fferyllt]

muffin do you know why GiF wanted to rolecop you?

[fferyllt]

Why did you send him the joke? Did you send anyone else a joke?

[fferyllt]

@ffery: it took one more vote to get you lynched. It was absolutely useless

I had the impression you thought GiF was scum or SK from my hop-around-skim last night. Was I wrong?

[fferyllt]

Nah he was town. I knew that before I saw the role PM.

[fferyllt]

Muffin is an extremely sensible rolecop choice.

We've already seen that FG took great pains to make the role names non-alignment indicative, and arguably non-role indicative, so your rolecop is essentially worthless. Testing muffin's claim is about the only use for it.

What is this in response to?

[fferyllt]

I don't understand what you don't understand.

[fferyllt]

Could be that votes stick to him.

What does this mean?

[fferyllt]

There is no Moukou in my list of players/characters.

[fferyllt]

What the hell is going on in this game?

[fferyllt]

Nah he was town. I knew that before I saw the role PM.

for someone that hadn't been reading the game, that's some pretty keen insight!

I iso'd him before I sent FakeGod a pm.

Over 200 posts in less than two full game days, a nice trollish start, and posts with lots of sharp, pointy corners. That's town GiF.

I don't always iso players before I replace, but so far, when I have I've never been wrong.

GiF is one I could conceivably be wrong about in some games. Not with this game's iso.

[fferyllt]

I'm concerned that with such formidable scumhunters in this game that it's been town lynches all up in here.

There are a lot of ISO analyses between me and solid opinions atm.

Seems like there are some players who really haven't made a strong appearance yet on day 3.

Apathy?

[fferyllt]

I'm thinking about Magua and Nacho.

[fferyllt]

I felt the same way about you, reading day 3 prior to my replace-in but you've been more engaged since then.

[fferyllt]

It was my impression of the day 3 posts prior to my replace-in. Seeing all the green flips in the OP, I expected to see some urgency at the start of this game day.

Looking back at your posts just now, they look more engaged than I originally thought, now that I've read the last 30-40 pages or so. And in fact I see urgency.

Also, I didn't see what the point of your fake day action was when I first replaced in.

[fferyllt]

what do you think about the TNE lynch wagon?

why are you interested in that wagon specifically?

thenewearth [8] - VictorDeAngelo, pieguyn, GuyInFreezer, Varsoon, Sakura Hana, vezokpiraka, notscience, SXTLHGaiden [LYNCH]

It's an interesting wagon from the standpoint Varsoon is claiming.

With the exception of victor ( who I believe is pretty town ) and GIF ( who I don't know what to think about) all the people on it were town.
I feel like in this game everybody is town and there are no scum.

Why do you believe Victor is town?

[fferyllt]

Game-state:

Vezok is an IC.
Sakura has used an ability that she claims is a delayed daycop (she gets result tomorrow) on Varsoon.
GIF is Aya, and knows all of our flavors. GIF can also vote for multiple players at once.
GIF has claimed to protect Sakura with a spellcard: 230
GIF has claimed that this was a gambit, and it's actually a selfprotect: 629
RB has claimed a double-voter whose vote builds up until he becomes a suicide king: 390

I have claimed to have some enacted a relationship of some sort with muffin. Muffin is aware that this has happened.

The rest is soft data from posts. I recommend starting with a GIF iso, and looking at when and why he unvotes a player. I agree with most of his reasoning so far.

Has the bolded been explained?

[fferyllt]

@ffery: The way he responded to knowing he will die. He didn't seem like concerned scum.

Also I'm thinking there might be only 2 SKs out there.
Does anyone flavor make them SK ffery?

I'm not a flavor expert. :/

Also, weren't the alignments randomized?

[fferyllt]

Yeah, that's super awkward.
You brought up the idea of an SK
before double kills happened
and now double kills are consistent
and you're like, "Hey, what about that"

What post(s) are you talking about?

[fferyllt]

Feirei/Victor

I've never played a game with Feirei except for 1 or 2 chat mafia games last year. I haven't meta'd him and probably won't.

There were off notes here and there in his early posting, but this one really pings somehow.

I um...don't directly engage people much anymore. I'm usually lynched for it because of my inability to word things correctly. I'm trying a different approach this game.

I do ask questions if I get one.

I've said this sort of thing as town (about changing my style, not about not directly engaging people), but almost always my resolve to change how I play fades in the face of a lot of flack for not playing like I usually do. But, most of the time when I've said this sort of thing I was scum.

@ RB:

I don't know what to think of that. I went to vote Bitmaplurker because lurking is scummy.

I'm this close to fucking lashing out at you because you can't be fucking arsed to read the goddamn thread. I ANSWERED YOUR FUCKING QUESTION PAGES AGO.

PAGES AGO.

RIGHT NOW, I'M VOTING YOU BECAUSE OF 3 FUCKING REASONS. READY?

1. You won't read the fucking thread.
2. You're pushing people FOR BULLSHIT REASONS. BOTH MYSELF AND VARSOON GET SORTED TOMORROW.
3. Your double vote is way too fucking dangerous for a scumfuck like yourself.

Tomorrow, we get to find out if your scumbuddy is Varsoon (unlikely, considering I'm townreading him) or someone else, depending on the result of the scan.

^^ This on the other hand feels like a townpost and a town ragequit. :/

victor, what are your actual reads? there's so much waffle in 1323 that i can't actually tell where you stand on certain people (e.g. i'm unsure what your actual read on RB is, and it looks like you have hanasawa as a scum read but she isn't in the three people you want to lynch today)

If you thought 1323 was waffley then just wait until I start producing proper walls

TNE is my top scumread, hence the vote. I would put Bitmap next, then notscience. Unless something major happens I won't be voting anyone else today and they can be town for now.

So here, all his scumreads are now known town. Which sometimes happens, but still. Bitmap had just claimed an investigative role and is next most scummy to him

Interesting fenscesit on TNE, worth looking at after a flip.

I'll let you revise your stance after your reread to be fair.

Back later

This post was in an exchange with NS. It has a bit of a foreknowledge feel to it.

Still not liking the day 2 victor posts after reading with more context.

[fferyllt]

GIF used a spellcard to save Sakura Hana. He's town.

Town: {GIF, Sakura Hana, pie, notscience}

notscience is town imo due to interactions from page 13.

I like pieguyn's argument on RB.

This is now up to pg 20.

These are phenomenal reads he did on catch up. All those townreads were town.

Who vigged bitmap?

What made you think this was a vig shot and not an SK?

[fferyllt]

No, that's what I'm saying--why are you SK hunting?

Is this to kagami or me?

[fferyllt]

Kgams.

Ffery, do you think Victor is scum? That seems to be were you're headed, but it's unclear to me.

Yeah. It's a very tenuous read atm, though. And I need to look at the bork/nacho and axxle?/magua slots.

When I did more catch up reading I got a stronger kagami town read, and noticed that gif was townreading her too.

Nobody claimed the 2nd night 1 kill, correct?

[fferyllt]

Ferry, can you confirm that the spellcard "Wind God Hidden Among Tree Leaves" is a self-commute?

Pretty much.

[fferyllt]

vote magua

If this guy isn't scum then the game ia trolling us.

Explain this. These cryptic comments from someone who has been in the game from the start, is mod confirmed town, and who should be able to help replacements understand the context are kinda frustrating.

[fferyllt]

Vezok claimed to target GiF on day 2 iirc. But I think it was a day action?

[fferyllt]

. Next-most suspicion would've been GiF but I want to see what ffery comes up, because I understand her questions but want to see her answers.

What answers are you wanting to see? Are there questions outstanding for me?

[fferyllt]

Ferry, can you confirm that the spellcard "Wind God Hidden Among Tree Leaves" is a self-commute?

Pretty much.

Ferry, is it actually a commute, or something similar?

I wouldn't call it a commute exactly, or I would have said "yeah, commute". It's something similar. I don't see a good reason atm to explain it in excruciating detail.

However, it wouldn't totally prevent me from being targeted at night if that's what you're trying to chase down.

[fferyllt]

Surprised?

[fferyllt]

Ah.

[fferyllt]

Waiting for

Godot

Nacho.

[fferyllt]

It is a ritual.

[fferyllt]

Current Status:

Town
Ffery
Varsoon
Victor
Nacho

Scum:
Kagami
Magua

Have you read through the part of the game where Sakura said she would vig Victor?

[fferyllt]

Vote: Kagami

I think town is pretty fucked regardless of we do.
At this point, I'm sort of hoping fiery is the SK.

You're hoping I'm SK?

You're going to be disappointed.

[fferyllt]

I'm thinking about Magua and Nacho.

Additionally, this is unacceptable.

You're in that sentence based purely on the fact that you've done basically nothing since you replaced in prior to this morning.

[fferyllt]

Frozen people?

[fferyllt]

I'm thinking about Magua and Nacho.

Additionally, this is unacceptable.

You're in that sentence based purely on the fact that you've done basically nothing since you replaced in prior to this morning.

Do you think that's a tell for me?
Especially one that outweighs bork being incredibly obvious town?

It's not a retrospective tell, but you not doing shit in apparent lylo worried the hell out of me. I basically didn't want to even try to sort out the rest of the game while that particular elephant took up a good chunk of day 3.

[fferyllt]

I'm thinking about Magua and Nacho.

Additionally, this is unacceptable.

You're in that sentence based purely on the fact that you've done basically nothing since you replaced in prior to this morning.

Do you think that's a tell for me?
Especially one that outweighs bork being incredibly obvious town?

It's not a retrospective tell, but you not doing shit in apparent lylo worried the hell out of me. I basically didn't want to even try to sort out the rest of the game while that particular elephant took up a good chunk of day 3.

Right now, the elephant is my predecessor, who you've not acknowledged as town beyond all town.

No I haven't. If he and I had some time together in this game, I'd probably put it mostly to rest, but I haven't and I've been bitten by giving out never-look-back town reads to predecessors and not fully weighing the current slot-inhabitant's behaviors. Bork is usually very easy to read as town. You usually get past me as scum.

So, no, you don't get a free borktown read when I replace in at LYLO.

[fferyllt]

It also feels like I was more an elephant to Varsoon than I was to you, which isn't exactly what you're trying to sell me now.

No, my first comment when I joined the game was something about you and muffin getting along awfully well given it's day 3 and possibly 4-3-1 or w/e.

I want you to be town. After I read through most of the game I wanted to say lynch somewhere within victor/magua/kagami. But, your day 3 entrance seemed pretty laid back and don't-care.

[fferyllt]

And if you are SK, I would HIGHLY RECOMMEND you doing so.

Town wincon means being sure of you matters. A lot.

[fferyllt]

This isn't exactly just a predecessor. This is bork.

I KNOW.

And YOU.

I don't like that you're trying to intimidate me into townreading you.

[fferyllt]

Because, you should know that if you're town I'll see it. Good chance that I'll see it even if you aren't town.

[fferyllt]

Why would you want to avoid me having polarizing thoughts?

[fferyllt]

Because, you should know that if you're town I'll see it. Good chance that I'll see it even if you aren't town.

I expect you to see Bork's towniness more clearly than you'll see mine unless stars align in a weird way, which normally doesn't happen unless I'm pushed off a brink of some sort some how.

Sigh.

It used to be a lot easier.

[fferyllt]

As scum? You get a strong town read on me in LyLo, that's cool, but very unnecessary.
You get a strong scum read on me in LyLo, really bad things happen.

Ok.

Now.

From my POV you floating into a lylo situation is scary as fuck.

You're addressing that.

Now, explain how GiF was anything other than town with a 200+ post ISO and literally all cards on the table?

[fferyllt]

[quote="In post 2666, Nachomamma8"]In order to get strongly town read as scum, you have to change your game up significantly, which means risks. Risks aren't worth the reward when you can get the same reward with half the risk.[/quote

This is probably a truism, but I don't see how it really applies here?

[fferyllt]

Because, you should know that if you're town I'll see it. Good chance that I'll see it even if you aren't town.

I expect you to see Bork's towniness more clearly than you'll see mine unless stars align in a weird way, which normally doesn't happen unless I'm pushed off a brink of some sort some how.

Sigh.

It used to be a lot easier.

Point is: easier with bork than it is with me. Why not focus on bork?

It is easier with bork. :/

[fferyllt]

As scum? You get a strong town read on me in LyLo, that's cool, but very unnecessary.
You get a strong scum read on me in LyLo, really bad things happen.

Ok.

Now.

From my POV you floating into a lylo situation is scary as fuck.

You're addressing that.

Now, explain how GiF was anything other than town with a 200+ post ISO and literally all cards on the table?

I don't think GiF was groupscum. I think he can play a strong day game as SK, have scary passives to back him up, and play an anti-town night game.

How were his rolecop targets anti-town?

[fferyllt]

So....

So...

I wouldn't read your slot entirely on the basis of bork without interaction with you.

And, the antagonism - the demand that I do so, rather than letting my read form as an amalgam - I dunno. I can see why you'd do this as town, but I think you can see how it's leading to a bad place.

[fferyllt]

Thinking more along the lines of the kill, not the rolecop.

GiF didn't have a kill.

[fferyllt]

I don't know what you mean by frozen.

[fferyllt]

so the vote weirdness?

I dunno.

let me look back at Sakura's results.

[fferyllt]

Not liking RB's latest posts, he's blaming Gaiden for deadline hammering which is what.... anyone would do to avoid a no lynch?
Also Varsoon is town.

Yeah, read through it again.

I was wondering if there was "not mafia" ambiguity, but apparently not.

I hate speculating on setup, but I dunno. Vote-stickiness more likely to be groupscum than SK?

[fferyllt]

But i had a choice to choose which one of you would be SK, I'd probably like it to be you since more town friendly and all.

By intent. But need to survive can twist instincts, as Nati's micro demonstrated.

It doesn't matter in this instance.

[fferyllt]

What do you think of the suggestions to nolynch today?

[fferyllt]

You're comfortable that Victor is town? because my lynch pool has been victor, magua and maybe kagami.

[fferyllt]

I agree that feirei looked pretty town. Haven't played with Victor before. With the game mechanics making for lots of day-events I'm not sure how much of my not-liking-victor-day-2 is wrapped up in that stuff.

I'm comparing Magua here to my memories of his play in pinnipedum. Hard to say because I knew his alignment but I felt like he was mostly suspected because of his predecessor and his play there actually looked pretty town.

[fferyllt]

I don't like the nolynch idea mostly because I'm worried that cross-kills could hit town.

[fferyllt]

Why is kagami your top pick for scum?

[fferyllt]

My "commute" is limited. I haven't wanted to spell it out completely but maybe I should?

[fferyllt]

Where did you get Victor as a bet the farm town read?

god the pedits

[fferyllt]

So you think town are you, victor, varsoon, vezok.

GIF is SK, rest are scum.

and I have a provable vote manipulation that I used on my partner.

You not reading the game thread for comprehension freaks me out.

It doesn't make sense as any alignment.

[fferyllt]

So you're a miller who could prevent yourself from being lynched by forcing an unexpected hammer, assuming stars aligned bandwagon-wise.

star alignment is more likely to happen when the game gets to smaller numbers.

[fferyllt]

lylo/xylo/whatever happened way sooner than I'd ever expect in a game this size.

If any player other than yourself gets to L-2 then you can hammer them, correct?

[fferyllt]

It seems insane to claim it at this point in the game as scum?

[fferyllt]

ok.

Can you move magua's vote more than once?

[fferyllt]

Nacho/Kagami/fiery/vezok

Hmmm.

Fairy: Does this make sense?

Does kagami make no sense as SK?

[fferyllt]

She's in minor danger today. More tonight if she's SK. But yeah.

I kinda think that's why there's so much noise about me being SK maybe.

[fferyllt]

Surprise LyLo also seems dickish.

True.

More true for groupscum.

Unless there's the "can't be used in LyLo" caveat, but.

It makes me a little nervous about my vote ability, which could be a good thing.

[fferyllt]

It means I feel like I'm being pushed forward as a night kill target. I'm not sure why those thoughts came out connected, except that right now SK speculation of all sorts give me that vibe.

[fferyllt]

Beyond what I've posted?

I have some paranoia about Nacho because Nacho.

I have some paranoia about Varsoon based on his play.

I think Victor and Magua are both likely scum.

[fferyllt]

same.

I can't see any use in my multi-vote today. Unless that changes I don't plan to put down more than one vote.

[fferyllt]

When I replaced in, I thought that I would be on fire with isos and stuff pretty quickly, but actually reading the game is depressing and confusing. ISOs don't make a lot of sense, and slipping back and forth into contextual mode makes me feel like "oh look a shiny thing" every page or two.

I think I need a buddy to talk with.

[fferyllt]

i think what makes me most uncomfortable about you is that i generally associate town-hunting with your town play and you've been more about "magua/victor scum" than "i think X looks town"

I think that's a factor of sheer numbers. 4 town, and probably 4 nontown.

2 town are basically dictated if I assume the varsoon investigation is good. That means one town among you, nacho, Victor and magua.

And that makes me hesitate to say oh hell yeah varsoon's town despite his play because Sakura.

So I'd rather focus on my surest bet to hit scum today and then look around tomorrow if I'm still alive.

[fferyllt]

oh and kagami. she's in the "one town" group.

[fferyllt]

Usually at this point in a game I'd be yelling for a full and complete mass claim. XYLO is a little different. And I don't know how the hell I'd weigh up claims for genuineness in this setup anyway.

[fferyllt]

heh. my name and the word "paranoia" make for an interesting search result.

[fferyllt]

So one of the things I look at in LYLO/MYLO, especially as a replacement is the attitudes players bring to the last game day, especially when there are confirmed town, because behaviors kind of flip around. Scum can smell the win in the air. Just one more mislynch. Town suddenly have to care a ton about being mislynched and fight/wriggle/avoid being mislynched in much the way scum do earlier in the game.

Unless the game is sunk in apathy. But, apathy is a friend to players who aren't town.

The only player who really seems to have any passion about winning is Vezok. Which is great and all, but he's sorted.

[fferyllt]

So one of the things I look at in LYLO/MYLO, especially as a replacement is the attitudes players bring to the last game day, especially when there are confirmed town, because behaviors kind of flip around. Scum can smell the win in the air. Just one more mislynch. Town suddenly have to care a ton about being mislynched and fight/wriggle/avoid being mislynched in much the way scum do earlier in the game.

Unless the game is sunk in apathy. But, apathy is a friend to players who aren't town.

The only player who really seems to have any passion about winning is Vezok. Which is great and all, but he's sorted.

mmmmmmmmmmm

what are your thoughts on #2817/#2819 then? because apart from the fact that me writing a town case on myself based on stuff that has nothing to do with play is the closest thing you'll ever see to a town tell from me (like, it is literally the only stuff i couldn't or wouldn't theoretically fake as scum because my scum day play may be thoroughly entrenched in WIFOM, but night play and role-based play i'm extremely methodical about as scum), it also falls under the criteria you just described as town play (unless i'm completely misinterpreting what you meant here)

I read it and I wondered why Nacho has you as more likely SK than me? Or whether he's jollying me along with that read? I'd consider your posts pretty bankably town in a less precarious gamestate. And his process of sorting me didn't seem all that rigorous.

and why am i not sensing any passion from you?

Because I don't have much atm? If we lynch scum today, then the game is probably decided by tonight's kills.


Maybe that's why overall the interest in how today plays out seems low?

[fferyllt]

The way I see it, I've already got scum. Not much sense making noise about it.

That's not usually how people get their scumreads lynched.

[fferyllt]

ugh.

[fferyllt]

If he did what I think he did, he scum-claimed.

Elaborate.

[fferyllt]

The reaction is funny, though, because while I didn't claim the card's ability or anything, Magua and Kagami should have both received a message letting them know their daycards are unusable now.
So it's kinda awkward that they both assumed it did more than that.

Why just those two? Because they're voting Victor? Your card is tied to his vote-freezing?

[fferyllt]

And you think that scum are more likely to vote for a frozen player?

[fferyllt]

*checks watch*

No, guys, you've still got plenty of time. Be sure not to strain yourself taking stances or actually commenting on Victor's complete lack of being quicklynched until there's only 8 or so hours left in the Day.

That's the sum total of your analysis of how their abilities interact?

[fferyllt]

Back-ish. Will post substantively sometime in the next 10-12 hours.

[fferyllt]

unvote
Vote kagami

Ffery why are posting stuff without reading the thread?

I am reading the thread. I'm mostly trying to confirm my understanding here and there, which looks inattentive to you?

I'm here.
We still need to lynch magua.

Then why are you voting kagami?

[fferyllt]

Cause wagon.
There are more votes on kagami than magua and both are scum.

ffery vote for kagami please.

What did you make of the posts starting at around 2781 continuing through the next couple of pages?

[fferyllt]

vezok, I'm far from sure kagami is scum. I think nacho's line of thought about her ability made sense.

I am going to vote magua today most likely.

[fferyllt]

VOTE: Magua

[fferyllt]

Actually, no. I don't feel good about this.

UNVOTE

[fferyllt]

kagami, do you see Magua's freak-out as something coming from scum?

[fferyllt]

Yes.

[fferyllt]

yeah... see, it's the last two words that i don't really believe

Well, doing some basic math here, there's me, and vezok, and Varsoon, and...welp, don't think Kagami's groupscum-but-could-still-be-the-SK-but-that's-ok-some-of-my-best-friends-are-SKs, so, let's see, carry the three, place the decimal...and, yeah, the chance of me caring what you believe are pretty goddamn low.

Because, again, it doesn't fucking matter if vezok and Varsoon don't do it, so even if you're the final Townie it don't make a goddamn bit of difference without the other two.

Ffery asking about my freakout over Varsoon's card now, rather, than, oh, I dunno, when it happened, is super meh.

zMuffinMan doing the math now, rather, than, oh, I dunno, when I or Kagami voted Vincent is super low.

But, it's not all dreary melancholy! I'm going camping, so am not going to be back until Sunday! So you don't have to deal with my doom-and-gloom repeatedly while you dither away into either a no lynch or a mislynch! Silver lining in every cloud, etc.

I've been on vacation since last Thursday. I'm rereading day 3 and getting caught up this morning. I noticed your freakout but the potential significance didn't really sink in until I put the vote down. Interesting how voting focuses the mind sometimes! The main reason I hadn't voted you earlier was because lol phoneposting.

kagami is suggesting there are still options outside her and Victor.

I dunno. Do you think I'm making too much of a deal of your reaction?

[fferyllt]

Yes

is that why you're unsure if he's scum? meh. could see that panic coming from scum or town, really.

Maybe.

It gives me pause thinking about it contextually.

what's your current read on victor, btw?

Hasn't changed. I guess what has changed is having more understanding of why Varsoon is so convinced he's town. Though, Varsoon's play still seems kinda low key. Trying to put my head into the perspective of biding his time waiting for the trap-sprung moment. Trap is sprung, now what?

[fferyllt]

3-2-1 won't be that much better. And that's assuming best shots. Actually 4-2 would be best shots, but that's just super lucky.

zmuffin please vote kagami, varsoon please do the same.
It's pretty clear now that the scum team is ffery, kagami, magua.

See you say something like this and it totally shoots down any sense that you have a grasp on this game and I stop wanting to listen to you. :/

[fferyllt]

Because although vigging sakura was an incredibly dumb thing for town to do, usually that kind of total screw up means a course correction.

How did Sakura flipping town change your understanding of the game?

[fferyllt]

Ffery: If you can't make up your mind just vote for both of them.

I don't think multiple voting is a good idea today.

At this point the only person I strongly feel is both town and making sense is muffin. He could be SK playing a great day game maybe, but I really don't think he's groupscum.

You're town. But you're quite simply no help at all in figuring things out.

Nacho - seemed too focused on the SK in his thought process 2 weeks ago or whenever the hell that convo was. Discounting that, I got a strong sense of figuring-it-out from his posts since I replaced in.

kagami - looks townish to me. I think I have some kagami-tells figured out now that I've played a game where she was scum. Which is worth...not a lot in a situation with 8 players and 4 of them not-town.

Magua - looks too damn sure in his reads to me. That's the main thing that sticks out about his play. I'm mulling over that versus the freak-out.

Victor - also has a level of sureness that troubles me.

Varsoon - doesn't feel as engaged or as will-o-the-wisp as I associate with his town game, but sakura's investigation.

I think the thing that worries me most is that if I take both varsoon and victor off the table AND it turns out they are both groupscum, then I have a 1 in 4 chance of randomly voting the one scum player in {zmuffin, nacho, kagami, magua}. It's more likely that no more than 1 of them is scum, which increases the odds to 50%.

And if I go with my strong town read of muffin, then the odds are better. And of those three remaining, Magua is who I most feel is scum.

[fferyllt]

I don't like the options you think are realistic, but I'd vote Victor over kagami. :/

[fferyllt]

What do you think about no lynching?

[fferyllt]

I don't think so? The lynch options are pretty constrained.

[fferyllt]

i was thinking about this a little during the week of downtime and i think this more than anything points strongly to one scum in {varsoon, victor}.

I can agree with this.
And I think the way Varsoon's ability-ness unleashed itself was pretty fucking town, to be completely honest.

It did. But it was kinda missing an "and then" aspect. I dunno. maybe that lack also points to town.

[fferyllt]

I was just getting comfortable with the idea of not voting at all.

[fferyllt]

What's your case for Magua-town?

The only tick in the Victor-town column is that Varsoon thinks he's town.

[fferyllt]

No, just his long-term town read apparently based on their neighborhood convos.

[fferyllt]

except that it's basically frozen town's options and we're sitting here talking about voting Victor.

[fferyllt]

trying to say that the ballsy move looks like it has severely constrained our options.

[fferyllt]

faint praise.

To answer your question, I don't see Victor ever making it into my town pile. :/

p-edit unpack that? I'm not following.

[fferyllt]

ok. But you're discounting that as the likely scenario?

p-edit that being magua setting up a 1v1 with the scummiest looking town?

[fferyllt]

30 minutes to go.

VOTE: Victor

L-1

[fferyllt]

Not sanguine, having so much trouble coming up with something non-ambivalent to say about the hammer.

[fferyllt]

I didn't troll. Not intentionally. I was pretty freaked about being suspected of being SK and expected getting NK'd would lose the game.

Aside from townreading Zmuffin pretty hard, I think my reads weren't bad. I suspected Varsoon and I wanted to lynch Magua first because Feirei's play had looked town even though Victor's hadn't. But there really wasn't any energy around lynching Magua. :/

This was a really difficult game to replace into at mylo. I would like to think I would have been more effective, and played better if I'd been in the game from the start, but I dunno.

When Victor flipped town, I figured Nacho was probably scum, and if there had been a day 4 I might have gone after him hammer and tongs.

[fferyllt]

Usually that alone means scum wins, unless town has a reason to believe there is a godfather (which we didn't).

I agree with you on paper, but among all the games I have played, in two games godfather got investigated as town, yet town won both games. (My first Large Normal and Bipolar Mafia)

I don't think there was a game I was in which godfather was investigated as town, and scum team won.

It's small-sample statistic, so I know it doesn't mean much, but I don't think godfather getting investigated as town doesn't necessarily mean it's an auto-win for the scum team.

I agree with this, but I learned mafia on sites where nearly every game had both a cop and a godfather (and sometimes a miller), and the rule of thumb was "trust no cop results unless a godfather flips".

The MS approach is to nerf cops in other ways, and I think it does lead toward putting more stock in cop results.

[fferyllt]

I love neighbhorhoods. My only concern with them is that they sometimes bleed off activity that really belongs in the game thread, which causes the rest of the game to suffer a little from the lock-out of info.